A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections PDF
Preview A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis 37 Stanley K. Smith Jeff Tayman David A. Swanson A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections A Practitioner’s Guide to State and Local Population Projections THE SPRINGER SERIES ON DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS AND POPULATION ANALYSIS Series Editor KENNETH C. LAND Duke University Inrecentdecades,therehasbeenarapiddevelopmentofdemographicmodelsandmethods and an explosive growth in the range of applications of population analysis. This series seekstoprovideapublicationoutletbothforhigh-qualitytextualandexpositorybookson modern techniques of demographic analysis and for works that present exemplary applications of suchtechniques tovarious aspectsof populationanalysis. Topicsappropriate fortheseries include: (cid:129) General demographic methods (cid:129) Techniques of standardization (cid:129) Life table modelsand methods (cid:129) Multistate and multiregional lifetables, analyses andprojections (cid:129) Demographic aspects ofbiostatistics and epidemiology (cid:129) Stable populationtheory and its extensions (cid:129) Methods ofindirect estimation (cid:129) Stochastic population models (cid:129) Event historyanalysis, duration analysis,and hazard regressionmodels (cid:129) Demographic projection methods andpopulation forecasts (cid:129) Techniquesofapplieddemographicanalysis,regionalandlocalpopulationestimatesand projections (cid:129) Methods ofestimation and projectionfor business andhealth care applications (cid:129) Methods andestimates forunique populationssuch asschoolsand students Volumes in the series are of interest to researchers, professionals, and students in demography,sociology,economics,statistics,geographyandregionalscience,publichealth and health care management, epidemiology, biostatistics, actuarial science, business, and related fields. For furthervolumes: http://www.springer.com/series/6449 Stanley K. Smith (cid:129) Jeff Tayman David A. Swanson A Practitioner’s Guide to State and Local Population Projections StanleyK.Smith JeffTayman BureauofEconomicand EconomicsDepartment BusinessResearch UniversityofCalifornia-SanDiego UniversityofFlorida SanDiego,CA,USA Gainesville,FL,USA DavidA.Swanson DepartmentofSociology UniversityofCaliforniaRiverside Riverside,CA,USA ISSN1389-6784 ISBN978-94-007-7550-3 ISBN978-94-007-7551-0(eBook) DOI10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0 SpringerDordrechtHeidelbergNewYorkLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013956645 ©SpringerScience+BusinessMediaDordrecht2013 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionor informationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped.Exemptedfromthislegalreservationarebriefexcerpts inconnectionwithreviewsorscholarlyanalysisormaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeing enteredandexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework.Duplication ofthispublicationorpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheCopyrightLawofthe Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer.PermissionsforusemaybeobtainedthroughRightsLinkattheCopyrightClearanceCenter. ViolationsareliabletoprosecutionundertherespectiveCopyrightLaw. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication,neithertheauthorsnortheeditorsnorthepublishercanacceptanylegalresponsibilityfor anyerrorsoromissionsthatmaybemade.Thepublishermakesnowarranty,expressorimplied,with respecttothematerialcontainedherein. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Foreword Alargepartofourdailylivesisgovernedbynumbers.Howmanyhoursofsleepdid Igetlastnight?Howmanyunreadmessagesarequeuedupinmyinbox?Howmany “friends”doIhaveonFacebook?What’stheupcomingPowerballpayoff?How’s mycholesterolcountdoing?CanIrecallmydaughter’sphonenumber,mygrand- daughter’s birthday? Numbers such as these encompass portions of our personal and shared social reality. They roll around in our head, and they are part of what determineourmood,ourbehavior,well-being,worries,andactivityconstraints. Populationprojectionsalsopresentuswithnumbers.Butthesearenumbersofa very different nature. Rather than simply reflecting a social reality (and associated beliefsandbehaviors),theyservetocreatearealitybasedonanticipation—areality unwitnessed,unobserved,andlargelyunknown.Yet,onthebasisofsuchnumbers, schoolsarebuilt(orclosed),roadsarewidened,airportterminalsexpanded,munic- ipal services extended, and marketing strategies altered. So this book is about the secondkindofnumber,thesortleadingtoanticipatorybehaviorsand,occasionally, preemptiveactions.Itistheapplieddemographer’sdifficultroletocreativelydeploy thedata,tools,andperspectivesofthepopulationsciencestocarryoutthesetasksnot onlyethicallyandtransparentlybutwithanexperiencedanddisciplinedhand.This bookprovidesamarvelouslyclear,well-organized,andcomprehensiveblueprintfor understandingandcompetentlyperformingthisrole. Theauthorsareseasonedapplieddemographicpractitioners.Theyhaveindivid- ually and collaboratively contributed mightily to the demographic literature. The book is intellectually solid, methodologically encompassing, and—while retaining thehistoricallyinterestingmaterial—firmlycontemporaryanduptodate. Early in my own career, one of my mentors rhetorically asked, “Why do we make population projections? They always turn out to be wrong, so why do we persist?” Aftera brief excursionthroughthe standardreasonsfor why projections are useful, he added, “Probably the most important reason for engaging in this enterpriseissothatwelaterknowwhattobesurprisedabout.”Wonderfullysaid! The point is that we live in a world of frenetic change. We are so habituated to mindlesslyaccommodatingtothischangethatwerarelypauselongenoughtosay “Wow!”andtoreflectonwhatwethought,justafewyearsback,ourpresentreality v vi Foreword might look like. Projections and forecasts prepared yesterday permit us to do that today.Today’sprojectionswillservethatpotentiallychasteningpurposetomorrow. The overall narrative and thoroughly developed methodologies in A Practi- tioner’s Guide to State and Local Population Projections will, of course, not eliminate all of tomorrow’s surprises. One can indeed hope, however, that practi- tionerswhowiselyselecttousethisbooktoguidetheirowndemographicpursuits will benefit from the authors’ skillful verve, their richly detailed methodological coverage, and the numerous concrete examples presented throughout the material tominimizethenumberandmagnitudeoffuturesurprises. Thisvaluablecompendiumpresentsmethodsthataretriedandtestedalongside those that are recent and innovative. The book revisits and updates most of the topicstreatedintheauthors’earlierbook,StateandLocalPopulationProjections: MethodologyandAnalysis.However,thecurrentbookshouldnotbeunderstoodas arevisededition.Freshattentionisgiventoemergingmethodologicalapproaches in small-area population forecasting (projecting) and, in particular, to new data resources that have fundamentally altered the information content of forecasting models. The material is treated with originality and conviction and benefits immensely from real-life illustrations drawn from the authors’ own work. With A Practitioner’s Guide to State and Local Population Projections, Smith, Tayman, and Swanson have again secured their leading place as careful, practical, and solidlycompetentapplieddemographicscholars. UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill PaulR.Voss June2013 Preface A lot has happened since we published State and Local Population Projections: MethodologyandAnalysisin2001.Smartphones,electronictablets,andtheCloud have given us access to virtually endless sources of information, no matter where we are. Improvements in technology, software, and computing hardware have expanded the way we access, store, and analyze information. Facebook, Twitter, andothersocialmediasiteshavechangedthewaywecommunicate.Globalization hasalteredtheworld’seconomicsystemand9/11changedalmosteverything,from internationalrelationstothewayweboardairplanes. Alothashappenedinthefieldofapplieddemographyaswell.Datasourceshave proliferated, methods have advanced, computing capabilities have mushroomed, andnewresearchhasbeenpublished.Onemajorchangeisthatthedecennialcensus no longer includes a long form collecting detailed socioeconomic, demographic, andhousinginformationfromasampleofcensusrespondents.Thisinformationis nowcollectedintheAmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS),whichdiffersinseveral ways from the census long form. Particularly important for the production of populationprojectionsisthattheACScollectsdatacontinuouslyratherthanonce per decade, is based on a smaller sample size, uses different residence rules, and measuresmigrationovera1-yearratherthana5-yearperiod. Theseandotherchangeshave convinced usthatanew bookonstate andlocal population projections is needed. This new book retains and updates much of the materialincludedinourpreviousbook,butcoversanumberofnewtopicsaswell. We present a detailed discussion of the differences between ACS migration data andthemigrationdatacollectedinthedecennialcensus,payingparticularattention to how these differences affect the construction of cohort-component projections. We provide an illustration of how to use ACS migration data to project a county population. We add a new chapter on projections of population-related variables suchashouseholds,schoolenrollment,laborforceparticipation,andpersonswith disabilities. We expand our discussion of microsimulation models, scenario anal- ysis, special populations, international migration, and the benefits of combining vii viii Preface projections from several different models. Throughout the book, we incorporate research findings that have appeared in the literature since the publication of our previousbook. As before, we pay particular attention to problems encountered when making projections for small areas (e.g., counties and subcounty areas). We describe a number of data sources and projection methods, focusing on those that are most accessibleandcanbeusedinavarietyofcircumstances.Wediscussthestrengthsand weaknessesofeachandprovideourthoughtsonwhicharemostusefulforparticular purposes. We include many examples and illustrations, as well as equations and verbaldescriptions,inanattempttopresentthematerialasclearlyaspossible. A number of methods, data sources, and application techniques can be used for constructingstateandlocalpopulationprojections.Decidingwhichonestoinclude— and how to present them—was not an easy task. We wanted the book to be comprehensivebutnotlong-winded,technicallyprecisebutnotoverlymathematical, clearlywrittenbutnotsimplistic.Wewantedittobeusefultoanalystswithastrong background in demography yet accessible to those with little or no demographic training. Most important, we wanted it to provide practical guidance to demogra- phers,planners,marketanalysts,andotherscalledupontoconstructorevaluatestate andlocalpopulationprojectionsinreal-worldsettings.Thereaderwillhavetodecide whetherwehavesucceededinaccomplishingtheseoften-conflictinggoals. We thank Paul Voss for writing the foreword to this book. It would be impos- sible tofindapersonmorequalified than Paul, givenhis numerous andimportant contributionstothefieldofapplieddemography.WealsothankEvelienBakkerand Bernadette Deelen-Mans for shepherding the book through Springer’s production process;theirassistancewasinvaluable. Aboveall,weexpressourgratitudetoourwives—Rita,Melinda,andRita—for theirlove,encouragement,andpatienceasweworkedonthisbook. Contents 1 Rationale,Terminology,Scope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 WhatIsaPopulationProjection?. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. 2 1.1.1 Projections,Forecasts,Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.1.2 AlternativeApproaches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1.2 WhyMakePopulationProjections?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.2.1 RolesofProjections.. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. 6 1.2.2 ProjectionsandDecisionMaking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.2.3 ForecastingandPlanning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.3 HowCanThisBookHelp?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.3.1 Objectives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.3.2 GeographicFocus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 1.3.3 Coverage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.3.4 TargetAudience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2 FundamentalsofPopulationAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.1 DemographicConcepts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.1.1 Size. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.1.2 Distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.1.3 Composition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.1.4 Change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.2 ComponentsofChange. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . 27 2.2.1 Mortality. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. 28 2.2.2 Fertility. . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. 28 2.2.3 Migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2.2.4 DemographicBalancingEquation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2.3 StatisticalMeasures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 ix
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