Advances In Parasitology - Vol 62 (2006) WW

440 Pages·2006·7.97 MB·English

Series Editors

J. R. Baker, Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, London, UK

R. Muller, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

D. Rollinson, The Natural History Museum, London, UK

Editorial Board

M. Coluzzi, Director, Istituto de Parassitologia, Universita` Degli Studi di
Roma ‘La Sapienza’, P. le A. Moro 5, 00185 Roma, Italy

C. Combes, Laboratoire de Biologie Animale, Universite´ de Perpignan,
Centre de Biologie et d’Ecologie Tropicale et Me´ diterrane´ enne, Avenue de
Villeneuve, 66860 Perpignan Cedex, France

D.D. Despommier, Division of Tropical Medicine and Environmental
Sciences, Department of Microbiology, Columbia University, 630 West
168th Street, New York, NY 10032, USA

J.J. Shaw, Instituto de Cieˆ ncias Biome´ dicas, Universidade de Sa˜ o Paulo,
av. Prof. Lineu Prestes 1374, 05508-900, Cidade Universita´ ria, Sa˜ o Paulo,
SP, Brazil

K. Tanabe, Laboratory of Biology, Osaka Institute of Technology, 5-16-1
Ohmiya Asahi-Ku, Osaka 535, Japan

CONTRIBUTORS TO VOLUME 62

P. M. ATKINSON, School of Geography, University of Southampton,
Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK

D. L. BALK, CIESIN, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964,
USA

S. BROOKER, Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London
School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London
WC1E 7HT, UK

D. A. P. BUNDY, Human Development Division, The World Bank,
1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433, USA

A. C. A. CLEMENTS, Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases,
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street,
London WC1E 7HT, UK

U. DEICHMANN, Development Research Group, The World Bank,
1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA

S. J. GOETZ, The Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole, MA
02543-0296, USA

A. J. GRAHAM, TALA Research Group, Tinbergen Building, Depart-
ment of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford
OX1 3PS, UK

C. A. GUERRA, TALA Research Group, Tinbergen Building, Depart-
ment of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford
OX1 3PS, UK

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S. I. HAY, TALA Research Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of
Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1
3PS, UK

A. NELSON, JRC (Joint Research Centre of the European Commis-
sion), Global Environment Monitoring Unit, TP 440, Via Enrico
Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (VA), Italy

F. POZZI, Universita` Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, sede di Brescia, via dei
Musei 41, 25121, Brescia, Italy

S. E. RANDOLPH, Oxford Tick Research Group, Tinbergen Building,
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS,
UK

D. J. ROGERS, TALA Research Group, Tinbergen Building, Depart-
ment of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford
OX1 3PS, UK

R. W. SNOW, Malaria Public Health & Epidemiology Group, Centre for
Geographic Medicine, KEMRI/Wellcome Trust Research Labora-
tories, PO Box 43640, 00100 Nairobi, Kenya

A. J. TATEM, TALA Research Group, Tinbergen Building, Department
of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1
3PS, UK

A. J. WILSON, TALA Research Group, Tinbergen Building, Department
of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1
3PS, UK

G. YETMAN, CIESIN, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964,
USA

CONTRIBUTORS TO VOLUME 62
vi

Series Editors’ Preface

Nearly six years ago, a special volume of Advances in Parasitology
(vol. 47) dealt with the uses of remote sensing and geographical in-
formation systems in the study of disease epidemiology. In a sense,
this volume is a follow-on to that publication, dealing as it does with
some practical applications of those techniques to the study of par-
asitic and infectious diseases.
We are once again fortunate in having Simon Hay, David Rogers
and—a newcomer this time—Alastair Graham, of the University of
Oxford in the United Kingdom, as guest editors. They have assem-
bled a formidable array of talented research workers from the UK
and the USA as contributors to what we are sure will be a valuable
source of both technical and epidemiological data in this rapidly
growing field.
We are sincerely grateful to the guest editors, authors and all those
who have contributed to the production of this volume.

John Baker
Ralph Muller
David Rollinson

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Guest Editors’ Preface

It has been five years since an earlier special issue of Advances in
Parasitology, Volume 47, outlined the advances that remote sensing
(RS) and geographical information systems (GIS) could bring to epi-
demiology. During this interval a vast amount of work has been
undertaken in this area and these RS data and GIS tools have moved
from the novel to part of the mainstream of spatial epidemiology.
Data availability has continued to limit the engagement of many
potential users, however. This has been most obvious in continental
and global scale public-health applications, and predictably these
limitations have been particularly acute in regions with low band-
width internet connections, often where the public health need is
greatest. The primary reason for compiling this new volume was to
enable a wider range of epidemiologists to have access to the global
environmental data (satellite and demographic), which we have been
collectively working with for over a decade. The second reason for
devising this special issue was to demonstrate that RS and GIS do not
simply create pretty maps, but biologically informative information
and ultimately pragmatic control tools. That being said, we also hope
you like the front cover!
This special issue of Advances in Parasitology, Volume 62, ‘‘Global
mapping of infectious diseases: methods, examples and emerging ap-
plications’’ comprises 10 reviews and a DVD of global environmental
and population data. There are four introductory reviews: one on the
various methods used to predict disease distributions (Rogers, this
volume, pp. 1–35); another on the global environmental datasets that
can be used for disease mapping (Hey et al., this volume, pp. 37–77);
a further one exploring the concepts of spatial resolution, accuracy
and uncertainty measures in disease mapping based on remote sens-

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ing (Atkinson and Graham, this volume, pp. 79–118) and a final one
on predicting the global distribution of human population (Balk
et al., this volume, pp. 119–156). Three reviews follow dealing with
defining the global distribution limits of Plasmodium falciparum and
P. vivax malaria (Guerra et al., this volume, pp. 157–179), first at-
tempts to map the environmental limits of dengue and yellow fever at
the global scale (Rogers et al., this volume, pp. 181–220) and con-
tinued efforts to map the geo-helminths for the targeting of control
activities (Brooker et al., this volume, pp. 221–262). Finally, three
application reviews discuss current research topics that have emerged
from our ability to consider epidemiological phenomena at the global
scale. Tick-borne diseases are used as an example of how to coin-
cidentally map geographic and phylogenetic space (Randolph and
Rogers, this volume, pp. 263–291). The penultimate review investi-
gates the spread of disease vectors and the pathogens they transmit
via global transport networks (Tatem et al., this volume, pp.
293–343). The final review discusses methods and evidence required
to evaluate the impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease
(Rogers and Randolph, this volume, pp. 345–381).
The public health environment, as well as our research, has evolved
significantly in the last five years. The millennium development goals
(http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/) have been signed and largely
drive the global development agenda. More recently these have been
emphasized and augmented by the commission for Africa (http://
www.commissionforafrica.org/), which helped to highlight the in-
creasing importance of public health interventions in achieving in-
ternational
development
goals.
Our
ability
to
document
the
‘‘epidemiological state of the Earth’’ is therefore a crucial underpin-
ning to measuring, planning, costing and ultimately delivering on
these promises. We hope that the information and methods outlined
in these reviews will in some small way contribute.
Furthermore, global environmental change has continued apace
throughout the past five years. These changes for example to climate,
transport networks, disease pathogens and their vectors do not re-
spect administrative boundaries and their influences and impacts are
best addressed at the global scale. With increasing computing power
and ever cheaper data storage capacity, a wider variety of researchers

GUEST EDITORS’ PREFACE
x

can start to evaluate changes using the baseline data provided here.
Our final reviews aim to convey some of the research opportunity
that, we believe, these data facilitate.
Finally, we would like to note the passing of Byron Woods and
Louisa Beck. Both participated in the previous special issue and were
valued colleagues, whose contributions will be missed. We would also
like to thank the series editors and development editors at Academic
Press for their continued support and their help in making this col-
lection of reviews, a book.
S.I. Hay
A.J. Graham
D.J. Rogers

GUEST EDITORS’ PREFACE
xi

Contents

CONTRIBUTORS TO VOLUME 62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
v

SERIES EDITORS’ PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
vii
GUEST EDITIORS’ PREFACE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ix

Models for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases

D.J. Rogers

Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
1.
A Brief History of Distribution Modelling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2
2.
Families of Distribution Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4
3.
Predictor Variable Selection in Distribution Models . . . . . . . .
12
4.
What to Do With Sparse Datasets?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14
5.
Incorporating Spatial Information Into Models . . . . . . . . . . .
19
6.
Model Selection and Multi-Model Inference . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21
7.
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
33
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
33

Global Environmental Data for Mapping Infectious
Disease Distribution

S.I. Hay, A.J. Tatem, A.J. Graham, S.J. Goetz and
D.J. Rogers

Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
38
1.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
38
2.
The AVHRR Sensor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
39
3.
Temporal Fourier Analysis (TFA). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49
4.
Future Global Environmental Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
57
5.
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
70
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
70
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
71

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Issues of Scale and Uncertainty in the Global Remote
Sensing of Disease

P.M. Atkinson and A.J. Graham

Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
80
1.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
80
2.
Issues of Scale and Spatial Resolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
86
3.
Issues of Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
96
4.
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
107
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
108
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
108

Determining Global Population Distribution: Methods,
Applications and Data

D.L. Balk, U. Deichmann, G. Yetman, F. Pozzi, S.I. Hay and
A. Nelson

Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
120
1.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
120
2.
Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
124
3.
Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
133
4.
Health Applications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
138
5.
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
144
6.
Data Dissemination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
148
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
151
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
151

Defining the Global Spatial Limits of Malaria
Transmission in 2005

C.A. Guerra, R.W. Snow and S.I. Hay

Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
157
1.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
158
2.
The Distribution of Malaria Risk from Travel Guidelines . . . .
159
3.
The Biological Limits of Transmission. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
161
4.
Distinguishing P. falciparum and P. vivax risk . . . . . . . . . . . .
169
5.
Regional Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
169
6.
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
173

CONTENTS
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