A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards PDF
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Title Pages University Press Scholarship Online Oxford Scholarship Online A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss Print publication date: 2008 Print ISBN-13: 9780195322989 Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2009 DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.001.0001 Title Pages A Science of Decision Making A Science of Decision Making 2009 (p.iv) Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Page 1 of 3 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015 Title Pages Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2009 by Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Edwards, Ward, 1927–2005. A science of decision making : the legacy of Ward Edwards / edited by Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-532298-9 1. Psychology—Research—Methodology. 2. Psychology—Statistical methods. 3. Psychometrics. 4. Decision making. 5. Edwards, Ward, 1927–2005. I. Weiss, Jie W. II. Weiss, David J. III. Title. BF76.5.E39 2008 153.8'3—dc22 2008015124 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper Page 2 of 3 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015 Contributors to Papers Written for this Volume University Press Scholarship Online Oxford Scholarship Online A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss Print publication date: 2008 Print ISBN-13: 9780195322989 Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2009 DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.001.0001 (p.viii) (p.ix) Contributors to Papers Written for this Volume Janet G. Bauer School of Dentistry University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, California Michele Mouttapa Division of Kinesiology and Health Sciences California State University Fullerton, California James Shanteau Department of Psychology Kansas State University Manhattan, Kansas Sue S. Spackman School of Dentistry University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, California David J. Weiss Department of Psychology Page 1 of 2 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015 Contributors to Papers Written for this Volume California State University Los Angeles, California Jie W. Weiss Division of Kinesiology and Health Sciences California State University Fullerton, California Page 2 of 2 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015 Introduction by the Editors University Press Scholarship Online Oxford Scholarship Online A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss Print publication date: 2008 Print ISBN-13: 9780195322989 Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2009 DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.001.0001 (p.x) (p.xi) Introduction by the Editors As music has its Cher and movies have their Marilyn, so too behavioral decision making has its “Ward,” a figure of such stature that only one name is sufficient for identification. Ward Edwards had a long and astonishingly productive career, during which he not only founded the field of behavioral decision making but continued to enrich it until the very end of his life. In this volume, we reproduce some of Ward’s classic papers, works that have influenced the field since their appearance. We have arranged them chronologically within themes, so that the threads in Ward’s thinking would be visible. We also include some of the ideas that Ward was working on at the end of his life, collaborative projects in most of which we were privileged to participate. Will these half-baked works have the impact of his earlier contributions? We do not know, but Ward thought they might, and he had a pretty good track record for prediction. Editing this volume has been a bittersweet project for us. We are pleased to have the opportunity to introduce the younger generation of researchers to one of the giants on whose shoulders they now stand, and to refresh our more senior colleagues’ memories of Ward the man and Ward the scientist. At the same time, we cannot help seeing his face as we type, and recalling the many happy hours we spent together discussing ideas and Page 1 of 3 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015 Introduction by the Editors carving out new areas of investigation. In reviewing Ward’s publications as we prepared this volume, we were troubled by one aspect of his early writing. Ward followed the stylistic fashion of a distant era by referring to researchers as men, to participants as men, to humans as men. He even uses inferences from a lovely young lady’s actions during a first date as an example of Bayesian updating. Was Ward really so sexist? Not when we knew him. Throughout his career he had female graduate students and female co-authors, and they report having been treated collegially, as both of us were. His writing style did change during the 1970s, so perhaps he was liberated by the feminist movement of that era. We did not get to know Ward until the final phase of his life, the post-Festschrift years. He had already gone through three focal shifts. Ward was trained in perception during graduate school, and continued to produce publications in that field. We have not included any of those works in this volume, as we do not consider that stream to constitute his legacy. However, the psychophysicist’s orientation pervaded his thinking. Both as an experimentalist and a theorist, Ward viewed the individual as the primary unit of analysis. Aggregation of responses over trials was the important step in data analysis. He generally ran small numbers of subjects. Aggregation over people was sometimes necessary to convey information concisely, but that step was not central and might be done impressionistically. The first shift was into the study of gambling. Gambling served both as a metaphor for decisions made under conditions of uncertainty, and as a problem of interest in its own right. Ward loved to play poker and gleefully instructed family children (and kindly Uncle Ward didn’t play for matchsticks!). The second shift occurred after connecting with the statistician Jimmie Savage; Ward became a convert to Bayesianism. He preached the gospel of Bayes as a prescriptive theory of revision of opinion as new information becomes available, and as a foundation for what he saw as a more sensible approach to data analysis. During the 1970s, the third shift occurred. Ward began to provide advice to real-world decision makers, calling himself a decision analyst. He preferred to focus on those making important decisions (because they had funds to hire consultants), but also shared (p.xii) his insights with readers. Multiattribute utility was adopted as the approach that people ought to follow; the consulting analyst’s task was to help decision makers understand their priorities. As Ward moved into new domains, he maintained interests in those he had previously frequented. Consequently, perhaps more than anyone else in the judgment/decision making field, Ward was a generalist. His research fires were stoked by the talks he heard at the “Bayesian Conference”—an annual meeting convened by Ward that was much more open to a variety of topics than its name implied. He could find a connection between almost any talk and something he personally had studied at some point. Page 2 of 3 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015 Introduction by the Editors We give ourselves minor credit for attracting Ward to the examination of personal, non- economic decisions, particularly those related to health behaviors. Perhaps because of his lengthy struggle with Parkinson’s disease, Ward leapt on Jie’s interest in lifestyle choices with health implications. Could multiattribute utility serve as a descriptive model of these choices, even for children? With the addition of a momentary salience parameter, a weight generated specifically at the moment of decision, to accommodate changes in utility over time and circumstance, perhaps. Ward labeled this a million-dollar question, referring both to its centrality for theory and for its potential to attract grant support. So far, it has been a quarter-million dollar question in the latter respect, but we hope for more. Ward and David were involved with an informal group of dentists interested in decisions in that arena. And when Jie was deciding whether to accept a job offer, Ward saw a chance to investigate the neglected class of decisions in which the alternatives are not fully specified, a class that includes many everyday decisions. This volume also includes three obituaries written by scientists who worked with and loved Ward. They present a picture of Ward Edwards as his colleagues saw him, as a rigorous and bold thinker who was at the same time a warm friend with a full set of endearing peculiarities. Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss Page 3 of 3 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015 Introduction to the List of Ward Edwards’s Publications University Press Scholarship Online Oxford Scholarship Online A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss Print publication date: 2008 Print ISBN-13: 9780195322989 Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2009 DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.001.0001 (p.xiii) Introduction to the List of Ward Edwards’s Publications Ward Edwards published in seven decades, contributing almost 200 works to the professional literature. This astonishing record of productivity was the result of a deliberate policy. Ward believed that a first-rate scientist should be able to generate four publications per year. The vagaries of the editorial and publication processes meant that some years saw more papers and some fewer, but Ward was able to maintain that pace over a really long haul. And what papers they were! Most researchers would be proud to produce one truly seminal work in their careers. Ward had at least four. He founded the field of behavioral decision making with the 1954 Psychological Bulletin article, and gave the field it’s name in the 1961 Annual Review summary. He introduced Bayesian thinking to psychologists in the 1963 Psychological Review paper. He launched the tradition of studying heuristics and biases with the 1966 paper on conservatism in probability inference. During the 1970s and 1980s, he showed how to deal with the complexities of real-life decisions with a series on multiattribute utility, culminating in the 1986 book co-written with his former graduate student, Detlof von Winterfeldt. We permit ourselves to hope that his final collaborative efforts with us on decisions that affect personal well-being will also inspire new ways of thinking about important issues. Page 1 of 2 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015 Introduction to the List of Ward Edwards’s Publications Page 2 of 2 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015 Chronological List of Publications Written or Co-Authored by Ward Edwards University Press Scholarship Online Oxford Scholarship Online A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards Jie W. Weiss and David J. Weiss Print publication date: 2008 Print ISBN-13: 9780195322989 Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2009 DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.001.0001 (p.xiv) (p.xv) Chronological List of Publications Written or Co-Authored by Ward Edwards Crutchfield, R.S. & Edwards, W. (1949). The effect of a fixated figure on autokinetic movement. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 39 ,561–568. Edwards, W. (1950). Recent research on pain perception. Psychological Bulletin, 47 , 449–474. Edwards, W. (1950). Emmert’s Law and Euclid’s optics. American Journal of Psychology, 63 , 607–612. Edwards, W., & Boring, E. G. (1951). What is Emmert’s Law? American Journal of Psy- chology, 64 , 416–422. Edwards, W. & Crutchfield, R. S. (1951). Differential reduction of autokinetic move-ment by a fixated figure. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 42 , 25–1. Edwards, W. (1953). Probability-preferences in gambling. American Journal of Psychol- ogy, 66 , 349–364. Edwards, W. (1953). Apparent size of after-images under conditions of reduction. Ameri-can Journal of Psychology, 66 , 449–455. Edwards, W. (1954). Probability-preferences among bets with differing expected values. American Journal of Psychology, 67 , 56–67. Edwards, W. (1954). The reliability of probability-preferences. American Journal of Psychology, 67 , 67–95. Edwards, W. (1954). Methods for computing uncertainties. American Journal of Psychol-ogy, 67 , 164–170. Edwards, W. (1954). Variance preferences in gambling. American Journal of Psychology, 67 , 441–452. Edwards, W. (1954). The theory of decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 51 , 380–417. Edwards, W. (1954). Two- and three-dimensional autokinetic movement as a function of Page 1 of 7 PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy). Subscriber: University of Oxford; date: 24 September 2015
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