A Treatise on Induction and Probability

311 Pages·2001·14.386 MB·English

by  Georg Henrik von Wright

The International Library of Philosophy
A TREATISE ON INDUCTION
AND PROBABILITY
Founded by C. K. Ogden
The International Library of Philosophy
PHILOSOPHY OF LOGIC AND MATHEMATICS
In 8 Volumes
I The Nature of Mathematics Black
II The Technique of Controversy Bogoslovsky
III The Limits of Science Chwistek
IV Foundations of Geometry and Induction Nicod
v The Foundations of Mathematics Braithwaite
VI Logical Studies von Wright
VII A Treatise on Induction and Probability von Wright
VIII An Examination of Logical Positivism Weinberg
A TREATISE ON INDUCTION
AND PROBABILITY
GEORG HENRIK VON WRIGHT
First published in 1951 by
Routledge and Kegan Paul Ltd
Reprinted in 2000, 2001 (twice) by
Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Transferred to Digital Printing 2003
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group
Printed and bound by Antony Rowe Ltd, Eastbourne
© 1951 Georg Henrik von Wright
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced
or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means,
now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying
and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without
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of the works reprinted in the International Library of Philosophy.
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A CIP catalogue record for this book
is available from the British Library
A Treatise on Induction and Probability
ISBN 0-415-22548-5
Philosophy of Logic and Mathematics: 8 Volumes
ISBN 0-415-22575-2
The International Library of Philosophy: 56 Volumes
ISBN 0-415-21803-9
To C.D.B.

CONTENTS
Preface page II
CHAPTER ONE
INDUCTION AND ITS PROBLEMS
x. On the Division ofKnowledge. Anticipation and
Induction I3
2. On the Division of Science. The savoir pour prevoir I 5
3· Induction and Discovery 16
4· The Justification of Induction 20
5· The Three Problems of Induction 30
CHAPTER TWO
PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS ON LOGIC
I. On Propositions
2. On Properties
3· On Relations
4· On Numbers
5· On Sequences
CHAPTER THREE
THE FORM OF INDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS
LAWS OF NATURE
I. Induction as Inference 63
2. The Logic of Conditions 66
3· Statistical Laws 77
CHAPTER FOUR
INDUCTION AND ELIMINATION
I. The Methods of Induction 84
2. The Method of Elimination. General Remarks 87
3· The Method of Agreement. The Simple Case 93
4· The Method of Difference. The Simple Case g6
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CONTENTS
page
5· The Joint Method. The Simple Case 97
6. The Method of Agreement. The Complex Case I02
7. The Method of Difference. The Complex Case I r 6
8. The Joint Method. The Complex Case II9
9· Elimination and the Practice of Science I 26
CHAPTER FIVE
INDUCTION AND DEDUCTION
1. The Supplementary Premisses of Induction I29
2. The Deterministic Postulate I3I
3· The Selection Postulate I35
CHAPTER SIX
INDUCTION AND DEFINITION
I. Actual and Ideal Induction I40
2. Induction and the Formation of Concepts I4I
3· Induction and the Rectification of Laws I47
4· Remarks on the Historical Development of the
Logic of Inductive Truth I 5 I
CHAPTER SEVEN
THE LOGIC OF PROBABILITY
I. The Concepts of Probability 167
2. The Calculus of Probability I73
3· The Axioms I76
4· The Process of Inference I77
5· The Maximum Principle I8I
6. The Multiplication Principle I8I
7· The Principle of Extensionality I84
8. The Principle of Equivalence 187
9· The Addition Principle 187
ro. The Inverse Principle 190
1 I. The Composition Principle 192
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CONTENTS
page
12. Independence 193
13. The Generalized Elementary Principles 194
14. Independence-Realms 199
15. The Direct Principles of Maximum Probability
and of Great Numbers 204
16. The Inverse Principles of Maximum Proba-
bility and of Great Numbers 206
17. Pseudo-Deductions of the Inverse Principles of
MaximumProbabilityandofGreatNumbers 210
18. The Principle of Succession 213
19. The Interpretation of the Calculus. and the
Analysis ofProbability 215
20. Frequency, Possibility, Degree of Belief, and
Probability 216
CHAPTER EIGHT
PROBABILITY AND PREDICTION
I. Induction and Probability 223
2. The Idea of Chance 225
3· Random Distribution, Equal Possibility, Ra-
tional Degree of Belief, and Chance 228
4· Chance and Determinism 234
CHAPTER NINE
PROBABILITY AND LAWS OF NATURE
1. The Concept of Real Inductive Probability 237
2. The Concept of Real Inductive Probability
(Continued) 239
3· The Argument from Confirmation 245
4· The Argument from Confirmation. (Continued). 249
5· The Paradox of Confirmation 254
6. The Argument from Simplicity 256
7. The Argument from Analogy 264
8. Inductive Probability and Types of Law 272
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