Afghanistan in 2011. A Survey of the Afghan People

262 Pages·6.778 MB·English

AFGHANISTAN IN 2011
A Survey of the Afghan People
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AFGHANISTAN IN 2011
A Survey of the Afghan People
Afghanistan in 2011
A Survey of the Afghan People
Project Design and Direction
The Asia Foundation
Editor
Ruth Rennie
Report Authors
Mohammad Osman Tariq
Najla Ayoubi
Fazel Rabi Haqbeen
Fieldwork
Afghan Centre for Socio-economic and Opinion Research (ACSOR), Kabul
Report Design and Printing
The Asia Foundation
AINA Media, Kabul
© 2011, The Asia Foundation
About The Asia Foundation
The Asia Foundation is a nonprofit, non-governmental organization committed to the development of a peaceful, prosperous,
just, and open Asia-Pacific region. The Foundation supports Asian initiatives to improve governance, law, and civil society;
women’s empowerment; economic reform and development; sustainable development and the environment; and international
relations. Drawing on nearly 60 years of experience in Asia, the Foundation collaborates with private and public partners to
support leadership and institutional development, exchanges, and policy research.
With 18 offices throughout Asia, an office in Washington, DC, and its headquarters in San Francisco, the Foundation addresses
these issues on both a country and regional level. In 2010, the Foundation provided more than $98 million in program support
and distributed nearly one million books and journals valued at over $42 million.
The Asia Foundation is not an endowed organization, and depends solely on monetary contributions from donors to accomplish
its work.
For more information, visit www.asiafoundation.org
This survey was made possible by support provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development (Award No. 306-A-
00-09-00514-00). The opinions expressed herein do not reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development
Afghanistan in 2011
Table of contents
1. Executive Summary.....................................................................................................................................................03
1.1 Key Findings...........................................................................................................................................................................................03
1.2 Summary..................................................................................................................................................................................................08
1.3 Restriction on survey field work and replacements of sampling points for security reasons....................................................14
2. National Mood............................................................................................................................................................17
2.1 Direction of the country......................................................................................................................................................................17
2.2 Reasons for optimism...........................................................................................................................................................................18
2.3 Reasons for pessimism.........................................................................................................................................................................21
2.4 Afghanistan’s biggest problems: National level................................................................................................................................23
2.5 Afghanistan’s biggest problems: Local level......................................................................................................................................25
3. Security........................................................................................................................................................................27
3.1 Fear for safety.........................................................................................................................................................................................27
3.2 Experience of crime and violence......................................................................................................................................................28
3.3 Attitude towards reporting crime........................................................................................................................................................32
3.4 Fear to participate in various activities...............................................................................................................................................37
3.5 Perceptions of the Afghan National Police.......................................................................................................................................39
3.6 Perceptions of the Afghan National Army.......................................................................................................................................41
4. Reconciliation and Reintegration...............................................................................................................................43
4.1 Perceptions of the government’s reconciliation efforts..................................................................................................................43
4.2 Reasons why armed opposition groups fight the Afghan government........................................................................................47
4.3 Sympathy with armed opposition groups..........................................................................................................................................48
5. Economy......................................................................................................................................................................53
5.1 Economic prosperity.............................................................................................................................................................................53
5.2 Economic situation of Afghan households......................................................................................................................................56
5.3 Availability of transport means...........................................................................................................................................................57
5.4 Main source of energy for cooking and heating...............................................................................................................................58
6. Development and Service Delivery.............................................................................................................................61
6.1 Services and facilities available in local areas.....................................................................................................................................61
6.2 Future expectations for infrastructure and services.........................................................................................................................64
6.3 Awareness of development programs................................................................................................................................................65
6.4 Development programs and public awareness of foreign aid........................................................................................................67
7. Governance..................................................................................................................................................................69
7.1 Confidence in public institutions........................................................................................................................................................69
7.2 Satisfaction with the performance of the central government..........................................................................................................72
7.3 Satisfaction with central government performance in policy and service delivery.........................................................................74
7.4 Important achievements and failings of the central government .................................................................................................75
7.5 Satisfaction with the performance of local government.................................................................................................................78
7.6 Role of elected representative bodies.................................................................................................................................................84
7.7 Contacts with members of parliament (MPs)..................................................................................................................................88
7.8 Contacts with provincial council representatives............................................................................................................................90
7.9 Role of community development councils....................................................................................................................................92
Afghanistan in 2011
8. Corruption.................................................................................................................................................................95
8.1 Corruption – major or minor problem..........................................................................................................................................95
8.2 The forms of corruption..................................................................................................................................................................98
8.3 Payment of bribes ..........................................................................................................................................................................100
8.4 Government efforts to fight corruption.......................................................................................................................................103
9. Political Participation................................................................................................................................................105
9.1 Freedom of expression...................................................................................................................................................................105
9.2 Personal efficacy: ability to influence government decisions.....................................................................................................110
9.3 Consideration of the public interest when making decisions and policies..............................................................................111
9.4 Democratic spirit of the government...........................................................................................................................................114
9.5 Attitudes toward participation in democratic processes..............................................................................................................117
9.6 Perceptions of democracy................................................................................................................................................................118
9.7 Involvement of religious leaders...................................................................................................................................................122
9.8 Perceptions of the 2010 parliamentary elections........................................................................................................................123
9.9 Elections as a method for choosing leaders.................................................................................................................................126
9.10 Perceptions of political parties ...................................................................................................................................................127
9.11 Constitutional responsibilities of the president and parliament ...........................................................................................130
10. Justice Systems.........................................................................................................................................................137
10.1 Dispute resolution..........................................................................................................................................................................137
10.2 Perceptions of state courts............................................................................................................................................................148
10.3 Perceptions of local shura and jirga.............................................................................................................................................150
11. Women in Society......................................................................................................................................................153
11.1 Biggest problems faced by women...............................................................................................................................................153
11.2 Attitudes towards gender equality: women and education.........................................................................................................157
11.3 Attitudes towards gender equality: women and employment.....................................................................................................159
11.4 Women’s political participation.....................................................................................................................................................161
11.5 Women and political leadership.....................................................................................................................................................165
11.6 Women in representative roles.......................................................................................................................................................167
12. Access to Information..............................................................................................................................................169
12.1 Access to communications technology.......................................................................................................................................169
12.2 Radio listenership...........................................................................................................................................................................170
12.3 Television viewership.....................................................................................................................................................................171
12.4 Sources of information for news and current events...............................................................................................................173
13. Appendix 1: Target Demographics...........................................................................................................................175
14. Appendix 2: Methodology........................................................................................................................................179
15. Appendix 3: Interview Questionnaire.......................................................................................................................193
16. Appendix 4: Afghanistan Provincial and Regional map..........................................................................................256
Afghanistan in 2011 1
PREFACE
2011 has been an important and eventful year for the people of Afghanistan. The 12 months since The Asia
Foundation conducted its last Survey of the Afghan People have been filled with significant developments, includ-
ing beginning the initial phases of the planned transition of the country’s security to Afghan leadership. As
the international community and Afghan citizens alike reflect on the last decade in Afghanistan, the opinions
expressed by the people of Afghanistan matter more than ever.
Against this backdrop, The Asia Foundation conducted its seventh nationwide survey of Afghan public opin-
ion, the broadest and most comprehensive poll in Afghanistan. In July 2011, the Foundation interviewed close
to 6,500 adult Afghans, face-to-face, across the 34 provinces of Afghanistan.
The survey, as in previous years, provides a sense of the mood and direction of the country. It is both a
snapshot of Afghan perceptions at a specific point in time and a tool to measure shifts in public opinion over
a longer period of time. The survey aims to gather firsthand opinion of a large sample of Afghan citizens
on a variety of contemporary governance and development-related issues so that policymakers and opinion
shapers in government, the international community, and the broader Afghan public can utilize valid and reli-
able data as they make decisions and craft future policy.
In 2011, despite the economic, political, and security challenges facing Afghanistan, close to half of respon-
dents remain optimistic, and say the country is moving in the right direction. The survey suggests that Af-
ghans view the country’s economic situation more favorably than in previous years, although unemployment
remains one of the country’s biggest problems. The majority agree that women should have equal opportuni-
ties. The 2011 survey also records the highest levels of access to education and health services, and growing
understanding of the role of public institutions. While there is growing public confidence in the Afghan secu-
rity forces and police, there is at the same time an increased reluctance by the public to fully participate in their
own governance – particularly for women – a rising concern of corruption at all levels, and acknowledgement
of an increasingly challenging security environment.
The 2011 Survey of the Afghan People is the latest in a series of empirical assessments that The Asia Foundation
has conducted across Asia. The Foundation has established a reputation for developing surveys in order to
pinpoint citizen concerns and needs, to gauge public support and development progress, and inform impor-
tant policy debates and development programs.
The survey also represents an investment by The Asia Foundation in building Afghan research capacity. The
survey was managed by our office in Afghanistan, working in close collaboration with several Afghan organi-
zations, including Kabul-based Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research (ACSOR) and the
Central Statistics Organization of Afghanistan (CSO).
Afghanistan is striving to rebuild, accelerate development, and attain a better future. We hope that the survey
findings – which capture the realities, concerns, goals, and expectations of the Afghan people – will help il-
luminate the situation on the ground and provide useful guideposts for future development efforts by the
Afghanistan government and the international community.
David D. Arnold
President, The Asia Foundation
October 2011
2 Afghanistan in 2011
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The survey remains an impressive team effort that involved local partners and The Asia Foundation staff in
Kabul working under the guidance of Country Representative Dr. V. Bruce J. Tolentino, Deputy Country
Representative Sheilagh Henry, and Survey Project Manager Jehangir Gabar. Special thanks to Asia Founda-
tion Program Directors Mohammad Osman Tariq, Najla Ayoubi, and Fazel Rabi Haqbeen for their contribu-
tions as principal authors of the survey. Staff in San Francisco and Washington, DC also greatly supported
the project. We also thank Sudhindra Sharma and Pawan Kumar Sen of Inter Disciplinary Analysts (IDA) for
their guidance, and Ruth Rennie for her editorial assistance. Finally, the support of the United States Agency
for International Development (USAID) and its team of professionals – particularly Mir Waez Zarif – made
this important research and capacity-building tool possible.
Afghanistan in 2011 3
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Key Findings
Nearly half of the respondents (46%) in 2011 say that things in the country are moving in the right direction.
Thirty-five percent say things are moving in the wrong direction – an increase of 8% compared to 2010.
The main reason for people’s optimism is reconstruction/rebuilding (40%). Of those who are optimistic,
more than a third of respondents in 2011 say it’s because of good security (39%) and 16% cite improvement
in the education system.
At the same time, insecurity is the top reason for pessimism, cited by 45% of the respondents who say the
country is moving in the wrong direction. This is followed by corruption (16%), bad government (15%) and
unemployment (13%).
Insecurity (including attacks, violence and terrorism) is identified as the biggest problem in Afghanistan by
over a third of respondents (38%), particularly in the South East (56%), East (53%) and South West (52%).
Unemployment remains the second biggest problem, cited by 23% of respondents. Corruption is identified
by 21% of respondents making it the third biggest problem in 2011. Poverty (12%), poor economy (10%),
lack of education (10%), presence of the Taliban (8%), suicide attacks (8%) and interference of foreign coun-
tries (7%) also continue to be identified amongst Afghanistan’s biggest problems.
Unemployment continues to feature amongst the most important problems at both national and local levels
with 23% of respondents identifying unemployment as a problem at the national level and 28% at the lo-
cal level. Other major problems at the local level include basic infrastructure and services such as electricity
(23%), drinking water (20%), roads (15%), education (14%), insecurity (14%) and lack of healthcare/clinics/
hospitals (12%), similar to previous years.
More than half of respondents (56%) say they fear for their personal safety in their local area. The highest
proportions of respondents who report fearing for their safety are in the South East (68%), West (62%) and
East (61%). There have also been significant increases in the incidence of crime and violence experienced by
respondents in these same regions since 2010, with 4%, 3% and 8%, respective increases. There has been a
9% increase in the incidence of crime in the North West.
Twenty-two percent of respondents report that they or someone in their family have been victims of vio-
lence or crime in the past year, which is the highest level recorded to date. The most common form of crime
experienced remains physical attack or beating (36%) followed by burglary/looting (12%) and racketeering
and extortion (10%). Violence resulting from the actions of foreign forces (8%) is most commonly reported
in the South West (27%), followed by the South East (9%), Central/Hazarajat (6%) and East (5%). Violence
due to militant/insurgent actions (4%) is cited most often in the East (8%), Central/Kabul (6%), North East
(5%) and South East (5%).
4 Afghanistan in 2011
The majority of respondents say they would have some level of fear voting in a national election (57%),
participating in a peaceful demonstration (66%), running for a public office (63%), traveling from one part
of Afghanistan to another part of the country (75%) and encountering international forces (76%). However,
more than half of respondents say they would have no fear participating in resolving problems in their com-
munities (59%) or encountering officers of the Afghan National Army (ANA) (55%) or Afghan National
Police (ANP) (51%).
In 2011, support for the government’s approach toward negotiation and reintegration of armed opposition
groups remains high. Eighty-two percent of respondents support the government’s attempts to address the
security situation through negotiation and reconciliation with armed opposition. Support for the govern-
ment’s peace and reconciliation efforts and negotiations with the armed opposition is high in all regions and
highest in the East (89%), South West (87%), North West (85%) and South East (83%). Eighty-one percent
of respondents also agree with the government providing assistance, jobs and housing to those who lay down
arms and want to reintegrate into society.
The proportion of respondents who say they have some level of sympathy with the motivations of armed
opposition groups reaches its lowest level in 2011. Support has fallen from 56% in 2009 and 40% in 2010 to
29% in 2011. However, more than a third of respondents in the East (41%), South East (41%), and South
West (37%) say they have some level of sympathy with armed opposition groups.
In 2011, the majority of respondents report satisfaction with the availability of most basic services, including
education for children (73%), water for drinking (70%), the ability to move safely in local areas (70%) and
the availability of clinics and hospitals (57%). Nearly half of respondents are satisfied with the availability of
water for irrigation (45%). Respondents are least satisfied with the availability of jobs and electricity supply.
At the same time, 70% say the availability of jobs in their local area is bad and 65% say the same about the
supply of electricity.
In 2011, more people report an annual improvement across all areas of economic wellbeing than in previous
years, except in relation to electricity supply. Forty-three percent of respondents report improvement of the
financial wellbeing of their household (compared to 42% in 2010 and 31% in 2009), 35% report improvement
in the quality of their food diet (compared to 33% in 2010 and 23% in 2009), and 30% say the same about
the availability of products in the market (compared to 27% in 2010 and 19% in 2009). Twenty-two percent
of respondents report an improvement in electricity supply but this is reported by more urban (40%) than
rural (17%) respondents.
More than half of respondents say they are aware of development projects relating to reconstruction/build-
ing of roads and bridges (59%) and education (57%) in their local area. Forty-eight percent report awareness
of projects related to drinking water supply, 44% report awareness of healthcare programs, 33% are aware of
programs related to agriculture and 18% of programs to support industry.
Afghanistan in 2011 5
Slightly more than a quarter of respondents (27%) say the United States has provided the most aid for proj-
ects implemented in their local area, which is a significant drop from previous years (48% in 2006, 44% in
2007, 46% in 2008 and 41% in 2009). Respondents also identify Germany (7%) – particularly in the North
East (22%), Japan (6%) – particularly in the East (12%) and South West (10%), India (4%) – also in the East
(8%) and South West (10%), and the United Kingdom (Britain) (2%) – especially in the South West (8%) as
major donors supporting development projects in their local area.
Overall satisfaction with the performance of the national government has remained the same as in 2010 with
73% of respondents saying the government is doing a good job. The government’s performance is judged
most positively with regard to the provision of basic public services such as education (85% say the govern-
ment is doing a good job), healthcare (68%) and security (62%). Although less than half of respondents say
the government is doing a good job in reviving/developing the economy (46%), creating job opportunities
(36%) and fighting corruption (35%), levels of satisfaction with the national government’s performance in all
these areas have risen slightly since 2010.
Satisfaction with the performance of other levels of government has also risen in 2011. Respondents are
most positive about the performance of their provincial government (80%) which is equal to the highest
figure recorded in 2007. Sixty-eight percent of rural respondents say that their local authority is doing a good
job, which is also just short of the highest figure recorded in 2009 (69%). Respondents are least satisfied with
the performance of municipalities (63%). However, this figure has risen significantly since 2010 (54%) to its
highest recorded level in 2011.
The 2011 survey records the highest levels of confidence recorded to date in a range of public institutions
including provincial governments (67%), parliament (62%), the public administration (62%) and community
development councils (CDC) (68%). This year for the first time, a majority of respondents express confidence
in municipal authorities (55%) and the state justice system (55%).
The survey shows that the majority of Afghans think that corruption is a major problem in all facets of life
and at all levels of government. A little more than half of respondents say corruption is a major problem in
their daily life (56%) and their local authorities (56%); these figures have been rising since 2007. Around two
thirds say that corruption is a major problem in their provincial government (64%), and around three quarters
think that corruption is a major problem for Afghanistan as a whole (76%).
Representative bodies continue to enjoy the confidence of the majority of respondents, including community
shura and jirga (70%), community development councils (CDC) (68%), provincial councils (67%) and parlia-
ment (62%). This year the level of confidence in all these bodies has increased compared to 2010. In 2011, for
the first time the majority of respondents are aware of a CDC in their area, particularly in rural areas. Levels
of satisfaction with the performance of CDCs also increased slightly in 2011 (81%) compared to 2009 (78%).