Advancing Aeronautics

161 Pages·2011·2.95 MB·English

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Advancing Aeronautics
A Decision Framework for Selecting
Research Agendas
Philip S. Antón, Liisa Ecola, James G. Kallimani, Thomas Light,
Chad J. R. Ohlandt, Jan Osburg, Raj Raman, Clifford A. Grammich
Sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
INFRASTRUCTURE, SAFETY, AND ENVIRONMENT and
NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION
The research in this monograph was funded by NASA Headquarters and
was conducted jointly under the auspices of the Transportation, Space,
and Technology Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and
Environment and the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the
RAND National Security Research Division.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Advancing aeronautics : a decision framework for selecting research agendas / Philip S.
Anton ... [et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-5019-9 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Aeronautics—Research--Government policy—United States. I. Anton, Philip S.
TL521.A58 2010
629.130072—dc22
2010027017
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Preface
A signifcant amount of the dramatic progress made in the United States aviation
industry during its frst century was the result of publicly funded research. Tis ranged
from foundational research on airfoils, sponsored by the National Advisory Commit-
tee for Aeronautics, to support for development of the most complicated air trafc con-
trol system in the world. As the industry enters its second century, it stands at a cross-
roads. Public funding for aeronautics research has been static or decreasing in recent
years, raising questions of what should be funded and why.
Te United States needs a consistent vision of where aeronautics could take the
nation and a framework to help policymakers prioritize potential projects given fscal
realities. Recent proposals, including the useful National Research Council’s Decadal
Survey of the aviation industry, have attempted to provide such a vision, but they often
provide a technical perspective based on specifc, narrow technical opportunities from
current research and new ideas, not a strategic vision of the greatest challenges, govern-
mental role, social needs, potential payofs, economic drivers, etc. Most also lacked a
comprehensive and objective prioritization framework for helping policymakers make
programmatic decisions and tradeofs.
Recognizing the need for such a framework, the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration’s (NASA) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate asked the RAND
Corporation to assess what is required to develop a strategic view of aeronautics oppor-
tunities and to outline a framework by which to evaluate the nation’s future require-
ments for aeronautics research. Tis monograph is the fnal report on that research,
which was conducted primarily between April 2007 and June 2009. It should be of
interest to NASA, the Ofce of Science and Technology Policy, the Department of
Defense, the Federal Aviation Administration, the Ofce of Management and Budget,
congressional decisionmakers, and the aerospace industry.
Te research reported on in this monograph was funded by NASA Headquarters.
Te study was conducted jointly under the auspices of the RAND Transportation,
Space, and Technology (RAND TST) Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety,
and Environment (ISE); and the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the
RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).
iii
iv Advancing Aeronautics: A Decision Framework for Selecting Research Agendas
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Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxiii
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxv
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Study Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Overview of a Decision Process for Aeronautics Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Structure of the Monograph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
CHAPTER TwO
why and when Should the U.S. Government Invest in Aeronautics Research? . . . . . . . . . . 7
Role of the Public Sector in Aeronautics Research—U.S. Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Role of the Public Sector in Aeronautics Research—Perspectives from Economics . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Prioritizing Public Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Using NPV and BCR as Tools to Inform Public and Private Research Investments . . . . . . . 12
Important Caveats for the Use of NPV, BCR, and Related Measures for Early
Research Decisionmaking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Practical Aspects of Estimating NPV, BCR, and Related Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Role of the Public Sector in Aeronautics Research—Technical and Systems Maturity
Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Preliminary Views on the State of Aeronautics Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
External Trends and How Tey May Afect Aeronautics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
NASA’s Involvement in Aeronautics Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
CHAPTER THREE
Diferent Approaches for Setting Research Directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Social and Economic Drivers Approach (Benefts-Driven) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
v
vi Advancing Aeronautics: A Decision Framework for Selecting Research Agendas
Illustrative Examples of Using Data to Quantify Economic and Social Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Balancing Competing Demands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Limitations of a Purely Benefts-Driven Social and Economic Drivers Approach . . . . . . . . . 38
Grand Challenges Approach (Vision-Driven) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Identifying and Selecting Grand Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Diferent Ways to Generate Candidate Grand Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Grand Challenges Concept Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Limitations of the Grand Challenges Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
National R&D Policy Guidance Approach (Directive-Driven) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Limitations of the Directive-Driven Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Science- and Technology-Driven Approach (Idea- and Opportunity-Driven) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Research Ideas from the National Academies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Limitations of the Science- and Technology-Driven Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Combining the Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
CHAPTER FOUR
A Multidimensional Decision Framework for Prioritizing Aeronautics Research . . . . . . 49
Developing Grand Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Developing Research Temes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Research Temes Should Be Neither Too Broad Nor Too Technical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Some Possible Aeronautics Research Temes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Developing Technical Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Integrating the Framework Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Evaluating Research Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Possible Strategic Metrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Evaluating Research Temes and Grand Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Identifying and Mapping Basic Technical Approaches for Addressing Research Temes
and Grand Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Evaluating Technical Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
CHAPTER FIvE
Conclusions and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
A Prioritization Process Based on Compelling Drivers and Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Use Multiple Approaches to Collect Perspectives Tat Balance the Considerations . . . . . . . 68
A Two-Staged Process Enables Strategic Examination by Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Objective Metrics Refect Considerations Important to Decisionmakers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Visualization Techniques Empower Overviews of the Key Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
An Illustrative Example of Needs and Research Temes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Social and Economic Data Inform the Relative Importance of Aeronautics Research
Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Contents vii
Grand Challenges Can Provide Vision Yet Refect Practical Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Tese Research Temes Can Provide Strategic Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Possible Research Temes to Consider . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Some NASA-Specifc Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
APPENDIxES
A. Analysis of Aeronautics Social and Economic Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
B. Research Temes Decompositions and Conceptual Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121