Agriculture in a world of change : proceedings of Outlook '91, 67th Annual Outlook Conference

802 Pages·1991·51.7 MB·English

by  Agricultural Outlook Conference (U.S.) (67th : 1990 : Washington, D.C.)

Historic, archived document
Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

Agriculture in a
World of Change
Proceedings of Outlook ’SI
67th Annual Outlook Conference \
U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C.
November 27-29, 1990

ANNUAL AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
United States Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C. 20250-3900
U.S.D.A., NAL
sep 8 iyyy
Cataloging Prep
PREFACE
These pages contain speeches presented during "Agriculture in a World of
Change," the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 67th Annual Outlook Conference.
Included are all papers submitted by those participating in the program and
transcriptions of several speeches and panel discussions.
The Conference took place at USDA headquarters in Washington, D.C., November
27-29, 1990, with about 1,000 people in attendance. Some 70 speakers and
panelists representing U.S. and foreign governments, agribusiness, and
agriculture participated in 25 sessions.
This book is divided into two sections. The first presents the outlook for
the farm economy and major commodities, rural America, food and nutrition,
and other related topics. The second includes presentations by a number of
distinguished speakers during plenary sessions related to this year’s theme
of agriculture and world changes. Topics discussed included the new farm
bill, trade negotiations, the profound changes taking place in the
international arena, food safety and environmental issues, and energy issues
for agriculture.
To purchase additional copies of this publication, call 1-800-999-6779 or
write ERS-NASS, P.0. Box 1608, Rockville, Maryland 20850. A separate
publication presenting charts used by speakers at the Conference, Outlook ’91
Charts, as well as audio cassette tapes of all Conference sessions, are also
available. Information about these materials and other publications of
interest can be found at the back of this book.
Recipients of this Proceedings will be sent preliminary information on next
year’s Conference, Outlook ’92, which has been tentatively scheduled for
December 3-5, 1991.
For further information contact Raymond Bridge at [phone].
Chairperson
Outlook Conference Steering Committee
World Agricultural Outlook Board March 1991
Room 5143 South Building, USDA
Washington, D.C. 20250-3800
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CONTENTS
Session Topic and Speaker Page
Cl RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND CREDIT OUTLOOK
Rural Development Outlook, Walter E. Hill 1
Panel: Outlook for Farm Credit, La Verne Ausman, Peter C. Myers,
and Kelly Holthus 9
C2 NUTRITION: DIETARY GUIDELINES, CONSUMER KNOWLEDGE, AND
FOOD CONSUMPTION
Fifty Years of Progress in the Nutrition Field, Gerald F. Combs 23
Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 1990 Revision, Betty B. Peterkin 35
Report on the Diet and Health Knowledge Survey, Linda E. Cleveland 46
Report on the 1977-88 Food Consumption Survey, Howard Riddick 51
C3 IMPACT OF SOVIET TRANSPORTATION ON U.S. FARM EXPORTS
Port and Rail Grain Transportation Problems in the USSR,
Michael Karl, no text submitted
Improving the Soviet Freight Transportation System, Robert S.
Scavone 59
Soviet Agriculture System, Terry Williams 67
C4 OUTLOOK FOR FOOD GRAINS
Food Grain Outlook, Edward W. Allen and Sara Schwartz 77
World Wheat Outlook 1990/91, Paul McAuliffe 91
A Competitor’s View of U.S. Farm Programs, Brian Fisher 106
C5 OUTLOOK FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS
Outlook for Dairy, Sara D. Short 113
Reaction to Dairy Situation and Outlook, James S. Fraher 118
The Dairy Industry in the 1990’s, Larry G. Hamm 124
C6 OUTLOOK FOR COTTON
Outlook for Cotton, Scott 0. Sanford 133
Cotton in a World of Change, Kevin L. McDermott 143
Cotton Price Stability and the Outlook for 1991/92, Terry
Townsend 155
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C7 FAMILY ECONOMICS: FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN
Clothing Expenditures of Single-Parent Households, Joan C.
Courtless, Frankie N. Schwenk, and Edith G. Neal 163
Child-Rearing Expenditures in Rural Families, Mark C. Lino, no
text submitted
Income and Expenditures of Two-Parent Families When One Parent Is
Not Employed, Mary Ann Noecker Guadagno 173
C8 OUTLOOK FOR AQUACULTURE
Outlook for U.S. Aquaculture, David J. Harvey 188
Catfish Industry Perspective, Hugh Warren 199
New Frontiers in Aquaculture, R. Oneal Smitherman, no text
submitted
C9 OUTLOOK FOR FEED GRAINS
Outlook for Feed Grains, Philip W. Sronce and Larry Van Meir 206
Energy Production and Other Industrial Feed Grain Uses,
Jack Kintzle 218
Grain Programs in the 1990 Farm Bill, Bruce R. "Randy" Weber 223
CIO OUTLOOK FOR FRUITS AND VEGETABLES
1991 Outlook for Fruit and Tree Nuts, Katharine C. Buckley 259
Outlook for Vegetables, Catherine R. Greene 271
Intra-North American Trade and Other Trade Issues,
Richard L. Barnes 283
Fruit and Vegetable Industry Perspective, Michael J. Stuart 297
Cll OUTLOOK FOR TOBACCO
Outlook for Tobacco, Verner N. Grise 304
Tobacco Cost of Production, Annette L. Clauson 313
Burley Quota Underutilization, William M. Snell 322
C12 OUTLOOK FOR FOREST PRODUCTS
Outlook for Timber Products, Robert B. Phelps 337
Impacts of U.S. Forest Management Policies on the Carbon Cycle,
Richard A. Birdsey 348
Carbon Cycle Impacts of Future Forest Products Utilization and
Recycling Trends, Clark Row and Robert Phelps 360
C13 OUTLOOK FOR OILSEEDS
Oilseed Outlook, Roger L. Hoskin 370
Oilseed Provisions in the 1990 Farm Bill, Keith Collins 377
Outlook for Oilseeds - Farmer Perspective, Timothy L. Price 386
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C14 FOOD: PRICES, HEALTH CONCERNS, AND LABELING
The 1991 Outlook for Food Prices, Ralph L. Parlett Jr. 404
New Product Development in Response to Health Concerns,
Carol S. Kramer 410
Nutrition Labeling: Current Status and Comparison of Various
Proposals, Donna V. Porter and Robert Earl 425
C15 OUTLOOK FOR FLORICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL HORTICULTURAL PRODUCTS
1990/91 Outlook for Floriculture Production and Greenhouse and
Nursery Trade, Doyle C. Johnson 434
Alternative Garden Crops for the 21st Century, Henry M. Cathey 448
Rising Demand for Horticultural Products, Paula Diane Relf 457
C16 OUTLOOK FOR FARM INCOME AND FARM INPUTS
Finance Outlook: Guarded Optimism, James Ryan, Diane Bertelsen,
and Kenneth Erickson 468
Outlook for Farm Inputs, Stan G. Daberkow and John Schaub 481
Industry Perspective, John A. Stark 492
Changes in Farm Structure, Thomas A. Carlin and Donn A. Reimund 500
C17 OUTLOOK FOR LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY
Outlook for Red Meats, John Ginzel 511
Outlook for Poultry and Eggs, Lee A. Christensen 520
The U.S. Beef Packing Industry: Changing Market Structure and
Performance Implications, John M. Connor 532
Meat Industry Competition and Consolidation in the 1990s,
William G. Fielding 546
C18 OUTLOOK FOR SWEETENERS
World and U.S. Outlook for Sweeteners, Peter J. Buzzanell 552
Changing Structure and Cycles in the World Sugar Industry,
John A. Desmarchelier 573
Market Structure Issues and the U.S. Sweetener Industry,
Thomas V. Greer 588
Low Calorie Sweeteners Outlook, Robert C. Gelardi 603
C19 CHANGING TECHNOLOGY AND REGULATION OF PESTICIDES AND FERTILIZER
Changing Technology: Pesticide Use and the Environment,
Thomas J. Gilding 608
Fertilizer and Pesticide Use and the Environment, Von McCaskill 614
Changing Chemical Use: The Impact on Producers and Consumers,
Otto Doering 619
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C20 NEW CROPS AND NEW PRODUCTS
Edible and Industrial Rapeseed Oils, Melvin G. Blase 624
Promising New Products and Processes from Corn, William M. Doane 637
Diversification of the Agricultural Product Portfolio through
Biotechnology, Ruxton H. Villet 648
PI AGRICULTURE IN A WORLD OF CHANGE
Keynote Address: Agriculture in a World of Change,
Clayton Yeutter 653
Foreign Policy in a World of Change, Richard McCormack 663
Questions and Answers, Clayton Yeutter and Richard McCormack 670
P2 OVERVIEW OF THE 1991 OUTLOOK
1991 Outlook for the U.S. Economy, Sidney Jones 685
1991 Agricultural Outlook, James R. Donald 691
1991 Agricultural Trade Outlook, R.E. Anderson Jr. 705
P3 PANEL: TRADE AND ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CRUCIBLE OF CHANGE
Carol Brookins, Corrado Pirzio-Biroli, Maciej Koslowski,
Curtis Kamman, and Richard Rahn 713
P4 FOOD SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL DILEMMAS: SEARCH FOR SOLUTIONS
Science-Driven Solutions to Food Safety Dilemmas: A Progress
Report, Jo Ann R. Smith 740
Scientific Solutions to Environmental Dilemmas: A Progress
Report, Linda J. Fisher 745
Consumer Perceptions on Scientific Solutions to Food Safety and
Environmental Dilemmas, Delia A. Hammock 754
Food Safety and Environmental Concerns: A Progress Report,
Enrique J. Guardia 758
P5 ENERGY ISSUES FOR AGRICULTURE
Concluding Remarks, Jack C. Parnell 763
The Current Energy Situation and the National Energy Strategy, W.
Henson Moore 771
Energy Issues for Agriculture: Challenges for Research,
Charles E. Hess 782
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SCHEDULE AT A GLANCE
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 27
Jefferson Auditorium Cafeteria Meeting Rm. 107 Administration
8:30 Cl C2 C3
Rural Development Dietary Guidelines Impact of Soviet Transportation
and Credit Outlook and New Food Surveys System on U.S. Farm Exports
10:00 Break
Jefferson Auditorium
10:30 PI
Keynote Session: Agriculture in a World of Change
12:15 Lunch
1:30 P2
Overview of the 1991 Outlook
3:00 Break
3:20 P3
Panel: Trade and Economic Prospects in a Crucible of change
5:00 Adjourn
5:15 Reception, Administration Building Patio
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 28
Jefferson Cafeteria 107 3501 Auditors
Auditorium Meeting Rm. Admin. South Building
8:30 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8
Food Grains Dairy Cotton Family Aquaculture
Economics
10:00 Break
10:30 C9 CIO C11 C12
Feed Grains Fruit and Tobacco Forest Products
Vegetables
noon Lunch (Cotton Luncheon)
1:30 C13 C14 C15 C16
Oilseeds Food Prices Floriculture and Farm Income
and Food Horticulture and Inputs
Labeling
3:00 Break
3:15 C17 C18 C19 C20
Livestock Sweeteners Technology New Crops and
and Poultry and Regulation New Products
of Pesticides
and Fertilizers
5:00 Adjourn
6:30 Sweeteners Dinner
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29
Jefferson Auditorium
8:30 P4
Food Safety and Environmental Dilemmas: Search for Solutions
10:15 Break
10:45 P5
Energy Issues for Agriculture
12:15 Concluding Remarks
12:30 Adjourn
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