A PARADIGM FOR THE NEW WORLD ORDER This page intentionally left blank A Paradigm for the New World Order A Schools-of-Thought Analysis of American Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War Era John C. Hulsman First published in Great Britain 1997 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-40063-8 ISBN 978-0-230-37507-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230375079 First published in the United States of America 1997 by ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 978-0-312-1600-7 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Hulsman, John C., 1967- A paradigm for the new world order : a schools-of-thought analysis of American foreign policy in the post-cold war era I John C. Hulsman. p. em. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-312-1600-7 (cloth) I. United States-Foreign relations-1993- 2. Yugoslav War, 1991- -Bosnia and Hercegovina. 3. Yugoslav War, 1991- -Diplomatic history. I. Title. E885.H85 1997 327.73-dc20 96--35138 CIP © John C. Hulsman 1997 Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1st edition 1997 978-0-333-68388-0 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WlP 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 I 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 For my parents, who never gave up on my life, and to Ollie, who taught me how to live it This page intentionally left blank Contents List qf Charts lX Acknowledgements X List qf Abbreviations Xl 1 Theoretical Introduction 1 Derivation of Schools-of-thought Analysis 2 Definitional Approaches to Schools-of-thought Analysis 8 Methodological Approaches to Schools-of-thought Analysis 12 First Principles of Schools-of-thought Analysis 18 2 The Dernocratists 21 First Principles of Democratism 22 General Democratist Perceptions 24 Majority Democratist Policy Positions 28 Strains within Democratism 32 Criticisms of Democratism 33 3 The N eo-realists 38 First Principles of Neo-realism 39 General Neo-realist Perceptions 40 Majority Neo-realist Policy Positions 50 Strains within Neo-realism 55 Criticisms of Neo-realism 56 4 The Institutionalists 58 First Principles of Institutionalism 59 General Institutionalist Perceptions 61 Majority Institutionalist Policy Positions 71 Criticisms of Institutionalism 74 5 Schools-of-thought Orientations of Central Legislative and Executive Decision-makers 78 Specific Democratist Decision-makers 78 Specific Neo-realist Decision-makers 85 Specific Institutionalist Decision-makers 97 vii Vlll Contents 6 The Overall Schools-of-thought Orientation of the Clinton Adtninistration Regarding the Bosnian Crisis 114 General Administration Policy Regarding Russia 114 General Administration Policy Regarding Europe 11 7 General Administration Policy Regarding Bosnia 120 7 Political Analysis of the Anlerican Response to the Bosnian Crisis 135 The Schools-of-thought Stance of the Executive Branch during the 10 3rd Congress 144 The Schools-of-thought Stance of the Legislative Branch during the 10 3rd Congress 156 The Interaction of the Executive and Legislative Schools-of-thought Stances during the 10 3rd Congress 161 8 Schools-of-thought Analysis and the Cuhnination of the Bosnian Crisis 165 Events Leading to the Dayton Accord 165 The Dayton Accord 17 4 A Reassessment of Schools-of-thought Analysis 183 Notes 188 Select Bibliography 205 Index 209 List of Charts Chart 1.1 Schurmann's Currents of Cold War American Foreign Policy 4 Chart 1.2 Current American Foreign Policy Schools of Thought 15 Chart 2.1 The Belief System of the Democratists 21 Chart 3.1 The Belief System of the Neo-realists 38 Chart 4.1 The Belief System of the Institutionalists 58 Chart 5.1 Specific Democratist Policymakers Regarding Five Key Issues 110 Chart 5.2 Specific Neo-realist Policymakers Regarding Five Key Issues 111 Chart 5.3 Specific Institutionalist Policymakers Regarding Five Key Issues 112 Chart 6.1 Key Diplomatic Events Early in the Bosnian Crisis 121 Chart 7.1 A Flowchart of the Clinton Administration's Bureaucratic System Leading to Foreign Policy Outputs 154 Chart 8.1 The Culmination of the Bosnian Crisis 168 Chart 8.2 Results of the Schools-of-thought Boxing Process 187 ix