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AAcover07-0809.qxd:.qxd 6/18/09 11:47 AM Page 1 7 -8 July-August 2009 A E R O S P A C E A M E R IC A JU LY -A U G U S T 2 0 0 9 A hot rod for the solar system ABL aims at final tests Business aircraft market falls hard A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS toc.jul-aug2009.qxd:AA Template 6/19/09 12:00 PM Page 1 July-August2009 DEPARTMENTS Page8 EDITORIAL 3 Aworthwhileeffortallaround. Page20 INTERNATIONALBEAT 4 Fuelefficiencyimprovementsescalate. ASIAUPDATE 8 Joiningthespacerace,carefully. WASHINGTONWATCH 12 Lookingtonewleaders. CONVERSATIONS 16 WithKenHodgkins. VIEWFROMHERE 20 Page26 FourtestflightsthatboostedApollo11. INDUSTRYINSIGHTS 24 Navigationsatellitesfuelpayloadgrowth. AIRCRAFTUPDATE 26 Businessaircraftmarketfallshard. HONORS&AWARDS 30 OUTOFTHEPAST 50 CAREEROPPORTUNITIES 54 Page32 FEATURES GOCEADDSGRAVITYTOESA’SAGENDA 32 ESA’sGravityFieldandSteadyStateOceanCirculationExplorersatellitewill providenewinsightsintooneofEarth’smostfundamentalforces. byJ.R.Wilson AHOTRODFORTHESOLARSYSTEM 38 Anastronaut’sconceptforaplasmarocketthatcouldgettoMarsinamonth Page38 isdueforaspaceworkout. byFrankSietzenJr. AIRBORNELASERAIMSATFINALTESTS 44 Afterachievingbreakthroughsoncebelievedimpossible,theAirborneLaser maysoonbereadyforpracticaluseincombat. byJ.R.Wilson BULLETIN Page44 AIAAMeetingSchedule B2 AIAACoursesandTrainingProgram B4 AIAANews B5 MeetingsPrograms B18 CallsforPapers B30 COVER ESA’sGravityFieldandSteadyStateOceanCirculationExplorerer,nowinorbit,willbetakingmeasurementsthatwill provideawholenewlevelofunderstandingabutgravity.Tolearnmore,turntothestorybeginningonpage32. AerospaceAmerica(ISSN0740-722X)ispublishedmonthlybytheAmericanInstituteofAeronauticsandAstronautics,Inc.at1801AlexanderBellDrive,Reston,Va.20191-4344[703/264-7577]. Subscriptionrateis50%ofduesforAIAAmembers(andisnotdeductibletherefrom).Nonmembersubscriptionprice:U.S.andCanada,$163,foreign,$200.Singlecopies$20each. Postmaster:Sendaddresschangesandsubscriptionorderstoaddressabove,attentionAIAACustomerService,703/264-7500.PeriodicalpostagepaidatHerndon,VA,andatadditional mailingoffices.Copyright©2009bytheAmericanInstituteofAeronauticsandAstronautics,Inc.,allrightsreserved.ThenameAerospaceAmericaisregisteredbytheAIAAintheU.S.Patent andTrademarkOffice.40,000copiesofthisissueprinted.ThisisVolume47,No.7-8. july.edit.qxd:AA Template 7/27/09 3:08 PM Page 1 ® isapublicationoftheAmericanInstitute ofAeronauticsandAstronautics ElaineJ.Camhi Editor-in-Chief PatriciaJefferson AssociateEditor GregWilson Awinningcombination ProductionEditor JerryGrey,Editor-at-Large ChristineWilliams,EditorAIAABulletin Eveninthefaceofdecliningairpassengertrafficandconcomitantdecliningrev- enues,thereisstillmuchgoodnewstobefoundontheaviationfront.Effortsto Correspondents conserveandimprovefuelconsumption,throughamixofstreamlinednumbersof RobertF.Dorr,Washington flightsandinnovativeairtrafficmanagementsystems,combinedwithnewengine PhilipButterworth-Hayes,Europe MichaelWestlake,HongKong start-upsthatburnleanerandcleanerandtheexplorationofnewfuelmixesand entirelynewfamiliesoffuels,shouldnotonlysavebothfuelandcash,theyarea ContributingWriters netpositiveineffortstoprotecttheenvironment. RichardAboulafia,JohnBinder,James Forexample,inEurope,amongthenumerouseffortsaimedatimproving W.Canan,MarcoCáceres,EdwardFlinn, energyefficiencyandlesseningtheenvironmentalimpactofairtrafficisthe TomJones,ThéoPirard,DavidRockwell, FrankSietzen,J.R.Wilson EuropeanCommission’sSingleEuropeanSkyinitiative.Byrestructuringthe airspacebasedonusageratherthannationalborders,thusstreamliningand FitzgeraldArt&Design harmonizingairtrafficmanagementthroughoutthecontinent,theresultingair ArtDirectionandDesign trafficpatternsshouldincreaseefficiencyoffuelconsumptionwhilereducing CraigByl,ManufacturingandDistribution aircraftemissions. DavidW.Thompson,President IntheU.S.,theNextGenerationAirTransportationSystemisbeingdevel- RobertS.Dickman,Publisher opedwithmanyofthesamegoalsinmind.NextGenaimstotransformthena- tionalairspacesystem,movingitfromaground-basedoperationtooneusing STEERINGCOMMITTEE VinceBoles,AerospaceCorp.;PhilipHattis, globalpositioningsystemsatellites.AccordingtotheFederalAviationAdminis- DraperLaboratory;LauraMcGill,Raytheon; tration,“Whenfullyimplemented,NextGenwillsafelyallowmoreaircrafttofly GeorgeMuellner,Boeing;MerriSanchez, morecloselytogetheronmoredirectroutes,reducingdelays,andproviding NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministra- unprecedentedbenefitsfortheenvironmentandtheeconomythroughreduc- tion;MarySnitch,LockheedMartin;John tionsincarbonemissions,fuelconsumption,andnoise.” Whitesides,GeorgeWashingtonUniversity Atthesametime,theworld’stwolargestcommercialaircraftmanufactur- EDITORIALBOARD ers,BoeingandAirbusIndustrie,aredesigningtheirlatestaircraftwithfuel economyasaprimedriver.Accordingtocompanydata,Boeing’snewestair- NedAllen,LockheedMartinAeronautics; Jean-MichelContant,EADS;Eugene liner,the787,wasdesignedtouse20%lessfuelthanotheraircraftoncompa- Covert,MassachusettsInstituteofTechnol- rableroutes.NewengineadvancesbyGeneralElectricandRolls-Royce,both ogy;L.S.“Skip”Fletcher,TexasA&MUni- supplierstotheDreamliner,areexpectedtocontributeupto8%ofincreased versity;MichaelFrancis,UnitedTechnologies; efficiency.Atthesametime,AirbusboaststhatitsA350XWBuses“innovative ChristianMari,Teuchos;CamMartin, technologiesandproceduresthatresultinimprovedfuelefficiency,reduced NASADryden;DonRichardson,Donrich emissionsandlowernoiselevelsduringdeparture,cruiseandarrival.” Research;DouglasYazell,Honeywell Whileallofthisactivityisgoingon,therearealsoexploratoryefforts ADVERTISING aimedatexaminingtheuseofalternativefuelsources.Everythingfromsolar NationalDisplayandClassified: powertohydrogenfuelcellstoalgae-basedfuelstoamixincludingoilfrom RobertSilverstein,240.498.9674 thetropicaljetrophaseedisbeingtested.Severalairlineshavealreadyflight [email protected] testedsomeofthese—ContinentalAirlinesflewaBoeing737witha50-50mix WestCoastDisplay:GregCruse, ofregularfuelandanorganic;VirginAtlanticflewfromLondontoAmsterdam 949.361.1870/[email protected] withorganic,oil-basedfuelinoneofitsfueltanks,andAirNewZealandand SendmaterialstoCraigByl,AIAA,1801 JapanAirlineshaveconductedbiofueltestflights—andothersareintheplan- AlexanderBellDrive,Suite500,Reston,VA ningstages. 20191-4344.Changesofaddressshouldbe Althoughtheyaccountforonly2-4%ofgreenhousegasemissions,airlines senttoCustomerServiceatthesameaddress, andaircraftandenginemanufacturershavemovedtotheforefrontineffortsto [email protected],orbyfaxat bringthosenumbersdown.Andwhilethesemaybeexpensiveeffortsinthe 703/264-7606. shortterm,thelong-termpayoffshouldprovetobeaboonnotonlytothe SendLetterstotheEditortoElaineCamhi worldweliveinbuttothebottomline.Notabadreturn. [email protected] ElaineCamhi July-August2009,Vol.47,No.7 Editor-in-Chief BEATlayout709.qxd:AA Template 6/17/09 1:46 PM Page 2 Fuelefficiencyimprovementsescalate IT IS 2050. NEARly 90% OF THE wORld’S targeting a 2% reduction in fuel con- gestsaircraftfuelefficiencyisimproving airliners have algae-derived fuel in their sumption by 2011 through a combina- atarateof17.5%every10years.These open-rotorengines.Anewgenerationof tion of airframe drag reduction and efficiencylevelshavebeenachievedwith blended-wing aircraft is about to enter CFM-56engineimprovements. oneortwostepchangesindesign—such service,poweredbyaglobalnetworkof as the introduction of high-bypass en- directed energy beams and flown, of Realitycheck gines—coupled with year-on-year “tacti- course,withoutpilotsonboard.Theair- To meet the targets manufacturers and cal” improvements. The pace of these space system is working at 98% effi- research agencies have set for 2020, incremental, or short-term, improve- ciency. Every aircraft—at least, those there will need to be some major “step- mentsinfuelefficiencyhasbeenstepped subsonic aircraft that operate within the change” improvements in engine and up in recent years—IATA’s efficiency Earth’s atmosphere—can fly the most airframedesign,alongwiththeyear-on- goalof10%fuelimprovementsbetween fuel-efficient route possible, changing yearincrementalfuelefficiencydevelop- 2000and2010wasreachedbeforethe heightanddirectionautomaticallytoop- ments. For example, Europe’s “Clean endof2006. timize the prevailing weather and traffic Sky”consortiumofaerospaceindustries Pressure to reduce the environmen- conditions. has pledged €1.6 billion over the next talimpactofaviationandescalatingfuel Meanwhileattheworld’sbusiestair- five years to develop technologies that costs over the past few years has led to port, in the Persian Gulf, aircraft land will deliver a 50% reduction in CO severalinitiativesforfindingnewwaysto 2 andtakeoffevery20sec.Theirfinalde- emissions through drastic reduction of remove weight from aircraft, increase scent paths vary between 3 deg and 7 fuelconsumption. fuel efficiency, and provide the most di- deg, to offset the wake vortex problems Buthowrealisticisthis? rect—or the most efficient—routes from caused by a 20-seat aircraft following 1 Historic trends in improving effi- airporttoairport.Forexample,CFMIn- n.mi. behind a 2,000-seater. Once on ciency levels show that aircraft entering ternational’s Tech Insertion, Interna- the ground, planes taxi automatically at today’sfleetsare70%morefuelefficient tional Aero Engines’ SelectOne, and high speed to their gates. Fatal airliner thantheywere40yearsago,whichsug- Rolls-Royce’s Extended Performance accidentshavebeenreducedtojustone ortwoayear. Short-termfocus Wingletscanoffera5-7%improvementinfuelburn. For many in the aerospace sector, the burningissueishowtheindustrywillsur- vive the next few months, rather than how it will deliver an ideal air transport system in the next 40 years. Over the pastyear,manufacturershavecomeun- der intense pressure to concentrate on making the current aircraft fleet more affordable. For example, Airbus and Boeing bothhavedevelopedsomefuelefficiency improvements to their current short/ medium-haulmodels.InAprilAirbusan- nouncedthatitsA320familywouldben- efit from new aerodynamic improvements—a redesign of the surge tank inlet, a redesign of upper belly fairing, and a reshaped engine pylon—that to- getherwillproducea1%cruisedragre- duction.InthesamemonthBoeingalso announced an efficiency improvement package to its Boeing 737 NG range, 4 AEROSPACEAMERICA/JULY-AUGUST2009 BEATlayout709.qxd:AA Template 6/17/09 1:46 PM Page 3 upgrade for the Trent 700 all promise INTERNATIONALAIRLINEFUELCOSTS(IATA) fuel burn improvements of at least 1% Percentageof AveragePriceper BreakevenPrice TotalFuelCost, forenginescurrentlyinservice. Year OperatingCosts BarrelofCrude,$ perBarrel,$ $billions Recent turbulent economic times 2003 14 28.8 23.2 44 have added further urgency to this 2004 17 38.3 34.5 65 process,creatingevenmorepressureto 2005 22 54.5 51.8 91 2006 24 65.1 65.0 107 deliverfuel-savinginitiativesnow,rather 2007 28 73.0 81.1 136 thaninthenextfiveyears. 2008* 32 99.0 93.6 168 For manufacturers, there are four 2009* 25 50.0 46.8 116 major areas where a current aircraft’s *Forecast. economic performance can be im- proved—betteraerodynamics,moreeffi- cientengines,lighterinteriors,andinno- ductionoraretrofit.Thefuelcostofcar- terior structures are also bringing down vative support packages to keep down ryingthisextraweightwilltakesomefly- thecostofownership.Butmanybelieve maintenance,repair,overhaul,andown- ingtimeeachsectortorecover,although the real savings are to be made outside ershipcosts. thisisoffsetbytheneedtocarrylessfuel theaircraftcabin. InEurope,wherethecostsofairline because of the increased range. In sim- According to IATA, each 1% im- operations are higher than anywhere ple terms, if your average sector length provement in fuel efficiency across the else in the world, recent months have is short (less than 1 hr), you won’t get industry can lower fuel costs by $700 seen the launch of several new weight- much benefit from winglets—unless you million a year. Its “save a minute” cam- saving/efficiency-improving initiativesin need any of the other benefits, such as paignisaimedatsavingoneminuteper currentaircraftoperations. reduced noise, or you regularly operate flight through better airspace design, fromobstacle-limitedrunways.” procedures,andmanagement,toreduce Anotherlookatwinglets totalindustryoperatingcostsbyover$1 Around85%ofallnewBoeing737sare Losingweight billionperyear. fitted with winglets, which can deliver a Decreasing weight of aircraft in service A key to this is opening new, more 5-7%improvementinfuelburn,accord- has been another feature of recent re- direct flight routes and realigning others ing to winglet manufacturers Aviation search. Airbus has created a new galley to reduce fuel requirements. In April a Partners (API). Over 3,000 aircraft cur- concept: SPICE, or Space Innovative newinitiativewaslaunchedbyEuropean rentlyinservicehavesavedanestimated CateringEquipment.“Insteadofputting airport,airline,andairnavigationservice 1.6billiongaloffuel,accordingtoAPI, ATLAS trays in heavy trolleys, we put providertradeassociations(ACIEurope, butnoneoftheseareAirbusaircraft.In them in lightweight boxes,” said Bob CANSO, Eurocontrol, and IATA) to im- May,Airbusannounceditwasreconsid- Lange, Head of Aircraft Interiors Mar- plementcontinuousdescentapproaches eringitswingletpolicyandhadrecently keting. “Foldable carts transport the (CDAs)atupto100airportsacrossEu- completed a flight test campaign to boxesduringservice,bringinghugeben- ropebytheendof2013,savingairlines identify both the performance and eco- efits in weight and space savings on 150,000 tonnes of fuel and €100 mil- nomic benefits that these devices could board aircraft, assessed to be over one lion a year. In a CDA, an aircraft flies a offer. According to Stuart Mann, direc- tonne on an A380 and potentially 10 smooth approach into an airport rather tor of product marketing for the Airbus moreeconomyseats.” than the traditional stepped approach, A320 family, “The analysis of the Meanwhile seat manufacturers are reducing fuel burn by 50-150 kg for a winglet testing results is under way at also developing new lightweight con- short-tomedium-haulaircraft. themoment,butthatiscertainlyoneof cepts.AttheHamburgAircraftInteriors As part of this initiative, Italy’s air the elements that we are looking at for Exhibition in March, seat manufacturer navigation service provider ENAV has thefuturetoensurethattheA320fam- Recaro showed a prototype Stingray launched a flight efficiency plan. During ilystayscompetitive.” economy class concept seat which, at 6 2008-2009 the plan will save 67,300 The cost-benefit analysis revolves kg,is4kglighterthantheaverageecon- tonsoffuelforairlinesflyingintoandout around the tradeoff between increased omy seat. Weight savings have also re- of Italy and will shorten routes by aerodynamic efficiency and greater sulted from integrating intelligent new 2,588,000km. weightandcost.AccordingtoAPI: designsandcombininglightweightmate- “Winglets cost about $725,000 and rials in new ways: In the concept seat a Stepchanges take about one week to install, which newaluminumalloywasusedalongwith Buttoreachthefuelefficiencytargetsset costsanextra$25,000-$80,000.Once titaniumandadditionalCFRPmaterials. byresearchers,manufacturers,andinter- fitted,theyadd170-235kg(375-518lb) governmentbodiessuchastheEuropean to the weight of the aircraft, depending Otherapproaches Commission, new step-changing tech- uponwhethertheywereinstalledatpro- These new lightweight materials and in- nologies will be needed. In the medium AEROSPACEAMERICA/JULY-AUGUST2009 5 BEATlayout709.qxd:AA Template 6/17/09 1:46 PM Page 4 term,aircraftoperatorscanlookforward advanced swept-wing aircraft designs. costs by 12%. If you listened to the toanewgenerationofmorefuel-efficient TheVELAproject,partoftheEuropean promises, anything seemed possible,” engines pioneered by the Pratt & Whit- Commission’ssixthframeworkprogram according to Andrew Charlton of ney PW1000G geared turbofan engine. (2000-2006), has already researched Geneva-basedATMconsultantsAviation This engine has already achieved near blendedwingconceptsthatwoulddeliver Advocacy. “Sadly, the figures do not double-digit improvements in fuel burn fuelconsumptionimprovementsofupto support it. Particularly when you con- overcurrentmodelsandwillmakeitsap- 30% over current aircraft designs. Led sider that air traffic is expected to dou- pearanceonthenewMitsubishiRegional by Airbus, with a team of 17 partners, ble, does anyone actually believe that JetandBombardierC-Seriesairliner. the program investigated the benefits, there is a 24% improvement just sitting Meanwhile, CFM International’s ad- potential, and problems of a flying wing outthere?Thereislikelytobea4%im- vanced LEAP-X demonstrator engine is transport aircraft; two configurations provement in ATC to 2020, assuming due to start tests in 2012 with possible were built for wind tunnel testing by the thateverythingelseworks.” certificationin2016.Itreducesfuelburn Institute of Aerodynamics and Flow But with engine manufacturers ad- byupto16%overcurrentCFM56Tech Technology,DLR,Germany. vancedintheirplanstoturnnext-gener- Insertion models. Even greater savings ationconceptpowerplantsintoworking willbepossiblewithnewopen-rotoren- Thenetresult models—andairframemanufacturersde- gines currently being researched; all Taken together, these incremental and veloping ever lighter interiors and sub- these engines should be mature by the step-change improvements in fuel effi- systems—perhaps the highly ambitious time the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 ciencysuggestthatthelong-termtargets targets of 50% fuel efficiency improve- replacementaircraftappear. areindeedpossible,thoughsomeaspects ment in the next 10-15 years may not Also, the successful completion of willbemorechallengingthanothers. besofancifulafterall. the Single European Sky program by “Yes,theSingleEuropeanSkywould PhilipButterworth-Hayes 2025—allowingformoredirectroutings reduce unnecessary flying by 12%, so it Brighton,U.K. inEurope’sairspaceandreduceddelays would reduce emissions by 12%, and [email protected] on the ground—could in theory deliver reduced fuel burn by a further 6-12%. Operationalimprovementscanbringan additional2-6%fuelsaving. According to a March 2007 state- mentbyPhilippedeSaint-Aulaire,Airbus vice president for environmental affairs, Airbus is serious about targeting a 50% reductioninaircraftfuelconsumptionby UAVworldwideroundup—2009(April, lowed by a third Missouri mission. Both 2020: Airframe improvements would page30)wasenjoyablebutnotthe“rest thenmovedintothenorthernKTO. provideabout25%ofthereduction,en- of the story.” I’m not sure if the whole The Wisconsin took the northern gine improvements 10-15%, and im- truth matters but the factual content re- gunlineseveralhourspriortothecease- provedairtrafficmanagement10%.The gardingdeploymentofPioneerinDesert fire. This was her limited opportunity 25% improvement is based on research Stormisinpartmisleading.IwasaNavy onlyaftertheMissouriexpendingallfive byAirbusintodragreduction. lieutenant Pioneer mission commander Pioneer assets during the ground war According to a paper given by Géza andtheassistantOICofVC-6Det2on (one was lost to hostile fire, the rest fa- SchraufofAirbusattheFifthCommunity board the USS Missouri. The first de- tigue);havinglostthelastoneinthewee Aeronautics Days conference held in ploymentofPioneeragainsthostileswas hours on Monday (the last day). Capt. Vienna in June 2006, Airbus identified from the Missouri just off Al Khafji in Kaise of the Missouri then decided to three major areas of drag reduction po- early February. For three days we pulloutandgivetheWisconsintheclos- tential: a 15% improvement in the area pounded the southern KTO bunker, ar- ing rounds because he concluded that ofviscousdrag(throughtheintroduction tillerysites,andtargetsofopportunityto withouthisUAVshewasblind. of laminar flow technology, turbulence, help discourage any more Iraqi excur- Thiswastherealturningpoint,prior and separation control technologies), a sionsintoSaudiArabia. to the actual first engagement in early 7% improvement in lift-induced drag The Missouri was given the combat February and the first use of Pioneer in (through shape optimization, adaptive action citation for actual engagement combat. All of the Pioneer units (two wing devices, wing-tip devices, and load and exchange of fire with enemy. The Navy, three Marine, and one Army) controltechnologies),anda3%improve- Wisconsin took the second mission, fol- were instrumental in leading the aware- ment in other drag areas such as wave drag and interference drag (through the developmentofnewshockcontroltech- Alllettersaddressedtotheeditorareconsideredtobesubmittedforpossiblepublication,unless nologiesandnovelconfigurations). itisexpresslystatedotherwise.Alllettersaresubjecttoeditingforlengthandtoauthorresponse. Lettersshouldbesentto:Correspondence,AerospaceAmerica,1801AlexanderBellDrive, Afurtherstep-changeinaerodynam- Suite500,Reston,VA20191-4344,orbye-mailto:[email protected]. ics would be the advent of blended and 6 AEROSPACEAMERICA/JULY-AUGUST2009 BEATlayout709.qxd:AA Template 6/17/09 1:46 PM Page 5 nessofUAVs,buttheMissouri-UAVtac- reduceourCO output,isbasedentirely I skimmed through the IPCC report 2 tical mission successes were overshad- on computer models. Temperature data myself and found the word uncertainty owed by the historically sensational but doesnotsupportit.Globalaveragetem- many times in the body of the report tacticallyminoreventonFailakaIsland. peraturesarelowernowthanthelast10 withregardtotheirconclusions,butthe JosephSchmidt years. The data shows we are at about ‘Summary for Decision Makers’ had a AgustaWestlandBell thesameglobalaveragetemperaturesas much different tone, one of certainty of the early ’90s and even at times in the the coming worldwide catastrophe. (cid:1)(cid:1)(cid:1) ’80s.Andthetemperaturedatadoesnot Maybe it would be a lot cheaper for the I just read the commentary Addressing trackcloselywithatmosphericCO . aerospace industry to conduct a public 2 Climate Change with help from The computer models haven’t ac- educationcampaign. PeterCento abroad (April, page 3) by Jerry Grey. I counted for actual fluctuations in the [email protected] apologizeifIappearcriticalandIamnot data(whichmeanstheyarenotaccurate specifically criticizing Grey’s commen- enough to start crafting policy to limit Replybyauthor:AsIpointedoutinmy tary,butIgrowwearyofallthesearticles CO ).ChartsshowingCO andtemper- responsetotheletterfromJosephShee- 2 2 where AA is promoting the very ques- ature tracking together show tempera- leyintheMayissue,inmycommentaryI tionable theory of climate change. Cli- ture leading CO if examined closely. donot“…implythatitismankind’sgen- 2 mate change appears to be more of a HowthencanCO causewarming?Cli- erationofgreenhousegases(oraerosols) 2 business and power grab, not any real mate researchers themselves do not that is causing the observed global environmental problem. There are no show a great deal of confidence in their warmingtrend,althoughthatconclusion consequencesofclimatechangethatare models (also shown in the survey men- hasbeendrawn,notwithoutopposition, goingtoaffecttheentireworld.Climate tionedbelow). bymostclimatescientists.Mr.Sheeleyis research is interesting and informative, Here are highlights of some climate correctinhiscontentionthatthelinkbe- but way too much money has been change news you won’t see on the tweenman-madeCO andglobalwarm- 2 spentonthis. eveningnews:TheJapanScienceAdvi- ing is based on climate models that still Those who edit AerospaceAmerica sory board to their government has require significant improvement, but ought to be aware that most aerospace statedthattheideathattheEarth’stem- nowhere do I imply that those models scientists and engineers with technical peraturesaregoingtomonotonicallyin- ‘prove’suchaconnection.” training and experience are very, very creaseisanimprovablehypothesis;they Mr. Cento expresses a view that is skepticaloftheideaofman-madeglobal compared the UN’s IPCC report to an- strongly held by some climate scientists, warmingbeingagenuineconcern.That cientastrology.ABritishcourtfound11 butasIimpliedintheaboveresponseto hasbeenmyexperiencewithahighper- inaccurate assertions in Al Gore’s docu- Mr. Sheeley, I believe they represent a centage of colleagues I’ve worked with. mentaryAnInconvenientTruth.Twosuc- small minority of the entire qualified cli- Just because politicians and journalists cessful conferences on climate change mate-sciencecommunity. keep repeating this stuff over and over havebeenheldinthelasttwoyearsded- does not make it true. In fact, ABC- icated to global warming skepticism. In (cid:1)(cid:1)(cid:1) Newspollsleadinguptolastyear’selec- 2008 Russian climate scientists pre- IntheeditorialLostinspace(May,page tionshowedthatlessthan1%ofthere- dicted a coming global cooling because 3) you note that some see “jobs and spondentsthoughtglobalwarmingwasa ofachangeinsolaractivity.Harvardas- funds flowing to Russia—at a time when major issue. No wonder no one I work trophysicistWillieSoonrecentlyhasalso botharecriticallyneededathome.” withthinksmuchofit. stated that changes in the Sun’s activity IbelievethatIreadinarecentarticle Frankly, I believe the theory of an- isamajordrivingforceoftheEarth’scli- that the Russians will charge the U.S. thropogenic global warming is a farce mate.Inaddition,asurveyofclimatesci- $51 million per trip to the ISS. If this is and not anything close to being worthy entists by Bray, Dennis and Hans von for an entire crew change, it is a bar- of the aerospace industry, or Western Storch (as condensed by Joseph Bast) gain—less than 10% of the cost of a countriesforthatmatter,sacrificingwhat found that 55% agree climate change shuttlemission.Evenperpassenger,itis mayamounttotrillionsofdollarsofcost has mostly anthropogenic causes, 35% not a bad price, but, perhaps we can and economic growth in the coming agreeclimatemodelscanaccuratelypre- bargainthemdowntothespacetourism decadesforsomethingthatverylikelyis dictfutureclimateconditions,32%agree priceofaround$30million. anonissue,justliketheozoneholeinthe the current state of scientific knowledge I, as you, decry the loss of U.S. ca- ’90s and the global cooling scare in the can provide reasonable climatic predic- pabilities and prestige in this area, but ’70s.Infactaniceagewaspredictedin tions on time scales of 10 years, 27% from the taxpayer perspective using the the 1920s, and a global warming scare agree reasonable predictions can be Soyuzisnotabadidea,andcostshould in the 1930s, always fueled by some madeontimescalesof100years,69% notbe themainpointofthediscussion. people’seagernesstoproliferatepanic. agree climate change might have some Perhaps the money saved on shuttle What many people don’t realize is positive effects for some societies, and flights could be used to support NASA's that the current theory of global warm- 45% agree that climate scientists have sorelyunderfundedsciencemissions. ing, in which planet warming will accel- enough evidence to recommend policy GeneMcCall eratemonotonicallyunlesswedrastically makersenactclimatechangepolicies. [email protected] AEROSPACEAMERICA/JULY-AUGUST2009 7 ASIAlayout709.qxd:1 6/17/09 1:51 PM Page 2 Joiningthespacerace,carefully INRECENTYEARSTHERACEBETWEENCHINA But while its space program is im- home-grown launch vehicle and locally andIndiaformannedspaceflightandfor portant in building South Korea’s repu- designed and built 1.5-tonne multipur- the Moon has drawn significant atten- tation as a center of high technology, pose satellite being launched in 2017. tion, as did North Korea’s much-publi- thereisarefreshingairofrealismabout Ultimately the intention is to send up a cized rocket test in April. All this has the first launch’s prospects. Last year, lunarorbiterin2020andalunarlander overshadowedprogressbySouthKorea, LeeMun-ki,directorgeneraloftheMin- in2025. which is now on the verge of becoming istryofEducation,ScienceandTechnol- aspacefaringnationinitsownright. ogy's science support bureau, com- Learningtherocketcraft Orsoithopes.Ifallgoeswell,South mented,“Consideringthecasesofother Quietlyandcautiously,SouthKoreahas Korea’s launching of a 100-kg (220-lb) countries and our level of experience, navigated its way through the interna- satellite into LEO in July, aboard a you have to say the first launch is more tional maze of regulations and restric- largely Russian first-stage rocket topped than likely to fail.” Officials said the tions that govern technology transfer in by a South Korean-designed second chancesoffailurestoodataround70%. rocketry,inmuchthesamewayasithas stage, will make the country the ninth Norismuchexpectedfromthesatel- done with satellites. The country has nation to launch a home-built satellite lite, which is intended to do little more gained experience in basic rocketry fromitsownterritory.Itwouldalsomark than report its position for its planned through the military, maintaining and a huge step up toward South Korea’s two-year life. The entire effort is a modifying U.S.-supplied Honest John goalofbecominganimportantpresence “proofofconcept”exercisethatthegov- andNiketacticalmissiles.Bythe1990s inspace. ernment in Seoul hopes will lead to a South Korea was able to manufacture solid-fuelrocketmotorsweighingupto1 tonne(2,200lb). InJanuary2008SouthKoreanspaceflightparticipantsKoSan(right)andYiSo-yeon(center)tookpartin In 1990, the Korea Aerospace Re- aspacestationhardwaretrainingsessionintheSpaceVehicleMockupFacilityatNASAJohnson. searchInstitute(KARI)wasestablishedto build sounding rockets using a modified versionofthesolid-fuelmotor.One-and two-stageversionsoftherockets,KSR1 and KSR 2, were built in the 1990s. Nextcamedevelopmentofaliquidoxy- gen/kerosene rocket motor with 12.5 tonnesofthrust(similartothefirststage oftheU.S.Vanguardinthelate1950s). The intention was to launch a satellite, andthefirststagewasloftedjustonceas theKSR3in2002. By2001SouthKoreahadbecomea signatorytotheMissileTechnologyCon- trol Regime, which enabled it to seek technology for peaceful space purposes fromothernations.AnxietyinWashing- tonaboutSeoul’spossiblemilitaryuseof rocketsagainstneighboringNorthKorea had the effect of driving South Korea’s scientists into the arms of Russia. Prob- lems developing the LOX/kerosene engine for the Korea space launch vehicle (KSLV)1ledKARItoseekhelpfromthe U.S. But this plea was rejected, and in- steadSouthKoreasignedatechnicalas- sistanceagreementwithRussiain2004. Furtherdiplomaticanxietycauseddelays 8 AEROSPACEAMERICA/JULY-AUGUST2009 ASIAlayout709.qxd:1 6/17/09 1:51 PM Page 3 in implementing the program, and a ments between Earth and the satellite. ing. April’s launch of a rocket over Ja- Technology Safeguards Agreement was But that is not really the point. Accord- pan was said by North Korea’s govern- eventually signed by Moscow and Seoul ing to Cho Gwang-rae, a KARI senior ment in Pyongyang to have been a suc- inlate2006. researcher, speaking to reporters last cessful lofting of a communications year: “KSLV 1’s payload was designed satelliteintoorbit.Theproblemwasthat Acloserlook to support a 100-kg satellite, and you nooneelsecouldheartheNorthKorean The KSLV 1 first stage is based on the can’t be expecting much from such a songs Pyongyang said the alleged satel- Angara booster—built at Russia’s Khru- simple device....The real test will be lite was broadcasting. U.S. officials said nichev State Research and Production 2017, when we will be attempting to therockethadnotreachedorbitbuthad SpaceCenternearMoscow—whichitself send a real-purpose satellite with a fully splashed into the Pacific Ocean. So the hasyettofly.FortheKoreanversion,a domesticallydevelopedrocket.Ifwesuc- eventwaseitheranunsuccessfulsatellite different(smaller)enginewillbeused. ceedinthat,wecanthensaywehavea launch or a successful missile test—suc- A ground test vehicle was sent from spaceindustry.” cessfulinthatitwentabout50%farther thanthelastsuchlaunchingin1998. Enter the Russians again: In late April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited both Koreas and offered NorthKoreahelpinlaunchingsatellites. He said, “Russia is cooperating with many countries in the peaceful explo- ration of space, including launching satellites by our boosters. We have such agreements with South Korea, and we arereadytodevelopsimilarprojectswith NorthKoreaandhopeourproposalwill beexamined.” Pyongyang offered no response, but it seemed likely that the offer was a move to try to get North Korea back to thetabletodiscussnuclearissues—itsna- tional pride would almost certainly pre- emptanyuseofRussianrockets,partic- KSLV1wasscheduledtolaunchinJuly,deliveringa100-kgsatellitetoLEO. ularly since South Korea is already benefitingfromRussianhelp. Russiatothenewlybuiltlaunchcomplex Internationalpicture Assuming the KSLV 1 launch goes at Naro, in Korea’s southern Cholla South Korea has a long history of put- well,andthatitssucceedingKSLVdeliv- Province,lastAugustforintegrationand ting up scientific research and telecom- ers the planned 1.5-tonne satellite in qualification testing. Khrunichev re- munications satellites made variously by 2017,thenextbighurdleforSouthKo- portedinAprilthatassemblyoftheflight U.S. and European manufacturers, or rea will be manned spaceflight. So far, vehicleforKSLV1’sfirststagehadbeen built by Korean organizations and onlyoneKoreannationalhasjourneyed completedandthevehiclewasundergo- launchedbyEuropean,U.S.,orRussian intospace—bioengineerYiSo-yeon.She ingworkinateststand. rockets. Its four commercial satellites went on an 11-day mission to the inter- ThesecondstagefortheKSLV1isa have been known as Koreasats, starting national space station in April 2008, solid-fuel rocket developed and made in with Koreasat 1 in 1995 and so far cul- travelingonaRussianSoyuz. SouthKoreatoKARI’sdesign,withKo- minatingwithKoreasat5in2006.(The rean-made navigation and telemetry designation Koreasat 4 was avoided be- Rippleeffects equipmentonboard.Totallengthofthe causethenumberfourisregardedasun- This first was unusual for male-domi- KSLV1is33m,withthefirststageoc- lucky,representingdeathinsomeAsian nated Korean society, but Yi had been cupying 25.8 m of that. Total weight is cultures.) The Koreasat family also goes pushed from being the standby into the 140tonnes. under the Korean name Mungunghwa, primespotaftertheintendedprimecan- Allthisjusttoputintospacea220-lb which is the name of Korea’s national didate was involved in a controversy at satellite? Actually, Science and Technol- flower,theroseofSharon. theRussiantrainingschooloversecurity ogy Satellite 2, as the spacecraft is South Korea’s efforts to play by in- regulations. called, has dual-channel radiometers to ternational rules, complicated politically Yibecamethe49thwomaninspace measure the Earth’s brightness, and a byitsborderwithNorthKorea,contrast but just the second female Asian astro- laserreflectorarrayforprecisemeasure- markedlywithNorthKorea’srockettest- naut;thefirstwasJapanesesurgeonChi- AEROSPACEAMERICA/JULY-AUGUST2009 9 ASIAlayout709.qxd:1 6/17/09 1:51 PM Page 4 akiMukai,whomadetwoshuttletrips,in space, and model spacecraft (her Soyuz 1994 and 1998. The third is likely also trip was charged to the government at to be Japanese; aerospace engineer 26billionwon). NaokoYamazakiisduetoflyinthespace But the real payoff in all three cases shuttleAtlantisnextyearonanISSsup- is more likely in the “halo” effect that plymission. theirexperienceshaveonotherpeople— The relevance of these women be- thegeneralpublic,andyouthinparticu- coming astronauts has little to do with lar. It is one thing for a former military women’s liberation in its real sense; all testpilottotrytocommunicatewhathis three had excellent academic qualifica- or her time in space was really like; it is tionsandhadgonethroughthesamese- quiteanotherforacivilian,andanextro- lection procedures as their male col- vertedfemaleatthat,totalkineveryday leagues. It has, however, much to do termstoalayaudience. with local public perceptions of women Consider this comment from Yi last andtheirplaceinsociety. year about her intentions now that she So for two heavily male dominated hasachievedherdreamofbecomingan societies,whatdotheirgovernmentsget astronaut: “Before becoming an astro- for their investments in these women? nautIwasnotasawareofthestridesthat Financial reward? Well, as an example, we need to bring in our educational sys- Koreasatshavebeenlaunchedbyavarietyof the Korea Aerospace University pre- tems, and how important it really is to companies,includingSeaLaunch. dicted that Yi’s trip would boost the na- provide the young people—students in tional economy by $381.2 million (478 schoolsandcolleges—withtherighttools activeininspiringtheyounggeneration.” billion won) from sales generated in and,aboveall,inspiration.Iamconsider- Yi has further advice for would-be items such as telescopes, books about ing furthering research and being very astronauts: “Enjoy what you do. Com- pete in the selection process and enjoy it.Ithelpedmeimmenselytomakeitall the way. There is a proverb in Chinese that goes, ‘[The] person who does [not do] his/her best cannot like it and the person who does not like it cannot do his/herbest.’” Nextsteps The KSLV 1 project is expected to cost about$377million,including$198mil- liontobepaidtoRussia,whoseservices have been contracted for at least two missions. The second mission is expected to take place about nine months afterthefirst,assumingitissuccessful.If not, then Korean officials anticipate needing about a year to analyze what wentwrongandhowtofixit. Despite the apparently cautious or evendownbeatofficialcomments,KARI scientists and engineers are under huge pressure to deliver, with national pride and the public’s hopes at stake. Yi’s flight last year has whetted the national appetiteforproofthatSouthKoreatruly doeshavetheabilitytostandupandbe counted among the world’s leaders of high-technologyprojects.KSLV1willbe carryingalotmorethanjustalittlesatel- litewhenitleavesthelaunchpad. MichaelWestlake HongKong [email protected] 10 AEROSPACEAMERICA/JULY-AUGUST2009