Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization Managing Editors Editorial Board H.-H. Bock, Aachen Ph. Arabie, Newark W. Gaul, Karlsruhe D. Baier, Cottbus M. Vichi, Rome F. Critchley, Milton Keynes R. Decker, Bielefeld E. Diday, Paris M. Greenacre, Barcelona C. Lauro, Naples J. Meulman, Leiden P. Monari, Bologna S. Nishisato, Toronto N. Ohsumi, Tokyo O. Opitz, Augsburg G. Ritter, Passau M. Schader, Mannheim C. Weihs, Dortmund Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH Titles in the Series H.-H. Bockand P.Ihm (Eds.) A.Rizzi,M.Vichi, and H.-H. Bock Classification, Data Analysis, (Eds.) and Knowledge Organization. 1991 Advances in Data Science (out ofprint) and Classification. 1998 M.Schader (Ed.) M.Vichiand O.Opitz (Eds.) Analyzing and Modeling Data Classification and Data Analysis. 1999 and Knowledge. 1992 W.Gauland H. Locarek-Iunge (Eds.) O.Opitz, B.Lausen, and R.Klar (Eds.) Classification in the Information Age. Information and Classification. 1993 1999 (out ofprint) H.-H. Bockand E.Diday (Eds.) H.-H. Bock,W. Lenski, Analysis of Symbolic Data.2000 and M.M.Richter (Eds.) Information Systems and Data H.A.L. Kiers, J.-P. Rasson, Analysis. 1994(out ofprint) P.J.F.Groenen, and M.Schader (Eds.) Data Analysis, Classification, E. Diday,Y. Lechevallier,M. Schader, and Related Methods.2000 P.Bertrand, and B. Burtschy (Eds.) NewApproaches in Classification and W.Gaul,O.Opitz and M.Schader Data Analysis. 1994(out of print) (Eds.) Data Analysis. 2000 W.Gauland D. Pfeifer (Eds.) From Data to Knowledge. 1995 R.Decker and W.Gaul Classification and Information H.-H. Bockand W.Polasek (Eds.) Processing at the Turn ofthe Data Analysis and Information Millenium. 2000 Systems. 1996 S.Borra, R.Rocci,M.Vichi, E. Diday,Y. Lechevallier and M.Schader (Eds.) and O.Opitz (Eds.) Advances in Classification Ordinal and Symbolic Data Analysis. and Data Analysis. 2001 1996 W.Gauland G. Ritter (Eds.) R.Klar and O.Opitz (Eds.) Classification, Automation, Classification and Knowledge and NewMedia. 2002 Organization. 1997 K.Iajuga, A.Sokolowski, C. Hayashi, N.Ohsumi, K.Yajima, and H.-H. Bock (Eds.) Y. Tanaka, H.-H. Bock,and Y. Baba Classification, Clustering and Data (Eds.) Analysis.2002 Data Science, Classification, o. and Related Methods. 1998 M.Schwaiger, Opitz (Eds.) Exploratory Data Analysis I. Balderjahn, R.Mathar, in Empirical Research. 2003 and M.Schader (Eds.) Classification, Data Analysis, M.Schader, W. Gaul,and M.Vichi and Data Highways. 1998 (Eds.) Between Data Science and Applied Data Analysis. 2003 Hans-Hermann Bock Marcello Chiodi Antonino Mineo Editors Advances in Multivariate Data Analysis Proceedings of the Meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, University of Palermo, July 5-6, 2001 With 48 Figures and 56 Tables i Springer Prof. Dr. Hans-Hermann Bock Institute of Statistics RWTH Aachen University Wuellnerstr. 3 52056 Aachen Germany [email protected] Prof. Marcello Chiodi Prof. Antonino Mineo Department of Statistics and Mathematics Silvio Vianelli University of Palermo Viale delle Scienze 90128 Palermo Italy [email protected] [email protected] ISBN 978-3-540-20889-1 ISBN 978-3-642-17111-6 (eBook) DOl 10.1007/978-3-642-17111-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2004102976 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broad casting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. springeronline.com © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2004 Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York in 2004 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the rele vant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Softcover-Design: Erich Kirchner, Heidelberg SPIN 10984314 43/3130IDK - 5 4 3 2 1 0 - Printed on acid-free paper Preface This volume contains a selection of papers presented during the biennial meeting of the CLAssification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Societa Italiana di Statistica which was orga nized by the Istituto di Statistica of the Universita degli Studi di Palermo and held in the Palazzo Steri in Palermo on July 5-6, 2001. For this conference, and after checking the submitted 4 page abstracts, 54 papers were admitted for presentation. They covered a large range of topics from multivariate data analysis, with special emphasis on classification and clustering, computa tional statistics, time series analysis, and applications in various classical or recent domains. A two-fold careful reviewing process led to the selection of 22 papers which are presented in this vol ume. They convey either a new idea or methodology, present a new algorithm, or concern an interesting application. We have clustered these papers into five groups as follows: 1. Classification Methods with Applications 2. Time Series Analysis and Related Methods 3. Computer Intensive Techniques and Algorithms 4. Classification and Data Analysis in Economics 5. Multivariate Analysis in Applied Sciences. In each section the papers are arranged in alphabetical order. The editors - two of them the organizers of the CLADAG confer ence - would like to express their gratitude to the authors whose enthusiastic participation made the meeting possible and very successful. We also want to extend our thanks to the interna tional group of reviewers for their diligence and the time spent in their professional refereeing work. Moreover, we are grateful to the chairpersons and discussants of the 13 sessions of the confer ence, their comments provided useful suggestions for the authors and the audience. VI Preface Special thanks are due to the Local Organizing Committee from the University of Palermo that comprised Salvatore Bologna, Angelo M. Mineo, Antonella Plaia together with Antonino Mineo (coordinator) and Marcello Chiodi who have co-edited this volume. Finally, we would like to thank Dr. Martina Bihn from Springer Verlag for the excellent cooperation in publishing this volume. Palermo and Aachen Hans-Hermann Bock Marcello Chiodi Antonino Mineo List of Referees We thank the following scientists for their expertness and dili gence in reviewing the papers of this volume: Pietro Amenta, Leece Thomas Bausch, Garmish-Partenkirchen Andrea Cerioli, Parma Cathrine Charles, Namur Juergen Hansohm, Munchen Roger Lafosse, Toulouse Berthold Lausen, Erlangen-Niirnberg Yves Lechevallier, Rocquencourt Herbert Lee, Santa Cruz Gianfranco Lovison, Palermo Magdalena Mif31er-Behr, Basel Jean Opsomer, Ames Andrea Pallini, Bologna Andrea Pastore, Venezia Cira Perna, Salerno Wolfgang Polasek, Basel Gunter Ritter, Passau Roberto Rocci, Roma Gilbert Saporta, Paris Michael Schimek, Graz Tonino ScIocco, Chieti Roberta Siciliano, Napoli Javier Trejos, San Jose Gerhard Tutz, Munchen Ralf Wagner, Bielefeld Klaus-Dieter Wernecke, Berlin Contents Part I. Classification Methods with Applications The STP Procedure as Overfitting Avoidance Tool in Classification Trees ............................... 3 Carmela Cappelli, Francesco Mola A Modal Symbolic Pattern Classifier ................ 15 Francisco de A. T. de Carvalho, Renata M.C.R. de Souza, Rosanna Verde Proximity Measures Between Classification Trees ... 27 Rossella Miglio, Gabriele Soffritti Ordinal Classification Trees Based on Impurity Measures 39 Raffaella Piccarreta Part II. Time Series Analysis and Related Methods Space Time Noisy Observation Smoothing 55 Di Giacinto VaIter, Ippoliti Luigi, Romagnoli Luca Spectral Analysis in Frequency and Time Domain for Noisy Time Series ............................... 67 Lara Fontanella, Mariaqrazia Grasiturco A Resistant Measure of Heteroskedasticity in Explorative Time Series Analysis 81 Marcella Niglio, Stefano Maria Pagnotta Part III. Computer Intensive Techniques and Algorithms Smoothing Score Algorithm for Generalized Additive Models .................................... 95 Claudio Conversano X Contents Bootstrap Variable Selection in Neural Network Regression Models 109 Francesco Giordano, Michele La Rocca, Cira Perna Robust Centre Location in Radial Basis Function Networks 121 Marilena Pillati, Daniela G. Cala The Genetic Algorithm Estimates for the Parameters of Order p Normal Distributions 133 Salvatore Vitrano, Roberto Baragona Part IV. Classification and Data Analysis in Economics Non-linear Dynamics in the Industrial Production Index 147 Alessandra Amendola, Giuseppe Storti Tensorial Co-Structure Analysis for the Full Multi Modules Customer Satisfaction Evaluation 159 Pietro Amenta, Pasquale Sarnacchiaro A Proposal of Classification of Wholesale Trade Enterprises on the Base of Structural and Performance Indicators 169 Paola Anitori, Carlo De Gregorio The Analysis of Poverty in Italy: A Fuzzy Dynamic Approach 181 Daria Mendola, Stefano De Cantis Part V. Multivariate Analysis in Applied Sciences Combining Information from Several Experts: Selecting and Stopping Rules in Sequential Consulting195 Patrizia Agati Contents XI A Spatial Clustering Hierarchical Model for Disease Mapping 209 Massimo Bilancia, Alessio Pollice Second-order Interaction in a Trivariate Generalized Gamma Distribution 219 Salvatore Bologna, Gianfranco Lovison Mortality and Air Pollution in Philadelphia: A Dynamic Generalized Linear Modelling Approach ...233 Monica Chiogna, Carlo Gaetan The Multivariate Adaptive Sampling for Estimating the Diversity in Biological Populations 245 Stefano A. Gatione, Tonia Di Battista Adjusted Least Square Estimation for Noisy Images 255 Ippoliti Luigi, Romagnoli Luca Flexible Dynamic Regression Models for Real-time Forecasting of Air Pollutant Concentration 265 Pietro Mantovan, Andrea Pastore Author Index 277 Subject Index 279