Agricultural trade highlights

22 Pages·1991·1.8 MB·English

by  United States. Foreign Agricultural Service

Historic, Archive Document
Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

out JO ‘too/
Sr- «. AGRICULTURAL TRADE
S- HIGHLIGHTS a
Circular Series
ATH 9 91
September 1991 . '' rn
Agricultural Exports for July Reach Export performance with the top 10
U.S. trading partners was mostly up
$2.9 Billion as Soybean Exports Soar for July, with six countries advancing
and only four declining. Gainers
were led by the EC (up 34 percent to
Billion $
$393 million) and Mexico (up 45 per¬
cent to $316 million). Other
countries showing improvement in¬
cluded Canada (up 6 percent),
Taiwan (up 6 percent), the Soviet
Union (up 26 percent), and Egypt
(up 299 percent).
U.S. agricultural imports for July
amounted to $1.76 billion, down 6
percent from June, and down 2 per¬
cent from last July. July’s imports
bring the cumulative total for fiscal
1991 to $19 billion, roughly un¬
changed from the same period in
1990. At $1.14 billion, July’s agricul¬
tural trade surplus is $180 million
higher than year-earlier levels.
FY 1989 FY 1990 FY 1991 Revisions to the fiscal 1991 projec¬
J
tions as published by the World
uly trade statistics released on Sep¬ July exports of intermediate high- Agricultural Outlook Board on
tember 19 by the Commerce value products rose 6 percent due to August 29 revealed an increase of
Department placed the value of U.S. increases in all but two commodities $500 million in the forecasted value
agricultural exports at $2.9 billion. in this group. Strong performances for exports to $37.5 billion. Much of
This figure represents an increase of were turned in by wheat flour (up this increase is due to improved
10 percent over June and a 6-percent 117 percent), live animals (up 90 per¬ prospects for soybeans, soybean
gain over July 1990. The cumulative cent), and other vegetable oils (up 63 meal, and high-value products. Im¬
export total for fiscal 1991 (October- percent), for a combined increase in port value and export volume
July) reached $32 billion, down 8 value of $51 million. The most sig¬ remained unchanged at $22.5 billion
percent from the same period last nificant loss was in exports of hides and 129 million tons, respectively.
year. Export volume was also up at and skins, falling 28 percent, or $41
10.7 million tons, an increase of 32 million.
Inside This Issue...
percent over June and 12 percent
Exports of consumer-oriented
over last July.
products continued to climb, rising 15 Page
Exports of bulk commodities were percent, or $124 million. Gains were Commodity Highlights.3
much improved in July, registering a also widespread, with only one COUNTRY SPOTLIGHT:
mere 1-percent drop from July 1990. category registering a loss for the Egypt.5
Significant gains were recorded for month. Exports of red meats, tree
PRODUCT SPOTLIGHT:
exports of soybeans (up 84 percent), nuts, and fresh fruit led the pack,
Bakery Products.6
rice (up 42 percent), and tobacco rising 10 percent ($21 million), 57
Agricultural Imports.8
(up 71 percent). Together, the value percent ($20 million), and 13 percent
Trade Policy Updates.10
of these gains amounted to $168 mil¬ ($18 million), respectively, over last
lion, helping to offset the losses July. The horticultural complex con¬ Market Updates.12
registered by wheat (down 20 per¬ tinues to show its strength, rising by U.S. Agricultural Exports:
cent), coarse grains (down 7 per¬ $79 million in July and nearly $800 By Commodity Group.17
cent), and cotton (down 49 percent). million year-to-date. By Region.18
Weekly Quotations for
Selected Int’l Prices.19
U.S. Agricultural Export Summaries
October-July and Latest Month Comparisons
Product Summary
Latest month
Wood products 1/ Wood products 1/
Horticultural products Horticultural products
Feed grains Feed grains
Livestock products Livestock products
Soybeans & products Soybeans & products
Cotton Cotton
Wheat & flour Wheat & flour
Tobacco Tobacco
+ 42%
Billion dollars Million dollars
Top 10 Markets Summary
Latest month
Canada 2/
Canada 2/
Mexico
Mexico
S. Korea
S. Korea
Taiwan
Taiwan
Soviet Union
Soviet Union
Hong Kong + 13% Hong Kong
+ 299
China
China
Million dollars
Billion dollars
Note: Percentages are computed as the change from a year ago.
II Not included in agricultural totals. 2/ U.S. agricultural exports to Canada have been under-reported in past years by
about $1 billion a year and officially recognized by both governments. Effective January 1990, the U.S. Bureau of the
Census began adjusting US. export statistics to account for these differences.
September 1991 TEID/FAS [phone]
Commodity Highlights
$20 million), Japan (down $18 mil¬
July’s agricultural exports of $2.9 billion were up 6 percent from
lion), China (down $15 million), and
last July. Strong exports of soybeans, tobacco, and horticultural
Indonesia and Hong Kong (each
products more than offset lower shipments of feed grains, wheat,
down $7 million). Despite slow ex¬
and cotton. ports in July, exports year-to-date are
W 5 percent ahead of year-earlier
heat and wheat flour export Arabia, Peru, Brazil, and Turkey levels.
value in July of $264 million was were up strongly while exports to the
Horticultural product exports were up
down 16 percent from July 1990, but EC, Liberia, and South Africa were
18 percent to $521 million in July.
up 33 percent from the June export
down. Exports of rice for the year-to-
Exports of nearly all categories were
level of $199 million. However, ex¬
date are down 11 percent in value
stable or up from year-earlier levels.
port volume in July was unchanged
and 3 percent in volume as prices for
from the year-earlier level. Exports Although gains were seen in most
the 1990/91 marketing year are below
were lower to nearly all markets, with markets, much of the gain came from
both the 89/90 and the forecast
a few notable exceptions. Exports to increased exports to the EC (up
Brazil in July 1991 totaled $26 mil- 91/92 prices. $23 million), Canada (up $13 mil¬
lion-five times the total for the Oc¬ Unmanufactured tobacco exports of lion), Japan (up $14 million), and
tober to July period in fiscal 1990. $96 million in July were up around Mexico (up $8 million). Year-to-date
Exports to Egypt were up 200 per¬
70 percent in both value and volume. exports of $5.1 billion are up 19 per¬
cent to $19 million. Export volume
Exports to the EC were up 130 per¬ cent from last year.
for the year-to-date is down 5 per¬
cent and accounted for three-
cent at 22.5 million tons. Sharply Livestock product exports of
lower prices have driven down the quarters of the month’s increase. $432 million in July were relatively
export value for a drop of 34 percent Large export value increases were unchanged from last July. Exports to
from year-earlier levels to $2.5 billion recorded for the EC (up $30 mil¬ major markets were mixed with ex¬
so far this fiscal year. lion), the Dominican Republic,
ports to Mexico and Canada up $41
Egypt, and the Philippines (each up
Exports of feed grains in July of million, and $12 million, respectively,
$5-$7 million). Exports for the year-
$499 million were down 7 percent while exports were stable to the EC,
to-date of $1.4 billion are up 13 per¬
while volume was up 7 percent, down $32 million to Japan, and down
cent from year-earlier levels.
reflecting lower prices. Major $12 million to Korea. Year-to-date
declines were recorded for exports to Exports of soybeans and products of livestock product exports of $4.6 bil¬
Japan (down $106 million), Korea $353 million were up $125 million in lion are up 3 percent.
(down $25 million), and Mexico July from year-earlier levels. A $50-
Wood product exports of $509 million
(down $16 million). These declines, million increase in exports to Mexico
were up 4 percent from last July.
plus a general decline among most was more than double last July’s ex¬
Strong sales to Japan and Mexico,
other markets, more than offset ports. Other major export gains were
each up over $15 million, more than
strong gains by the USSR (up recorded for the EC (up $22 mil¬
offset sluggish sales to Korea and
$90 million), the EC (up $20 million), lion), Taiwan (up $15 million), and
China. Year-to-date exports of
Egypt (up $18 million), and Algeria Israel, Japan, Australia, and Turkey
$5.4 billion are unchanged from year-
(up $8 million). Year-to-date, feed (each up $7-$8 million). Export
earlier levels.
grain exports are down 33 percent in prices continue below last year’s
value on a 29-percent volume levels as volume was up 70 percent
decline. on a 55-percent value increase. Year-
to-date export value and volume are
Rice exports of $52 million in July
both down 15 percent.
were again strong, rising 42 percent
from last July. Higher export prices— Exports of cotton in July were down
up 12 percent from last July-have 49 percent to $81 million from last For more information contact James
not affected export volume which July. Exports were lower to nearly all Johnson at [phone].
was up 27 percent from year-earlier significant markets except Turkey
levels. Exports to major markets in and Bangladesh. Major declines were
July were mixed. Exports to Saudi recorded for exports to Korea (down
TEID/FAS [phone] September 1991 Trade Highlights 3
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Trade Highlights 4 September 1991 TEID/FAS [phone]
*
Country Spotlight: Egypt
of its wheat imports which maintain the 8-percent mark. This suggests
high levels due to the importance of that the United States has plenty of
bread in the Egyptian diet. This de¬ room to expand high-value exports
pendence functions mainly on in the longer-term. The United
USDA-sponsored export assistance States is often limited, though, in its
programs. In fact, two-thirds of all ability to compete with EC suppliers.
U.S. agricultural exports to Egypt Because of Europe’s close proximity
last year were supported by financial to North Africa, long-established
credit and loan programs. However, trading patterns exist with Egypt.
the GSM-102 program was The EC is also known to supply less-
suspended in January 1990 because expensive, lower-quality beef to the
of non-payment, and although it has Egyptian market which is preferred
not yet resumed, reinstatement looks by Egyptian consumers for use in
products, ranking 9th overall in likely for next year given Egypt’s im¬ stews-a popular dish in the country.
1989. Last year, the United States proved payment performance to U.S.
Highly-subsidized EC dairy exports
supplied one-quarter of the banks.
have also suppressed U.S. sales.
country’s total agricultural imports
U.S. bulk exports have not fallen Again, Egyptians are price-sensitive
of $4.5 billion, a figure which has
drastically since the suspension as and opportunities for more expen¬
risen substantially over the last
Egypt has been able to make pur¬ sive U.S. exports of butter and
decade. Unfortunately, several
chases in cash for essential bulk cheese are minimal. Some progress
market factors have impeded the
products. Cotton sales have even is being made with fruit and
United States’ ability to keep pace
risen and are expected to reach $100 vegetable exports. All-time high
with this growth, namely, under-pric¬ million by the end of this year—al¬ sales this year of $153,000 appear
ing by competitors and currency most three times the level of 5 years small, yet indicate good growth
valuation. However, the future ap¬ ago. Coarse grain shipments are potential in a highly-protected con¬
pears much brighter as Egypt likely to increase as well, topping sumer market. Many other con¬
engages in a series of new economic $190 million by the end of 1991 if sumer-ready products that compete
reform efforts. present trends continue. Demand with domestic production, such as
Since the early 1980s, Egypt’s im¬ for forestry products is also rising in poultry and cigarettes, are banned.
ports from the world have grown by Egypt. Opportunities for U.S. However, Egypt’s Ministry of
more than 50 percent. While strug¬ producers have improved as East Agriculture has recently initiated
gling to meet this demand, U.S. ex¬ European and Scandinavian com¬ major reforms. Rice is among over
porters have been most successful petitors have raised prices due to 100 products recently taken off the
with bulk commodities, supplying limited resources. import ban list and the government
over half of Egypt’s bulk imports in Unavoidably, U.S. exporters of high- is loosening control over meat, dairy,
1989. Australia and the EC, the next value products face harsh competi¬ feed grain, and forestry imports,
largest competitors, each hold less tion from the EC. EC competitors gradually allowing the private sector
than a 14-percent market share. control almost 72 percent of Egypt’s more involvement in this trade.
In the past, Egypt has depended on consumer-oriented imports, while More importantly, the International
the United States for over 50 percent the American share dangles around Monetary Fund (IMF) and World
Bank recently settled a reform
Egypt Implements Important Economic Reforms agreement to deregulate and stabi¬
lize the economy.
For the past several years, Egypt’s economy has suffered from a shortage of Restructuring is timely since Egypt is
foreign exchange, high inflation, and rapid population growth. However, expected to continue to rely on
recovery is now in sight as a result of aggressive government-initiated reform foreign imports for the majority of
efforts. A structural adjustment plan negotiated with the IMF and World its population’s food needs. The
Bank calls for control over the exchange rate to be lifted, a freeing-up of United States would like to turn
interest rates, and the elimination of most trade barriers, including price Egypt into a cash market, but in the
constraints on many public sector products. meantime, export credit support
In addition, debt forgiveness was granted by some allies in the Persian Gulf should expand the volume of trade.
War and a Paris Club rescheduling should further reduce the repayment
burden. Successful implementation of these reforms will bring about the
kind of free-market changes Egypt needs to maintain import levels for its For more information, contact Karen
growing population. Halliburton, [phone]
TEID/FAS [phone] September 1991 Trade Highlights - 5
Product Spotlight: Bakery Products
Last month, Agricultural Trade Highlights began devoting one characterized by a larger number of
firms of all sizes. The larger firms
section to reporting the performance of specific agricultural
tend to test market a product until
products that offer promising export opportunities. The focus is
sufficient sales justify production in
on lower-profile products that do not get much attention in that market by a foreign subsidiary
other FAS publications. These will usually be processed con¬ or partner. This strategy of moving
sumer food products that tend to be growth-oriented. Last production to subsidiaries overseas
when a threshold of sales is reached
month, dried breakfast cereals were highlighted. This month,
would imply a limited potential for
bakery products are being featured.
future growth of exports. In fact, it
B appears there are increasing num¬
akery products are widely pur¬ pessimistic estimate. So far this bers of niches for specialized
chased goods that are consumed year, bakery product exports are 20 products due to increases in income,
in one form or another in many percent ahead of last year’s record tourism, and tastes and preferences,
households throughout much of the level and should reach $210-$230 as well as less concentration of
world. While global consumption is million by year’s end. markets over time. Smaller
high, most of the demand is met producers tend to continue export¬
with local supplies. However, inter¬ The EC is the United States’ major ing to other markets because they
national trade statistics suggest that competitor in bakery products and lack the financial and information
in recent years there has been in¬ exports a wide range of high-quality resources to set up production over¬
creasing growth of trade in these products. The European product seas as readily as their larger com¬
products. tends to be less sweet, with fewer petitors.
fillers than are favored by American
Exports of bakery products from the consumers. They have cultivated As with many other high-value
United States reached $186 million long-standing business relationships products, Canada is a leading
in CY 1990, and are expected to ex¬ with their customers in countries market for U.S. exports of bakery
ceed $250 million by the middle of that were former colonies, or where products. With sales likely to reach
the decade. Rising incomes, popula¬ their influence was strong, such as $120 million in 1991, Canada repre¬
tion growth, growing tourist in¬ the Middle East. sents over half of the total U.S. ex¬
dustries in several countries, as well port market in bakery products. Be¬
as easing of some trade barriers, are Exports of bakery products cause of the ready access to most of
fueling this higher demand. As the regional Canadian markets
from the United States
recently as 1987, overall U.S. exports (geographic as well as trade access),
in bakery products were less than reached $186 million in CY many northern producers in the
$50 million. While American ex¬ 1990, and are expected to ex¬ United States can ship their product
porters of cookies, cakes, and ceed $250 million by the mid¬ to parts of Canada easier than they
pastries have enjoyed impressive dle of the decade. can to parts of the United States.
growth in recent years, the rise in Another advantage U.S. producers
world trade has been almost as fast. enjoy with Canada is the similarity of
Trade in bakery products would not
Over the last 15 years, U.S. market tastes. While the United States is
seem to be a promising avenue for
share in global trade for bakery the largest supplier to the Canadian
growth because of stringent fresh¬
products has hovered around 2 or 3 market--controlling more than 60
ness and demanding transportation
percent, and was as low as 1.9 per¬ percent--the EC is next with just
requirements over sometimes large
cent as recently as 1987. In 1990, under 30 percent. The EC is slowly
distances. However, over the past
this share increased to 5 percent, losing market share to the United
decade, products have been
and is expected to at least maintain States, but is concentrated toward
developed that are less susceptible
this higher level over the next few the most expensive part of the
to such constraints. Exports of
years. market. Hong Kong, Sweden, and
cookies, mixes, and doughs are
Japan are the next largest suppliers
In fact, recent FAS analysis suggests produced and packaged with a with only about 1 percent each.
worldwide trade in bakery products longer shelf life in mind.
could exceed $4.5 billion by 1995. If The Caribbean, led by Bermuda, is a
exports from the United States con¬ The industry that produces and ex¬ major importer of bakery products
ports bakery products is somewhat
tinue to grow at the rate achieved in and is the United States’ second-
recent years, the projection of $250 more atomized than most, in that largest market at $28 million in 1990.
million by the mid-90’s may well be a rather than a few large firms, it is Much of the region’s increasing im-
Trade Highlights 6 September 1991 TEID/FAS [phone]
-
...Bakery Products
port demand is due to the growth in near the border and involves cookies Japanese consumption patterns show
tourism, as well as the islands’ and non-sweet bread products. a preference (as in the United
limited ability to produce this type of Rising incomes and populations, States) for sweeter varieties of non-
food. They are therefore a much coupled with fewer trade restrictions frozen cookies, cakes, and pastries.
more important market than their and a desire for quality U.S.
size would indicate. While the level products, suggest this market may The "4 Tigers of Asia," Hong Kong,
of imports is high in these markets, just be starting to grow. American Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore each
their ability to grow may be limited tourism, which is significant and exhibit growth potential similar to
to the narrow base of the growth in growing, also adds impetus to this Japan. Individually, they are grow¬
tourism. Growth in American ex¬ rising trend, as U.S. tourists take ing from smaller bases than Japan,
ports may be tied to the ability to their sweet tooth with them on vaca¬ but combined, are expected to sur¬
gain market share at the expense of tion. pass Japan this year. Unlike other
the Europeans. While the areas of the world, competition from,
Europeans supply roughly half of the the EC is less pronounced in Asia.
American tourism ... also adds
Caribbean’s imports, a significant Competition in these markets is
impetus to this rising trend, as
transportation disadvantage may mostly from domestic producers, or
provide some opportunities for U.S. tourists take their sweet other Asian countries.
American bakery product exports. tooth with them on vacation.
The consistent rise over the last 5
The liberalization of Mexican trade years of exports to the EC are large¬
that began in 1989 resulted in an im¬ As with many other high-value ly the result of higher purchases by
mediate jump in bakery product im¬ products, the Asian countries of the the United Kingdom. While Com¬
ports from the United States. These Pacific-Rim offer significant growth munity imports from the United
grew from $500,000 in 1988, to $3.4 potential for U.S. bakery products States are likely to be a third higher
million in 1989, to $9 million in 1990. exporters. Relatively high and grow¬ than last year, sales to Britain are
So far this year, Mexican purchases ing incomes, coupled with a propen¬ likely to run 60-75 percent above last
of American bakery products are 32 sity to try new products, as well as year and could total $7 million. Ex¬
percent ahead of last year’s record increasing tastes for Western cluding Britain, sales to the EC are
pace and should reach almost $12 products, have led to Japan becom¬ expected to drop in 1991. U.S.
million. Much of this trade occurs ing the best prospect for continued bakery products face tremendous
growth in the next few years. competition in the European
market, as well as stringent import
"Rising" Exports of Bakery Products
requirements. The positive aspect of
Fattening Exporters’ Wallets
the European market is that its
sheer size and diverse tastes imply
Index 1\ that there are numerous niche
markets available for the savvy
American exporter.
Overall, the market for American
bakery product exports is promising,
especially since U.S. sales are still in
their infancy in the important (and
largely untapped) Mexican and
Pacific Rim countries. Canadian
sales, already sizable, should grow by
at least 10 percent per year. Al¬
though overall growth rates in the
Caribbean may be less than some
other areas, American exporters may
increase sales and market share due
to transportation advantages over
European exporters.
For more information, contact
1\ 1980 = 100
Thomas St. Clair, [phone].
2\ High-Value includes the value of both intermediate and consumer-oriented exports
Note: 1991 figures are estimates based on cumulative year-to-date performance
TEID/FAS [phone] September 1991 Trade Highlights - 7
July Imports Down From June;
But Year-to-Date Imports Unchanged
A
t $1.76 billion, U.S. agricultural port value brings the 10-month total sumers no longer need to rely as
imports for July hit their lowest to $14.4 billion. In contrast, noncom¬ heavily on foreign production.
level so far this fiscal year. Falling petitive imports fell to $4.6 billion,
Mexico’s year-to-date imports of
for the third consecutive month, im¬ but hardly impacted total imports for
fruits and vegetables decreased by
ports are down by $124 million from the year.
$39 million this year, lowering the
June, but remain relatively un¬
Leading competitive imports, beef U.S. total to just over $7 billion, of
changed from the October-July
and veal, along with live animals, ad¬ which Mexico now has a 20-percent
period a year ago. The decline is
vanced 10 and 11 percent, respective¬ share. Further fueling the overall
primarily due to decreased shipments
ly, from last year’s cumulative figures. decline, Brazilian supplies dropped
from Mexico and Brazil-their total
Imports of dairy products continued from $587 million in fiscal 1990 to
year-to-date agricultural imports to
to fall in July. Most of the 22-per¬ half that amount over the last 10
the United States dropped $35 mil¬
cent decline is due to a considerable months. For July, total farm exports
lion and $194 million, respectively,
drop in casein, a noncompetitive milk to Brazil amounted to $18 million-
since last year. However, total im¬
by-product for industrial use. only one-third of July 1990’s value.
ports from Canada, the largest U.S.
supplier, rose to almost $2.7 million Imports of fruit juices are also much Noncompetitive imports of coffee and
year-to-date. Competitive imports lower than year-ago levels, mostly cocoa and products together dipped
advanced only 1 percent from July due to a slight decline in orange juice more than 50 percent in July when
1990, while noncompetitive products consumption and rising domestic compared to a year-earlier total of
showed a 13-percent drop. orange production. Since the Florida $240 million. The value of Brazilian
freeze last year, U.S. producers have coffee imports was the gainer in this
A comparison of import values for
made a good recovery, if not as category, increasing by $98 million
the cumulative October-July period
strong as expected. Shipments from and moving 8 percent higher in
shows 1991 to be $37 million behind
Brazil, the largest U.S. fruit-juice im¬ market share. Tea imports increased
1990, amounting to a difference of
porter, have consequently dropped nearly 40 percent, signaling some
only 2 percent. A 1-percent increase
by 60 percent as American con¬ notable activity, but must be put in
in the competitive year-to-date im¬
context of their relatively small $11-
million base.
U.S. Agricultural Imports by Major Product Sector
July 1991 and Year-to-date Versus Year-ago The irony of July’s record low U.S.
import figure is Canada’s sizable gain
Import July July % Oct-July %
of $119 million so far this year.
Category 1991 1990 Chg FY91 FY90 Chg
Canadian pork shipments are up to
-- Million $ --
$339 million, or 45 percent of the
Total competitive 1,365. 1,353 1% 14,439 14,310 1%
U.S. pork market, while imports of
Fruits, incl. juices 154 176 -12% 1,803 1,929 -6%
live animals have risen to $589 mil¬
Wines & beer 153 156 -2% 1,502 1,502 0%
lion, almost 60 percent of the U.S.
Vegetables 146 123 19% 1,881 1,998 -6%
Live Animals 59 61 -4% 1,011 913 11% total in the category. With increases
Beef & veal 184 153 21% 1,672 1,525 10% of this nature, Canada should con¬
Dairy products 78 99 -22% 657 798 -18% tinue to hold its position as the
Pork 71 94 -24% 732 725 1% largest agricultural importer to the
Total noncompetitive 391 448 -13% 4,580 4,745 -3% United States.
Coffee & products 113 150 -25% 1,578 1,748 -10%
For more information, contact Karen
Cocoa & products 70 89 -21% 849 774 5%
Bananas/plantains 82 76 9% 812 699 4% Halliburton [phone].
Rubber/allied gums 46 50 -8% 563 587 -4%
Spices 19 22 -13% 219 204 8% Noncompetitive imports do not com¬
Tea 16 12 37% 130 130 0% pete with U.S. production and include:
bananas/plantains, coffee (incl. pro¬
Total agri. imports 1,756 1,801 -3% 19,019 19,056 0%
cessed' cocoa (incl. processed), nib-
Source: Commodity Trade Analysis Branch. Economic Research Service. ber/allied gums, spices, essential oils,
U.S. Department of'Agriculture, Washington, D.C.. tea, and caipet wools.
Trade Highlights - 8 September 1991 TEID/FAS [phone]