afrique economic outlook

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AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OF THE ORGANISATION
FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to address the
economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to
understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance,
the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where
governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and
work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies.
The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands,
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OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on
economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its
members.
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The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was established by
decision of the OECD Council on 23 October 1962 and comprises 23 member countries of the OECD: Austria, Belgium,
the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United
Kingdom as well as Brazil since March 1994, Chile since November 1998, India since February 2001 Romania since
October 2004, Thailand since March 2005,South Africa since May 2006 and Egypt, Israel, and Viet Nam since March
2008.. The Commission of the European Communities also takes part in the Centre’s Governing Board.
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The Development Centre, whose membership is open to both OECD and non-OECD countries, occupies a unique
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The Centre links OECD members with developing and emerging economies and fosters debate and discussion to
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Également disponible en français sous le titre :
PERSPECTIVES ÉCONOMIQUES EN AFRIQUE
© OECD, African Development Bank (2008)
No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications
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African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008
THE AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP
The African Development Bank Group is a regional multilateral development finance institution the members
of which are all of the 53 countries in Africa and 25 countries from Asia, Europe, North and South America.
The purpose of the Bank is to further the economic development and social progress of African countries,
individually and collectively. To this end, the Bank promotes the investment of public and private capital for
development, primarily by providing loans and grants for projects and programs that contribute to poverty
reduction and broad-based sustainable development in Africa.
The non-concessional operations of the Bank are financed from its ordinary capital resources. In addition,
the Bank’s soft window affiliates – the African Development Fund and the Nigeria Trust Fund – provide
concessional financing to low-income countries that are not able to sustain loans on market terms.
By the end of 2007, the African Development Bank Group cumulatively approved 3 174 loans and grants
for commitments of close to UA 42 billion (approximately USD 63 billion). The commitments were made to
52 regional member countries and institutions to support development projects and programmes in agriculture,
transport, public utilities, industry, education and health services. Since the mid-1980s, a significant share of
commitments has also gone to promoting economic reform and adjustment programmes that help to accelerate
socio-economic development. About 57 per cent of the total Bank Group commitments were financed on non-
concessional terms, while the balance benefited from concessional financing.
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© AfDB/OECD 2008 African Economic Outlook
Foreword
Foreword
The African Economic Outlookproject is a joint initiative of the African Development Bank and the OECD
Development Centre, joined in 2008 by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. The Report was
drafted by a core team essentially from the AfDB and the Centre, supported by resource people in selected countries.
A generous grant from the Commission of the European Communities was essential to initiating and
sustaining the project.
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African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008
Table of Contents
African Economic Outlook
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Part One: Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Part Two: Country Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
(cid:129)Algeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
(cid:129)Angola. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
(cid:129)Benin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
(cid:129)Botswana. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
(cid:129)Burkina Faso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
(cid:129)Cameroon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
(cid:129)Cape Verde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
(cid:129)Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
(cid:129)Congo Republic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
(cid:129)Congo Dem. Rep. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 5
(cid:129)Côte d’Ivoire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
(cid:129)Egypt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
(cid:129)Equatorial Guinea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
(cid:129)Ethiopia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
(cid:129)Gabon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
(cid:129)Ghana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
(cid:129)Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
(cid:129)Liberia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
(cid:129)Libya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
(cid:129)Madagascar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385
(cid:129)Malawi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399
(cid:129)Mali. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415
(cid:129)Mauritius. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
(cid:129)Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445
(cid:129)Mozambique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459
(cid:129)Namibia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475
(cid:129)Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 491
(cid:129)Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507
(cid:129)Rwanda. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521
(cid:129)Senegal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537
(cid:129)South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553
(cid:129)Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 571
(cid:129)Tunisia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585
(cid:129)Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 599
(cid:129)Zambia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 615
Part Three: Statistical Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 631
© AfDB/OECD 2008 African Economic Outlook
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
The African Economic Outlook was prepared by a consortium of three teams led by Kenneth Ruffing. The team at the
African Development Bank (AfDB) was led by Barfour Osei and Beejaye Kokil at the Chief Economist Complex. The team
at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)was led by Léonce Ndikumana, andthe team at the
OECD Development Centre was led by Lucia Wegner. The Outlook was prepared under the overall guidance of Louis Kasekende,
Chief Economist, AfDB, Temitope Waheed Oshikoya, Director, AfDB Development Research Department, Abdellatif
Bernoussi, Manager, Networking and Research Partnership Division, AfDB, Javier Santiso, Director, OECD Development
Centre, and Hakim Ben Hammouda, Chief Economist, UNECA.
The comparative synthesis of the report was drafted by Ken Ruffing (macroeconomic section), Lucia Wegner and
Christian Kingombe (thematic section). Additional inputs were provided by: Yero Baldeh, Jeff Dayton-Johnson, Thomas
Dickinson, Adam Elhiraika, Ki Fukasaku, Andrea Goldstein, Federica Marzo, Francesca Pavarini, Helmut Reisen, Audrey
Verdier-Chouchane, Susanna Wolf and Felix Zimmermann.
The country notes were drafted byMahamat Abdoulahi, OluyeleAkinkugbe, Abou Amadou Ba, Mohammed-Hedi Bchir,
Farid Benyoucef, Sylvie Anne Conde, Assitan Diarra-Thioume, Jeff Dayton-Johnson, Adam Elthiraika, Alain Fabrice Expo,
Gaston Gohou, Racine Kane, Kavazeua Katjomuise, Christian Kingombe, Federica Marzo, Ahmed Moummi (with the
assistance of Luis Bokung), Felix N’Zue, Oladeji Ojo, Peter Ondiege,Barfour Osei, Ben IdrissaOuedrago, Rasheed Oyaromade,
Taoufik Rajhi, Kenneth Ruffing, Mustapha Sadni-Jallab, Désiré Vencatachellum, Audrey Verdier-Chouchane, Lucia Wegner,
Susanna Wolf and the following research institutes:Centre d’Etudes et de Recherche en Economie et Gestion(CEREG,
Cameroun),Centre de Recherches Economiques Appliquées(CREA, Sénegal), Economic and Social Research Foundation
(ESRF, Tanzania), Egyptian Centre for Economic Studies (ECES), and Namibian Economic Policy Research Unit (NEPRU).
The work on the country notes greatly benefited from the valuable contributions of local consultants: Prince Agbodjan
(Benin), Fatima Zohara Alaoui (Morocco), Iharimar Andriamarozoka (Madagascar), Daniel Bambara (Burkina Faso), William
Bekoe (Ghana), Youcef Benabdallah (Algeria), Emilio Dava (Mozambique), Peter Draper and Philip Alves (South Africa),
Francis Gatare (Rwanda), Ousseini Hamidou (Niger), Aloysius Heagbetu (Liberia), Yaro Jinjiri (Nigeria), Serge Kpassokro
(Côte d’Ivoire), Oumar Makalou (Mali), John McGrath (Malawi), Michel Matamona (Congo), Alexandre Nshue Mokime
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(Democratic Republic of Congo), Patrick Musila Mwaniki (Kenya), Chiwama Musonda (Zambia), Joel Muzima (Mozambique),
E.S.K. Muwanga-Zake (Uganda), Tabo Symphorien Ndang (Chad), Modeste Mfa Obiang (Gabon), Adesida Olugbenga (Cape
Verde), Alves da Rocha (Angola), Sawkut Ally Rojid (Mauritius), Happy Siphambe (Botswana), and Abderrazak Zouari (Tunisia).
The committee of peer reviewers of the country notes included: Maria João Azevedo, Sylvain Dessy, Paul Koffi Koffi,
Anne-Marie Geourjon, and Stephen Golub.
Valuable statistical inputs were provided by Hilaire Kadisha, Koua Louis Kouakou Fetor Komlan, and Nirina Letsara at
the AfDB Statistics Department. At the UNECA, Dawit Birhanu,Tsedale Demissie, Moctar Diouf, Laureline Pla, Abiola
Sunmonu, and Sylvie Umuhoza provided research assistance while Theresa Ouedraogo provided administrative support.
The macroeconomic framework used to produce the forecasting was updated and managed by Federica Marzo at the
OECD Development Centre and Beejaye Kokil at the African Development Bank. The statistical annex is the product of a
joint work carried out by Beejaye Kokil and Federica Marzo, with the support of Christian Kingombe.
The project also benefited fromthe assistance provided by Ralph Christian Maloumby-Baka and Yvette Chanvoédou,
and Thomas Dickinson at the OECD Development Centre and Rhoda Bangurah and Nelson Abiana, at the AfDB
Development Research Department. Michèle Girard, Librarian at the OECD Development Centre, was also of assistance.
The country maps were produced by Roland Pourtier. The maps and diagrams used in this publication in no way imply
recognition of any states or political boundaries by the African Development Bank Group, the European Union, the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Development Centre or the authors.
A large number of African government representatives, private-sector colleagues and civil society members provided extremely
valuable inputs and comments, including all the participants in the joint AfDB/OECD Development Centre expert meeting
on Technical and Vocational Skills Development. Several institutions also contributed to the project at various stages: the
AfDB country operations departments, the AfDB Human ResourcesDepartment, the Agence Française de Développement
and the Groupe Experts Formation Professionnelle (GEFOP), the African Partnership Forum Support Unit, the European
Commission delegations in Africa, The European Training Foundation, the Heiligendamm Dialogue Process Support Unit,
the ILO Skills and Employability Department, the OECD Economics Department, the OECD Development Co-operation
Directorate, the OECD Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, the UNESCO UNEVOC International Centre for
Technical and Vocational Education and Training,and the World Bank Economic and Prospects Group.
The OECD Development Centre’s Publications/MediaUnit, led by Colm Foy and Sheila Lionet, was responsible for
transforming the manuscript into the publication.
African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008
Preface
Preface
This seventh edition of the African Economic Outlookmarks a turning point. Not only has primary responsibility
for the project been transferred from the OECD Development Centre to the African Development Bank, but
we have a new partner,the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). In addition, we have
invited independent research institutes in several African nations to join us in preparing country studies and to
participate in the dissemination activities of the AEO.
The African Economic Outlookthus moves into a new stage of maturity and its already considerable reputation
and standing can only benefit. Indeed, the AEO is now a permanent feature of the African socio-economic literature
and we are proud to carry it forward together. This year’s edition sees a further increase in the coverage of the
continent to 35 countries, up from 31 in 2007, covering 87 per cent of Africa’s population and 95 per cent of
its economic output. This is a significant achievement, but our hope is that the country coverage will continue
to be extended until it ultimately covers the entire continent.
Growth in Africa is estimated to have been 5.7 per cent in 2007, the fourth consecutive year with growth
above 5 per cent. Moreover, that trend is expected to continue at slightly higher levels – 5.9 per cent – over the
next two years, the limit of the current AEO’s forecasts. Prospects are, therefore, favourable for the continent
overall. At the level of individual countries, however, there are marked differences between the oil-exporters and
the others. The former group continues to benefit from the boom in oil exports and persistently high prices,
though production in some countries is either already falling or set to do so. The challenge remains for this group
of African countries to invest in the future through improved infrastructure and services including education,
training and health. For the oil importers, once again the outlook is somewhat less favourable, although many
of them, particularly exporters of minerals, are also doing well. Nonetheless, most of them must either contain
or finance expanding current account deficits which have been heavily impacted by increases in the international
prices of food and fuel. Both groups of countries need to make greater efforts to contain inflation which has
begun to tick upwards. Within each group of countries the largest factor explaining different performances appears
to be the quality of governance.
Elsewhere, the economy is at risk from unresolved or new crises caused by the breakdown in governance structures
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or continuing competition for scarce resources. There have been positive moves by international organisations,
including the African Union and the African Development Bank, to help bring an end to conflict, but its
resolution will also require the goodwill of African leaders in government and in opposition. The continent’s
political leaders will need to show more maturity and more forbearance if we are to see an end to political
disruption, armed conflict and displaced populations. This remains Africa’s greatest challenge.
The 2008 AEO sheds its spotlight on technical and vocational skills development (TVSD). Despite the
increasing recognition that higher technical and vocational skills are crucial in enhancing competitiveness and
contributing to social inclusion, decent employment, and poverty reduction, our country reviews,backed up by
independent experts, show that technical and vocational systems in Africa remain influenced by multiple
constraints that limit their expansion and impact. Fewer than 5 per cent of secondary school students are enrolled
in technical and vocational programmes, which is very low compared to other regions, and their share in
educational budgets is only about 2 to 6 per cent. Few countries have training policies which emphasise skills
development in the informal sector, the largest employer and provider of training in Africa.
The report demonstrates that opportunities offered by the private-enterprise sector, including that part of
what is generally called “informal”, hold the most promise for the training of Africa’s youth and the next generation
of entrepreneurs likely to provide employment and prosperity.
At the same time, many countries are reforming their training systems to adapt them better to the needs of
both the formal and the informal labour markets, and are introducing or strengthening partnerships between
school-based training and apprenticeships in both the formal and informal sectors. These reforms must continue
and become generalised.
It is our hope that such initiatives, supported by responsible governments and the international community,
will contribute to African countries’ continued progress, documented in this year’s African Economic Outlook.
Donald Kaberuka, Javier Santiso, Abdoulie Janneh,
President, Director, Executive Secretary,
African Development Bank, OECD Development Centre, United Economic Commission
Tunis Paris for Africa,
Addis Ababa.
April 2008
© AfDB/OECD 2008 African Economic Outlook

Part One