aerospace america september 2016

2016·10.6 MB·English

APPRECIATION 7 Q&A 10 UNMANNED AIRCRAFT 28
Rudolf E. Kalman Lockheed Martin’s Antonelli The Navy’s carrier drone
on Mars planning debate
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AEROSPACE

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Planet spotting

SEPTEMBER 2016
Getting serious about

finding and photographing
an Earthly world
PAGE 20

aerospaceam
erica.org
SEPTEMBER 2016 | A publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics | www.aerospaceamerica.org
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FEATURES | September 2016 MORE AT aerospaceamerica.org
20 28 34 38
Carrier drone Springboard Freedom from
Planet spotting debate Russian engines
Getting humans to the
moon or Mars will almost
The Navy has decided How the U.S. military
Earthlike exoplanets seem almost certainly need to be an
that its first full-sized and intelligence
international endeavor
certain to exist somewhere in the carrier-based unmanned communities became
like the construction and
galaxy, and delivering a photograph aircraft will be a refueling dependent on rocket
on-orbit assembly of
drone with some engines from a
of one might be astronomy’s most the International Space
intelligence capabilities, geostrategic foe and
Station.
amazing achievement. Technologists rather than an unmanned how to avoid a repeat.
equivalent of an F/A-18.
are trying to make that possible, and
By John Cook
For some, it’s a big By James Knauf
maybe sooner than you think.
letdown, and possibly a
dangerous one.
By Adam Hadhazy
By Keith Button
On the cover: Artist’s rendering of Kepler-186f, the first Earth-sized planet
detected orbiting a hospitable zone near a star other than our sun.
Image credit: NASA Ames/SETI Institute/JPL-Caltech
aerospaceamerica.org | SEPTEMBER 2016 | 31
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IN THIS ISSUE
SEPTEMBER 2016, VOL. 54, NO. 8
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Keith Button
Ben Iannotta
[email protected] has written for C4ISR Journal and Hedge Fund Alert, where he broke news of
the 2007 Bear Stearns hedge fund blowup that kicked off the global credit
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
Kyung M. Song crisis. Keith’s article “Carrier drone debate,” on page 28, examines the U.S.
Navy’s decision to make a carrier-based refueling drone.
[email protected]
PRODUCTION EDITOR
Greg Wilson
[email protected]
John Cook
EDITOR AIAA BULLETIN
Christine Williams worked as an engineer on the International Space Station and space shuttle
[email protected] programs. John’s article about the space station’s on-orbit assembly and what
it says about the future, “Springboard,” appears on page 34.
EDITOR EMERITUS
Jerry Grey
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Keith Button, John Cook, Adam Hadhazy
Kristin Davis, Adam Hadhazy, Duane Hyland,
Tom Jones, James Knauf, Michael Peck, writes about astrophysics and technology. His work has appeared in Discover
Robert van der Linden, Frank H. Winter and New Scientist magazines. In “Planet spotting” on page 20, Adam tells us
about technologies for imaging exoplanets.
James “Jim” Maser PRESIDENT
Sandra H. Magnus PUBLISHER
Rodger S. Williams DEPUTY PUBLISHER
Craig Byl MANUFACTURING
AND DISTRIBUTION James Knauf
ADVERTISING retired from the U.S. Air Force as a colonel in 2006. Jim is chair of AIAA’s Space
Joan Daly, 703-938-5907 Transportation Technical Committee. His analysis of the RD-180 conundrum,
[email protected] “Freedom from Russian rocket engines,” begins on page 38.
Pat Walker, 415-387-7593
[email protected]
ADVERTISING MATERIALS DEPARTMENTS
Craig Byl, [email protected]
ART DIRECTION AND DESIGN 4 Editor’s Notebook 6 7
THOR Design Studio | thor.design
5 From the Corner Office Trending Appreciation
Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published Northrop Grumman’s Global Rudolf E. Kalman
monthly by the American Institute of Aeronautics and 8 P&E Highlights Hawk: No de-icing necessary?
Astronautics, Inc., at 12700 Sunrise Valley Drive, Suite 200
Reston, VA 20191-5807 [703/264-7500]. Subscription rate
is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible 45 Bulletin 10 12
therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S., $200;
foreign, $220. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send
address changes and subscription orders to address above, 60 Career Opportunities Q&A Astronaut’s View
attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical
postage paid at Reston, Virginia, and at additional mailing Former astronaut Tony Antonelli A newly discovered asteroid will
offices. Copyright 2016 by the American Institute of 62 Looking Back
on Mars exploration orbit in loose formation with
Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved.
The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA Earth for centuries.
in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies
of this issue printed. 16 64
This is Volume 54, No. 8.
Book Review Trajectories
Leonard David’s “Mars: Our Career turning points and
Future on the Red Planet” future visions
aerospaceamerica.org | SEPTEMBER 2016 | 53
EDITOR’S NOTEBOOK | OUR NEW LOOK
U
.S
. N
a
v
y
An X-47B unmanned
Aerospace America 2.0 demonstrator flies over
the flight deck of the USS
George H.W. Bush in 2013.
You’ve probably noticed that this issue of Aerospace America unveils a new look and feel.
As the stories inside prove, one thing that has not changed is our commitment to dig into
aerospace technologies and issues with a depth and clarity we know readers demand.
The cover story on planet-hunting technologies captures the human excitement and scien-
tific understanding that would come with delivering a photo, even a rudimentary one, of
an Earthlike planet. The article describes the technical tradeoffs between coronagraphs and starshades
for teasing planetary photons from the blinding light of their host stars. I came away with a new ap-
preciation for the technical work in this area, and a hope that there will always be a reasonable level of
funding available in the U.S. and abroad for this kind of work.
“Carrier drone debate,” on page 28, shows why it’s hard for the U.S. and other countries to devote
resources to knowledge for knowledge’s sake. It seems clear that the U.S. Navy’s decision to forgo an
unmanned combat-intelligence plane was driven by budget considerations. The U.S. could be missing
a chance to stay ahead of potential adversaries such as China, which is adopting a bolder military
posture on the sea and in the air.
Ben Iannotta
Ben Iannotta
Editor-in-Chief
[email protected] | @beniannotta
4 | SEPTEMBER 2016 | aerospaceamerica.com
CORNER OFFICE | UPDATE FROM THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Around the Institute
I wanted to spend some time updating everyone Again, we will communicate details as they develop.
on a few of the various activities that are ongoing A lot has been going on in other areas across the Institute.
around the Institute, both in the volunteer and In June, AIAA held the inaugural DEMAND for UNMANNED
staff communities. First I would like to give you a UAS symposium in conjunction with AIAA AVIATION 2016 in
quick update on the governance project. The Board Washington, DC. The response from the community was very
of Directors and Institute Development Committee dis- positive with over 250 people attending to discuss technical
cussed transition plans at their June meetings. The decision and policy issues related to this very fast moving field. The
was made to keep the current structure until the May 2017 Unmanned Systems Program Committee will continue to
Board meeting. In the next year the group will be working to develop AIAA activities, building on the great success of the
develop the policies and procedures necessary for a smooth first symposium. We are reaching out to develop collaborative
transition. In May 2017 the new structure will be established relationships with other organizations in this area to facili-
with the current elected leadership. Over the course of the tate communication between our membership and the UAS
next three years, using the normal election cycle, a complete manufacturing, sales and operator communities.
transition to the new structure will be completed. In addition, We are also moving to address the evolution of energy as
a preliminary set of Bylaws has been voted on and will be it affects the economics and environmental impact of the
posted to the Governance Project webpage (www.aiaa.org/ aerospace industry. A workshop on hybrid-electric propul-
Governance). We will continue to communicate the progress sion was held at AIAA Propulsion and Energy 2016 with AIAA
and changes that are happening as they occur. stakeholders, as well as invited experts from other techni-
Another important project that we are starting concerns cal and industry sectors including energy storage, electric
public access (and open access). The term “public access” machines, and electric utilities. A strategic roadmap was
identifies published works that must comply with the Febru- developed that identified the technical challenges that must
ary 2013 memorandum from the Office of Science and Tech- be addressed to realize hybrid electric propulsion; this road-
nology Policy (OSTP) to the heads of executive departments map will guide AIAA’s program and product development to
and agencies. The subject of this Executive Order concerned help our profession bring this technology to fruition. We also
increasing access to the results of federally funded research. are planning an electric aircraft workshop and expo for AIAA
The memo requires any federal agency with over $100 million AVIATION 2017.
of extramural research funding to make the results of the The Diversity Working Group presented a plan of action to
research publicly available after a defined embargo period. the Board at its June meeting that was unanimously adopted.
(Recently the embargo period was defined as 12 months). The (The AIAA Diversity Working Group page [http://www.aiaa.
OSTP policy targets only peer-reviewed journal publications; org/Diversity] will be updated with the plan soon.) The work-
it does not include conference papers or books. Open access, ing group has spent the last year talking to many different
on the other hand, is a term used to identify material that is groups in the community and has incorporated this feedback
immediately available for free to the public. This category can in its action plan. If you are interested in becoming engaged
include any kind of media or product and any source. in this activity, please contact us at [email protected].
Federal agencies impacted by this policy are implement- We have been experimenting with a STEM program called
ing different compliance solutions, and it is important for our “Generation STEM: Discovering Aerospace through Experi-
research community to be cognizant of the various require- ence” at our forums. The program debuted at AIAA SPACE 2015,
ments. The procedural details and steps that authors must and also took place at AIAA Propulsion and Energy 2016. The
take to comply with the policy are still being developed at program, targeting middle school students, provides a day of
the various agencies (and will likely be written into the grant hands-on activities related to concepts and principals relevant
information). We will continue to monitor this topic and to the aerospace industry. It also features several interactive
communicate information as we get it. In addition, we are corporate demonstrations provided by key industry leaders.
examining the impact of the public access policy on AIAA as I want to close by thanking everyone for the time and
a publisher. energy that you put into AIAA. I know how busy your “day
An additional issue yet to be addressed concerns scientific jobs” keep you and how important free time is. We all have a
data. Per the OSTP memo, not only is the published paper lot to fit into our 24 hours a day! I am extremely impressed and
to be made publicly available after an embargo period, but grateful for the time that our volunteers dedicate to AIAA, and
also the data used to support the paper. The agencies are still hence, the aerospace profession. With your contributions we
debating how this policy could and should be implemented. are making a difference in moving our industry, our profession,
There are a lot of thorny questions around how to store, find, and the world forward! ★
access, and document data that have yet to be worked out. — Sandy H. Magnus, Executive Director
aerospaceamerica.org | SEPTEMBER 2016 | 5
TRENDING | UNMANNED AIRCRAFT
U
.S
. A
ir F
o
rce
Northrop Grumman’s
No de-icing necessary? RQ-4 Global Hawk
was pressed into
service 15 years
ago without
By Michael Peck | [email protected] | @Mipeck1 de-icing capability.
The U.S. Air Force
is reviewing whether
The U.S. Air Force is considering whether to lift ice-related mishap. That led prime contractor to lift operational
the ban on the RQ-4 Global Hawks flying in ic- Northrop Grumman to believe that the aircraft could restrictions on the
high-flying drones.
ing weather. The high-flying unmanned intel- safely pass through icy weather.
ligence planes were pressed into service during the ªWe had anecdotal information, so the purpose
wars in Iraq and Afghanistan without de-icing sys- of this test was to provide flight test data that un-
tems, and test flights conducted in April and May equivocally stated we could fly through known icing
now suggest that the planes might not need them. conditions,º says Mick Jaggers, who heads Northrop
Global Hawks typically cruise at about 60,000 Grumman's Global Hawk work.
feet, where the atmosphere is too cold and dry for ice Formal testing would be required to prove it.
to form. But getting to that altitude requires travers- Northrop Grumman assisted the Air Force with a se-
ing the 8,000- to 22,000-foot altitude band where ic- ries of Global Hawk flights at Edwards Air Force
ing can be an issue. Though a Global Hawk spends Base, California. Rather than waiting for icy weather,
only about five minutes passing through this zone, researchers brought the clouds to the plane. They
the Air Force currently mandates that if its onboard fastened nylon shapes Ð formed by 3-D printers Ð
ice probes detect icing, the plane must climb or dive to the wings and tail of the aircraft to mimic the air-
until the ice melts, before attempting to penetrate flow disruption from ice as the Global Hawk con-
the icing zone again. ducted climbs and dives. The aircraft was also flown
Responding to ice is a particularly sensitive is- with medium and heavy fuel loads to determine if
sue for unmanned aircraft like the Global Hawks. this affected its icing survivability.
While some drones are flown by pilots who are at the The results showed that ªour flight control algo-
ready in ground stations to respond to ice, the Global rithms are sufficient to safely maneuver the vehicle
Hawks fly preprogrammed flight paths and are through known icing conditions,º Jaggers says. As for
largely autonomous, with their pilots intervening Global Hawk's maximum tolerance for ice, Jaggers
only to issue general instructions to change altitude, says ªthe final icing limit has not yet been deter-
course and speed. On the other hand, unlike other mined, but the Global Hawk was not designed to op-
drones, Global Hawks have ice sensors that can alert erate in sustained icing conditions.º
their pilots to icing conditions. The fleet has accumu- The Air Force has not said how or when it might
lated about 200,000 flight hours without a single rule on the ban. ★
6 | SEPTEMBER 2016 | aerospaceamerica.com
APPRECIATION | RUDOLF E. KALMAN
Honoring R
yan
M
o
rris
a legacy
algorithm
By Kyung M. Song
[email protected] | @KyungMSong
Rudolf E. Kalman receives
Even decades after, Rudolf Emil Kalman's for- vanced Studies in Baltimore, which later became the National Medal of
Science from President
mer Ph.D. students recall being roused out of part of Martin Marietta. The Kalman filter was a solu-
Barack Obama in 2009.
bed early by a ringing telephone, with Kalman tion to the imperfectness of mathematical models.
on the line dissecting perceived flaws in their theo- All statistical estimations can be undermined by
rems. They had come to study from Japan, France, faulty sensor measurements, unexpected distur-
Turkey and the U.S., despite Kalman's intimidating bances and other variables.
reputation and worries about their own command of Kalman's computer-programmable algorithm
abstract algebra. reduced the uncertainties through two dynamic
Kalman, a polylingual mathematician and electri- equations, said Angus Andrews, a former senior sci-
cal engineer, in 1960 wrote a groundbreaking algorithm entist at the Rockwell Science Center. In Kalman fil-
that was quickly adopted by NASA researchers who had tering, one equation generates estimates of the un-
been stymied by how to guide Apollo astronauts to the known variables. The second equation estimates the Call for Papers
moon and back. Called the Kalman filter, the algorithm accuracy of the uncertainty estimates. The Journal of Guidance,
became a mainstay in high-performance military and Kalman published his research, ªA New Ap- Control, and Dynamics
will publish a special issue
commercial flight-control software. proach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems,º
devoted to the Kalman
The Kalman filter helps calibrate each Orbital in March 1960 in a journal of the American Society of filter and its aerospace
ATK Cygnus cargo ship's docking position on the In- Mechanical Engineers. applications.
ternational Space Station. It calculates the correct At the time, Stanley Schmidt, then the chief of See the call for papers at:
altitude for releasing an Orion capsule's drogue the Dynamic Analysis Branch at NASA's Ames Re- arc.aiaa.org/loi/jgcd.
Deadline is December 1.
chutes that slow the crew module on its return to search Center in California, had difficulty under-
Earth. It also helps forecast the weather, pinpoint standing Kalman's paper. But Schmidt believed the
cellphone locations and fine tune trajectories of theory was the answer to the challenge of plotting
drones, submarines and missiles. the Apollo mission's circumlunar orbit. Not only
To those in the field of guidance, navigation was the moon a moving target, the spacecraft's sen-
and control, Kalman is what ªSteve Jobs is to the mo- sitive trajectory was buffeted by a host of factors Ð
bile device community or Elon Musk is to the electric such as the need to change velocity in tandem with
car industry,º says Lesley Weitz, lead simulation changes in altitude Ð that could send the astro-
modeling engineer with the Center for Advanced nauts careening off into deep space.
Aviation System Development at MITRE, which op- The ªextendedº Kalman filter that was eventu-
erates federally-sponsored research centers. ally loaded on Apollo 11 worked fast. It continu-
The Hungarian-born Kalman died July 2 in ously generated new best estimates based on the
Gainsville, Florida. He was 86. most-immediate previous state without using
In 2008, Kalman's elegant algorithm earned much memory. That was no small matter for the
him the National Medal of Science, the nation's Apollo guidance computer, which had less than
highest recognition for scientific achievement. one megabyte of memory, not enough to store even
Though Kalman was blunt and demanding, genera- one song on an iPhone.
tions of students from the University of Florida, Stan- Andrews regards the Kalman filter as peerless.
ford University and ETH Zurich credit ªREKº with He calls it the ªMaslow hammerº for complex, non-
profound influence on their careers. linear estimation problems, citing the American psy-
Kalman conceived the idea for his algorithm in chologist Abraham Maslow's observation that to
the late 1950s while at the Research Institute for Ad- someone with only a hammer, everything is a nail. ★
aaeerroossppaacceeaammeerriiccaa..ccoomm || SSEEPPTTEEMMBBEERR 22001166 || 77
AIAA PROPULSION AND ENERGY 2016 | SALT LAKE CITY
Highlights
Green aviation On the topic of engine technologies, includ- “If they screw up,
Turboelectric propulsion, which uses fuel-burn- ing nacelles and heat-tolerant internal coatings,
fire them. If they
ing engines to generate electricity, has the best Epstein said ultimately, propulsion and aircraft
succeed, give
shot at making a big dent in commercial avia- designs will need to be considered together as a
them the things
tion’s carbon footprint within the next 30 years system, even if that was not the committee’s focus.
rather than batteries or hybrid engines. The committee also lauded the potential of they need to get
That was the key finding presented by the fed- sustainable alternative fuels to reduce aviation’s their job done.”
eral Committee on Propulsion and Energy Systems carbon footprint. That’s critical, said Steven
Bran Ferren, chief
to Reduce Commercial Aviation Carbon Emissions, Csonka, executive director of the Commercial creative officer
which is advising NASA on research priorities. Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative, because “we of Applied Minds,
The committee concluded that turboelectric expect to be using fuel in aircraft at least for the on encouraging
propulsion, coupled with distributed propulsion next five decades.” innovation
and boundary layer ingestion, could lower emis-
sions and fuel burn by at least 20 percent com- Reusable rockets: Holy Grail or chasing “I think you
pared with today’s large commercial aircraft, our tail?
should learn
AIAA’s Ben Iannotta reported. Space visionary Wernher von Braun was the first
to say yes to
No current “battery chemistries” are capable of to imagine reusable launch systems, once propos-
the point of
powering commercial jets carrying 100 passengers or ing to build components that could be reused
more, said Alan Epstein, vice president for technology nearly 1,000 times to send crews to Mars. discomfort.”
and environment for Pratt & Whitney. What’s more, That von Braun’s dream is possible has been Rex Geveden, chief
the U.S. lacks “megawatt class” facilities necessary for borne out by the X-33, X-34 and X-37, panelists told operating officer of
advanced research on battery propulsion, said Karen a capacity crowd, reported AIAA’s Duane Hyland. BWX Technologies,
Thole, a committee co-chair and professor of nuclear Experts agreed that reusable systems — es- on one way to propel
and mechanical engineering at Penn State. pecially from the perspective of liquid engine your career
Thole cautioned that the committee’s mes- technology — wasn’t a question of feasibility, but
sage was not, “Stop working on batteries.” rather, as Doug Bradley, chief engineer of ad-
8 | SEPTEMBER 2016 | aerospaceamerica.org