AFGHANISTAN WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW® AFGHANISTAN WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW® BARNETT R. RUBIN 1 3 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. “What Everyone Needs to Know” is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2020 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Names: Rubin, Barnett R., author. Title: Afghanistan : what everyone needs to know / Barnett R. Rubin. Description: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2020] | Series: What everyone needs to know | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2019037423 (print) | LCCN 2019037424 (ebook) | ISBN 9780190496630 (hardback) | ISBN 9780190496647 (paperback) | ISBN 9780190496654 (updf) | ISBN 9780190496661 (epub) Subjects: LCSH: Afghanistan—History—20th century. | Afghanistan—History—2001– | Afghanistan—Politics and government— 20th century. | Afghanistan—Politics and government—21st century. Classification: LCC DS371.4 .R825 2020 (print) | LCC DS371.4 (ebook) | DDC 958.104—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019037423 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019037424 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Paperback printed by LSC Communications, United States of America Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi ABBREVIATIONS xv AFGHANISTAN MAP xix 1 Afghanistan Seen by Others 1 Do the United States or other countries have an obligation to help Afghanistan? 3 How does the situation in Afghanistan affect its neighbors? 4 Is Afghanistan the “graveyard of empires”? 8 Does Afghanistan threaten the world, or vice versa? 11 2 The Land and the People 13 How do people in Afghanistan identify themselves? 13 What are the main ethnic groups in Afghanistan? 15 Is Afghanistan a tribal society? 18 What is the economy of Afghanistan? 22 Is Afghanistan a traditional society living in some past century? 26 3 State and Politics 28 What is the origin of Afghanistan? 28 What political developments shaped the Afghan government since the country took on its present form? 32 vi Contents How has the Afghan state paid for itself? 41 Has the Afghan state been centralized or decentralized? 43 Historically, what was the relationship of Islam to state power, governance, and politics? 44 Why was Afghanistan stable and peaceful for so long? 46 4 Communist Coup, Islamic Resistance 48 How did the war start? 48 How did the world respond to the invasion? 53 How did the PDPA- led DRA government change after the Soviet intervention? 55 What was the Afghan resistance and who were the mujahidin? 58 How did external support shape the Afghan resistance? 66 How did Arab mujahidin come to Afghanistan, and why did some of them found al- Qaeda? 67 How did the US and Pakistani strategies change? 71 Why did Mikhail Gorbachev withdraw Soviet troops from Afghanistan? 75 How did the USSR withdraw its troops? 77 Why did Najibullah’s government collapse in April 1992? 81 5 Civil War: Islamic State to Islamic Emirate 83 What set off the 1992– 96 civil war? 83 How did the Afghan- Soviet and civil war transform Afghan society, politics, and international relations? 87 How did the Afghan- Soviet War change the relationship of Afghanistan to the international community? 90 What conditions gave rise to the Taliban? 93 Who were the Taliban and who were their leaders, including Mullah Omar? 96 What was the goal of the Taliban? 100 How was the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan structured? 103 Why did the Taliban ban girls from school and women from work, as well as enforce other strict prohibitions and requirements? 106 Contents vii How did the Taliban capture control of different regions of Afghanistan? 109 What was the strategy of the Northern Alliance resistance to the Taliban? 113 What was the relationship of the Taliban to Osama bin Laden and al- Qaeda? 114 What was the relationship of the Taliban to Pakistan once the Taliban gained power? 116 How did the Taliban and the United Front fund their institutions and operations? 117 What relations did the Taliban have with the US and the rest of the international community? 124 How did the Taliban respond to 9/ 11, and why did they refuse to hand over the al- Qaeda leaders? 126 6 9/ 11, International Intervention, and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 128 What happened in the run- up to 9/ 11? 128 How did the US and other international actors respond to 9/1 1? 129 Who is Hamid Karzai? 133 How was the new government, led by Hamid Karzai, established, and what was the Bonn Agreement? 135 What was the political role of the UN in Afghanistan? 144 What was the International Security Assistance Force and what was its mandate? 146 Who were the “warlords,” and how did the US and other actors deal with them? 149 How were the Afghan National Security Forces, and the security sector more generally, built? 152 What was the purpose of the Emergency Loya Jirga and what happened there? 156 How did Afghanistan adopt a new constitution, and what happened at the Constitutional Loya Jirga? 158 What is the role of elections? 161 What were the results of the two presidential elections won by President Karzai? 163 viii Contents Who is Ashraf Ghani, and how did he become president? 167 Is Afghanistan a democracy? 170 What does it mean that Afghanistan is an Islamic republic? 173 7 Reconstruction and Development 175 Principal author, Nematullah Bizhan What was the economic and social condition of Afghanistan at the start of the interim government? 175 How did the economic and social conditions change after 2001? 180 What were the development frameworks used by the Afghan government and its international supporters? 183 Was there a plan for the reconstruction of Afghanistan? How was the aid coordinated? 185 Has the aid strengthened Afghan institutions? 193 How has aid dependence shaped Afghan politics? 196 What is the role of Afghanistan’s neighbors in reconstruction and development? 199 Has aid decreased since 2014? What has been the economic effect of withdrawal of most foreign troops by 2014? 201 8 Narcotics and Counter- Narcotics 204 Principal author, David Mansfield How did narcotics become the largest industry in Afghanistan? 204 Who benefits from the narcotics industry? 206 Do farmers make more from opium poppy than they could from other crops? 207 How did the Taliban suppress poppy cultivation in 2001? 208 What is the goal of counter- narcotics policy? 210 What policies did the international community and Afghan government pursue against narcotics, and what has been the result? 214 Why not just buy all the opium from the farmers? 220 What crop can substitute for poppy? 221 Do drugs support terrorism in Afghanistan? 222 Contents ix What is the relationship of the narcotics industry to the Afghan government? 225 What are the most important areas of cultivation? 226 Why is Afghanistan the center of world heroin production, and how can this change? 228 What are the main sources of corruption in Afghanistan other than narcotics? 229 9 More War, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency 230 Principal author, Antonio Giustozzi How did the insurgency against the Afghan government and international presence in Afghanistan start? 230 What are the main centers of the insurgent leadership? 234 What is the Haqqani network? 235 Does the insurgency consist of a small number of extremist leaders allied to al-Q aeda, and a large mass of fighters without ideological motivation? 237 How important has al- Qaeda been in the insurgency? 239 What international support does the insurgency have? 240 What are the local sources of funding for the insurgency? 240 What are the objectives of the insurgency. Is negotiation or political settlement possible? 241 How have the Taliban fared on the battlefield since the major reduction of US coalition troops that began in 2011? 245 What has happened to the Taliban since the death of Mullah Omar? 247 Who are the Pakistani Taliban? Are they the same as the Afghan Taliban? 249 What effect did the rise of the Islamic State have on Afghanistan? 250 Can the Afghan Taliban return to power? 254 What has been the relationship of the Taliban to Pakistan, especially the ISI? 254 10 Peace or More War? 256 What reforms did President Ghani enact? 258 Was the National Unity Government agreement implemented? 262