Africa at a Fork in the Road

536 Pages·2015·7.01 MB·English

AFRICA at a Fork in the Road
TAKING OFF OR DISAPPOINTMENT ONCE AGAIN?
Edited by
Ernesto Zedillo
Olivier Cattaneo
Haynie Wheeler
Yale Center for the Study of Globalization
Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or Disappointment Once Again?
A Yale Center for the Study of Globalization eBook
Edited by
Ernesto Zedillo
Olivier Cattaneo
Haynie Wheeler
Betts House
393 Prospect Street
New Haven, CT 06511
USA
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Email:
Yale Center for the Study of Globalization
The Yale Center for the Study of Globalization (YCSG) was established in 2001 to
enhance understanding of this fundamental process and to promote exchanges
of information and ideas about globalization between Yale and the policy world.
The Center is devoted to examining the impact of our increasingly integrated world
on individuals, communities, and nations. Globalization presents challenges and
opportunities. The Center’s purpose is to support the creation and dissemination of
ideas for seizing the opportunities and overcoming the challenges. It is particularly
focused on practical policies to enable the world’s poorest and weakest citizens to
share in the benefts brought by globalization. It also explores solutions to problems
that, even if they do not result directly from integration, are global in nature, and
can therefore be effectively addressed only through international cooperation. In
addition to drawing on the intellectual resources within the Yale community, the
Center actively collaborates with institutions and individuals across the globe.
Contents
Acknowledgements 9
Preamble: Africa in Global Context: Change and Challenges 13
James Wolfensohn
1. Overview 19
Ernesto Zedillo
Part I: Interpreting Africa’s Recent Record 37
2. Africa’s Policy Choices in an Era of Rapid Growth 39
Donald Kaberuka
3. Industrialization: The Good Road Ahead 45
Carlos Lopes
4. Reconciling Two Views of Africa’s Economic Boom 53
Shantayanan Devarajan
Part II: Why Performance Matters: The Challenge of Inclusive Growth 61
5. H ow Inclusive is the Present Growth Pattern in Sub-Saharan
Africa? 63
Erik Thorbecke
6. I nclusive Growth in Africa: Current Performance and
Prospects 87
Mthuli Ncube
7. P roductivity, Jobs, and Growth in Africa: Six Pieces of the
Puzzle 121
Vijaya Ramachandran
8. A voiding an African Spring: Confronting Africa’s “Employment
Problem” 133
John Page
5
ela Y C enteof r t r eh tS o ydu olG f tazilab oi n
9. Africa’s Jobs Challenge 145
Haroon Bhorat and Karmen Naidoo
10. T he Informal Sector, Employment, and Economic Growth:
Recommendations for Effective Policies 163
Nancy Benjamin, Stephen Golub, and Ahmadou Aly Mbaye
Part III: The Governance Factor 179
11. D emocratic Governance in Africa: Misconceptions and
Opportunities 181
Leonard Wantchekon
12. The Political Origins of Africa’s Economic Revival 189
Robert H. Bates and Steven Block
13. E vidence-based Refections on Natural Resource Governance
and Corruption in Africa 239
Daniel Kaufmann
14. R efections on Corruption in Africa: Shifting Standards and
Challenges 261
Ian Shapiro and Adira Levine
15. T o Maintain its Forward Momentum, Africa Needs Bold
Leadership 271
Ernest Aryeetey
Part IV: New Norms, New Opportunities: Africa in a Changing World 277
16. Global Value Chains and “Servicifcation” in Africa 279
Olivier Cattaneo
17. B etter Global Governance for a Stronger Africa: A New Era, A New
Strategy 315
Léonce Ndikumana
18. C hina-Africa Economic Cooperation: Dimensions, Changes,
Expectations 331
Deborah Brautigam
19. The Role of Aid in a Changing Africa 341
Stefan Dercon and Nick Lea
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Africa at a Fork in the Road: Taking Off or disappointment Once Again?
Part V: Shaping Africa’s Future 353
20. Actors of Change in Africa: Human Capital and Markets 355
Yaw Nyarko
21. P ast the Resource Curse: The “New Normal” of African
Economics and Politics 365
Paul Acquah
22. C an Africa Move from Resource Dependence to Structural
Transformation? 373
Adam El Hiraika and John Robert Sloan
23. F oreign Direct Investment, Natural Resources, and Employment
in Sub-Saharan Africa 395
Elizabeth Asiedu, Komla Dzigbede, and Akwasi Nti-Addae
24. T anzania: Turning Natural Gas into Sustained Growth
Christopher Adam 415
25. F eeding Africa’s Growing Population 435
John M. Omiti and Nancy M. Laibuni
26. T aking Stock of Africa’s Green (Shoot) Revolution 449
John W. McArthur
27. S mallholders Hold the Keys to Africa’s Food and Nutrition
Security 473
Sam Dryden
28. F inancial Markets, Investment, and Productivity in African
Agriculture 485
Christopher Udry
29. T owards Sustainability: Predictors of Growth Reversals in
Africa 495
Jacob Oduor and Hodkinson Brennan
Conference-Participant Contributors’ Biographical Information 519
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Acknowledgements
This volume is the product of a conference hosted by the Yale Center for the Study
of Globalization in April of 2014 to assess the key development opportunities and
challenges of Africa.
The conference brought together an extremely talented and knowledgeable group
of academics, practitioners, and policymakers from Africa, the U.S. and Europe, with
the objective of analyzing the sustainability of Africa’s current trajectory, exploring
which policies and practices have proven most effective throughout the region, and
discussing what needs to be done to keep Africa growing and address more effectively
the acute poverty and human development problems that persist in some countries
on that continent. Hence the importance of convening a group as distinguished as
the one we were able to bring together to debate the challenges, opportunities and
predicaments of Africa’s development over the course of two days at Yale.
Our forum to focus on Africa’s development was not our frst such gathering. It was
the third in a series of international forums, or colloquia, to discuss in depth key
aspects of the economic evolution of some of the emerging players in the global
economy. Having held two colloquia on Latin America’s future growth and develop-
ment, the most recent in the spring of 2013, we turned our attention to Africa and
plans proceeded apace to undertake a serious discussion of that continent’s eco-
nomic growth and development for, among other topics, its prospective contribution
to the size of the global economy, and more importantly for its consequences in
addressing what is a signifcant part of the global poverty problem.
In the meantime, a serendipitous occurrence took place at Yale when our univer-
sity’s new president, Peter Salovey, was inaugurated in the fall of 2013. One of
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Yale Center for the Study of Globalization
the key points of the inaugural address was when President Salovey announced
that “With the growing infuence of the African continent on the world economy, as
well as increased migration to, from, and within Africa, this is the moment to bring
scholarship and teaching about Africa at Yale into sharper focus.” With these well-
received comments, we knew that our conference was coming at a propitious time
in the life of our University.
This volume contains 30 papers submitted by the participants in follow-up to their
presentations at the conference. The papers, for the purposes of this e-volume,
have not been peer reviewed, nor did the editors require that the papers be of
similar length, as is sometimes done in such volumes. The papers are the product
of our conference proceedings. The scholars and practitioners who produced the
chapters that follow are some of the most thoughtful, skillful, and effective voices
commenting today on African development in all its many aspects. We wish to
express extensive gratitude to all of them for the time and effort they have given
to prepare their papers for this publication. They have kindly and patiently put up
with our many communications and have produced what we are certain will be an
extremely useful volume.
All of us at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization are indebted to Olivier
Cattaneo, also a participant and paper contributor, for helping us to develop the
structure, organizing the content of the conference, and doing the initial editing of
the submitted papers. We would also like to thank Rachel Weaving whose editing
skills and talent for turning a set of papers into a book are remarkable. It is always
a pleasure to work with such a professional.
Our Center’s Deputy Director, Haynie Wheeler, who began working on this project
at the initial idea stage, was in charge of organizing the conference and galvanizing
authors to produce their submissions in a timely fashion, and she helped throughout
the editing process. She performed all these tasks with her usual grace and effciency.
The Rockefeller Foundation provided the primary fnancial support for the confer-
ence, and for that we extend our most sincere appreciation to President Judith Rodin
and her colleagues. We also warmly and sincerely thank Mr. Mamadou Biteye, the
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