A First Course in Corporate Finance Preview,Monday9th October,2006 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006 A First Course in Corporate Finance ©2003–2006byIvoWelch. Allrightsreserved. CartoonsarecopyrightandcourtesyofMikeBaldwin. Seehttp://www.cornered.com/. ISBN:nonumberyet. LibraryofCongress: nonumberyet. BookWebsite: http://welch.econ.brown.edu/book/ TypesettingSystem: pdflatex. CoverFont Y&YLucidaCasual 13-38pt. MainBodyFont Y&YLucida 10pt. OtherFonts Y&YLucidavariations Seehttp://www.tug.org/yandy/ Most graphics were created in R, open-source and free: www.r-project.org. Fonts were embedded using AFPL ghostscriptandGlyphSoftware’sxpdf. ThereferencedspreadsheetsareExcel(Microsoft)andOpenOffice(free). Printed: Monday9thOctober,2006(frombookc.tex). Warning: This book is in development. It is not error-free. 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006 A First Course in Corporate Finance Preview,Monday9th October,2006 Ivo Welch ProfessorofFinanceandEconomics BrownUniversity 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006 Far and away, the most important contributor to this book was Mary-Clare McEwing. As editor, she helped me improvethesubstanceofthebooktremendously. There are also a large number of other individuals who have helped me with this book. Among them were Rick Antle,DonnaBattista,RandolphBeatty,WolfgangBühler,KangbinChua,DiegoGarcia,StanGarstka,RogerIbbotson, LudovicPhalippou,MatthewSpiegel,JohnStrong,JulieYufe,andmanyanonymous(victim)studentswhohadtouse earliererror-riddendrafts. Thereviewersofearlierdraftsofthebookspentanenormousamountoftimeandprovidedmewithmanygreat ideas. Iowethemmydeepgratitudefortheirengagement: TonyBernardo MarkKlock TimSullivan JamesGatti ThomasChemmanur AngelineLavin ChrisStivers SimonGervais BillChristie JosephMcCarthy MarkStohs TomGeurtz JenniferConrad JamesNelson JohnStrong RobertHansen JoshCoval MichaelPagano MichaelTroege MiltHarris AmyDittmar MitchPetersen JoelVanden RonaldHoffmeister RichardFendler SarahPeck JaimeZender KurtJesswin DiegoGarcia RobertRitchey Miranda(Mei)Zhang DarrenKisgen SharonGarrison BruceRubin A list ofarticlesupon which the ideasin the bookarebased, and a listofarticles thatdescribe currentongoing academicresearchwilleventuallyappearonthebook’swebsite. Warning: This book is in development. It is not error-free. Dedicatedtomyparents,ArthurandCharlotte. Lastfilechange:Jul19,2006(11:13h) 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006 A Quick Adoption Checklist For Instructors This is the recommended checklist for this book (AFCIc) while the book is in beta test mode. This checklist will not apply after AFCIc is published (with full supplementary materials) by Addison- Wesley-Pearson. ✓ Read this prologue and one or two sample chapters to determine whether you like the AFCIc approach. (Althoughnotrepresentative,Irecommendthatyoualsoreadtheepilogue.) IfyoudoliketheAFCIcapproach,thenpleasecontinue. IfyoudonotlikeAFCIc(orthechapters youread),[email protected]. IpromiseIwillnotshoot themessenger: Iwanttolearnhowtodoitbetter. ✓ Continuetoassignwhateverotherfinancetextbookyouwereplanningtouse,justaddAFCIc. Use itasasupplementarytext,orassignjustafewchapters. AlthoughAFCIcisafull-servicetextbookforanintroductoryfinancecourse,itshouldalsowork • wellasacomplementtoanexistingtextbook. Yourstudentsshouldrelativelyeasilybenefitfrom havingaccesstoboth,becausethisbookisbothdifferentfromandsimilartothecompetition. I believethatrelativetorelyingonlyonyouroldtextbook, AFCIcwillnot increase, butdecrease yourstudent’sconfusionandworkload. TakethelowriskrouteandseehowwellAFCIcworks! (TakethePepsichallenge!) Keepingyour • old textbook is also your insurance against using a novel textbook. And it will make students lesscriticaloftheremainingshortcomingsinAFCIc,suchasthelimitednumberofexercises(and theiroccasionallyerroneoussolutions). Perhapsmostimportantly,AFCIcdoesnotyet havefull supplementarymaterials. ItwillwhenAddison-Wesleywillpublishit,butuntilthen,theauxiliary materialsfromothertextbooksmayhelp. Fornow,studentscandownloadthebookchapters,sothereisnoprintingcostinvolved. Af- • fordabilityshouldnotbeaconcern. ItshouldbearelativelysimplemattertolinkAFCIcchaptersintoyourcurriculum,becausethe • chaptersarekeptrelativelystraightforwardandsuccinct. YoucannotgowrongifyoutryoutatleastafewchaptersofAFCIcinthismanner. ✓ YoucanreceivepermissiontoposttheelectronicAFCIconyourclasswebsite. (Thewebsitemust be secured to allow only university-internal distribution.) Students can carry the files on their notebookcomputerswiththem. ✓ Youcanaskyourcopycentertoprintandbindtheversiononyourwebsite. Youcanalsoobtain anicelyprintedandboundversionfor$40fromlulu.com. AlthoughversionsontheAFCIcwebsiteathttp://welch.econ.brown.edu/bookwillalwayshave • someimprovements,itisagoodideaforeachclasstoagreeononedefinitivereferenceversion. ✓ If you are using AFCIc and you are looking for lecture notes, feel free to “steal” and adapt my lecture notes (linked at http://welch.econ.brown.edu/book) to your liking. You can change and modifythelecturenotesanywayyoulike,withoutcopyrightrestrictions. ✓ Of course, I hope that the majority of your students (and you) will prefer reading AFCIc instead of your old textbook. At the end of the course, please ask your students which textbook they found more helpful. Please email your conclusions and impressions [email protected]. Any suggestionsforimprovementareofcoursealsoverywelcome. Anyfeedbackwouldbeappreciated, butitwouldbeparticularlyhelpfulformetolearninwhatrespectstheyprefertheirothertextbook. 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006 To The Instructor Thisbookis Most corporate finance textbooks cover a similar canon of concepts, and this textbook is no intentionallydifferent. exception. AquickglanceattheTableofContentswillshowyouthatmost—thoughnotall—of the topics in A First Course in Corporate Finance overlap with those in traditional finance textbooks. But this does not mean that this book is not different. Although I cover similar conceptualterritory,therearealsoimportantdepartures. InnovationsinApproach Here is my view of how this book differs from what is currently out there. I do not claim that other traditional textbooks do not teach any of what I will list, but I do maintain that my emphasisonthesepointsismuchstrongerthanwhatyouwillfindelsewhere. ConversationalTone. ConversationalTone: Thetoneismoreinformalandconversational,which(Ihope)makesthe subjectmoreaccessible. Themethodof Numerical-ExampleBased: Ilearnbestbynumericalexample,andfirmlybelievethatstudents instructionis do, too. Whenever I want to understand an idea, I try to construct numerical examples “step-by-step formyself(thesimpler,thebetter). Idonotparticularlycareforlongalgebraorcomplex numericalexamples.” formulas,precisethoughtheymaybe. Idonotmuchlikemanydiagramswithlongtextual descriptionsbutnospecificexamples,either—Ioftenfindthemtoovague,andIamnever sure whether I have really grasped the whole mechanism by which the concept works. Therefore, I wanted to write a textbook that relies on numerical examples as its primary tutorialmethod. This approach necessitates a rearrangement of the tutorial textbook progression. Most conventionalfinancetextbooksstartwithabird’seyeviewandthenworktheirwaydown. The fundamental difference of this book is that it starts with a worm’s eye view and worksitswayup. Theorganizationisbuiltaroundcriticalquestionlike“Whatwoulditbe worth?,”whichisthenansweredinnumericalstep-by-stepexamplesfromfirstprinciples. Right under numerical computations are the corresponding symbolic formulas. In my opinion, this structure clarifies the meaning of these formulas, and is better than either an exclusively textual or algebraic exposition. I believe that the immediate duality of numericswithformulaswillultimatelyhelpstudentsunderstandthematerialonahigher levelandwithmoreease. (Ofcourse,thisbookalsoprovidessomeoverviews,andordinary textbooksalsoprovidesomenumericalexamples.) Studentsshouldhave ProblemSolving: An important goal of this book is to teach students how to approach new amethodofthinking, problemsthattheyhavenotseenbefore. Ourgoalshouldbesendstudentsintothereal notjustformulas. worldwiththeanalyticaltoolsthatallowthemtodisectnewproblems,andnotjustwitha chestfullofformulas. Ibelievethatifstudentsadoptthenumericalexamplemethod—the “startsimpleandthengeneralize”method—theyshouldbeabletosolveallsortsofnew problems. It should allow them to figure out and perhaps even generalize the formulas thattheylearninthisbook. Similarly,ifstudentscanlearnhowtoverifyothers’complex new claims with simple examples first, it will often help them to determine whether the emperoriswearingclothes. Webuildafoundation Deeper,YetEasier: Ibelievethatformulaicmemorizationisultimatelynotconducivetolearn- first—soweare ing. In my opinion, such an alternative “canned formula” approach is akin to a house deeper! without a foundation. I believe that shoring up a poorly built house later is more costly thanbuildingitrighttobeginwith. Giving students the methods of how to think about problems and then showing them howtodeveloptheformulasthemselveswillmakefinanceseemeasierandsimplerinthe end, even if the coverage is conceptually deeper. In my case, when I haved learned new subjects,IhaveoftenfounditespeciallyfrustratingifIunderstandasubjectjustalittle but I also suspect that the pieces are really not all in place. A little knowledge can also be dangerous. If I do not understand where a formula comes from, how would I know 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006 whetherIcanorcannotuseitinanewsituation? AndIbelievethatevenaveragestudents canunderstandthebasicideasoffinanceandwheretheformulascomefrom. Brevity: Sometimes,lessismore. Brevityisimportant. Thebookfocusison This book is intentionally concise, even though it goes into more theoretical detail than explanations,not otherbooks! Institutionaldescriptionsareshort. Onlytheconceptsareexplainedingreat institutions. detail. Myviewisthatwhenstudentsareexposedtotoomuchmaterial,theywon’treadit,they won’t remember it, and they won’t know what is really important and what is not. Ten years after our students graduate, they should still solidly remember the fundamental ideasoffinance,beabletolookupthedetailswhentheyneedthem,andbeabletosolve new (financial) problems. Many institutional details will have changed, anyway—it is the ideas,concepts,andtoolsthatwilllastlonger. Self-ContainedforClarity: Financeisasubjectthateverystudentcancomprehend,regardless Self-containedmeans of background. It is no more difficult than economics or basic physics. But, it is often studentscan backtrack. a problem that many students come into class with a patchwork on knowledge. We, the instructors,thenoftenerroneouslybelievethestudentshaveallthebackgroundcovered. Alongtheway,suchstudentsgetlost. Itiseasytomistakesuchthemfor“poorstudents,” especiallyifthereisnoreferencesource,wheretheycanquicklyfillinthemissingparts. In this book, I try to make each topic’s development self-contained. This means that I try to explain everything from first principles, but in a way that every student can find interesting. For example, even though the necessary statistical background is integrated in the book for the statistics novice, the statistics-savvy student also should find value in reading it. This is because statistics is different in our finance context than when it is taughtforitsownsakeinastatisticscourse. CloserCorrespondencewiththeContemporaryCurriculum: Ibelievethatmostfinancecore LessChapter courses taught today follow a curriculum that is closer in spirit to this book—and more Reordering. logical—thanitistotheorderinolder,traditionalfinancetextbooks. Intheplaceswhere thisbookcoversnovelmaterial(seebelow),Ihopethatyouwillfindthatthenewmaterial hasmerit—andifyouagree,thatcoveringitismucheasierwiththisbookthanwithearlier books. InnovationsinParticularTopics Thebookalsooffersanumberoftopicalandexpositionalinnovations. Hereisaselection: ProgressiontoRiskandUncertainty: Thebookstartswithaperfectrisk-freeworld,thenadds First,norisk;then horizon-dependentinterestrates,uncertaintyunderriskneutrality,imperfectmarketfric- risk-neutralattitudes torisk;then tions(e.g.,taxes),uncertaintyunderrisk-aversion,andfinallyuncertaintyunderriskaver- risk-averseattitudesto sionandwithtaxes(e.g.,WACCandAPV). Frictions(Ch6): risk. OftenMeaningless. PV0 = VariousModifications. (cid:0)(cid:18) @ (cid:0) @R PerfectWorld(Ch2): Uncertainty(Ch5): CorporateTaxes(Ch18): PV0 = 1CF1r +(1CFr2)2 +··· PV0 = 1E(CF(1r˜)1)+1E(C(Fr˜20),2)+··· - PV0 = 1 (r˜1,EQE)(C(F11,FMτ)) (r˜1,DT)+··· + + +E +E +E + − ·E @ (cid:0)(cid:18) @ (cid:0)(cid:18) @ (cid:0) @ (cid:0) @R (cid:0) @R (cid:0) Horizon-DependentRates(Ch4): Risk-Aversion(PartIII): PV0 = 1+CFr10,1 +1+CFr20,2 +··· PV0 = 1+r1,F+[EE(r˜(1C,MF1))−r1,F]·βi,M+··· Each step builds on concepts learned earlier. I believe it is an advantage to begin simply andthengraduallyaddcomplexity. Theuniquerolesofthemoredifficultconceptsofrisk 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006 measurement, risk-aversion, and risk-aversion compensation then become much clearer. (Thereare someforward hintsin thetext thatdescribe howthemodel willchange when theworldbecomesmorecomplex.) Drivehome“default AStrongDistinctionbetweenExpectedandPromisedCashFlows: Ihavealwaysbeenshocked risk.” byhowmanygraduatingstudentsthinkthataBostonCelticsbondquotes400basispoints in interest above a comparable Treasury bond because of the risk-premium, which they cancalculateusingtheCAPMformula. Learningtoavoidthisfundamentalerrorismore importantthanfancytheories: themainreasonwhytheBostonCelticsbondpromises400 extrabasispointsis,ofcourse,primarilyitsdefaultrisk(compensationfornon-payment), not a risk-premium (compensation for risk-averse investors that comes from the corre- lation with the market rate of return). And for bonds, simple ICAPM-like equilibrium modelssuggestthatthelattershouldbeanorderofmagnitudesmallerthantheformer. The CAPM itself can definitely not be used to claim a 400 basis point risk premmium. Although many instructors mention this difference at some point, 5 minutes of default riskdiscussionisoftenlostin5hoursworthofCAPMdiscussion. Butifstudentsdonot understandthebasicdistinction,the5hoursofCAPMdiscussionarenotjustwastedbut haveonlymademattersworse. Traditionaltextbookshavenothelped,becausetheyhavenotsufficientlyemphasizedthe distinction. In contrast, in this book, default risk is clearly broken out. The difference betweenquoted(promised)andexpectedreturns,andquoteddefaultcompensationand riskcompensationareimportantthemescarriedthroughout. Understand FinancialsfromaFinancePerspective: Finance students need to solidly understand the re- accountingwithout lationship between financial statements and NPV. Although it is not bad if they also beinganaccounting understand all the accounting nooks and crannies, it is more important that they under- textbook. stand the basic logic and relationship between finance and accounting. It is essential if they want to construct pro formas. Yet, when I was writing this book, I could not find good, concise, and self-contained explanations of the important aspects and logic of ac- counting statements from a finance perspective. Consequently, this book offers such a chapter. It does not just show students some financial statements and names the finan- cialitems;instead,itmakesstudentsunderstandhowtheNPVcashflowsareembedded intheaccountingstatements. Afundamentalunderstandingoffinancialsisalsonecessarytounderstandcomparables: for example, students must know that capital expenditures must be subtracted out if depreciation is not. (Indeed, the common use of EBITDA without a capital expenditures adjustment is often wrong. If we do not subtract out the pro-rated expense cost, we should subtract out the full expenses. Factories and the cash flows they produce do not fallfromheaven.) ProFormas: In any formal financial setting, professionals propose new projects—whether it istheexpansionofafactorybuildingwithinacorporation,oranewbusinessforpresen- tation to venture capitalists—through pro formas. A good pro forma is a combination of financial expertise, business expertise, and intuition. Both art and science go into its construction. The book’s final chapter, the capstone towards which the book works, is the creation of such a pro forma. It combines all the ingredients from earlier chapters— capitalbudgeting,taxes,thecostofcapital,capitalstructure,andsoon. Robustness: The book discusses the robustness of methods—the relative importance of er- rorsandmistakes—andwhatfirst-orderproblemsstudentsshouldworryaboutandwhat second-orderproblemstheycanreasonablyneglect. ANewerPerspectiveonCapitalStructure: Theacademicperspectiveaboutcapitalstructure hasrecentlychanged. A$1millionhousethatwasoriginallyfinancedbya50%mortgage andthendoublesinvaluenowhasonlya25%debtratio. Inanalogousfashion,Chapter20 shows how stock price movements have drastically changed the debt ratio of IBM from 2001 to 2003. Students can immediately eyeball the relative importance of market influ- ences, issuing and other financial activities. The corporate market value changes are an important and robust factor determining capital structure—at least equal in magnitude tofactorssuggestedinacademictheoriesinvolvingthepeckingorderortrade-offs. More- over,wenowknowthatmostnewequitysharesappearinthecontextofM&Aactivityand 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006 as executive compensation, not in the context of public equity offerings. Part IV of our bookexplainswhattheknownfirst-orderdeterminantsofcapitalstructureare,whatthe (important)second-orderdeterminantsare,andwhatthefactorsstillunderinvestigation are. ManyOtherTopicalImprovements: Forexample,theyieldcurvegetsitsown(optional)chap- ...andmanymore. terevenbeforeuncertaintyisdescribedinmuchdetail,sothatstudentsunderstandthat projectsoverdifferenttimehorizonscanofferdifferentratesofreturnevenintheabsence of risk. There is a self-contained chapter on comparables as a valuation technique—a technique that many of our students will regularly have to use after they graduate. The corporategovernancechapterhasaperspectivethatisdarkerthanitisinothertextbooks. WACC,APV,anddirectproformaconstructionallincorporatethetaxadvantageofdebt into valuation. This is bread-and-butter for CFOs. This book offers a clear explanation of how these methods usually come to similar results (and when not!). Throughout the book, I try to be open and honest about where our knowledge is solid and where it is shaky—andhowsensitiveourestimatesaretotheerrorsweinevitablycommit. Althoughmostofourcurriculumsaresimilarintheircoverageofthebasics,timeconstraints Webchapterswillallow usually force us to exclude some topics. Your preferences as to what to cut may differ from a-la-cartechoice. mine. For example, I find the financials part very important, because this is what most of our graduates will do when they become analysts, brokers, or consultants. However, you may instead prefer to talk more about international finance. It is of course impossible to satisfy everyone—andinstructorshavealwayschosentheirownfavorites,addinganddeletingtopics astheyseefit. Thisbooktriestoaccommodatesomechoice. SomechaptersareavailableontheWebsite(“Web Chapters”) accompanying this book. Chapter style and formatting are unmistakably identical to the book itself. Every instructor can therefore choose his/her own favorite selection and ask students to download it. These chapters are free and access is easy. The menu right now containsthefollowingchapters: RealOptions: RealoptionsarebrieflycoveredinChapter7inthetext,butnotingreatdetail. Thiswebchaptershowshowtousespreadsheets,time-seriesanalysis,MonteCarlosimu- lation,andoptimizationtodeterminethevalueofaplantthatcanshutdownandreopen (foracost)asoutputpricesfluctuate. OptionandDerivativePricing: This is a difficult subject to cover in an introductory course, because it really requires a minimum of 4-6 class sessions to do it well. This chapter tries to help you cover the basics in 2 class sessions. It explains option contracts, static arbitrage relations (including put-call parity), dynamic arbitrage and the Black-Scholes formula,andbinomialtrees. InternationalFinance: Thischapterexplainstheroleofcurrencytranslationsandinternational marketsegmentationforbothinvestmentsandcorporatebudgetingpurposes. Ethics: This chapter is experimental—and provocative. There is neither a particular set of must-covertopicsnoratemplateonhowtopresentthismaterial. Yourchoicesandviews may differ from mine. However, I believe that ethical considerations are too important forthemnevertoberaised. CapitalStructureEventStudies: Thischapterdescribestheevidence(up-to-2003!) ofhowthe stock market reacts to the announcements of new debt offerings, new equity offerings, anddividendpayments. The title of the book is optimistic. A one-quarter course cannot cover the vast field that our profession has created over the last few decades. The book requires at least a one semester course, or, better yet, a full two-quarter sequence in finance—although I would recommend that the latter type of course sequence use the “general survey” version of this book, which goesintomoredetailintheinvestmentspart. I hope that this book will become your first choice in finance textbooks. If you do not like it, please drop me an email to let me know where it falls short. I would love to learn from you. (AndevenifIdisagree,chancesarethatyourcommentswillinfluencemynextrevision.) 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006 SIDE NOTE Ifyouusethisbookorsomechapterstherefrom,pleasepermitmetouseandpostyour homeworkandexam questionswithanswers. (Ofcourse,thisisnotarequirement,onlyapleaforhelp.) MyintentisfortheWebsite to become collaborative: you will be able to see what other faculty do, and they can see what you do. The copyrightwillofcourseremainwithyou. To The Student Prerequisites Thisbookandthe What do you need to understand this book? You do not need any specific background in subjectitselfare finance. Youdoneedtobethoroughlycomfortablewitharithmeticandgenerallycomfortable tough,buttheyarenot withalgebra. Youdoneedmathematicalaptitude,butnoknowledgeofadvancedmathematical forbidding,eventoan averagestudent. The constructs, such as calculus. Knowledge of statistics would be very helpful, but the book will mainprerequisiteis explaintherelevantconceptswhentheneedarises. Youshouldowna$20scientificcalculator. mathematicalaptitude, butnotmathematical A financial calculator is not necessary and barely useful. Instead, you should learn how to sophistication. operateaspreadsheet(suchasExcelinMicrosoft’sOfficeorthefreeOpenCalcspreadsheetin OpenOffice). Thefinancialworldismovingrapidlyawayfromfinancialcalculatorsandtoward computer spreadsheets—it is easier to work with information on a large screen with a 2,000 MHzprocessorthanonasmall2-linedisplaywitha2MHzprocessor. BecauseIhavetriedhard tokeepthebookself-containedandtoexplaineverythingfromfirstprinciples,youshouldnot need togohuntingfordetailsinstatistics,economics,oraccountingtextbooks. Butthisisnot to say that you do not need to take courses in these disciplines: they have way more to offer thanjustbackgroundknowledgeforafinancetextbook. Jargoncantripupthe One word of caution: the biggest problem for a novice of any field, but especially of finance, reader. is jargon: the specialized terminology known only to the initiated. Worse, in finance, much jargon is ambiguous. Different people may use different terms for the same thing, and the same term may mean different things to different people. You have been warned! This book attemptstopointoutsuchambiguoususage. Luckily,thebarkofjargonisusuallyworsethan itsbite. Itisonlyatemporarybarriertoentryintothefieldoffinance. HowtoReadTheBook Thisbookisconcise, Thistextbooktriestobeconcise. Itwantstocommunicatetheessentialmaterialinastraight- focusingonthe forward(andthuscompact),butalsoconversational(andthusmoreinteractive)andaccessible essenceofarguments. fashion. There are already many finance textbooks with over a thousand pages. Much of the content of these textbooks is interesting and useful but not essential to an understanding of finance. (Ipersonallyfindsomeofthisextracontentdistracting.) Thelayoutofthebook. The book is organized into four parts: the basics consist of return computations and capital budgeting. Nextarecorporatefinancials,theninvestments(assetpricing),andfinancing(capital structure). Majorsectionswithinchaptersendwithquestionsthataskyoutoreviewthepoints justmadewithexamplesorquestionssimilartothosejustcovered. You should not proceed beyond a section without completing these questions (and in “closed book” format)! Many, but not all, questions are easy and/or straightforward replications of problems that you will have just encountered in the chapter. Others are more challenging. Each chapter ends with answers to these review questions. Do not move on until you have mastered these review questions. (Thepublishedversionofthisbookwillcontainmanymorestudentquestions,and therewillbeaseparatestudenttestbank.) 116175494417370260 Wed Oct 25 01:46:38 2006