Active system control : design of system resilience PDF
Preview Active system control : design of system resilience
Igor Schagaev · Brian Robinson Kirk Active System Control Design of System Resilience Active System Control Igor Schagaev (cid:129) Brian Robinson Kirk Active System Control Design of System Resilience IgorSchagaev BrianRobinsonKirk Director ResearchDirector IT-ACSLtd RobinsonSystemsEngineeringLtd StevenageSG11RR PainswickGL66QJ Hertfordshire,UK Gloucestershire,UK ISBN978-3-319-46812-9 ISBN978-3-319-46813-6 (eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-46813-6 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2017945950 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingAG2018 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. 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Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Preface We used the word active in the title of our book, Active System Control, because we are actively trying to predict the future behaviour of the system, and react accordinglyinordertomanagethesafetyandcontinuetheoperationofthesystem beingcontrolled. We used the word system because we create a model of a system, based on an aggregateofmodelsofitselements.Itisusedtotrytopredicttheparametersofthe system’sbehaviour. We use the word control because we continually monitor the current situation andadaptthecontrolofthesystemtomakethebestofthecircumstances. Therefore,ActiveSystemControlistherighttitle,andtheabbreviationASCwill beusedinthetext. Inthisbookwebrieflyanalysewhatisrequiredfromon-boarddevicesinorder tosupportactivesystemcontrol,thatis,whatmustbedonetosustaineverydaysafe operationandsummarisetherequirementsforthisclassofdevices. Wealsointroducethenewconceptofasafetydevice—the“activeblackbox”— whichmightbeusedforaviation,transport,andnuclearandchemicalplants.Inthe coming age of “driverless” transport, it is particularly relevant to the automotive sectortomonitorthebehaviourofsemi-autonomousandfullyautonomousvehicles carryingpassengers. Separately, and briefly, we describe the regulations in transport segments rele- vanttotheapplicationofexistingandproposeddevices.Westartwithananalysis of air transport because this is a well-established and reasonably well-understood domainwitharelativelymaturesafetyculture. Stevenage,UK IgorSchagaev Painswick,UK BrianRobinsonKirk v Acknowledgements Thisbookincludeseffortsfromquiteanumberofpeople.Dr.FelixFriedrich,ETH (Zurich),Dr.FlorianNegeleandDr.ThomasKaegiwereinvolvedinthedevelop- ment of flight mode algorithms, as well as the system architecture and design requiredtoimplementtheconceptofactivesystemcontrolinthegeneralaviation aircraftapplicationdomain. Engineer Alex Schagaev (IT-ACS LTD) developed and tested various flight scenarios to detect conditions of flight mode changes, and verified fight mode changes using two flight simulators—X-plane and Microsoft—in preparation for field trials using general aviation aircraft. This enabled us to improve our under- standingoftheconditionsforflightmodechanges,whichwerenotknownbefore, andtorefinetheflightmodemodel. Several consultants from the areas of aircraft design, testing and simulations were invited and contributed in various chapters: Dr. S. Plyaskota was fully involved in the development of the classification of aviation and analysis of the market domains. His efforts are highly regarded and appreciated. Dr. V Bukov consultedinthe“algebraic”descriptionofourgraphlogicmodel(GLM)represen- tation.Alongwithhiscolleagues,hewasinvolvedinmodellingandsimulatingthe trialaircraftairpressuresystem. Dr. Kai Goebel (NASA) made contributions to the prognostic aspects of our approach and the role of active system control in the whole book, especially in Chap.10. Wesincerelyappreciatehelpofourcolleaguesandfriendsandofferourheartfelt thanks. vii Contents 1 Aviation:Landscape,Classification,RiskData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 SurveyoftheAviationApplicationDomain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Terminology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ClassificationofAviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 TheAircraftMarket. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 SafetyandRiskofFlight.. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. 24 AviationSafetyinCommercialAviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 MainRiskAgentsandTheirContribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 RiskFactorsandFlightPhases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 RiskandSafetyinGeneralAviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 AccidentStatistics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 FlightRiskAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 FirstOccurrencesandSequenceofEvents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 CausesandFactorsofAccidents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 SafetyManagementScheme. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Insurance,RegulationandAviationSafety. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 FlightSafetyandSafetyControlCycles inAviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 ConstraintsandFailuresofSafetyManagement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 2 ActiveSystemControlandSafetyApproach,andRegulation inOtherApplicationDomains. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 ApproachtoSafetyinCriticalSystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 SafetyApproachinIndustrialSystemsandMachinery. . . . . . . . . . . . 46 ApproachtoSafetyinProcessPlants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 ApproachtoSafetyinSmallIndustrialSystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 ix x Contents SafetyApproachintheAutomotiveIndustry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 CurrentOn-BoardSafetySystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 PhysicalSafetySystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 RouteSafetySystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 DrivingSafetySystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 DriverSafetyAssurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 SafetyImprovement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 OperationalSafetyCycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 51 FutureSafetySystemsintheAutomotiveIndustry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 SafetyApproachintheRailIndustry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 CurrentOn-BoardSafetySystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 PhysicalSafetySystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 RouteSafetySystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 DrivingSafetySystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 DriverSafetyAssurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 SafetyImprovement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 OperationalSafetyCycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 57 FutureSafetySystemsintheRailDomain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 SafetyApproachintheSpaceDomain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 ExistingStandardisation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 StandardsintheIndustrialDomain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 SafetyDefinitionsofIEC61508. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 FunctionalSafetyAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 StandardsintheRailDomain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 TheSafetyCase. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 DevelopmentLife-CycleforSafety-RelatedSystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 SafetyIntegrityLevels(SILs). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 StandardsintheSpaceDomain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 FunctionalSafetyStandardsBasedUponIEC61508. . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 3 AircraftFlightReliabilityandtheSafetyLandscape ofAircraftUse. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 AnOperationalReliabilityModelforAircraft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 ReliabilityModelofaFlight. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 OperationalReliabilityModel:Equations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 MeasuresofSystemReliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 TheSafetyMaintenanceLandscape. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 DevelopmentsinModernAviationandSafety. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 DevelopmentsinRisk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 ChainModeFlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 LatencyofFaultandSafetyMonitoring. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Contents xi TheSafetyMaintenanceLandscape:Commercial Aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 On-GroundManagementofSafety. . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. 87 TimingforSafetyManagementbetweenFlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Social,PoliticalandCommercialAspects ofAviationSafety. . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . 90 FlightSafetyVersusRiskandStatistics: FlightDataParadox. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 RiskandStatistics. . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . 94 ExternalandInternalAspectsofAircraftSafety. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 4 ActiveSafetyRelativetoExistingDevices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 99 ActiveSystemControlandSystemSafetyVersus AircraftManagement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 SafetyToolsandSupportiveDevices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 SafetyDevices:BriefHistoryandEvolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 ExistingFlightDataRecordingDevices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 MilitaryFlightDataRecordingDevicesandTesting Recorders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 RequirementsforNewFlightDataRecording andProcessingSystem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 FlightDataProcessingSystemPost-flightAnalysis. .. . . .. . . .. . . .. 110 Constraints. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 TheNatureofDevicesforFutureAircraft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 5 PrincipleofActiveSystemControl(Theory). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 TheGoals,RoleandStructure oftheChapter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . 121 ActiveSystemControlOverview.. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . 123 DefiningandImplementingthePASC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 StructureofResearchofActiveSystemControl. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 PrincipleofActiveSystemControl. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 FactorstoTakeintoAccountMaking ActiveSystemControlWork. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 DefinitionofthePASC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 PASCandElementsofRedundancyTheory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 ThePASCAlgorithminMoreDetail. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 PASC:DependabilityandFaultTolerance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
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