A Macroeconomic Analysis of Profit Based on the observation of economic reality, this book provides for the foundations of a new structure of national payment systems. Specifically, to this end, a rigorous accounting for money transactions, savings, and invested profit is suggested, with a major aim to settle sustainable lending levels. Profit lies at the heart of economic activities. Indeed, companies, from small to large, seek net gains to remunerate shareholders and to increase their assets. Yet, economists are far from sharing a common theory of profit. Using mathematical tools and a discursive approach, this book contributes to the debates in such regard, in the attempt to provide new answers to old economic issues. What is macroeconomic profit? Is there any relationship between wages, lending, and profit? This book is an accessible resource for economists and financial experts as well as global economics students, researchers, academics, and historians alike. It will challenge policy-makers and professionals and lead them on a thought-provoking journey through the realm of macroeconomics. Andrea Carrera is Professor of Economics at Schiller International University, Madrid campus, Spain. He has gained academic and business experience in both Europe and North America. He has lectured on and authored a number of scientific articles in economics, and he has worked for large and medium-sized companies. Andrea holds a PhD (Switzerland) and an MPhil (Spain) in economics. He loves 20th-century history, languages, food, and hiking with good friends. Routledge Frontiers of Political Economy Economics for an Information Age Money-Bargaining, Support-Bargaining and the Information Interface Patrick Spread The Pedagogy of Economic, Political and Social Crises Dynamics, Construals and Lessons Edited by Bob Jessop and Karim Knio Commodity The Global Commodity System in the 21st Century Photis Lysandrou Uncertainty and Economics A Paradigmatic Perspective Christian Müller-Kademann Discourse Analysis and Austerity Critical Studies from Economics and Linguistics Edited by Kate Power, Tanweer Ali and Eva Lebdušková The Dark Places of Business Enterprise Reinstating Social Costs in Institutional Economics Pietro Frigato and Francisco J. Santos Arteaga Economic Woman Gendering Economic Inequality in the Age of Capital Frances Raday A Macroeconomic Analysis of Profit Andrea Carrera For more information about this series, please visit: www.routledge.com/ books/series/SE0345 A Macroeconomic Analysis of Profit Andrea Carrera First published 2019 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2019 Andrea Carrera The right of Andrea Carrera to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Carrera, Andrea, 1986– author. Title: A macroeconomic analysis of profit/Andrea Carrera. Description: 1 Edition. | New York, NY : Routledge, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2018058380 (print) | LCCN 2018060582 (ebook) | ISBN 9781351213356 (eBook) | ISBN 9780815380351 (hardback : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781351213356 (ebk) Subjects: LCSH: Profit. | Wages. | Loans. | Banks and banking. Classification: LCC HB601 (ebook) | LCC HB601. C327 2019 (print) | DDC 338.5/16—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018058380 ISBN: 978-0-8153-8035-1 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-351-21335-6 (ebk) Typeset in Sabon by Apex CoVantage, LLC Contents List of figures vii List of tables viii Foreword ix ALVARO CENCINI AND SERGIO ROSSI Foreword and acknowledgments xv ANDREA CARRERA Introduction 1 1 Money, production, and profit 9 Bank money and the real economy 9 Banks since the industrial revolution 18 Interbank payments and the central bank 28 What room for profit? 37 2 Classical and neoclassical theories of profit 41 The old quest for the surplus 42 Profit at the outset of the neoclassical theory 50 Profit and contemporary neoclassical models 54 The neoclassical theory of distribution 60 3 Keynes and Keynesian theories of profit 64 At first, they were windfalls 65 The importance of profit expectations 70 ‘Orthodox’ versions of The General Theory 73 Post-Keynesian theories 76 4 New directions in the theory of profit 87 Wages and profit allocation 87 Wages and invested profit 93 vi Contents Value of total output 98 Profit and interest 101 Profit and capital growth 104 5 Profit, lending, and banking reforms 108 The bugbear of a new financial crisis 108 The fragility of regional regulations 111 Challenges to Basel III 119 A reform of the system of national payments 125 Conclusion 135 Bibliography 143 Name index 166 Subject index 171 Figures 1.1 Bank deposits 17 4.1 Deposits growth (per month, in dollars): an upward limit 107 Tables 1.1 The stylized balance sheet of commercial banks 11 1.2 Wage payment and consumption 13 1.3 Interbank payments in absence of the central bank 30 1.4 Interbank payments and the central bank 31 1.5 The stylized balance sheet of central banks 34 1.6 Payment instruments in the United States 37 4.1 Wages and profit 88 4.2 Profit and unsalable output 89 4.3 Dividends, taxes, and interests 89 4.4 A way to investment 90 4.5 Wages in a multi-company economy (in millions of dollars) 91 4.6 Wages, prices, and profit in a multi-company economy (in millions of dollars) 92 4.7 Investment or distribution (1) 94 4.8 Investment or distribution (2) 95 4.9 Investment and distribution (1) 98 4.10 Investment and distribution (2) 98 4.11 The infinite horizon 105 4.12 Deposits growth (per month, in dollars): an upward limit 106 5.1 Consumer lending and inflation 126 5.2 Income and consumption (1) 128 5.3 Income and consumption (2) 129 5.4 Dividends, taxes, and interests 130 5.5 Investment 133 5.6 Department balances 134 Foreword The existence of profits is a fact nobody can deny. Yet, economists’ search for a satisfactory theory of profits has been going on for a long time, and it is only recently that a full explanation of their formation and expenditure has been provided. The Classics, confronted with the law of exchange establish- ing the necessary equivalence between the terms of any relative exchange, could not explain the formation of positive profits in a way consistent with their labor theory of value. If the exchange value of goods is determined by the labor necessary for their production, and if the payment of wages cor- responds to the purchase of labor, no difference can ever occur between the amount firms pay to workers as wages and the amount firms earn through the sale of produced output. For the Classics, the law of exchange takes the form of the necessary equality between values and prices, and if the payment of labor is identified with the purchase of produced output by firms, it is immediately clear that firms cannot derive any positive profit from the sale of this same output to consumers. Purchased by firms at a price equal to its value expressed in labor terms, products can be sold to consumers only at the same price: profit is necessarily nil both for any single firm and for the set of firms. Marx’s attempt to avoid this result by introducing a distinction between labor and labor power fails, because profit (surplus value), formed as the difference between the value of labor’s output and the value of labor power, takes the form of a stock of goods that is doomed to remain unsold. The only income available in Marx’s system being equal to the value of labor power, namely to what we would call today the value of wage-goods, profit- goods, which are obtained at zero cost by firms thanks to surplus labor, are unsalable. The logical impossibility to explain the monetary realization of surplus value calls thus for the rejection of Marx’s ingenious attempt to explain profit as a surplus value and confirms the difficulty of reconciling the law of exchange with the existence of profit. The law of exchange is also at the center of Walras’s general equilibrium analysis, which is logically incompatible with the existence of firms’ profits.