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Unclassified SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHISPAGE FormApproved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No.0704-0188 1a. REPORTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION lb. RESTRICTIVEMARKINGS UNCLASSIFIED 2a. SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONAUTHORITY 3. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOFREPORT Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADINGSCHEDULE 2b. 4. PERFORMINGORGANIZATION REPORTNUMBER(S) 5. MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORTNUMBER(S) 6a. NAMEOFPERFORMINGORGANIZATION 6b.OFFICESYMBOL!7a. NAMEOFMONITORINGORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School OR 6c.ADDRESS (City, State,andZIPCode) 7b.ADDRESS (City,State,andZIPCode) Monterey, CA93943-5000 8a. NAMEOFFUNDING/SPONSORING 8b.OFFICESYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENTINSTRUMENTIDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZATION 8c.ADDRESS (City,State,andZIPCode) 10.SOURCEOF FUNDING NUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT TASK WORKUNIT ELEMENTNO. NO. NO. ACCESSION NO 11.TITLE (Including SecurityClassification) A Frameworkfor Incorporating Battlefield Purposeand Intelligence 12PERSONALAUTHOR(S) BONOMO, JamesAllan 13 TYPEOFREPORT 13b.TIMECOVERED 14. DATEOF REPORT(Year, Month, Day) 15. PageCount Master'sthesis FROM TO 1992, SEPTEMBER 89 16.SUPPLEMENTALNOTATION Theviews expressed inthisthesisarethose oftheauthorand do not reflectthe official policy or position ofthe Department of Defense orthe U.S. Government. 17. COSATI CODES 18.SUBJECTTERMS(Continueon reverseifnecessaryand identifybyblock j-iiber) FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP Wargame, Command and Control, Reconnaissance, Intelligence 19.ABSTRACT(Continueonreverseifnecessaryand identifybyblocknumber) Thisthesis involvesa methodologyforthe development ofstand-alone artificial intelligence programsfor inclusion in a yetto bedeveloped theatre level wargameforthe Conventional ForcesAnalysis Division (CFAD) ofthe Force Structure, Resources, and Assessment Directorate (J-8) of The Joint Staff. It uniquely addresses some of the limitations observed in the Tactical Warfare Model (TACWAR), extending the current research effort at the Naval PostgradauteSchool. Theartificial intelligence programswill simulatethedecision making processesthatatheatre level con.manderwould make according to his perception ofthe environment, aware that his intelligence may be incomplete and possibly incorrect. The decision process is based on military doctrine derived from Clausewitz, Jomini, and Napoleon, and involves allocating reconnaissance assets, acquiring and validating intelligence data, maneuveringforces, command and control, and assigning specific mission objectives. 20 DISTR13UTION/AVAILABILTIYOFABSTRACT la. REPORTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION IXl UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED SAMEASRPT.^ DTIC Unclassified 22i NAMEOFRESPONSIBLEINDIVIDUAL 22b.TELEPHONE (IncludeAreaCode) 22c. OFFICESYMBOL Samuel H. Parry (408)646-2779 OR/Py DD Form 1473, JUN 86 Previouseditionsareobsolete. SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHIS PAGE S/N 0102-LF-014-6603 Unclassified TPS7713 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Framework for Incorporating Battlefield Purpose and Intelligence by James A. Bonomo Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1985 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September_1992 ABSTRACT This thesis involves a methodology for the development of stand-alone artificial intelligence programs for inclusion in a yet to be developed theatre level wargame for the Conventional Forces Analysis Division (CFAD) of the Force Structure, Resources, and Assessment Directorate (J-8) of The Joint Staff. It uniquely addresses some of the limitations observed in the Tactical Warfare Model (TACWAR) extending the , current research effort at the Naval Postgraduate School. The artificial intelligence programs will simulate the decision making processes that a theatre level commander would make according to his perception of the environment, aware that his intelligence may be incomplete and possibly incorrect. The decision process is based on military doctrine derived from Clausewitz, Jomini, and Napoleon, and involves allocating reconnaissance assets, acquiring and validating intelligence data, maneuvering forces, command and control, and assigning specific mission objectives. 111 THESIS DISCLAIMER The reader is cautioned that computer programs developed in this research may not have been exercised for all cases of interest. While every effort has been made, within the time available, to ensure that the programs are free of computational and logic errors, they cannot be considered validated. Any application of these programs without additional verification is at the risk of the user. IV - TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. PURPOSE 1 B. METHODOLOGY 1 C. SCOPE OF THESIS 1 II. BACKGROUND 4 A. THE TACTICAL WARFARE (TACWAR) THEATRE-LEVEL MODEL 4 III. THE MODEL FRAMEWORK 10 A. INTRODUCTION 10 B. THE BATTLEFIELD 10 1. Representation of the Geography 10 2. Identification of Unit Types 13 3. The Missions 15 C. RECONNAISSANCE AND INTELLIGENCE 17 1. Reconnaissance, Detection, And Intelligence 17 2. Reconnaissance Assets 18 3. Reconnaissance Operating Areas 20 4. Scheduling Reconnaissance Assets 21 5. The Stochastic Process of Detection and ... Identification within Operating Areas 25 6. The Process of Intelligence Validation 26 . . .... D. THE THEATRE LEVEL COMMANDER'S DECISION 27 1. The Strategic Action Model 27 2. Procedure and the Mechanics of Military Engagements 33 E. COMMAND, CONTROL, AND COMMUNICATIONS 34 F. DETERMINATION OF ROUTE OF MARCH 36 1. The Route of March Module 36 2. Tactical Concerns 39 IV. METHODOLOGY DEMONSTRATION 4 A. THE SCENARIO 4 B. THE PROCEDURE 4 C. ANALYSIS 46 1. Program Run One 46 2. Program Run Two 49 3. Program Run Three 50 4. Program Run Four 51 V. SUMMARY 54 A. CONCLUSIONS 54 B. AREAS FOR FURTHER STUDY 56 APPENDIX A: ORIGINS OF PRESENT DAY US STRATEGY (1980- 2000) 58 A. WHAT IS STRATEGY? 58 VI