A Wary Embrace: A Lowy Institute Paper: Penguin Special: What the China-Russia relationship means for the world

171 Pages·2017·1.011 MB·english

by  Bobo Lo

About the Book
With Western countries consumed by domestic problems, will it be
China and Russia that now define the rules of global politics?
In a disorderly world, each has become increasingly assertive, and
their partnership has emerged from relative obscurity to acquire a
new prominence. Yet appearances are deceptive. Beijing and
Moscow have shown no capacity to cooperate on grand strategy or
establish new international norms. This is no authoritarian alliance,
but a partnership of strategic convenience – pragmatic, calculating
and constrained.
Penguin Specials
‘We believed in the existence in this country of a vast reading public
for intelligent books at a low price, and staked everything on it’
Sir Allen Lane, founder of Penguin Books.
The first affordable quality books for a mass audience were brought
out by Penguin nearly eighty years ago. And while much has
changed since then, the way we read books is only now becoming
different. Sometimes it is still only a hardback or paperback book that
will do. But at other times we prefer to read on something either
more portable – a dedicated reading device or our smart mobile
phone – or more connected, such as a tablet or a computer.
Where we are or how much time we have often decides what it is we
will read next.
Penguin Specials are designed to fill a gap. They are short, they are
original and affordable, and they are written by some of today’s best
and most exciting writers.
Written to be read over a long commute or a short journey, in your
lunch hour or between dinner and bedtime, these brief books provide
a short escape into a fictional world or act as a primer in a particular
field or provide a new angle on an old subject.
Always informative and entertaining, Penguin Specials offer
excellent writing that you can read on the move or in a spare
moment for less than the price of a cup of coffee.

CONTENTS
Prologue
PART I: The Asymmetrical Partnership
Wrestling with history
The balance sheet: Achievements and misfires
PART II: Russia, China, and the World
Russia and the world
China and the world
Convergence and divergence
PART III: Myths, Realities, and Implications
Making sense of a complex relationship
PART IV: Outlook
China–Russia relations in the age of Trump
Endnotes
Acknowledgements
To Uncle Hung Koon and Aunty Kathy
With love.
The Lowy Institute is an independent, nonpartisan international
policy think tank. The Institute provides high-quality research and
distinctive perspectives on the issues and trends shaping Australia’s
role in the world. The Lowy Institute Papers are peer-reviewed
essays and research papers on key international issues affecting
Australia and the world.
For a discussion on A Wary Embrace with Bobo Lo and leading
commentators on China–Russia relations, visit the Lowy Institute’s
daily commentary and analysis site, The Interpreter:
lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/debate/wary-embrace
Prologue
In a world that has rarely seemed more fluid, the relationship
between China and Russia has risen to unprecedented prominence.
Little more than a decade ago, the general reaction to it was one of
indifference. Western policymakers ignored the ‘strategic
partnership’, there was little media coverage, and even the academic
community preferred to focus elsewhere. Today, it is a very different
story, with many observers seeing Sino-Russian engagement as a
game-maker in twenty-first century international politics.
In 2008, I characterised the relationship as an ‘axis of
convenience’. By this I meant that it was more than a transitory,
tactically driven phenomenon, but fell short of being a true strategic
partnership, let alone an authoritarian alliance. It was based on cold-
eyed pragmatism rather than a deeper like-mindedness, and
combined ‘tactical expediency with strategic calculus and long
views’.1 Since then, much has happened. We have endured the
biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression. China has
emerged as a bona fide global player. Russia’s annexation of Crimea
has led to the worst crisis with the West in more than three decades.
And the authority of the United States faces its greatest tests since
the end of the Cold War.
Amid all this turbulence and uncertainty, the Sino-Russian
partnership has appeared to prosper regardless. As far as Beijing
and Moscow are concerned, theirs has been a tale of ever onward
and upward, and some have claimed the dawn of a new era. The