Table Of Content

AAcover.qxd:AA Template 10/16/09 1:43 PM Page 1 1 0 November 2009 A E R O S P A C E A M E R IC A N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 9 Defense acquisitions A change in direction Defining a subsidy Choosing the pathway to space A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS toc.NOV2009.qxd:AA Template 10/15/09 11:53 AM Page 1 November2009 DEPARTMENTS COMMENTARY 3 Nuclearpropulsion—Theaffordablealternative. Page42 INTERNATIONALBEAT 4 Airfreightrevival:Realoramirage? WASHINGTONWATCH 6 Controversyanddoubtsindefenseandspace. INDUSTRYINSIGHTS 10 DefensegiantsreshapeUAVindustry. SPACEUPDATE 12 Transforminghumanspaceflight. ENGINEERINGNOTEBOOK 16 PhantomTorsotakessolarblastsforscience. Page10 SYSTEMS&SOFTWARE 20 Cloudcomputing:Comingfullcircle. OUTOFTHEPAST 42 Page12 CAREEROPPORTUNITIES 46 FEATURES MILITARYACQUISITIONS:THESHIFTINGTREND 25 Sweepingchangesinthemilitary’sapproachtoacquisitionswillaffect nearlyeverymajordevelopmentandproductionprogram. Page16 byJ.R.Wilson Page32 CHOOSINGTHEPATHWAYTOSPACE 32 ApresidentiallyappointedpanelfindsNASA’shumanspaceflightprogram hastoolittlemoneyandtoofewoptions. Page36 byFrankSietzenJr. DEFININGASUBSIDY 36 Whatconstitutesfairandunfairstatesupportforairlinerprogramsremains unclear,eveninrecentrulings. byPhilipButterworth-Hayes BULLETIN AIAAMeetingSchedule B2 AIAACoursesandTrainingProgram B4 Page36 AIAANews B5 MeetingProgram B15 COVER TheObamaadministrationhasmovedtorestructurenotjustthedirectionandnatureofDOD’sfutureacquisitions, butalsotheprocessesunderwhichthoseacquisitionswillbemade.Seethestorybeginningonpage25. AerospaceAmerica(ISSN0740-722X)ispublishedmonthlybytheAmericanInstituteofAeronauticsandAstronautics,Inc.at1801AlexanderBellDrive,Reston,Va.20191-4344[703/264-7577]. Subscriptionrateis50%ofduesforAIAAmembers(andisnotdeductibletherefrom).Nonmembersubscriptionprice:U.S.andCanada,$163,foreign,$200.Singlecopies$20each. Postmaster:Sendaddresschangesandsubscriptionorderstoaddressabove,attentionAIAACustomerService,703/264-7500.PeriodicalpostagepaidatHerndon,VA,andatadditional mailingoffices.Copyright©2009bytheAmericanInstituteofAeronauticsandAstronautics,Inc.,allrightsreserved.ThenameAerospaceAmericaisregisteredbytheAIAAintheU.S.Patent andTrademarkOffice.40,000copiesofthisissueprinted.ThisisVolume47,No.10. nov comment.qxd:AA Template 10/15/09 11:43 AM Page 1 ® isapublicationoftheAmericanInstitute ofAeronauticsandAstronautics ElaineJ.Camhi Editor-in-Chief PatriciaJefferson AssociateEditor GregWilson ProductionEditor Nuclearpropulsion–Theaffordablealternative JerryGrey,Editor-at-Large ChristineWilliams,EditorAIAABulletin Planningforhumansolarsystemexplorationhasstubbeditstoe,badly,onasim- Correspondents plebitofreality:Theperformanceofchemicalrocketpropulsionisinadequate. RobertF.Dorr,Washington ThemassratiorequiredtodeliversomethingtoMarsisover20timesgreater PhilipButterworth-Hayes,Europe MichaelWestlake,HongKong thanwithnuclearpropulsion.Theaddedcostsofnecessaryferryflightsandon- orbitintegrationarefatal. ContributingWriters Thedebateonhumanspaceexploration,miredinoverruns,highlightstwo RichardAboulafia,JohnBinder,James seminaldrivers:longdevelopmenttimeandhighcost.Nuclearpropulsion,proven W.Canan,MarcoCáceres,EdwardFlinn, TomJones,ThéoPirard,DavidRockwell, nearlytothepointofflightqualificationinthe1960s,offerstheuniquecombina- FrankSietzen,J.R.Wilson tionofhighspecificimpulseandlargeenergydensitythatcandrasticallycutMars missioncosts.Propulsiontechnologychangeisthereforewarranted,andalsoadif- FitzgeraldArt&Design ArtDirectionandDesign ferentfinancialpolicy—onethatrestsonsustainednationalandcollaborativeinter- nationalcommitment,notshackledtounrealisticdeliverydatesthatareclearlyun- CraigByl,ManufacturingandDistribution achievable.TheseminalcostdriveroftheConstellationprogramisthelimited DavidW.Thompson,President performanceofchemicalpropulsion. RobertS.Dickman,Publisher Reactivationofnuclearrockettechnologywillinvolvedecisionstolocatetest STEERINGCOMMITTEE andproductionfacilities.IffacilitiesattheNuclearRocketDevelopmentStation MichaelB.Bragg,UniversityofIllinois; nearLasVegascanberefurbishedeconomically,significantsavingswouldaccrue. PhilipHattis,DraperLaboratory;MarkS. Selectionofnewfacilitiesmightstumbleintoparochialconflictsandregionalpolicy Maurice,AFOSR;LauraMcGill,Raytheon; differences,especiallyduringhardeconomictimes,andhighercosts.Butseveral GeorgeMuellner,Boeing;MerriSanchez, newtestingapproachesthatyieldsignificantcostreductionshavebeenconceived NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministra- intheCenterforSpaceNuclearPropulsionattheIdahoNationalLaboratory. tion;MarySnitch,LockheedMartin Publicfearofradiationinjuryisgreatlyoverblown.Healthphysicsauthori- EDITORIALBOARD tiesnotethatthisfearhascausedradiationhealthhazardtobevastlyoverstud- ied,overanalyzed,andoversurveyed.Thedevelopmentandtestingofnuclear NedAllen,LockheedMartinAeronautics; Jean-MichelContant,EADS;Eugene rocketsthroughoutthe1960swere,infact,remarkablysafe,despitevocalcriti- Covert,MassachusettsInstituteofTechnol- cismsbredinparanoia.NonotableradiationinjuryoccurredatNRDS.Experi- ogy;L.S.“Skip”Fletcher,TexasA&MUni- encewithnuclearmaterialsinspaceandgroundfissionpowersystemsensures versity;MichaelFrancis,UnitedTechnologies; thatnuclearrocketdevelopmentwillnotpresentapublichealthhazard. ChristianMari,Teuchos;CamMartin, Thesuccessfuldevelopmentofnuclearrocketpropulsionduringthe1960s NASADryden;DonRichardson,Donrich resultedinanear-flightdesign,whichwasabandonedwhentheNixonadminis- Research;DouglasYazell,Honeywell trationterminatedtheMarsmission.Theprogramhas,sincethen,waitedsev- ADVERTISING eraldecadesforarestartstimulus.Thenuclearrockethasalwaysbeentherec- NationalDisplayandClassified: ognizedsolutionforMarsexploration;itisnowanopportunetimeforaserious RobertSilverstein,240.498.9674 reevaluation.Billionsofdollarscouldbesavedbythisapproach. [email protected] Adetailedhistoryofpastnuclearrocketdevelopmentisavailableonthe WestCoastDisplay:GregCruse, AerospaceAmericaWebsite[www.aerospaceamerica.org]. 949.361.1870/[email protected] Toresuscitatethisoption,majordecisionsmustbemade,beginningwith recoveryoftheengineeringdataandequipmentstillavailablefromremnantsof SendmaterialstoCraigByl,AIAA,1801 AlexanderBellDrive,Suite500,Reston,VA theextensiveRover/NERVAnuclearrockettestinganddevelopmentprograms 20191-4344.Changesofaddressshouldbe inthe1950sand1960s.Thesedecisionsincludetestfacilitylocation,primary senttoCustomerServiceatthesameaddress, andsecondaryfueltypes,andnuclearrocketflightconfiguration.Historicac- [email protected],orbyfaxat complishmentsofRover/NERVAprovideapowerfuljumpstartineacharea, 703/264-7606. withcompositefuelsastheprimaryapproach.Cermetsormulti-carbidefuels SendLetterstotheEditortoElaineCamhi wouldbeasoundbackup.Afast-trackprogramrangingoversixorsevenyears [email protected] toflightappearsfeasible. November2009,Vol.47,No.10 StanleyV.Gunn,Rocketdyneengineer,Rover/NERVA,ret. ErnestY.Robinson,nuclearmaterialsengineer,LawrenceRadiationLab,ret. BEATlayout-1.qxd:AA Template 10/14/09 2:49 PM Page 2 Air freight revival: Real or a mirage? IN JULY OF THIS YEAR THE AMOUNT OF of the upswing came at the expense of this July compared to July a year ago, international air cargo handled by Chi- yields,whichfellbynearly20%inthefirst mainly as a result of falls in European- nese airports rose 1.1% over the same half of 2009, as revenues on interna- Asiatraffic,whichdropped23.2%inthe month in 2008—the first increase in a tionalairfreightmarketsalsoplungedby same month compared to 2008. Over- year,accordingtotheCivilAviationAd- some40%overlevelsayearago.” all,AsiaPacificcarrierswillpostlossesof ministrationofChina. $3.6billionthisyear,accordingtoIATA. It is generally agreed across the in- BoominAsia “Thefreightnumberstellaninterest- dustrythatwhenthecivilaviationrecov- Compared to North America and Eu- ingstory.Thesectorisbeingboostedas ery comes it will start in the burgeoning rope,theeconomiesoftheFarEastare companiesrestockdepletedinventories. economies of the Far East, and the first recovering relatively quickly from the Once inventories are at desired levels in signs of an upturn will occur in the air global recession. The domestic market relation to sales, improvements in de- freight markets. So is the good news within the Far East is resilient. The Air- mand will level off until business and from China evidence of a real recovery port Council International (ACI) has re- consumerconfidencereturns.Giventhe in civil aviation, or just another false ported that domestic passenger travel largeamountofdebtinallsectorsofthe dawn? across the Asia Pacific area rose by economy,instantreliefisnotinthefore- Aircargogrowthtypicallyleadseco- 3.9% in the first six months of the year cast,” said IATA’s chief executive officer nomic and passenger traffic growth by comparedto2008,withJuneshowinga GiovanniBisignaniinSeptember. three to six months, according to Jim healthyriseof7.2%. In a September cargo market analy- Edgar, Boeing’s regional director, cargo Indiaisabouttotransformitselffrom sis, IATA said continued excess capacity marketing,attheAsianAerospaceevent a relatively small market to a major re- forcedyieldsdownby21%inthesecond inHongKonginSeptember.“Thisyear, gional air cargo hub, according to a re- quarter of this year, leading to a 40% we’reanticipatingadeeperdecline,and centFrost&Sullivanstudy.International shrink in first-half revenues. One result it’ll be the first time in history that we’ll and domestic Indian air cargo turnover has been that some freight forwarders havetwoyearsofdeclinebacktoback,” wasabout1.77milliontonnesin2007- wereconsideringairfreight,ratherthan he said. “The decline is slowing...things 2008 but will increase at a compound seafreight,foritemsnotofhighvalue. are improving and we’re hopeful, but annual growth rate of roughly 8.3% by According to Hong Kong Shippers’ there’sawaytogoyet.” 2013.“Increasingglobalization,integra- Council director Sunny Ho, speaking at According to the International Air tion of the world economy, and the the Airfreight Asia 2009 conference in Transport Association (IATA), there is a strengthening of India in the IT service September,HongKonggarmentmanu- fragile recovery in the air freight sector, providerspacehasresultedinabooming facturerswerenowturningtoairfreight butonlyasaresultofloweryieldsandcut- Indian economy, supporting a thriving for U.S. customers experiencing low in- backsincapacity.Therisingpriceoffuel global economy,” according to Frost & ventorylevels. is threatening to choke the recovery be- Sullivan analysts Arun Narayanan and Airbus and Boeing will be watching fore it is fully under way. “Since the low ChethanKambi.“Thishasincreasedthe the fortunes of the Far East air cargo point was hit last December, air freight aggregate demand and is an important sector with particular interest as they volumeshaverisenby10%,”saidIATA’s driverforaircargoservices.” bothplantointroducelong-range,high- September cargo market analysis. “Part But it is too early yet to determine capacity cargo aircraft—aimed particu- whethermodesteconomicgrowthlevels larly at customers in the Asia Pacific re- RafiqHaririBeirutInternationalisnowthe among Far Eastern states will act as a gion—in 2010. Airbus’ first A330-200F fastestgrowingaviationhubintheworld,with catalyst to a wider recovery in the air freighterwillbedeliveredsoonaftercer- numbersrisingforbothfreightandpassengers. transportindustry. tification in the first quarter of the year; deliveryofBoeing’sfirst747-8freighter AviationintheFarEast isscheduledforthethirdquarter. The early indications suggest Far East domesticaviationmarketsareoperating Planningdifficulties in a distinctly different economic envi- Whilelong-termtrendspointtoagrowth ronmenttoglobalaviationmarkets.The rate in the air freight market of more Association of European Airlines, for than 5% a year, short-term fluctuations example, reported an overall drop of inthedemandandsupplycyclecanplay 16.8% in freight-tonne kilometers for havocwithaircraftmanufacturers’plans. 4 AEROSPACEAMERICA/NOVEMBER2009 BEATlayout-1.qxd:AA Template 10/14/09 2:49 PM Page 3 ThefirstAirbusA330-200Fisexpectedtobedeliveredinthefirstquarterof2010. It also suggested the trend toward more widebody freighters will continue: “Large freighters are the aircraft of choice on the large and fast-growing flowsoriginatinginAsia.Today,69%of largefreighterscheduledflightslinkAsia, China,orJapantotherestoftheworld. As a consequence, the large freighter segment is expected to see the highest growth,withayearlyaverageincreaseof 5.9%overtheforecastperiod,from426 Airbushashadtoputonholdthedevel- director Robert Dahl. ACMG is predict- aircraft today….more than 50% of the opmentofanAirbusA380freighter,de- ing transpacific air freight will grow at largefreightersrequiredareexpectedto spitehavingordersfor27ofthetypeat around7%ayear. benewdeliveries.” thestartof2005,asprogramdelaysand Airbus, too, is confident about the (Continuedonpage9) a declining freight market have forced long-term health of the air potential customers to develop survival, freight sector. But its latest air ratherthangrowth,plans. freightmarketforecast,released Thedifficultmarketconditionsbegan at the end of 2008, suggested in May 2008, according to Boeing, and that the rise in price of oil they led to a contraction in cargo traffic could slow down recovery. ofabout6%fortheyear,incomparison “During the summer of 2008, to 2007 levels. Further declines were fuel prices rose to unprece- recordedearlythisyear.Combinedwith dented levels, leading to older slowing world industrial production and aircraft being parked,” accord- international trade, this has had a slight ing to its December 2008 air downwardimpactonBoeing’slong-term cargomarketforecast.“Indeed, view of the freight market, leading to a around 400 freighter aircraft 5.4% cargo traffic growth rate, meas- were parked during the period uredinrevenuetonne-kilometers,inthis September-October 2008 as a year’sforecast. direct consequence of the ex- AmilestonewasreachedintheassemblyoftheBoeing747-8 Boeing is still optimistic about the tremely high fuel price and the freighterasmechanicscompletedinstallationofGEnx-2B long-termdemandfornewfreighterair- deterioratingdemand.” enginesonAirplane1. craft and expects global air cargo traffic to return to growth next year amid a CUSTOMERSANDORDERS broadeconomicrecovery,withtheU.S. Customer Country Orders andChinaleadingtheway. AirbusA330-200F Aircastle U.S. Leasingcompany 12 Thelongerterm GuggenheimAviationPartners U.S. Investmentfundcompany 2 The world will need to double the num- IntrepidAviationGroup U.S. Investmentfundcompany 20 beroffreightersoverthenext20years, AvionAircraftTrading Iceland Leasingcompany 6 BankofChina China Leasingcompany 5 according to a recent Air Cargo Man- MatlinPattersonGroupAdvisers U.S. Investmentfundcompany 6 agement Group (ACMG) study, with Etihad AbuDhabi Operator 3 3,472 freighters needed for growth and FlyingtonFreighters India Operator 12 replacement from 2009 through 2028. MNGAirlines Turkey Operator 2 AccordingtoACMG,1,100ofthesewill ACTAirlines Turkey Operator 2 AlisAerolineeItaliane Italy Leasingcompany 5 be“new-build”aircraftand2,372willbe conversions; the number of widebody Boeing747-8F Cargolux Luxembourg Operator 10 freighters as a percentage of the overall NipponCargoAirlines Japan Operator 8 market will increase to reflect the grow- AirBridgeCargoAirlines Russia Operator 5 ing importance of the Far East custo- AtlasAir U.S. Operator 12 mers serving global markets. “If domes- CathayPacific China Operator 10 DubaiAerospaceEnterprise Dubai Investmentfundcompany 5 tic China grows 10% per year as EmiratesSkyCargo Dubai Operator 10 predicted, by 2028 this market will be GuggenheimAviationPartners U.S. Investmentfundcompany 4 larger than the domestic U.S. air cargo KoreanAir Korea Operator 5 marketistoday,”saysACMGmanaging Note–ordernumbersaresubjecttosuddenchange.TablecompiledinSeptember2009. AEROSPACEAMERICA/NOVEMBER2009 5 WATCH2.qxd:AA Template 10/14/09 2:51 PM Page 2 Controversyanddoubtsindefense andspace INAMAJORPOLICYREVERSAL—SAYINGTHE ingtonPostcolumnist Andrew Nagorski changewasbasedonadvicefromPenta- that Washington was “walking away gon officers—President Barack Obama from an agreement with two allies in personallytoldtheleadersofPolandand Central Europe and appearing to bend the Czech Republic in September that topressurefromtheKremlin.”(Somein the U.S. will abandon its longstanding WashingtonplacePolandandtheCzech planforamissiledefenseshieldinEast- Republicin“Central”ratherthan“East- ernEurope. ern”Europe,pointingoutthatPragueis The change ends Washington’s goal westofVienna). of deploying 10 ground-based intercep- The Pentagon’s civilian boss insists torsinPolandandinstallinglarge,fixed- that Washington is not letting its friends site radar on Czech soil by 2017. The down.“Thosewhosaywearescrapping two facilities were expected to work to- missiledefenseinEuropeareeithermis- gether to counter long-range ballistic informed or misrepresenting what we missiles launched from Iran. Although SecretaryofDefenseRobertGates are doing,” said Secretary of Defense theprogramwasdefensive,Moscowhad Robert Gates in a press conference. adamantlyopposedhavingweaponryso rangetoreachpartsofEuropeandU.S. “This shift has even been distorted as close to its frontiers in a region the for- basesinthegulf.) somesortofconcessiontoRussia,which mer Soviet Union once dominated, and Russia welcomed the change. Al- fiercely opposed the old plan. Russia’s theplanbecameathorninthesideofre- though Poland and the Czech Republic attitude and possible reaction played no lationsbetweenWashingtonandRussia. revel in their newfound role as allies of partinmyrecommendationtothepres- Obama attributed his decision to a the U.S., public opinion within both identonthisissue.” changed perception of the threat posed Eastern European nations had been Gates emphasized that “American by Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. mixed,atbest. missiledefenseonthecontinentwillcon- He said Washington now believes that As expected, Capitol Hill conserva- tinue.” His proposed new missile de- short- and medium-range missiles from tives expressed displeasure over the de- fenseplanwillrelyonsensorsandinter- Iran pose a more immediate threat, cision. Perhaps unexpectedly, they also ceptor missiles based at sea, on land, whileanIranianICBMismanyyearsfar- objected to the suddenness of the an- and in the air, but the emphasis will be ther away than once projected. (In late nouncement. Sen. John McCain (R- on the RIM-161 SM-3 Block 1-A Stan- September Iran launched a series of Ariz.), who has sometimes crossed the dard Missile carried by Navy Aegis-class medium-range‘test’missilesofsufficient aisletosupportObamaonotherissues, warships and adaptable to operations noted that “a late-night phone call was from land. Marine Corps Gen. James all it took to tell our friends to take a Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint UndersecretaryofDefenseforPolicy hike.” Obama report- MicheleFlournoy edly reached Polish Prime Minister Donald Theemphasisinthenew missiledefenseplanwillbe Tusk by phone at mid- ontheStandardMissile. nightTusk’stime. In Capitol Hill testi- mony, Pentagon policy chief Michele Flournoy apologized to lawmak- ersfornotbriefingthem in advance. Flournoy said the administration rushed its announce- ment because details werebeginningtoleak. Critics of the decision agreed with Wash- 6 AEROSPACEAMERICA/NOVEMBER2009 WATCH2.qxd:AA Template 10/14/09 2:51 PM Page 3 Chiefs of Staff, said that by 2015, a scrapped plans to reengine its land-based SM-3 based on the yet- first-generationC-5As,whichare untested block 1-B version could be 15 years older than its second- placed in Poland, the Czech Republic, generation Bs, but both models “andinotherNATOcountriesaswell.” are still scheduled for an avionicsmodernizationprogram(also Airlifterupgradedoubts abbreviated AMP). Only C-5Bs TwofamousAirForcecargohaulers,the will also receive an engine up- C-130HerculesandC-5Galaxy,areen- grade,replacing41,000-lb-thrust meshed in controversy as the Pentagon General Electric TF39-GE-1C andCapitolHilldebatethefutureofthe turbofan engines with 67,000- nation’sairliftfleet. lb-thrustGECF6-80C2engines. Air Force chief of staff Gen. Norton An upgraded Galaxy transport Schwartz wants to kill the C-130H that emerges from both the TheAMPisintendedtomodernizeandstandardize cockpitsof222C-130Hs. AvionicsModernizationProgram(AMP). AMPandreenginingprogramis Atthesametime,AirForceleadersand designatedC-5MSuperGalaxy. some in Congress want to save the C-5 TheC-5istheonlyaircraftthatcan modernizationprogram. carry some cargoes. But some in Con- tionalwisdomthattheaircraft,although The C-130 is the proven, four-en- gressinsistthattheC-5Misnotneeded more reliable and economical, is not ginedturbopropcraftthatperformsasa andthatC-5fundingshouldbediverted nearlysolongrangedasitsrival. “tactical airlift,” bringing supplies and tobuildingmoreC-17sinstead,whether Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) and Rep. weaponry to crude airstrips close to the thePentagonrequeststhemornot. Mike Castle (R-Del.) oppose this argu- front lines. Speaking to reporters about Boeing officials have said that if the ment. They believe the future of Dover the AMP, Schwartz said in September, Pentagon does not order more C-17s, AFB,Del.,longafixtureforthenation’s “Thebottomlineis,wecan’taffordit.” theproductionlinewillshutdowninJuly transatlantic airlift efforts, relies on con- Boeing won the AMP contract in of2011. tinuing to modernize older C-5s to the June2001,defeatingtheaircraft’sman- Sen.DanielInouye(D-Hi.)andRep. C-5M.CastletoldtheWilmington,Del., ufacturer, Lockheed Martin. Boeing be- John Murtha (D-Pa.) are among C-17 NewsJournalthatlawmakersregardcon- gan low-rate initial production and has supporters.Inouye,whohelpedarrange tinued C-17 production “as a jobs pro- delivered its first C-130H AMP avionics forC-17stobestationedinHawaii,said gram”andthatmorearenotneeded. simulatortoLittleRockAFB,Ark. the Globemaster III is a “great aircraft, AmidtheC-5versusC-17debate,a Intended to modernize and, more ideallysuitedforthevastdistancesofthe C-5MSuperGalaxymadearecordflight important, standardize cockpits of 222 Pacific region”—defying the conven- onSeptember13.Carryingapayloadof C-130Hs, AMP has experienced cost overruns and delays. A 2008 report by the Government Accountability Office was sharply critical of the program. Schwartzsayshewantsalesscostlyup- gradethatwillenableagingC-130Hsto fly on international air routes. He cau- tioned that “no decision is final,” but sincetheDODhassucceededincutting bigger programs such as the F-22 that were more popular on Capitol Hill, ob- serversexpectSchwartztogethisway. Lesscleariswhatwillhappentothe C-5 Galaxy fleet. The C-5 and its rival, the C-17 Globemaster III, are the Air Force’soutsized“strategicairlift”freighters,carryinglargecargoesontransconti- nentalandtransoceanicmissions. The C-5 fleet numbers 111 aircraft, out of 126 built (59 C-5As, 47 C-5Bs, two C-5Cs, and three C-5Ms). A year OnSeptember13theSpiritofNormandytookofffromDoverandbrokeeightrecords. ago,asaneconomymove,theAirForce AEROSPACEAMERICA/NOVEMBER2009 7 WATCH2.qxd:AA Template 10/14/09 2:51 PM Page 4 176,610 lb, a C-5M named The Spirit Humanspaceflight of Normandy took off from Dover and At a time when the spaceflight commu- climbedto41,188ftin23min53sec,a nity has been awaiting key policy deci- new world record for aircraft weighing sions by the Obama administration, the 551,155-661,386lb.Altogether,theC- watchdog GAO on September 25 re- 5Mbrokesevenotherrecords.Thepilot leased a harsh report concluding that ontheflightwasLt.Col.ScottErickson, NASAisonunsurefooting. the reservist in charge of C-5M training The administration was expected to atDover. makeadecisioninthefallonwhetheror At the beginning of October Con- not to proceed with “the Vision” or gress appeared poised to appropriate adoptsomeotherplantoputastronauts fundsfor10moreC-17sinFY10,even into orbit aboard U.S. vehicles. The Vi- thoughtheadministrationdoesnotwant sion—now called the Constellation pro- them and the Pentagon did not request gram—would build an Ares I launch them. The White House indirectly gave rocket and an Orion crew exploration lawmakers a green light by saying vehicletoreplacethethree-vehiclespace Obama would not veto a bill funding shuttle fleet. There was little good news more C-17s. As for the C-130H AMP, fortheplanineithertheGAOreportor Rep.BartGordon observers in Washington did not expect theprogramtoreceivemorefunds. port, “NASA does not know how much AresIandOrionwillultimatelycost,and Tankerprogramshift will not know until technical and design Responsibilityforprocuringanewairre- challengeshavebeenaddressed.” fueling tanker aircraft will go to the Air Rep. Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.), who Force rather than the Office of the Sec- chairstheHouseCommitteeonScience retaryofDefense,Gateshasdecided.At and Technology, requested the GAO aSeptember24Pentagonnewsconfer- findingsaspartofhiscommittee’sover- ence,theAirForceannouncedsomede- sightofNASAacquisitionefforts. tails about the latest KC-X program, The GAO report amounts to “piling whichwillbethethirdefforttoacquirea on” findings by the presidentially ap- newtankersince2001. pointed Augustine blue-ribbon panel. Nextsummer,saysAirForcespokes- Augustine ran into unexpected anger manCol.MichaelCurphey,thecompe- andfrustrationfromlawmakerswhenhe titionwilldownselectthewinnerfor179 testified on Capitol Hill that neither aircraft under the KC-X program. The NASA’scurrentprogram,Constellation, planisfordeliveryof15tankersayear. nor any of its likely alternatives can get NormanAugustine Thefirstdeliverywilltakeplacein2015, U.S.astronautsoutofLEOwithoutasiz- and the service will reach initial operat- ablespendingincrease.Hiscommittee’s ingcapabilitytwoyearslater.Asthepro- the findings of a committee headed by written summary report begins by pro- grammatures,theAirForcewillevaluate formeraerospaceexecutiveNormanAu- claiming, simply, that the nation’s hu- itsfuturetankerneedsandbeginworkon gustine. (See “Choosing the pathway to manspaceflightprogram“appearstobe anextphase,KC-Y.Insimilarfashion,a space,”page32.) onanunsustainabletrajectory.” finalevaluationofrequirementswilltake NASA still lacks a knowledge-based Critics of the Augustine panel say place, as will a final phase, KC-Z. Al- acquisition strategy, a realistic cost esti- the group discussed many options but though not explicitly stated, KC-Y and mate, and sufficient funding for the Vi- made no clear recommendation. One KC-Z will not necessarily end up being sion, the GAO stated. It noted that the NASA employee called the panel’s re- thesameaircraftasKC-X. agencyhasnotproperlyaddressedtech- port“wishywashy,”andsummedupthe Thetankerprogramwillcontinueto nical challenges for Ares I and Orion, way many feel: “We don't know where fuel differences on Capitol Hill between such as limiting vibration during launch, we stand,” she said. “We don't know supporters of a team headed by Boeing eliminatingtheriskofhittingthelaunch whetherwe’llhaveajobnextweek.We and another led by Northrop Grumman towerduringliftoff,andtrimmingweight don’tknowwhetherwe’llfly.” and EADS. Meanwhile, some U.S. air- fromOrion. At press time, the Ares I rocket was mencontinuetomaintainandflytankers The GAO also criticized poorly about to undergo a major test, but—as that are older than their grandparents: phased funding that risks monetary the situation has been with the human Some of the 415 KC-135R Strato- shortfallsduringeveryfiscalyearthrough spaceflight program for the past several tankersinservicetodayhaveFY59serial 2012. This means that planned work is years—noonecouldsaywhatmighthap- numbers and will eventually reach 80 not being completed to support sched- pennext. RobertF.Dorr yearsofservicebeforebeingreplaced. ules and milestones. Also, says the re- [email protected] 8 AEROSPACEAMERICA/NOVEMBER2009 WATCH2.qxd:AA Template 10/14/09 2:52 PM Page 5 (Continuedfrompage5) 2010(9%ofthetotal),accordingtothe tional, where passenger numbers were Itisperhapsasignofthetimesthatof CenterforAsiaPacificAviation(CAPA). up 25% in the first eight months of the the69A330-200Fsand747-8Fsordered AirlinesintheUnitedArabEmiratesare yearoverthesameperiodin2008,and byaircargoairlines,justoverhalf(35)have settomorethantriplethenumberofair- freight handled rose to 47,221 tonnes, beenboughtbyAsiancarriers,withEuro- craft based in the country over the next anincreaseof9.6%. peanairlinesordering19,MiddleEastern two decades, according to CAPA. Du- airlines13,andU.S.operators12. bai’saircargotrafficgrewbyaround9% Managingnewassemblylines in2008over2007,andairfreighttraf- The volatility of demand and supply in GrowthintheMiddleEast fic was up 6.1% for the first seven theshort-term,however,ismakingitdif- The Middle East is emerging as a key months of this year. Dubai is now the ficultforbothAirbusandBoeingtoman- aviationgrowthareaforbothpassenger fourthbusiestinternationalaircargohub age the new freighter assembly lines. and freight services. Between January intheworld—aheadofTokyo,Shanghai, Airbushasalreadydelayedfirstdeliveries and June of this year, international air andFrankfurt. oftheA330-200Ffromthesecondhalf freightgrew3.5%yearonyear,accord- But it is not just in the oil-rich king- of 2009 into 2010. This has been ingtoanACIreportinSeptember.This doms of the gulf where the Middle East caused by a need to meet an increased yearMiddleEastairlineswilladd114air- is defying the global aviation downturn. demand for passenger versions of the craft to their fleets—equivalent to 8% of The fastest growing aviation hub in the aircraft, according to the company, fol- total worldwide deliveries, and 122 in worldisnowRafiqHaririBeirutInterna- lowingashortageofcapacitycreatedby ongoing delays to the Boeing 787 program. Some leasing customers, as a re- Events Calendar sult, have switched their orders from freighterstopassengeraircraft. NOV.3-6 According to 2008 production NDIAAircraftCombatSurvivabilitySymposium,Monterey,Calif. schedules, around 10 A330-200F air- Contact:MeredithGeary,703/247-9476;[email protected] craft should be rolling off the Toulouse productionlinein2010—aschedulethat NOV.15-20 will probably be revised considerably. It TwentiethInternationalCongressofMechanicalEngineering, willhavetobealteredfurtherifthereare Gramado,Brazil. anymoreshockstotheglobaleconomy, Contact:JoaoLuisAzevedo,[email protected] as nearly a third of A330-200F cus- JAN.4-7 tomersareinvestmentfunds. Forty-eighthAIAAAerospaceSciencesMeeting,includingtheNew If Airbus’ parent company EADS HorizonsForumandAerospaceExposition,Orlando,Fla. wins the USAF KC-X military refueler Contact:703/264-7500 contract, EADS would move A330- 200F production to Mobile, Ala. EADS JAN20-21 has already started work on the $600- AIAAStrategicandTacticalMissileSystemsConference(Secret/U.S. millionplant,followingtheawardofthe only),Monterey,Calif. initial contract, but that work has now Contact:703/264-7500 been halted pending a decision on the JAN.25-28 KC-Xcontract.EADSestimatesitwould AnnualReliabilityandMaintainabilitySymposium,SanJose,Calif. take 12-18 months to build the plant Contact:RaymondSears,603/863-2832;[email protected] and hire the 1,000 workers required. The first A330-200Fs could potentially FEB.2-4 be produced about six months after the U.S.AirForceT&EDays,Nashville,Tenn. firstmilitarytanker,accordingtoEADS. Contact:703/264-7500 FEB.10-11 (cid:1)(cid:1)(cid:1) ThirteenthAnnualFAACommercialSpaceTransportationConference, Despitethevolatilityinthemarkets,the Arlington,Va. order backlog for both the A330-200F Contact:703/264-7500 andthe747-8Fhasprovedrelativelyre- silient. The large number of investment FEB.14-17 fundcompaniesthathavestuckwiththe TwentiethAAS/AIAASpaceFlightMechanicsMeeting,SanDiego,Calif. Contact:A.Trask,[email protected] new Airbus and Boeing freighters—de- spitealackofcleardataonarecovery— FEB.23-26 suggest that the fundamentals remain Space,Propulsion&EnergySciencesInternationalForum,Laurel,Md. strong. PhilipButterworth-Hayes Contact:GlenRobertson,256/694-7941;[email protected] Brighton,U.K. [email protected] AEROSPACEAMERICA/NOVEMBER2009 9 InsightsLayout.qxd:AA Template 10/14/09 2:53 PM Page 2 DefensegiantsreshapeUAVindustry THEUAVINDUSTRYISBEINGTRANSFORMED wide, with a 7.8% compound annual astapleinNavy/MarineCorpsservices. as the megadefense companies seek to growth rate over the period from 2009 And AeroVironment became a giant in displace the small firms that have domi- to2018.Atatimewhentheoverallde- small UAVs, winning every competition natedthissectoruntilrecently. fensebudgetwillbeunderpressure,that foraU.S.militaryprogram ofrecord in Throughacquisitions,heavyresearch isarelativelystronggrowthrate. thissizecategory. spending, and teaming, large corpora- Not only is this market large and Not driven by the need to please tionsarerapidlychangingthefaceofthe growing,itisalsoeasilyaccessibletoU.S shareholders on a quarterly basis, these industry. Smaller companies are being contractors.TheTealforecastshowsthat small companies were willing to look at snapped up as their larger competitors theU.S.willbedominantoverthe2009- potentiallylongpayofftimes.Theyspent seektoestablishfootholdsinoneofthe 2018 period. It will account for 72% of heavily on R&D and were willing to fo- keygrowthmarketsofthefuture. R&D and 61% of procurement. Europe cus on small programs to develop their willbethesecondlargestmarket,closely market presence. The agility that came followedbyAsia. from being small was critical in building uptheirmarketpositions. Boonforsmallcompanies The explosive growth of the market in Largefirmsfollow recentyearshascreatedauniqueindus- Until recently, larger companies pos- trialenvironmentinwhichsmallcompa- sessedrelativelymodestfootholdsinthe nieshavethrived,successfullycompeting UAV industry, particularly in production withsignificantlylargerones. programs.NorthropGrumman,through General Atomics Aeronautical Sys- its 1999 acquisition of Teledyne Ryan, temsgrewtodominatethemedium-alti- wastheexception,havingthedeveloper tude long-endurance market with the of the Global Hawk as its entry into the Predator drone and its variants. AAI’s industry. Northrop Grumman used that Shadow became the basic tactical UAV acquisition as the seed of an effort that InApril,NorthropGrummanpurchasedthe oftheArmy.Insitu’sScanEaglebecame madeitthelargestUAVcompanyinthe KillerBeelineofUAVs. Explosivegrowth WORLDUAVEXPENDITURESFORECAST For many years, the UAV sector was R&Dandprocurement treatedasarelativelyminormarketwith- out the budget or large production runs $Billions to attract large defense companies. The $9 warsinIraqandAfghanistanhaveledto 8 a military transformation in which fund- ingandmilitaryadoptionratesaremak- 7 ingUAVsanincreasinglyattractivemar- 6 ket. The number of such vehicles in DOD inventories exploded from fewer 5 than 50 in 2000 to more than 6,000 4 lastyear. Now UAVs rank with homeland se- 3 curity and cyber security as one of the 2 hotgrowthareasfordefensecompanies. 1 They have the appeal of being a relatively dependable growth area at a time 0 when the overall defense budget will be 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 underpressure. The Teal Group forecasts that the U.S.R&D RestofworldR&D U.S.procurement Restofworldprocurement market will be worth $62 billion world- 10 AEROSPACEAMERICA/NOVEMBER2009