Table Of Content

Advance Praise for A Small State’s Guide to Influence in World Politics “Tom Long has written an invaluable primer for policymakers and diplomats in small states and scholars of International Relations. He offers a new methodo- logical approach to navigating the asymmetries of inter-state relations, based on exhaustive research, a fairly comprehensive bibliography, and a wide-ranging ex- amination of relevant case studies. From a Caribbean perspective, I would have preferred that he had referenced the writings of Shridath Ramphal and Ronald Sanders, but this should not detract from the quality of his research, which is a major contribution to small state diplomacy and IR theory.” Riyad Insanally, Former Ambassador of Guyana to the USA and the Organization of American States “Most books on small states tend to detail a particular issue or the external behavior of states in one region. This book is a remarkable attempt to go beyond this by analyzing the entire spectrum of small states—European as well as in the developing world. Long does this by formulating a detailed pre-theoretical framework through which small state influence attempts can be impartially assessed. The book is notable for both its attention to careful theorizing, as well as the breadth of cases drawn on in support of the author’s thesis. Anyone interested in the security and economic behavior of small states will find much to ponder theoretically, and much to draw on descriptively. This book is an important addition to the small state literature, and it deserves to be widely read.” —Jacqueline-Braveboy-Wagner, City University of New York BRIDGING THE GAP Series Editors James Goldgeier Bruce Jentleson Steven Weber The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: Why Strategic Superiority Matters Matthew Kroenig Planning to Fail: The US Wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan James H. Lebovic War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics Jeffrey A. Friedman Delaying Doomsday: The Politics of Nuclear Reversal Rupal N. Mehta Delta Democracy: Pathways to Incremental Civic Revolution in Egypt and Beyond Catherine E. Herrold Adaptation under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime David Barno and Nora Bensahel The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order Rush Doshi A Small State's Guide to Influence in World Politics Tom Long A Small State’s Guide to Influence in World Politics TOM LONG 1 3 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2022 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Control Number: 2021950184 ISBN 978– 0– 19– 092621– 2 (pbk.) ISBN 978– 0– 19– 092620– 5 (hbk.) DOI: 10.1093/ oso/ 9780190926205.001.0001 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Paperback printed by LSC Communications, United States of America Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America Contents Acknowledgments ix 1. Introduction 1 Who are you calling small? 5 Small states in history 6 Material views 9 Ideational views 11 Relational views 13 Organization and conclusions 15 2. Small States, Big World 17 Small states in International Relations theory 17 Setting the scene: Asymmetrical theory and international context 22 Great- power politics 23 Institutionalization 29 Economic governance 32 Normative environment 35 Structures, relations, and small states today 37 3. Opportunities and Constraints: Conditions for Success 39 Small- state characteristics and relationships 41 Internal factors 43 External factors 45 Asymmetrical international relationships 46 Typological theory and the conditions for relational influence 49 Bilateral asymmetrical relationships and international context 57 4. Playing Small Ball: Strategies for Success 60 Small states’ sources of power 60 Particular- intrinsic 62 Derivative 63 C ollective 64 Cases and strategies 66 Type 1 (red): Patience and perseverance 68 Type 2 (orange): Problem redefinition 69 Type 3 (yellow): Agenda setting for salience 70 Type 4 (green): Finding mutual benefits 71 vi Contents Type 5 (blue): Extraversion 73 Type 6 (violet): Agenda setting and new alternatives 75 Types 7 (white) and 8 (grey): Maintaining the status quo 76 Applying the theory: Case selection and methods 77 Case selection and methods 77 5. Small- State Security 80 Africa: Asymmetry and security diversification 81 Success: Djibouti finds new partners 81 Failure: Gabon deepens dependence 84 Americas: Bases and bargains 88 Success: El Salvador gains benefits and action space 89 Failure: Honduras’s declining benefits at a higher cost 92 Asia: Managing change in the Himalayas 94 Success: Bhutan benefits from alignment 95 Failure: Nepal—A rms, embargos, and asymmetry 99 Europe: Autonomy at geopolitical crossroads 102 Success: Estonia between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization 103 Failure: Moldova between Russia and Europe 106 Conclusions 110 6. Small States in a Global Economy 112 Africa 113 Success: Rwandan aid and autonomy 114 Failure: Aid and policy dependency in Zambia 118 Americas 121 Success: Bolivia, Brazil, and gas 122 Failure: Paraguay, Brazil, and Itaipú 126 Asia 129 Success: Malaysia and the Belt and Road Initiative 130 Failure: Myanmar and the Belt and Road Initiative 132 Europe 135 Success: Portugal leans into the euro crisis 136 Failure: The eurozone’s Greek tragedy 139 Conclusions 143 7. Institutions, Law, and Norms 144 Case 1: Climate and environment 145 Case 2: Human rights 151 Case 3: Regional organizations 157 Case 4: Global public health 163 Conclusions 168 Contents vii 8. Conclusion 170 Comparing types and cases 171 Comparing issue areas 175 Policy applications 178 Findings and implications 179 Appendix 183 Bibliography 185 Index 223 Acknowledgments In autumn 2015, brimming with enthusiasm after the publication of my first book and the submission of several articles on small states, I suggested this book for the newly created Bridging the Gap series at Oxford University Press. The pitch was for a book of somewhat outlandish breadth, with the aim of saying something meaningful about the international relations of the majority of the world’s states. Even more audaciously, I suggested that a book on the often- mar- ginalized topic of small states would offer something for students and scholars of International Relations as well as to policymakers in those many, and diverse, countries. I was fortunate that the audience for that first pitch was Jim Goldgeier, professor, dean, and series editor. Without Jim’s encouragement, interest, and questions, this book probably would not have been written— and certainly not in its current form. More generally, Jim deserves recognition and appreciation for his dedication to helping early career scholars, myself included, find paths in academia and beyond. This book aims to cover an immense topic: the international relations of small states across the world, through several decades, and across multiple issue-a reas. To try to grasp such a broad subject matter, I have benefited from—a nd thor- oughly enjoyed— the work of hundreds of scholars who have written about small states, regional dynamics, and the politics and foreign policies of countries that are often overlooked in the so- called “mainstream” of International Relations. Delving into this disparate and diverse literature has been a reminder of the quality, breadth, and vibrancy of research that began quietly constituting “Global International Relations” well before the term was en vogue. I owe a particular debt of gratitude to several scholars who shared insights and read substantial portions of this early manuscript. For thoughtful comments on early draft chapters, I thank Godfrey Baldacchino, Jacqueline Braveboy- Wagner, Alan Chong, Jack Corbett, Kristin Haugevik, Neal Jesse, Sverrir Steinsson, and Anders Wivel. Several scholars generously responded to my out- of- the- blue emails to share their thoughts and expertise, including Sebastián Bitar, Mahima Duggal, Harsh Pant, David Styan, Haley Swedlund, Christos Vrakopoulos, and Susan Wing. Conversations and correspondence with Brantly Womack were tremendously helpful and encouraging; my own approach to small states and International Relations (IR) owes him a considerable intellectual debt. Parts of this book have been presented in a multitude of venues, including the annual