ESSAYS FOR THE THIRD CENTURY Vincent Davis, General Editor ACCESS TO ENERGY 2000 and After MELVIN A. CONANT THE UNIVERSITY PRESS OF KENTUCKY Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Conant, Melvin. Access to energy, 2000 and after. (Essays for the third century) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Petroleum industry and trade. 2. Power resources. 3. Energy policy. 4. Economic forecasting. I. Title. II. Series. HD9560.5.C58 333.7 79-15015 ISBN 0-8131-0401-7 Copyright © 1979 by The University Press of Kentucky Scholarly publisher for the Commonwealth serving Berea College, Centre College of Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky University, The Filson Club, Georgetown College, Kentucky Historical Society, Kentucky State University, Morehead State University, Murray State University, Northern Kentucky University, Transylvania University, University of Kentucky, University of Louisville, and Western Kentucky University. Editorial and Sales Offices: Lexington, Kentucky 40506 TO CHRISTA Contents Preface ix Introduction 1 1. The Nature of the Crisis: Energy Supply/Demand, 1977-2000 6 2. The Concession System & the Oil Host Governments 27 3. The Challenge of Change: The Oil Importer & Oil Exporter Response 55 4. The Future of the International Oil Industry 76 5. Nuclear Energy: To 2000 & Beyond by Charles K. Ebinger 85 6. Ocean Frontiers of Energy by Chris ta G. Conant 102 Conclusion 115 Notes 123 Index 129 Abbreviations BP British Petroleum CFP Compagnie Française des Pétroles CIEC Conference on International Economie Cooperation IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IEA International Energy Agency IEI International Energy Institute IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development INOC Iraq National Oil Company IOC International Oil Companies IPC Iraq Petroleum Company IRB International Resources Bank LDC Less Developed Country LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MMB/D Million Barrels per Day MMB/DOE Million Barrels per Day Oil Equivalent NIEO New International Economic Order NIOC National Iranian Oil Company OAPEC Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Coun tries OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Devel opment OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Socal Standard Oil of California TPC Turkish Petroleum Company UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Develop ment