African economic outlook 2005/2006.

588 Pages·2006·13.356 MB·English

by  OECD

African
Economic Outlook
AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OF THE ORGANISATION
FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
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France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands,
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members.
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The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was established by
decision of the OECD Council on 23rd October 1962 and comprises twenty-one member countries of the OECD:
Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Luxembourg,
Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey, as well as Chile
since November 1998, India since February 2001, Romania since October 2004, Thailand since March 2005, Brazil
since April 2005 and South Africa since April 2006. The European Commission also takes part in the Centre’s
Governing Board.
The purpose of the Centre is to bring together the knowledge and experience available in member countries of both
economic development and the formulation and execution of general economic policies; to adapt such knowledge and
experience to the actual needs of countries or regions in the process of development and to put the results at the disposal
of the countries by appropriate means.
The Centre is part of the “Development Cluster” at the OECD and enjoys scientific independence in the execution
of its task. As part of the Cluster, together with the Centre for Co-operation with non members, the Development Co-
operation Directorate, and the Sahel and West Africa Club, the Development Centre can draw upon the experience
and knowledge available in the OECD of the development field.
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Également disponible en français sous le titre :
PERSPECTIVES ÉCONOMIQUES EN AFRIQUE
© OECD, African Development Bank (2006)
No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications
should be sent to OECD Publishing: [email protected] by fax [phone]. Permission to photocopy a portion of this
work should be addressed to the Centre Français d’exploitation du droit de Copie, 20 rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris,
France ([email protected]).
African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2006
THE AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP
The African Development Bank Group is a regional multilateral development finance institution the members
of which are all of the 53 countries in Africa and 25 countries from Asia, Europe, North and South America.
The purpose of the Bank is to further the economic development and social progress of African countries,
individually and collectively. To this end, the Bank promotes the investment of public and private capital for
development, primarily by providing loans and grants for projects and programs that contribute to poverty
reduction and broad-based sustainable development in Africa.
The non-concessional operations of the Bank are financed from its ordinary capital resources. In addition,
the Bank’s soft window affiliates – the African Development Fund and the Nigeria Trust Fund – provide
concessional financing to low-income countries that are not able to sustain loans on market terms.
By the end of 2005, the African Development Bank Group cumulatively approved 2 988 loans and grants
for commitments of close to $50 billion. The commitments were made to 52 regional member countries and
institutions to support development projects and programs in agriculture, transport, public utilities, industry,
education, and health sectors. Since the mid-1980s, a significant share of commitments has also gone to promoting
economic reform and adjustment programs that help to accelerate socio-economic development. About 60 per
cent of total Bank Group commitments were financed on non-concessional terms, while the balance benefited
from concessional financing. 3
© AfDB/OECD 2006 African Economic Outlook
Foreword
Foreword
The African Economic Outlookproject is a joint initiative of the African Development Bank and the OECD
Development Centre. The Report was essentially drafted by a core team drawn from both institutions, supported
by resource people in selected countries.
A generous grant from the Commission of the European Communities was essential to initiating and
sustaining the project.
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African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2006
Table of Contents
African Economic Outlook
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Part One: Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Part Two: Country Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
•Algeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
•Angola. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
•Benin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
•Botswana. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
•Burkina Faso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
•Cameroon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
•Chad. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
•Congo Republic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 5
•Congo Dem. Rep. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
•Côte d’Ivoire. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
•Egypt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
•Ethiopia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257
•Gabon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
•Ghana. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
•Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
•Madagascar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
•Malawi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
•Mali. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
•Mauritius. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
•Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
•Mozambique. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385
•Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401
•Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417
•Rwanda. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
•Senegal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445
•South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459
•Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475
•Tunisia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 491
•Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505
•Zambia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519
Part Three: Statistical Annex. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537
© AfDB/OECD 2006 African Economic Outlook
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
The African Economic Outlook was prepared by a team led by Kenneth Ruffing. In addition to the manager,
the core team was composed of Barfour Osei, Mohammed Salisu, Désiré Vencatachellum, Bernhard Gunter, Lassaad
Lachaal, Audrey Verdier-Chouchane, and Beejaye Kokil at the Development Research Department of the African
Development Bank and Céline Kauffmann, Lucia Wegner, Nicolas Pinaud, Federica Marzo, and Andrea Goldstein
at the OECD Development Centre.
The comparative synthesis of the Report was drafted by Andrea Goldstein, Kenneth Ruffing and
Lucia Wegner with inputs from: Bernhard Gunter, Lassaad Lachaal, Cengiz Orun and Audrey Verdier-Chouchane.
The country notes were drafted by Federico Bonaglia, Thomas Bossuroy, Jeff Dayton-Johnson,
Donata Gnisci, Andrea Goldstein, Bernhard Gunter, Lassaad Lachaal, Bernard Laporte, Federica Marzo,
Ida Mc Donnell, Felix N’Zue, Barfour Osei, Nicolas Pinaud, Mohammed Salisu, Henri-Bernard Solignac
Lecomte, Désiré Vencatachellum, Audrey Verdier-Chouchane, Lucia Wegner, and Theodora Xenogiani.
The work on the country notes greatly benefited from the valuable contributions of local consultants:
Rose Aiko (Tanzania), Gaotlhobogwe Ramotho (Bostswana), William Bekoe (Ghana), Abderrazak Zouari
(Tunisia), Youcef Benabdallah (Algeria), Tabo Symphorien Ndang (Chad), Carlos Nuno Castel-Branco
(Mozambique), Alves da Rocha (Angola), Ahmed Gonheim (Egypt), Stephen Hanival (South Africa),
Eric Hazard (Senegal), Yaro Jinjiri (Nigeria), Serge Kpassokro (Côte d’Ivoire),Teigist Lemma (Ethiopia),
Oumar Makalou (Mali), Michel Matamona (Congo), Thierry Mutombo (Democratic Republic of Congo),
Patrick Musila Mwaniki (Kenya), E.S.K. Muwanga-Zake (Uganda), Robert Ngonthe (Cameroun),
6 Francis Gatare (Rwanda), Chiwama Musonda (Zambia), Modeste Mfa Obiang (Gabon), Trevor Simumba
(Zambia) and Abdoulaye Zonon (Burkina Faso).
The committee of peer reviewers of the country notes included: Sylvain Dessy, Charlotte B. De Toit,
Paul Koffi Koffi, Anne-Marie Geourjon, Stephen Golub.
Valuable statistical inputs were provided by Hilaire Kadisha, Koua Louis Kouakou and Fetor Komlan at the
ADB Development Research Department.
The macroeconomic framework used to produce the predictions was updated and managed by
Céline Kauffmann and Federica Marzo at the OECD Development Centre and Beejaye Kokil at the African
Development Bank. The statistical annex is the product of a joint work carried out by Beejaye Kokil and
Federica Marzo.
The project also benefited from inputs from Laurent Bossard, Hélène Djoufelkit-Cottenet, and Kiichiro Fukasaku
and crucial research assistance provided by Aleksandra Bogusz and Ly Na Dollon at the OECD Development
Centre and Rhoda Bangurah, Mboya De Loubassou, Koua Louis Kouakou and Fetor Komlan at the AfDB
Development Research Department. Michèle Alkilic-Girard, Librarian at the OECD Development Centre, was
also of assistance.
The country maps were produced by Roland Pourtier with the gracious collaboration of INICA (Initiative
for Central Africa). The maps and diagrams used in this publication in no way imply recognition of any states
or political boundaries by the African Development Bank Group, the European Union, the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development, the Development Centre or the authors.
A large number of African government representatives, private sector colleagues and civil society members
provided extremely valuable inputs and comments. Several institutions also contributed to the project at various
stages: the AfDB country operations departments, the Agence Française de Développement, the European
Commission delegations in Africa (in particular Massimo Pronio), the OECD Economics Department, the
OECD Development Co-operation Directorate, the Sahel and West Africa Club and the World Bank Economic
and Prospects Group. The OECD Development Centre’s Communication Unit, led by Colm Foy and Sheila
Lionet, was responsible for transforming the manuscript into the publication.
The Outlook was prepared under the overall guidance of Javier Santiso, Chief Development Economist, OECD
Development Centre and Henock Kifle, Director of the Cabinet to the President, and Charles Leyeka Lufumpa,
Acting Director, AfDB Development Research Department.
African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2006
Preface
Preface
This fifth edition of our joint African Economic Outlookcontinues to provide an insightful, broad overview
of the economies of Africa. We are pleased to observe the steadily growing importance that public opinion and
policy makers attach to theAEO. Our two institutions are proud to come together in making this contribution
to enhancing understanding of the continent.
For most African countries the prospects of attaining the Millennium Development Goals remain a challenge.
This year’s AEO,however, does find some grounds for optimism as many countries saw their economic performance
improve in 2005 as a result of favourable commodity prices, increased aid flows, debt forgiveness and on-going
reforms which have started to bear fruit. Macroeconomic stability was by and large maintained despite the
increase in fuel and food prices. Mobilisation for reforms has played a part in this rise in optimism; so has the
growing support of the international community, which has been given added impetus by the Commission on
Africa and the Gleneagles G8 Summit.
While prospects for much of Africa are more favourable than they have been in the recent past, human security
continues to be severely affected by weak governance structures, conflicts and the vulnerability that accompanies
extreme poverty. This is deterring investment and impeding the effective entry of African countries into the global
economy. 7
We are glad to note that the first of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) reviews was completed in
January 2006 signifying continued efforts to improve governance. Resource-rich countries will need to ensure
that a substantial part of the windfall gains, now accruing to their treasuries due to favourable terms of trade, is
invested in infrastructure and human capital development to support their medium- and long-term development.
The 2005/2006 AEO highlights the issue of infrastructure. The weak state of infrastructure and the poor
quality of service, increase costs of doing business and hamper private sector development in Africa. Attempts
over the last decade to upgrade infrastructure and encourage private-sector participation have shown their limits.
Both African governments and the donor community will need to continue developing innovative approaches
for raising additional public and private resources to provide better transport infrastructure to the peoples of
Africa.
The year 2005 has been called the “Year of Africa”. Many African governments have taken promising steps
towards restructuring their countries’ economies. In many countries, democracy is becoming deeply rooted, leading
in turn to increased participation by civil society in the political process. Supported by the NEPAD initiative,
under the auspices of the African Union, substantial progress has been achieved towards regional co-operation.
Furthermore, there seems to be a resurgent commitment on the part of the international community to support
Africa for a “big push”. These developments augur well for the future.
Donald Kaberuka Louka T. Katseli
President of the African Development Bank Director, OECD Development Centre
Tunis Paris
April 2006
© AfDB/OECD 2006 African Economic Outlook

Part One