Adapting to Climate Change: An International Perspective PDF
Preview Adapting to Climate Change: An International Perspective
Adapting to Climate Change: An International Perspective Springer New York Berlin Heidelberg Barcelona Budapest Hong Kong London Milan Paris Santa Clara Singapore Tokyo Joel B. Smith Neeloo Bhatti Gennady V. Menzhulin Ron Benioff Max Campos Bubu Jallow Frank Rijsberman Mikhail I. Budyko R.K. Dixon EDITORS Adapting to Climate Change: An International Perspective Springer Joel B. Smith BubuJallow Hagler Bailly Consulting, Inc. Department of Water Resources Boulder, CO 80306 Banjul USA The Gambia Neeloo Bhatti Frank Rijsberman Argonne National Laboratory Resource Analysis Argonne, IL 60439 Delft USA The Netherlands Gennady Menzhulin Mikhail I. Budyko State Hydrological Institute State Hydrological Institute St. Petersburg St. Petersburg Russian Federation Russian Federation Ron Benioff R.K. Dixon U.S. Country Studies Program U.S. Country Studies Program Washington, DC 20585 Washington, DC 20585 USA USA Max Campos Central American Project on Climate Change San Jose Costa Rica The information in this document has been subjected to technical peer review, but does not necessar ily reflect the official views of any governmental or intergovernmental body. CIP data available. Printed on acid-free paper. © 1996 Springer-Verlag New York, Inc. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1996 Copyright is not claimed for works by U.S. government employees. All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written pemrission of the publisher (Springer-Verlag New York, Inc., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by sim ilar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is fOibidden. The use of general descriptive names, trade names, trademarks, etc., in this publication, even if the for mer are not especially identified, is not to be taken as a sign that such names, as understood by the Trade Marks and Merchandise Marks Act, may accordingly be used freely by anyone. Acquisitions Editor: Robert C. Garber Production managed by Laura Carlson; manufacturing supervised by Joe Quatela. Camera-ready copy prepared by the editors. 987 6 5 432 1 ISBN-13:978-1-4613-8473-1 e-ISBN-13:978-1-4613-8471-7 SPIN 10522981 DOl: 10.1007/978-1-4613-8471-7 Introduction Global climate change is one of the most important environmental issues facing the world today. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) acknowledges the potential for global climate change to have major effects on the world economy. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli mate Change (lPCC) is focused on evaluating the scientific data on climate change and analyzing the potential responses to it. One of the primary issues in the global climate change debate is how to adapt to any change that might occur. The process ofidentifying adaptation measures and evaluating their effectiveness is the focus of this book. In dealing with climate change adaptation, the sequence of events in conduct ing these types of analyses can be generalized as follows: • Develop scenarios for the possible range of climate change, • Assess the vulnerability of various sectors of the national economy and infrastructure to climate change, and • Identify and evaluate measures in each sector to adapt to the climate change It is this third step that is the subject of this book. In presenting this material, Chapter 1 gives an overview of the concept of climate change adaptation and the general principles guiding the conduct of analyses in this area. Chapters 2-7 give the results of evaluating climate change adaptation options in the agriculture, water resources, coastal resources, forest and ecosystems, fisheries, and human settlements sectors. While these do not represent all sectors that will need to con sider adaptive measures, they do reflect those which are considered to be among the most sensitive to global climate change. It will be evident from the work presented here that the state-of-the-art of cli mate change adaptation assessment is evolving. The wide range of uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change itself makes the adaptation assessments even more difficult to carry out. Nevertheless, it is clear that this work can lay the foundation for countries to develop appropriate and cost-effective steps to adapt to climate change On May 22-25,1995, more than 100 scientists, engineers, and policy analysts representing 30 nations convened in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, to dis cuss the methodologies for assessing adaptation to climate change and to share the results of country studies designed to determine the effectiveness of various vi Introduction approaches. The International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation As sessments, the first international conference to deal exclusively with issue, was chaired by S. Avdjushin (Russian Federation), R. Dixon (USA), and F. Rijsber man (Netherlands). It was cosponsored by the Russian Federal Service for Hy drometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the U.S. Country Studies Pro gram, and the Directorate General International Cooperation of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign. The papers in this book represent the results of work by the participating countries in researching climate change adaptation. The conference statement, the "St. Petersburg Statement on Adaptation to Climate Change," is included here. Conference Summary Statement Approximately one hundred scientists, engineers, and policy analysts, represent ing about 30 nations, convened in St. Petersburg, Russia, from May 22-25, 1995, at the International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation. They discussed methodologies for assessing climate change adaptation and presented prelimi nary results of country studies dealing with adaptation to climate change. The Conference agreed to the following definition of adaptation to climate change: Adaptation to climate change includes all adjustments in behavior or economic structure that reduce the vulnerability of society to changes in the climate system. The discussions concerning response policies to climate change in the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the In tergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC), and the Conference of the Par ties (COP) of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have emphasized stabilizing ambient greenhouse gas concentrations. The con ference participants urge the Parties to the UNFCCC to consider more fully the development, evaluation, and costing of adaptation strategies, as well, to prop erly consider mitigation and adaptation options for all countries. The conference participants reached the following conclusions in their delib erations related to adaptation to climate change in general, as well as adaptation for specific sectors of human activity. These conclusions do not necessarily reflect views of their governments and are offered to support preparation for adaptation as recognized in the UNFCCC (Art. 4.1(b». The IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation were discussed at the conference and found to be a good framework for country study adaptation assessments. The draft IPCC working group II report now being circulated for comments, however, does not provide a particu larly broad overview of adaptation options open to countries. Many more options, particularly related to anticipatory adaptation, are expected. The experience that regions and peoples have had in adapting to their current climatic conditions for centuries can be a rich source of inspiration for develop ing adaptation response policies. This experience also shows that an increase in sustainability of economic development is likely to go hand in hand with viii Conference Summary Statement increased capabilities to cope with adverse climate conditions and changes therein. Incorporating this formal (and informal) knowledge and experience into the adaptation assessment process will require a bottom-up approach that could benefit from the use of participatory planning procedures. The preparation for climate change adaptation will require more quantitative analysis, including identification, analysis, costing, and evaluation of a broad spectrum of adaptation options related to ecosystems, human health, economy, and society, as well as support for effective communication of analysis results to stakeholder groups to increase their social acceptability. Feasible adaptation schemes must also address current anthropogenic stresses. The UNFCCC recognizes the importance of adaptation (Art. 3.3.) and calls on Parties to prepare for adaptation as well as mitigation (Art. 4.I(b». Funding through the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the interim financial mecha nism of the UNFCCC, for developing countries that wish to address adaptation is, to date, limited to planning for adaptation (Stage I) as part of the national com munications. Nevertheless, it is considered important that countries start to deter mine the cost of the options to adapt to climate change. The participants urge the COP of the UNFCCC to broaden the GEF mandate related to adaptation. Recommendation The participants in the International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation call on the Parties to the UNFCCC to pay more attention to the options to adapt to climate change, while continuing their efforts to stabilize greenhouse gas con centrations. The participants calion the IPCC to provide more guidance on the options available to countries to adapt to climate change and to assess their adap tations. Acknowledgments The participants wish to thank the sponsors of the meeting, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the U.S. Country Studies Program, and the Directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for their support in organizing this important meeting. Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v Conference Summary Statement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. vii 1 Overview Rapporteur's Statement Joel B. Smith and Neeloo Bhatti . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 An Overview ofA daptation to Climate Change M. Toman and R. Bierbaum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Past Changes in Climate and Societal Adaptations M.I. Budyko. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 16 Assessing Climate Change Adaptations: The [PCC Guidelines T .R. Carter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 27 Adapting to Climate Variations in Developing Regions: A Planning Framework Antonio R. Magalhaes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 44 The Growth ofA daptation Capacity: Practice and Policy Ian Burton ................................................... 55 Using a Decision Matrix to Assess Climate Change Options Joel B. Smith . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68 The Potential Costs of Climate Change Adaptation S. Fankhauser. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 80 Malawi: How Climate Change Adaptation Options Fit within the UNFCCC National Communication and National Development Plans Jean Theu, Geoffrey Chavula, and Christine Elias . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97 2 Agriculture Rapporteur's Statement T.R. Carter ................................................... 107 Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Egypt M.H. EI-Shaer, H.M. Eid, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, and D. Hillel. . . . .. 109 x Contents Adaptive Measures for Zimbabwe's Agricultural Sector C.H. Matarira, F.C. Mwamuka, and I.M. Makadho ................... 128 Model-Based Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for Wheat Yields in Kazakhstan S.V. Mizina, I.B. Eserkepova, O.V. Pilifosova, S.A. Dolgih, and E.F. Gossen .................................................. 148 The Impact of Climate Change on Spring Wheat Yield in Mongolia and Its Adaptability Sh. Bayasgalan, B. Bolortsetseg, D. Dagvadorj, and L. Natsagdorj . . . . . .. 164 Some Adaptations of the Tea Plant to Dry Environments M.A. Wijeratne ............................................... 174 Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Global Food Production: Options for Adaptive Strategies M.1. Budyko and G.V. Menzhulin ................................. 188 3 Water Resources Rapporteur's Statement Ron Benioff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 207 Water Resources Adaptation Strategy in an Uncertain Environment Z. Kaczmarek and 1. Napiork6wski ................................ 211 Anthropogenic Climate Change and Reduction of Water Resources: Adaptation Issues Related to the Economy in Kazakhstan V.V. Golubtsov, V.1. Lee, and 1.1. Skotselyas ........................ 225 Adaptation ofH ydropower Generation in Costa Rica and Panama to Climate Change M. Campos, A. Sanchez, and D. Espinosa ........................... 232 Managing Water Resources for Climate Change Adaptation Eugene Z. Stakhiv . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 243 Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise in the Pearl River Delta Area: Preliminary Study Results and a Comprehensive Adaptation Strategy H. Yang ..................................................... 265 4 Coastal Resources Rapporteur's Statement Frank Rijsberman. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 279 Sea-Level Rise Along the Lima Coastal Zone, Peru, as a Result of Global Warming: Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Measures N. Teves, G. Laos, S. Carrasco, C. San Roman, L. Pizarro, G. Cardenas, and A. Romero ..................................... 283
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