A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research PDF
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A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research Committee on the Development of a Strategic Vision for the U.S. Antarctic Program Polar Research Board Division on Earth and Life Studies Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under award number PLR-1353826. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agencies or any of their subagencies. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-37367-8 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-37367-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015951217 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http:// www.nap.edu/. Image credits (front cover): Left: Paul Cziko, University of Oregon, and Chi-Hing Christina Cheng, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; iStock Center: Jim Yungel, NASA; Robin Bell, Columbia University Right: Keith Vanderlinde, National Science Foundation; NASA/WMAP Science Team Background: Filipa Carvalho Image credits (back cover): Left: Deneb Karentz, University of San Francisco Center: Elaine Hood, National Science Foundation Right: Vasilii Petrenko, National Science Foundation Copyright 2015 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Con- gress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineer- ing to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medi- cine at www.national-academies.org. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research COMMITTEE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATEGIC VISION FOR THE U.S. ANTARCTIC PROGRAM ROBIN E. BELL (Co-Chair), Columbia University, Palisades, NY ROBERT A. WELLER (Co-Chair), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA DAVID H. BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Columbus JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL CHI-HING CHRISTINA CHENG, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign CALVIN ROBERT CLAUER, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Hampton CRAIG E. DORMAN, U.S. Navy (ret.), Fairbanks, AK ROBERT B. DUNBAR, Stanford University, Stanford, CA DAVID R. MARCHANT, Boston University, Boston, MA MARK A. PARSONS, Research Data Alliance, Rensselaer Institute for Data Exploration and Applications, Troy, NY JEAN PENNYCOOK, Penguin Science, Fresno, CA A. R. RAVISHANKARA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins TED A. SCAMBOS, University of Colorado, Boulder WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY OSCAR M. E. SCHOFIELD, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ JEFFREY P. SEVERINGHAUS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA CRISTINA TAKACS-VESBACH, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer LAUREN EVERETT, Associate Program Officer SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research POLAR RESEARCH BOARD JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE (Chair), University of Massachusetts, Amherst WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado, Boulder SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park KATEY WALTER ANTHONY, University of Alaska, Fairbanks BETSY BAKER, Vermont Law School, South Royalton JOHN CASSANO, University of Colorado, Boulder SARA B. DAS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, Marion, MA EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA BRENDAN KELLY, Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH), Monterey CA JOHN KOVAC, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA NANCY G. MAYNARD, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus (until July 2015) GEORGE B. NEWTON, U.S. Arctic Research Commission, Marstons Mills, MA RAFE POMERANCE, Independent Consultant, Washington, DC CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, AK (until July 2015) GAIUS (GUS) R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA Ex-Officio: LARRY D. HINZMAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks DENEB KARENTZ, University of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Board Director LAURIE GELLER, Program Director LAUREN EVERETT, Associate Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Research and Financial Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Administrative and Financial Assistant vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research Acknowledgments T his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report: Stephen Ackley, University of Texas at San Antonio Richard Alley, Pennsylvania State University, University Park Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Pennsylvania State University, University Park Steven Boggs, University of California, Berkeley John Cassano, University of Colorado, Boulder Rob DeConto, University of Massachusetts, Amherst Hugh Ducklow, Columbia University, Palisades, New York Michael Gooseff, University of Colorado, Boulder Albrecht Karle, University of Wisconsin-Madison Ramon Lopez, University of Texas at Arlington Alison Murray, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada Joseph Silk, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France David Spergel, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ Eric Steig, University of Washington, Seattle Achim Stössel, Texas A&M University, College Station Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by W. Berry Lyons (Ohio State University) and David Karl (University of Hawaii), appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies and the Report Review Com- mittee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. vii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Committee extends a special thanks to Allan T. Weatherwax, Merrimack College, and Roberta L. Marinelli, University of Southern California Los Angeles, who both pro- vided valuable input as ex-officio liaisons to the committee during the course of the study. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring com- mittee and the institution. viii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A Strategic Vision for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction 15 Why We Do Research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, 15 Overview of the U.S. Antarctic Program and Motivation for Strategic Planning, 16 Origin and Goals of This Study, 19 2 Opportunities and Challenges of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research 25 Overview of the Breadth of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science, 25 Intra- and Interagency Context for NSF’s Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research, 34 International Collaboration in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research, 39 Strategic Framework for NSF Investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean Research, 42 3 Suggested Research Priorities for the Coming Decade 45 Maintain a Core Program of Investigator-Driven Research Across a Broad Base of Topics, 45 Support a Few Strategically Chosen Large Research Initiatives, 48 Strategic Priority I: How Fast and by How Much Will Sea Level Rise? The Changing Antarctic Ice Sheets Initiative, 50 Strategic Priority II: How Do Antarctic Biota Evolve and Adapt to the Changing Environment? Decoding the Genomic and Transcriptomic Bases of Biological Adaptation and Response Across Antarctic Organisms and Ecosystems, 65 Strategic Priority III: How Did the Universe Begin, and What Are the Underlying Physical Laws That Govern Its Evolution and Ultimate Fate? A Next-Generation Cosmic Microwave Background Program, 75 Selecting and Supporting the Recommended Priorities, 79 ix Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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