aerospace america june 2012

2012·7.8 MB·English

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June 2012
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Deconstructing
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A conversation with William H. Gerstenmaier
Fast track to truly fast flight
A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS
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June 2012
DEPARTMENTS
COMMENTARY 3 Page 4
Develop cislunar space next.
INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4
A long road for UAS integration in Europe/ Correspondence.
ASIA UPDATE 8
Asia in space: Trials and tribulations.
WASHINGTON WATCH 10
Struggles in a season of avoidance.
CONVERSATIONS 14
With William H. Gerstenmaier.
ELECTRONICS UPDATE 18
Reduced budgets change the game, and U-2 rises.
ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 22
NOVA: Bright new star for CubeSat testing.
GREEN ENGINEERING 26 Page 8
Fabrication techniques grow greener.
OUT OF THE PAST 46
CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 48
FEATURES
DECONSTRUCTING THE DEFENSE BUDGET 28
Page 18
The FY13 defense budget request reflects fiscal austerity, modernization
across the services, and a strategic shift.
by James W. Canan
NATIONAL HYPERSONIC CENTERS: FAST TRACK TO TRULY FAST FLIGHT 40
Three national centers dedicated to hypersonics research are bringing the
elusive goal of very high speed flight closer to reality.
by Dora Musielak
Page 26
BULLETIN
AIAA Meeting Schedule B2
AIAA Courses and Training Program B4
AIAA News B5
Meetings Programs B12
Call for Papers B24
COVER
The FY13 defense budget request is lower than originally planned, and has a different focus than earlier years. Page 40
Find out about that focus by turning to page 30. DOD photo by Sgt. Christopher R. Rye, U.S. Marine Corps.
Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly, except August, by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344
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Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 50, No. 6.
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is a publication of the American Institute
of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Elaine J. Camhi
Editor-in-Chief
Patricia Jefferson
Associate Editor Develop cislunar space next
Greg Wilson
Production Editor
Our national space program is adrift, without an attainable and affordable
Jerry Grey,Editor-at-Large
strategic horizon. A vibrant, competitive society relies on constant advances
Christine Williams,Editor AIAA Bulletin
in space technology, including weather monitoring, positioning, global
Correspondents communications, remote sensing, national security surveillance, and
Robert F. Dorr,Washington countless other activities. The U.S. deserves and expects a vital, active,
Philip Butterworth-Hayes,Europe
and affordable space program that fundamentally contributes to national
Michael Westlake,Hong Kong
economic, scientific and security needs.
Contributing Writers Experience with the space shuttle and international space station
Richard Aboulafia, James W. Canan, demonstrated that people and machines working together in space can
Marco Cáceres, Craig Covault, Leonard assemble, maintain, and repair large, distributed, highly capable space
David, Philip Finnegan, Edward systems. Satellites are located in a variety of orbits, ranging from low
Goldstein, Tom Jones, James Oberg,
Earth orbit to distances beyond the Moon. Gaining the ability to routinely
David Rockwell, J.R. Wilson
access the space between Earth and Moon (cislunar space) to repair,
Fitzgerald Art & Design upgrade, and remove assets would fundamentally change the economics
Art Direction and Design and template of spaceflight. Access is costly, because everything must be
launched from Earth’s surface—the deepest gravity well in the inner solar
Michael Griffin,President system. The current operational template for space is to design custom
Robert S. Dickman,Publisher
spacecraft, launch them on expendable vehicles, then use and, ultimately,
Craig Byl,Manufacturing and Distribution
discard them.
STEERING COMMITTEE Learning to use lunar resources can change this template. By pro-
Col. Neal Barlow, USAF Academy; visioning ourselves with material already in space, we create an explosion
Carol Cash, Carol Cash & Associates; in capability leading to unprecedented levels of space development.
Brian D. Dailey; Basil Hassan, Sandia; Establishing (initially) robotic resource-processing facilities at the poles
Robert E. Lindberg,National Institute of
of the Moon for water extraction allows for the manufacture of rocket
Aerospace;Vigor Yang,Georgia Institute of
propellant from lunar ice and the development of a reusable, refuelable
Technology;Susan X. Ying; Boeing
space transportation system. Areas near the poles also provide near con-
EDITORIAL BOARD stant sunlight for power generation.
Ned Allen,Jean-Michel Contant, Once the civil space program demonstrates the feasibility of using
Eugene Covert,L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, space resources, opportunities for economic and industrial development
Michael Francis, Cam Martin,
will rapidly unfold. A cislunar infrastructure serving both commercial and
Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell
national needs creates a ‘transcontinental railroad’ in space.
It is critical that the U.S. spearhead the movement of humanity into
ADVERTISING
Robert Silverstein,240.498.9674 cislunar space lest powers that do not believe in free enterprise or cham-
[email protected] pion liberty fill this leadership vacuum. Our ultimate goal for spaceflight
Russell Brody 732.832.2977 is to freely and routinely send human and robotic assets and resources
[email protected] needed to do any job in space, anywhere, for however long they are
needed. Although we do not have such capability now, it can be created
Ross B. Garelick Bell Business Manager
using the Moon’s natural resources to supply our space transportation
Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 system and new off-planet industry. The first step in this process is to
Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA define our objectives and then define the launch vehicles and the human
20191-4344. Changes of address should be and robotic systems and spacecraft needed to realize our objectives.
sent by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax This new direction can be pursued under constrained budgets by creat-
at 703.264.7606.
ing a flexible architecture that uses small, well-defined, incremental yet
Send correspondence to [email protected].
cumulative steps. Such a goal redirects the space program from flags-and-
June 2012, Vol. 50, No. 6 footprints to routine space access and development. It will create new
economic zones that benefit the terrestrial economy. Learning how to
access and harvest the resources of space will spur unprecedented levels
of space development, discovery, and the creation of new wealth. Cislunar
space is the logical next step for America’s space program.
Paul Spudis
www.cislunarnext.org
BEATlayout0612_Layout 1 5/14/12 3:24 PM Page 2
A long road for UAS integration
in Europe
THE TECHNICAL AND REGULATORY quencies, and we need to analyze some considerable successes. In the
problems of agreeing on a common which type of equipment is needed U.K., the ASTRAEA (autonomous sys-
European-wide approach to integrat- for what type of mission, from the tems technology-related airborne eval-
ing unmanned air systems (UASs) in very heavy to the very light. And we’ll uation and assessment) consortium is
European civilian-controlled airspace need to see whether we need Euro- a £62-million program to demonstrate
will make it unlikely that UASs will be pean legislation for this.” separation assurance and control tech-
routinely sharing airspace with airlin- Eurocontrol forecasts that by 2020 nologies along with a forced landing
ers before 2020 in Europe. As else- there could be 200 MALE (medium-al- system, communication system, sev-
where around the world, a number of titude, long-endurance) UASs and 10 eral new sensors, and autonomous de-
complex technology and regulatory HALE (high-altitude, long-endurance) cision-making software.
hurdles remain to be overcome, but in UASs operating in Europe. “Assuming BAE Systems has flown its Jet-
Europe the institutional problems look a high utilization—that is, flying for 12 stream testbed as part of the second
particularly complicated. hours out of every 24 hours—these phase of the program, which runs un-
“The first step is to establish the UASs could accumulate 920,000 flight- til March 2013, as a surrogate UAS to
right regulatory framework to enable hours each year,” says the organiza- test control systems. The two on-pilots
them to fly in nonsegregated airspace; tion. “This is approximately 6% of the hand over control to the prototype
it’s not a new set of regulations but an current IFR [instrument flight rules] avionic systems during the flights;
adaptation of existing Single European flight-hours per year.” around 20 of these are planned for
regulations,” according to Luc Tytgat, this year. Some will include an in-
who heads the Single Sky Directorate Gauging the difficulty truder aircraft to help test the surro-
at the Brussels-based European organ- So how difficult will it be to integrate gate UAV sense-and-avoid systems.
ization for the safety of air navigation, inhabited and noninhabited air vehi-
Eurocontrol. “Second, we have to en- cles in Europe’s busy airspace? Advanced airborne technologies
sure the UASs are as safe as manned According to Tytgat: “Legally it’s In 2009 the European Defence Agency
aircraft and can safely fly across bor- easy; technically it’s easy. The prob- (a Brussels-based body comprising the
ders. What will happen if a UAS takes lem is to synchronize the implementa- defense departments of the 26 EU
off, for example, from Luxembourg, tion and adopt a single set of legisla- states) began work on a €60-million
flies over France, but has a crash and tion at the European level.” UAS midair collision avoidance system
the pilot is based in Germany? We An important first step has already (MIDCAS), with Sweden, France, Ger-
have to work out where the responsi- been taken in researching appropriate many, Italy, and Spain as participating
bilities and liabilities lie. technologies covering sense-and-avoid, member nations. The first flight of the
“Third, we have to have standard- datalink, and safe recovery from un- MIDCAS demonstrator, which will test
ized and harmonized equipment for planned changes to automatic flight an automated collision avoidance
sense-and-avoid and other technolo- profile functions that will need to be function, is scheduled for next year.
gies. Today there are different techni- brought into operation. There is con- Other elements in the research pro-
cal solutions and different radio fre- siderable debate, however, about how gram include datalinks, communica-
mature these systems really are. tions, and training.
“I haven’t seen any technology yet The key to developing mature air-
to do what is necessary,” says Geoff borne technologies is the develop-
Ambler, commercial director of the ment of a new kind of transponder,
U.K.-based civil UAS trade association according to independent ATC safety
EuroUSC. “It is probably 5-10 years expert David Gleave.
away in terms of availability, and then “The UAS community would rather
if you add assessment and validation, that the other targets carried the com-
you are looking at 15 years.” plex technology, to minimize their on-
This seems a very pessimistic view. board power processing requirements
After all, European regulators, indus- and external skin sensor requirements,
try, and aircraft operators have been so solutions such as ADS-B would be
Luc Tytgat
working on the issue for years, and their preferred answer,” says Gleave.
demonstrations have already yielded “The pilot-in-command is still respon-
4 AEROSPACE AMERICA/JUNE 2012
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sible for taking all necessary actions to transatlantic in our approach,”
avoid a collision. Changes to, and clar- says Eurocontrol’s Tytgat, who
ification of, legislation is still necessary believes the first civil applica-
to integrate UAV operations safely tions for this technology will be
with normal civilian traffic in daily op- “courier companies flying UASs
erations. Contingency procedures still over the ocean. So we will need
have to be refined for the failure of in- to coordinate standards and fre-
dividual items of equipment, as well quencies, for example, for this
as lack of communication with the to happen.”
UAV and its own zone of surveillance But even developing a com-
BAE Systems is using its Jetstream testbed
for sense and avoid.” as a surrogate UAS to test control systems. mon set of European standards
The key principle here is equiva- might prove a lengthy, complex
lence—UASs must have safety systems procedure. “Europe, as a con-
that are at least as good as those on Harmonization questions cept, is still highly fragmented,” says
manned aircraft, comprising radar or Both MIDCAS and ASTRAEA program Gleave. “On a UAS flight that crosses
radar-like capabilities for all-weather, managers are working with national national boundaries, are both countries
day-and-night operations, the appro- and European regulators to ensure the members of NATO, the European De-
priate electrooptics, some kind of air- authorities can shape new standards fence Agency, Eurocontrol, and the
craft collision avoidance system, or and procedures, and not just for Euro- European Union? Is the air traffic con-
ACAS, and a transponder and antenna pean environments. The European trol service provided by each nation
to cope with Mode-S and ADS-B sig- Commission (EC) has organized a se- up to the border, or is airspace dele-
nals. However, all these capabilities ries of workshops as part of its UAS gated between the countries or even to
would need to be packaged in a sys- ‘panel process,’ which will deliver a another service provider not related to
tem with much smaller size, weight, UAS strategy for Europe, encompass- the two countries?
and power requirements than those ing regulators, operators, industry, and “Does the airspace through which
on a manned aircraft. research organizations. In May the the flight will pass have the same clas-
Any UAS ACAS equipment would panel was due to examine how Euro- sification on both sides of the border?
have to be designed so that collision pean standards might be harmonized Has the national aviation regulator
avoidance advice is automatically pre- with ICAO and FAA standards. passed adequate regulations to allow
sented to the remote pilot. The ACAS “We have to be ready to be the flight to be carried out following
antennae would need to be designed
to withstand more aggressive maneu-
European institutions and their UAS integration roles
vering than that traditionally seen in
•JARUS:A group of European national •Eurocontrol: The agency is developing
conventional civil fixed-wing aircraft,
authorities developing operational and tech- ATM requirements for the integration of UASs
and be able to operate alongside other
nical regulations for UASs. in segregated airspace and the harmonization
boxes of data-processing and datalink
•European Organisation for Civil Aviation of procedures for the use of military UAVs
systems without impairing perform-
Equipment Working Group 73: Developing a outside segregated airspace.
ance. The ACAS must also be able to technical standards framework that would •European Defence Agency:As part of
operate within guaranteed specific re- allow UASs to operate within the constraints the European Framework Cooperation for
sponse times. of the current ATM system without segregation Security and Defence, which was launched in
Eurocontrol has commissioned from other airspace users. It has four working 2009 by European defense ministers, the
U.K. research agency QinetiQ to un- groups: SG1 UAS Operations; SG2 UAS Air- insertion of UASs into regulated air traffic
dertake a research study known as worthiness; SG3 Command, Control, Communi- was singled out as one of the areas most
cations, Spectrum and Security; and SG4 UAV benefiting from enhanced European civil/
CAUSE (collision avoidance require-
under 150 kg. military cooperation. The EDA has for many
ments for unmanned aircraft systems).
•European Commission:At the Paris Air years been involved in coordinating pan-
Its purpose is to assess various aspects
Show is June 2011 the commission launched European research on behalf of defense
of potential UAS equipage with a colli-
a process for developing a strategy for the departments.
sion avoidance system as part of the future of UAS in the EU, including work to •European Aviation Safety Agency:
UAS’s sense-and-avoid functionality, define the economic importance of UASs; Europe’s pan-national safety regulator, plans
and to advise Eurocontrol and other insertion into nonsegregated airspace (including to initiate work on developing rules for UASs
regulatory bodies such as EASA (Euro- radio frequency management); safety-related above 150 kg in 2013.
pean Aviation Safety Agency) and issues, airworthiness, the societal dimension, •The UAS working group at the Aerospace
ICAO (International Civil Aviation Or- and R&D. The commission also directly funds and Defence Industries Association of Europe:
UAS research as part of its seventh framework Provides a single point of contact for industry
ganization) on how best to incorporate
research program. views into policymaking bodies.
UASs into nonsegregated airspaces.
AEROSPACE AMERICA/JUNE 2012 5
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the lead of Eurocontrol and the Euro- is natural to ask what it is doing there.” applicable and might only need small
pean Aviation Safety Agency in pro- This was the subject of the No- adjustments to accommodate for the
ducing harmonized templates? Have vember 2011 UAS Commission work- specificities of UAS technology.
the national parliaments amended shop, which discussed some of the is- But how, exactly, Europe’s citizens
their national laws to allow the flight sues involving social acceptance of are to be involved in the process of in-
to be carried out following the lead of UASs, along with questions regarding tegrating these UASs into the conti-
the European Commission and EASA? responsibility, liability, insurance, pri- nent’s airspace has yet to be mapped
For a flight across continental United vacy, and data protection. The work- out in detail.
States, these issues are far easier to ad- shop concluded that the current legal Philip Butterworth-Hayes
dress between the various elements of framework governing privacy protec- Brighton, U.K.
the government and UAV operators,” tion, data processing, and liability is [email protected]
says Gleave.
Much of the preparatory work in
establishing a pan-European regula-
tory and standards regime has already
been done. The EC strategy is linked
to the Single European Sky EU master
plan and its SESAR technology re- In response to the Correspondence New Green Propulsion System,” pre-
search area. The European Commis- submitted by Robert L. Sackheim and sented at the 2011 Joint Propulsion
sion has also funded a number of tac- Yvonne C. Brill (May, page 8) regard- Conference.
tical UAS research programs as part of ing to The greening of satellite propul- •Thrust chamber materials are Ir/
its sixth and seventh framework re- sion (February, page 26): ECAPS un- Rh, or other refractory metals. Impor-
search strategy. Meanwhile the EDA— derstands and appreciates that there tantly, however, the increased costs of
which is not an EC body but an EU are many technical issues which must these higher temperature resistant ma-
intergovernmental agency—has spon- be addressed in order to fully transi- terials are more than offset by the cost
sored a number of programs, includ- tion away from hydrazine. We have savings provided by simplified trans-
ing the EREA for UAS consortium, or therefore made a concerted effort to portation and handling—as HPGP is
E4U—which has identified the rele- proactively disseminate as much infor- transport classified as UN/DOT 1.4S
vant technology gaps for flying UASs mation about our High-Performance (allowing shipment on commercial
in unsegregated airspace—and the Green Propulsion (HPGP) technology passenger aircraft) and handling/fuel-
Air4All, MIDCAS, and SIGAT research as possible via as many open forums ing operations are able to be per-
areas. as possible. As a result, most of the formed without SCAPE suits.
In March EASA announced plans questions raised by the respondents •With respect to integrated propul-
to initiate work in 2013 on developing have already been addressed in vari- sion system synergies, a 220-N thruster
rules for UASs larger than 150 kg. ous conference presentations and is currently in development and fur-
Meanwhile, Eurocontrol is developing publicly available technical papers. ther up-scaling to 400 N is being as-
UAS ATM requirements into a compre- In response to the specific items sessed. Since many geosynchronous
hensive set of globally interoperable raised by the respondents: communication satellites implement
certification and operational approval •The combustion by-products of an apogee engine of about 400 N, a
criteria requiring UASs to fit in with HPGP are H O (50%), N (23%), H combination of large and small HPGP
2 2 2
the existing ATM system, rather than (16%), CO (6%), and CO (5%). Wit- thrusters could provide a shared-tank
2
adapting the system to accommodate ness plate and electron scanning mi- architecture similar to that of current
the unmanned systems. croscope analysis have also been per- ‘dual mode’ hydrazine systems.
formed to determine the extremely •Because HPGP is a blended solu-
Finding acceptance low levels (≤5 ppm) of other plume tion, performance enhancements can
There is also a third element to con- constituents. be achieved by altering the constituent
sider, beyond the merely technical and •Catalyst preheat requirements and ratios. As a result, it is possible to in-
regulatory. PRISMA thruster in-flight preheating crease performance characteristics such
“There is a further caveat—accept- power consumption were presented as specific impulse and density im-
ability to citizens [who will be] over- in “Spacecraft System Level Design pulse for shorter duration applications
flown by these type of vehicles,” says with Regards to Incorporation of a such as launch vehicle roll control
Tytgat. “We don’t want to start this sort
of program without having a debate
with citizens about the acceptability of
All letters addressed to the editor are considered to be submitted for possible publication, unless
UASs. We are used to seeing aircraft it is expressly stated otherwise. All letters are subject to editing for length and to author response.
flying overhead, but if you see an un- Letters should be sent to: Correspondence, Aerospace America, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive,
manned helicopter flying overhead, it Suite 500, Reston, VA 20191-4344, or by e-mail to: [email protected].
6 AEROSPACE AMERICA/JUNE 2012
BEATlayout0612_Layout 1 5/14/12 3:24 PM Page 5
thrusters. Viability for use in gas gener-
Events Calendar
ator applications (such as auxiliary
power units) has also been assessed,
JUNE 4-6
and work continues in this area.
Eighteenth AIAA/CEAS Aeroacoustics Conference,
•Compatibility testing has been per-
Colorado Springs, Colorado.
formed with most types of commer-
Contact: 703/264-7500
cially available hydrazine propulsion
system components, including tank di- JUNE 4-6
aphragm elastomers, seals, and pro- Nineteenth St. Petersburg International Conference on Integrated
pellant valves. Navigation Systems, St. Petersburg, Russia.
•Hydrazine fueling and subsequent Contact: Prof. V. Peshekhonov, [phone]; [email protected];
system pressurization operations re- www.elektropribor.spb.ru
quire not only the few individuals JUNE 7
donning SCAPE suits, but also a signif- Aerospace Today...And Tomorrow—An Executive Symposium,
icant number of safety, fire, and med- Williamsburg, Virginia.
ical personnel to all be in stand-by Contact: Grant Belden, [email protected]
mode. None of these additional stand-
JUNE 18-20
by personnel were required during
Third International Air Transport and Operations Symposium and Sixth
the PRISMA HPGP fueling operations.
International Meeting for Aviation Product Support Process,
Finally, the respondents acknowl-
Delft, The Netherlands.
edge—but downplay the significance
Contact: Adel Ghobbar, 31 15 27 85346; [email protected]
of the fact—that HPGP has been flight-
proven to provide higher performance JUNE 19-21
than monopropellant hydrazine. This AIAA Infotech@Aerospace Conference, Garden Grove, California.
attribute by itself offers an important Contact: 703/264-7500
capability increase to many satellite
JUNE 25-28
missions. However, when combined
Twenty-eighth Aerodynamics Measurement Technology, Ground Testing,
with the numerous other benefits af-
and Flight Testing Conferences, including the Aerospace T&E Days Forum;
forded by HPGP (such as air transport,
30th AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Conference; Fourth AIAA Atmospheric
no SCAPE, insensitivity to air/humidity
Space Environments Conference; Sixth AIAA Flow Control Conference;
and shock, low toxicity, non-carcino-
42nd AIAA Fluid Dynamics Conference and Exhibit; 43rd AIAA
genic, etc.), the ‘big picture’ becomes
Plasmadynamics and Lasers Conference; 43rd AIAA Thermophysics
even clearer.
Conference. New Orleans, Louisiana.
Aaron T. Dinardi Contact: 703/264-7500
ECAPS
JUNE 27-29
American Control Conference, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
QQQ
Contact: Tariq Samad, 763/954-6349; [email protected]
The otherwise excellent article Orbit-
ing twins tackle Moon’s mysteries JULY 11-14
(February, page 32) contains an egre- ICNPAA 2012 - Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Aerospace and
gious error in the first sentence. Sciences, Vienna, Austria.
GRAIL’s cost is reported as $696 mil- Contact: Seenith Sivasundaram, 386/761-9829; [email protected]
lion when it is actually $496.2 million.
JULY 14-22
Along with the enviable technical
Thirty-ninth Scientific Assembly of the Committee on Space Research
achievement of precision formation
and Associated Events 2012, Mysore, India.
flying around another planetary body
Contact: http://www.cospar-assembly.org
and the science being enabled by the
remarkably precise observations now JULY 15-19
being collected, the GRAIL team is Forty-second International Conference on Environmental Systems,
equally proud of meeting every proj- San Diego, California.
ect milestone on schedule and deliver- Contact: 703/264-7500
ing the twin spacecraft into lunar orbit JULY 30-AUG. 1
with a healthy budget margin. Forty-eighth AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and
A planetary mission delivering un- Exhibit: Future Propulsion - Innovative, Affordable, Sustainable,
der cost should be celebrated . Atlanta, Georgia.
Maria T. Zuber Contact: 703/264-7500
GRAIL principal investigator
AEROSPACE AMERICA/JUNE 2012 7
ASIAlayout0612_Layout 1 5/14/12 3:25 PM Page 2
Asia in space: Trials and tribulations
A FLURRYOFACTIVITYINASIANROCK- The southern path from North Ko- As with the earlier failures, this
etry during recent months has appar- rea’s northwest was chosen as the di- launch was timed to help celebrate a
ently brought one major failure, one rection in which to aim the three-stage major political event—in this case, the
significant success, and the expectation Unha (Milky Way) 3 rocket, ostensibly 100th anniversary of the birth of the
of a major step toward performing an to place a Bright Star weather satellite country’s founding father, Kim Il-sung.
orbital rendezvous. into a 310-mi.-high polar orbit, though Thus it was not a test so much as an
The failure came with the first- some suspect this was really a missile intended demonstration of power.
stage breakup—or possible self de- test in disguise. Moreover, a widely expected under-
struction—of North Korea’s latest ma- But the rocket broke up about 90 ground nuclear bomb test (the coun-
jor rocket test in April. The significant seconds after launch and fell into the try’s third) predicted soon afterward
success came a few days later, when sea west of South Korea. This was the may well have been intended to mark
India launched a medium-range ver- fourth failure of a major North Korean North Korea joining the world’s nu-
sion of its Agni (Fire) missile, which is rocket since 1998—the country has not clear missile ‘club.’ Instead, the failed
capable of reaching cities in northern yet managed to place a satellite into launching demonstrated a continuing
China—thus making up some distance orbit, although it has made claims to lack of capability in long-range and
in the nuclear deterrence stakes with the contrary. orbital rocketry.
Beijing. And the major technological It is regarded as cer-
step is that this month China may tain that North Korea
achieve a space rendezvous controlled The exact cause of the April failure of North Korea’s Unha 3 will try again to launch a
rocket is still unknown, at least to the West.
by human astronauts, possibly includ- long-range rocket, prob-
ing a woman. ably in the next two or
three years. The coun-
Failure and conjecture try’s short-range rocket
North Korea’s failure brought with it a experience came from
welter of political speculation and the former Soviet Union
pressure, none of it unexpected. Con- and was sold on to Iran
jecture centered on what went wrong, (which had observers at
with the prime candidate among ana- the April 13 launch), but
lysts being a structural failure at or the North Koreans are
about Max Q, the point at which aero- finding it hard to shift to
dynamic pressure is greatest after longer range rockets.
launch. This is where rockets generally What is not certain is
throttle back to ease structural stresses whether this impover-
from vibration until the critical time ished country has the re-
has passed. After this, as air pressure sources to begin, let
decreases with altitude, the rocket can alone sustain, the level
be throttled up again to reach orbit. of testing that would
The other widely discussed possi- help bring reliability to
bility is a guidance failure that made it its rocket program. Until
necessary to destroy the rocket before or unless this happens, it
it intruded into other nations’ airspace. seems likely that the U.S.
North Korea’s position leaves it only can ignore North Korea
two viable launch directions: eastward, as a source of nuclear
toward and over Japan (which proved missile threats. Even
highly unpopular the last time North with a reliable rocket,
Korea tried and failed to launch a the time taken to fuel it
satellite to orbit), and southward, past (Unha 3 and its prede-
and near South Korea and the Philip- cessors were all liquid
pines. Precise control of the rocket’s fueled) would allow so
path was therefore essential. much warning that the
8AEROSPACE AMERICA/JUNE 2012