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1 A Factor Graph Approach to Clock Offset Estimation in Wireless Sensor Networks Aitzaz Ahmad, Davide Zennaro, Erchin Serpedin, and Lorenzo Vangelista Abstract—The problem of clock offset estimation in a two for timing synchronization is presented in [2] and [3]. The way timing message exchange regime is considered when the one-way message exchange mechanism involves a reference likelihood function of the observation time stamps is Gaussian, node broadcasting its timing information to other nodes in exponentialorlog-normallydistributed.Aparametrizedsolution a network. The receiver nodes record the arrival of these tothemaximumlikelihood(ML)estimationofclockoffset,based 2 on convex optimization, is presented, which differs from the messages with respect to their own clock. After several such 1 earlier approaches where the likelihood function is maximized time stamps have been exchanged, the nodes estimate their 0 graphically. In order to capture the imperfections in node offsets based on these observations. A particular case of this 2 oscillators,whichmayrenderatime-varyingnaturetotheclock approachisthefloodingtimesynchronizationprotocol(FTSP) offset,anovelBayesianapproachtotheclockoffsetestimationis n [4] which uses regression to estimate the clock offset. On proposedbyusingafactorgraphrepresentationoftheposterior a density.Messagepassingusingthemax-productalgorithmyields the other hand, through a two-way timing exchange process, J a closed form expression for the Bayesian inference problem. adjacent nodes aim to achieve pairwise synchronization by 1 Several lower bounds on the variance of an estimator are communicatingtheirtiminginformationwitheachother.After 3 derived for arbitrary exponential family distributed likelihood a round of N messages, each nodes tries to estimate its functions which, while serving as stepping stones to benchmark ] the performance of the proposed clock offset estimators, can be own clock parameters. The timing-sync protocol for sensor T useful in their own right in classical as well Bayesian param- networks (TPSNs) [5] uses this strategy in two phases to I eter estimation theory. To corroborate the theoretical findings, synchronize clocks in a network. The level discovery phase . s extensive simulation results are discussed for classical as well involves a spanning tree based representation of a WSN c as Bayesian estimators in various scenarios. It is observed that [ while nodes attempt to synchronize with their immediate the performance of the proposed estimators is fairly close to the 1 fundamental limits established by the lower bounds. parents using a two-way message exchange process in the synchronization phase. In receiver-receiver synchronization, v Index Terms—Clock synchronization, factor graphs, message 5 nodes collect time stamps sent from a common broadcasting passing, estimation bounds, wireless sensor networks. 8 node and utilize them to adjust their clocks. The reference 6 broadcast synchronization (RBS) protocol [6] uses reference 6 I. INTRODUCTION beacons sent from a master node to establish a common . 1 WIRELESS sensor networks (WSNs) typically consist notion of time across a network. An alternative framework 0 of a large number of geographically distributed sensor for network-wide distributed clock synchronization consists 2 nodes,deployedtoobservesomephenomenonofinterest.The of recasting the problem of agreement on oscillation phases 1 : nodes constituting such a network are low cost sensors that and/or frequencies as a consensus based recursive model in v have limited abilities of data processing and communication. which only local message passing is required among nodes. i X WSNs envisage tremendous applications in such diverse areas By assuming a connected network, it is possible to design ef- r as industrial process control, battlefield surveillance, health ficient distributedalgorithms bycarefully choosing theupdate a monitoring, target localization and tracking, etc., [1]. With function. Under this framework, [9] proposed a Laplacian- the recent advances in digital circuit technology, WSNs are based algorithm for establishing agreement on oscillation expected to play a pivotal role in future wireless communica- frequenciesalloverthenetworkbasedonstandardconsensus. tions. Acombinedagreementoverbothclockphasesandfrequencies Clock synchronization in sensor networks is a critical hasbeenstudiedin[10],bymakinguseofstate-of-the-artfast component in data fusion and duty cycling operations, and consensustechniques.Scalablesynchronizationalgorithmsfor has gained widespread interest in the past few years. Most large sensor networks are developed in [11] and [12] inspired of the current methods consider sensor networks exchanging by mathematical biology models justifying synchrony in the time stamps based on the time at their respective clocks. biological agents. A survey of the popular approaches employed in practice The clock synchronization problem in a WSN offers a natural statistical signal processing framework whereby, the A. Ahmad and E. Serpedin are with the Department of Electrical and clockparametersaretobeestimatedusingtiminginformation ComputerEngineering,TexasA&MUniversity,Texas,TX,77843USA. from various sensors [22]. A model based synchronization D. Zennaro and L. Vangelista are with Department of Information Engi- neering,UniversityofPadova,Padova,Italy. approach to arrest the clock drifts is explored in [8]. The A.AhmadandE.SerpedinaresupportedbyQtel. impairments in message transmission arise from the various TheworkofD.Zennaroispartiallysupportedbyan“A.Gini”fellowship delays experienced by the messages as they travel through and has been performed while on leave at Texas A&M University, College Station,TX(USA). the transmission medium. Therefore, a crucial component of 2 efficient clock parameter estimation is accurate modeling of Gauss-Markovprocess.Bayesianinferenceisperformed thenetworkdelaydistributions.Severaldistributionshavebeen using factor graphs and the max-product algorithm. The proposed that aim to capture the random queuing delays in message passing strategy yields a closed form solution a network [7]. Some of these candidate distributions include for Gaussian, exponential and log-normally distributed exponential, Weibull, Gamma and log-normal distributions. likelihood functions. This extends the current literature Assuminganexponentialdelaydistribution,severalestimators tocaseswheretheclockoffsetmaynotbedeterministic, wereproposedin[13].Itwasarguedthatwhenthepropagation but is in fact a random process. delay d is unknown, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator 3) In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed for the clock offset θ is not unique. However, it was later estimators, classical as well as Bayesian bounds are shown in [14] that the ML estimator of θ does exist uniquely derived for arbitrary exponential family distributed like- for the case of unknown d. The performance of these estima- lihood functions, which is a wide class and contains torswascomparedwithbenchmarkestimationboundsin[15]. almost all distributions of interest. While these results Considering an offset and skew model, Chaudhari et.al. pre- aid in comparing various estimators in this work, they sented algorithms for the joint ML estimation of clock offset canbeusefulintheirownrightinclassicalandBayesian and skew in [16] when the network delays are exponentially estimation theory. distributed.Clockoffsetandskewestimatorsweredetermined This paper is organized as follows. The system model is in [17] based on the assumption that the network delays outlined in Section II. The ML estimation of clock offset arise from the contribution of several independent processes based on convex optimization is proposed in Section III. The and as such, were modeled as Gaussian. The convergence factorgraphbasedinferencealgorithmforthesynchronization of distributed consensus time synchronization algorithms is problem in a Bayesian paradigm is detailed in Section IV and investigated in [18] and [19], assuming a Gaussian delay a closed form solution is obtained. Section V presents several between sensor nodes. More recently, the minimum variance theoretical lower bounds on the variance of an estimator eval- unbiased estimator (MVUE) for the clock offset under an uated in the classical as well as Bayesian regime. Simulation exponential delay model was proposed in [20]. The timing studies are discussed in Section VI which corroborate the synchronization problem for the offset-only case was also earlier results. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section VII recastasaninstanceofconvexoptimizationin[21]forWeibull along with some directions for future research. distributed network delays. A recent contribution [23] has investigatedthefeasibilityofdeterminingtheclockparameters by studying the fundamental limits on clock synchronization II. SYSTEMMODEL for wireline and wireless networks. Theprocessofpairwisesynchronizationbetweentwonodes In this work, considering the classic two-way message S and R is illustrated in Fig. 1. At the jth message exchange, exchangemechanism,aunifiedframeworkfortheclockoffset node S sends the information about its current time through estimation problem is presented when the likelihood function a message including time stamp T1. Upon receipt of this of the observations is Gaussian, exponential or log-normally j message, Node R records the reception time T2 according to distributed. A parameterized solution is proposed for the j itsowntimescale.Thetwo-waytimingmessageexchangepro- ML estimation of clock offset by recasting the likelihood cessiscompletedwhennodeRreplieswithasynchronization maximization as an instance of convex optimization. In order packet containing time stamps T2 and T3 which is received to incorporate the effect of time variations in the clock j j at time T4 by node S with respect to its own clock. After N offset between sensor nodes, a Bayesian inference approach j such messages have been exchanged between nodes S and R, is also studied based on a factor graph representation of the node S is equipped with time stamps T1,T2,T3,T4 N . posterior density. The major contributions of this work can be { j j j j}j=1 The impairments in the signaling mechanism occur due to a summarized as follows. fixed propagation delay, which accounts for the time required 1) A unified framework for ML estimation of clock offset, by the message to travel through the transmission medium, based on convex optimization, is presented when the and a variable network delay, that arises due to queuing likelihood function of the observations is Gaussian, delay experienced by the messages during transmission and exponential and log-normally distributed. The proposed reception. By assuming that the respective clocks of nodes S frameworkrecoversthealreadyknownresultsforGaus- and R are related by CR(t)=θ+CS(t), the two-way timing sian and exponentially distributed likelihood functions message exchange model at the jth instant can be represented and determines the ML estimate in case of log-normal as distribution. Hence, the proposed convex optimization based approach represents a simpler alternative, and a Tj2 =Tj1+d+θ+Xj more general derivation of ML estimator, which by- T4 =T3+d θ+Y (1) j j − j passes the graphical analysis used in [14] to maximize the likelihood function. where d represents the propagation delay, assumed symmetric 2) In order to capture the time variations in clock offsets in both directions, and θ is offset of the clock at node R due to imperfect oscillators, a Bayesian framework is relative to the clock at node S. X and Y are the indepen- j j presented by considering the clock offset as a random dent and identically distributed variable network delays. By 3 T2 T3 V =∆ [V1,...,VN]T is Gaussian or log-normally distributed R j j is given below. Unconstrained Likelihood:   N (cid:88) f(U;ξ) expξ ηξ(Uj) Nφξ(ξ) (5) ∝ − j=1 S Tj1 Tj4  (cid:88)N  f(V;ψ) expψ ηψ(Vj) Nφψ(ψ) (6) d+θ+X d θ+Y ∝ − j j − j=1 whereη (U )andη (V )aresufficientstatisticsforestimating ξ j ψ j Fig.1. Atwo-waytimingmessageexchangemechanism ξ and ψ, respectively. The log-partition functions φ (.) and ξ φ (.) serve as normalization factors so that f(U;ξ) and ψ f(V;ψ) are valid probability distributions. The likelihood defining [13] function is called ‘unconstrained’ since its domain is inde- pendent of the parameters ξ and ψ. Uj =∆ Tj2−Tj1 Similarly, the general notation used for an exponentially V =∆ T4 T3 , distributed likelihood function is given below. j j − j the system in (1) can be equivalently expressed as Constrained Likelihood:   N N U =d+θ+X (cid:88) (cid:89) j j f(U;ξ) expξ ηξ(Uj) Nφξ(ξ) I(Uj ξ) V =d θ+Y . (2) ∝ − − j − j j=1 j=1 (7) By further defining   N N ξ =∆ d+θ ψ =∆ d−θ , (3) f(V;ψ)∝expψ(cid:88)ηψ(Vj)−Nφψ(ψ)(cid:89)I(Vj −ψ) j=1 j=1 the model in (2) can be written as (8) Uj =ξ+Xj where the indicator function I(.) is defined as V =ψ+Y (cid:26) j j 1 x 0 I(x)= ≥ . 0 x<0 for j = 1,...,N. The goal is to determine precise estimates of ξ and ψ using observations {Uj,Vj}Nj=1. An estimate of θ andtherolesofηξ(Uj),ηψ(Vj),φξ(.)andφψ(.)aresimilarto can, in turn, be obtained using (3) as follows (5)and(6).Thelikelihoodfunctioniscalledconstrainedsince itsdomaindependsontheparametersξandψ.Itmustbenoted ξ ψ θ = − . (4) that the likelihood functions (5)-(8) are expressed in terms of 2 general exponential family distributions. This approach helps Accurate modeling of the variable delays, X and Y , has j j to keep the exposition sufficiently general and also allows us been a topic of interest in recent years. Several distributions to recover the known results for the ML estimation of clock have been proposed that aim to capture the random effects offset for Gaussian and exponentially distributed likelihood caused by the queuing delays [7]. These distributions include functions [14] [15], and determine the ML estimator of the exponential, gamma, log-normal and Weibull. In addition, the clock offset in case of log-normally distributed likelihood authorsin[17]arguedthatX andY resultfromcontributions j j function, as shown in Section III. The proposed approach will ofnumerousindependentrandomprocessesandcan,therefore, alsoproveusefulininvestigatingaunifiednovelframeworkfor be assumed to be Gaussian. The ML estimate of d and θ for clock offset estimation in the Bayesian setting for Gaussian, the case of exponential distribution was determined in [14]. exponential or log-normally distributed likelihood functions, Recently, the minimum variance unbiased estimate (MVUE) as will be shown in Section IV. of the clock offset under an exponentially distributed network Some key ingredients of the proposed solution for the delay was proposed in [20]. In this work, instead of working clock offset estimation problem, based on the properties of with a specific distribution, a general framework of the clock exponential family, can be summarized as follows [25]. synchronization problem is proposed that yields a parameter- 1) The mean and variance of the sufficient statistic η (U ) ξ j ized solution of the clock offset estimation problem in the are expressed as classicalaswellBayesianregimewhenthelikelihoodfunction ∂φ (ξ) of the observations, Uj and Vj, is Gaussian, exponential or E[ηξ(Uj)]= ξ (9) log-normally distributed. ∂ξ In particular, the general notation used when the likelihood σ2 =∆ Var[η (U )]= ∂2φξ(ξ) . (10) function of the observations U =∆ [U ,...,U ]T and ηξ ξ j ∂ξ2 1 N 4 2) The moment generating function (MGF) of the statistic η (U ) is given by Theorem 1: The likelihood maximization problems (15) ξ j and (16) are strictly concave and the ML estimates are given M (h)=exp(φ (ξ+h) φ (ξ)) . (11) ηξ ξ − ξ by 3) Tthhaet tnhoenl-onge-gpaatirvtiittiyonoffutnhcetivoanriφanξc(.e)σisη2ξcoinnv(e1x0.) implies ξˆML = (cid:80)Nj=N1ση2ξ(Uj) (17a) 4) For Gaussian, exponential and log-normally distributed ηξ likelihoodfunctions,thelog-partitionfunctionφξ(ξ)can (cid:80)N η (V ) be expressed as a second degree polynomial given by ψˆ = j=1 ψ j . (17b) ML Nσ2 φ (ξ)=a ξ2 . (12) ηψ ξ ξ Hence, the ML estimator θˆ for the clock offset can be Thecoefficienta inthisapproximationcanbeobtained ML ξ written as using the variance of the statistic η (U ), which is ξ j ξˆ ψˆ assumed known. Using (10), aξ is given by θˆML = ML− ML . (18) 2 σ2 a = ηξ . Proof: The ML estimate of ξ in (15) can be equivalently ξ 2 determined by maximizing the exponent in the likelihood If the statistical moment in (10) is not available, the function. It can be easily verified that the exponent in (15), empirical moment can be substituted since it readily which is a quadratic function of ξ, is strictly concave [29]. follows from the weak law of large numbers that A similar explanation applies to the ML estimate of ψ. The (cid:80)N η (U ) ML estimates in (17) can be obtained by setting the first j=1 ξ j p E[ηξ(U)], N derivative of the exponent with respect to ξ (resp. ψ) to zero. N → →∞ (cid:80)N η2(U ) The estimate θˆML in (18) can be obtained by invoking the j=1 ξ j p E(cid:2)η2(U)(cid:3), N . invariance principle [28]. Hence, the proof readily follows. N → ξ →∞ 1) Gaussian Distributed Likelihood Function: A particular Similar expressions can also be written for ηψ(Vj), Mηψ(h) application of Theorem 1 is the case when the likelihood and φψ(ψ), respectively. Using the aforementioned properties functions f(Uj;ξ) and f(Vj;ψ) have a Gaussian distribution of the exponential family, the ML as well as Bayesian esti- i.e., f(U ;ξ) (ξ,σ2) and f(V ;ψ) (ψ,σ2) [15]. mates of ξ and ψ are to be determined utilizing the data set Hence, itjfollo∼wsNthat ξ j ∼ N ψ U ,V N , based on (12). { j j}j=1 f(U;ξ)= 1 exp(cid:32) (cid:80)Nj=1(Uj −ξ)2(cid:33) (19) III. MAXIMUMLIKELIHOODESTIMATION (2πσξ2)N2 − 2σξ2 In this section, the ML estimates of θ are obtained by which can be rearranged as recastingthelikelihoodmaximizationasaninstanceofconvex ompetnimtsizuasteiodnt.oTmhiasxaimppizroeatchhedliifkfeelrishoforodminth[e14g]r.aTphhiecaslpeacrgifiuc- f(U;ξ) exp(cid:32)ξ(cid:80)Nj=1Uj N ξ2(cid:33) . ∝ σ2 − 2σ2 cases of unconstrained and constrained likelihood functions ξ ξ are considered separately. By comparing with (13), we have A. Unconstrained Likelihood η (U )= Uj, σ2 = 1 (20) ξ j σ2 ηξ σ2 Using (5), (6) and (12), the unconstrained likelihood func- ξ ξ tions are given by and the ML estimate using (17a) is given by   f(U;ξ)∝expξ(cid:88)N ηξ(Uj)−Nσ2η2ξξ2 (13) ξˆML = (cid:80)Nj=1Uj . (21) N j=1   f(V;ψ) expψ(cid:88)N ηψ(Vj) Nση2ψψ2 . (14) Bbyy a similar reasoning, the ML estimate for ψ (17b) is given ∝ − 2 j=1 (cid:80)N V ψˆ = j=1 j . The ML estimates of ξ and ψ can now be expressed as ML N   ξˆML =arg maxexpξ(cid:88)N ηξ(Uj) Nση2ξξ2 (15) Uassing (18), the ML estimate for the offset θ can be expressed ξ  j=1 − 2  θˆML = (cid:80)Nj=1(Uj −Vj) . (22) ψˆML =arg maxexpψ(cid:88)N ηψ(Vj) Nση2ψψ2 . (16) The above estimate coincides ex2aNctly with the one reported in ψ − 2 j=1 [15]. 5 2) Log-NormallyDistributedLikelihoodFunction: Another where U and V denote the first order statistics of the (1) (1) application of Theorem 1 is when the samples Uj and Vj are samples Uj and Vj, respectively. The ML estimator θˆML for log-normally distributed. In this case, we have the clock offset is given by f(U;ξ)= (cid:113)21πσξ2 j(cid:89)N=1Uj−1exp(cid:32)−(cid:80)Nj=1(l2oσgξ2Uj −ξ)(cid:33) Proof: By usingθˆMaLrg=umξˆeMnLts−2sψiˆmMiLla.r to Theorem 1(a3n0d) exp(cid:32)ξ(cid:80)Nj=1logUj N ξ2(cid:33) . (23) noting that the N constrains Uj ≥ξ (resp. Vj ≥ψ) are linear ∝ σ2 − 2σ2 functionsofξ (resp.ψ),theproofofconcavityreadilyfollows. ξ ξ Also,thelikelihoodmaximizationproblems(27)and(28)can A comparison with (13) yields be equivalently expressed as logU 1   ηξ(Uj)= σξ2 j, ση2ξ = σξ2 . ξˆML =arg mξaxexpξ(cid:88)N ηξ(Uj)−Nσ2η2ξξ2 j=1 Following a similar line of reasoning, such that U ξ (1) ηψ(Vj)= loσgψ2Vj, ση2ψ = σ1ψ2 . ψˆML =arg maxexp≥ψ(cid:88)N ηψ(Vj) Nση2ψψ2 ψ − 2 The ML estimator for θ can obtained from (18) using (17a) j=1 and (17b), and is given by such that V ψ . (1) ≥ (cid:80)N (logU logV ) The unconstrained maximizer ξ¯ of the objective function in θˆML = j=1 j − j . (24) (27)isgivenby(17a).Ifξ¯ U ,thenξˆ =ξ¯.Ontheother N (1) ML ≤ hand, if U ξ¯, then the ML estimate is given by ξˆ = (1) ML ≤ B. Constrained Likelihood U(1) using concavity of the objective function. Combining the two cases, the ML estimate in (29a) is obtained. A similar Using(7),(8)and(12),theconstrainedlikelihoodfunctions explanation applies to the ML estimate ψˆ in (29b) and θˆ ML ML are given by follows from the invariance principle.   1) Exponentially Distributed Likelihood Function: For the f(U;ξ) expξ(cid:88)N ηξ(Uj) Nση2ξξ2(cid:89)N I(Uj ξ) case when the likelihood functions are exponentially dis- ∝ − 2 − tributed,thedensityfunctionofthesamplesU canbewritten j=1 j=1 j (25) as [14]     f(V;ψ)∝expψ(cid:88)N ηψ(Vj)−Nσ2η2ψψ2(cid:89)N I(Vj −ψ). f(U;ξ)=λNξ exp−λξ(cid:88)N (Uj −ξ)I(U(1)−ξ) (31) j=1 j=1 j=1 (26) whereλ−ξ1 isthemeanofthedelaysXj.Thedensityfunction The resulting ML estimates of ξ and ψ can be obtained as can be rearranged as   ξˆML =arg maxexpξ(cid:88)N ηξ(Uj) Nση2ξξ2 f(U;ξ)∝exp(Nλξξ) . ξ − 2 Comparing the above formulation with (25), j=1 such that U ξ (27) η (U )=λ , σ2 =0. (32) j ≥ ξ j ξ η   ψˆML =arg maxexpψ(cid:88)N ηψ(Vj) Nση2ψψ2 Using (29a), the ML estimate is given by ψ − 2 ξˆ =U . (33) j=1 ML (1) such that Vj ψ . (28) Employing a similar reasoning, ≥ ψˆ =V . ML (1) Theorem 2: The likelihood maximization problems (27) Using (30), the ML estimate of θ is given by and (28) are strictly concave and the ML estimates can be expressed as U V θˆ = (1)− (1) , (34) ML (cid:32)(cid:80)N η (U ) (cid:33) 2 ξˆ =min j=1 ξ j ,U (29a) which coincides exactly with the one reported in [14], where ML Nσ2 (1) ηξ it is derived using graphical arguments. (cid:32)(cid:80)N η (V ) (cid:33) ψˆ =min j=1 ψ j ,V (29b) Remark 1: The ML estimation method outlined above dif- ML Nσ2 (1) fers from the previous work [14] in that it is based on convex ηψ 6 optimization,while[14]maximizedthelikelihoodgraphically. where w and v are i.i.d such that w ,v (0,σ2). The k k k k ∼N Hence, this approach presents an alternative view of the ML posterior pdf can be expressed as estimation of the clock offset. It also allows us the determine f(ξ,ψ U,V) f(ξ,ψ)f(U,V ξ,ψ) the ML estimator of θ when the likelihood function is log- | ∝ | N N normally distributed. In addition, Theorem 2 will also be (cid:89) (cid:89) =f(ξ ) f(ξ ξ )f(ψ ) f(ψ ψ ) useful in Section IV where estimation of θ in the Bayesian 0 k| k−1 0 k| k−1 regime is discussed . k=1 k=1 N (cid:89) f(U ξ )f(V ψ ) (37) k k k k · | | k=1 IV. AFACTORGRAPHAPPROACH where uniform priors f(ξ ) and f(ψ ) are assumed. Define 0 0 The imperfections introduced by environmental conditions δk =∆ f(ξ ξ ) (ξ ,σ2), νk =∆ f(ψ ψ ) inthequartzoscillatorinsensornodesresultsinatime-varying k−(ψ1 ,σ2k),| fk−1=∆∼f(NU kξ−)1, h =∆k−f(1V ψ ),kw|hke−re1 th∼e k 1 k k k k k k clock offset between nodes in a WSN. To cater for such a lNikelih−ood functions are giv|en by | temporal variation, in this section, a Bayesian approach to (cid:32) (cid:33) the clock synchronization problem is adopted by representing f(U ξ ) exp ξ η (U ) ση2kξ2 the a-posteriori density as a factor graph. The inference is k| k ∝ k ξ k − 2 k performed on the resulting factor graph by message passing (cid:32) (cid:33) σ2 using max-product algorithm. To ensure completeness, a brief f(V ψ ) exp ψ η (V ) ηkψ2 , (38) description of factor graphs and the max-product algorithm is k| k ∝ k ψ k − 2 k provided below. basedon(12).Theresultingfactorgraphrepresentationofthe A factor graph is a bipartite graph that represents a factor- posterior pdf is shown in Fig. 2. ization of a global function as a product of local functions called factors, each factor being dependent on a subset of Remark 2: A few important observations of this represen- variables. Factor graphs are often used to produce a graphical tation can be summarized below. model depicting the various inter-dependencies between a Noticethatthesubstitutionin(3)rendersacycle-freena- collection of interacting variables. Each factor is represented • ture to the factor graph. Therefore, inference by message byafactornodeandeachvariablehasanedgeorahalf-edge. passing on such a factor graph is indeed optimal [24]. An edge connects a particular variable to a factor node if and The two factor graphs shown in Fig. 2 have a similar only if it is an argument of the factor expressed by the factor • structure and hence, message computations will only be node [24]. shown for the estimate ξˆ . Clearly, similar expressions N Inference can be performed by passing messages will apply to ψˆ . N (sometimes called beliefs) along the edges of a factor In addition, only the case of constrained likelihood will be graph. In particular, max-product algorithm is used to considered, since the case of an unconstrained likelihood is compute the messages exchanged between variables and subsumed,aswillbeshownshortly.Theclockoffsetestimator factor nodes. These messages can be summarized as follows θˆ can be obtained from ξˆ and ψˆ using (4). N N N By defining α =∆ ση2ξ,k and β =∆ η (U ), the variable to factor node: ξ,k − 2 ξ,k ξ k constrained likelihood function for the samples U can be k (cid:89) written as m (x)= m (x) (35) x f h x → h∈n(x)\f → fk ∝exp(cid:0)αξ,kξk2+βξ,kξk(cid:1)I(Uk−ξk). (39) factor node to variable: The message passing strategy starts by sending a message from the factor node f to the variable ξ . The variable N N   ξ relays this message to the factor node δN . The factor (cid:89) N N 1 mf x(x)=maxf(Z) mz f(z) (36) node computes the product of this message w−ith the factor → \{x} z∈n(f)\{x} → aδfNNte−r1‘saunmdmseanridzsintgh’eorveesrultthiengvamrieasbslaegξe t.oInthethevamriaaxb-leproξNdu−c1t N where Z =n(f) is the set of arguments of the local function algorithm,a‘max’functionisusedasasummarypropagation f.Themarginaldistributionsassociatedwitheachvariablecan operator (cf. (36)). These messages are computed as be obtained by the product of all incoming messages on the m =f variable. fN→ξN N In order to sufficiently capture the temporal variations, the mξN→δNN−1 =fN parameters ξ and ψ are assumed to evolve through a Gauss- m max δN m Markov process given by δNN−1→ξN−1 ∝ ξN N−1· ξN→δNN−1 1 (cid:18) (ξ ξ )2(cid:19) N N 1 =max exp − − − ξk =ξk 1+wk ξN √2πσ2 2σ2 ψ =ψ− +v for k =1,...,N exp(cid:0)α ξ2 +β ξ (cid:1)I(U ξ ) k k−1 k · ξ,N N ξ,N N N − N 7 f1 fk fN ξ0 ξ1 ξk ξN δ0 δ01 ... δkk−1 δkk+1 ... δNN−1 h1 hk hN ψ0 ψ1 ψk ψN ν0 ν01 ... νkk−1 νkk+1 ... νNN−1 Fig.2. Factorgraphrepresentationoftheposteriordensity(37) which can be rearranged as Upon receipt of this message, the factor node δNN−21 delivers m max exp(cid:0)A ξ2 +B ξ2 + a product of this message and the factor δNN−21 to t−he variable δNN−1→ξN−1 ∝ξN≤UN C ξ,Nξ Nξ +ξ,NDN−1ξ (cid:1) (40) nboedeexpξrNe−ss2edafatser summarizing over ξN−1. T−his message can ξ,N N N 1 ξ,N N − where Aξ,N =∆ −2σ12 +αξ,N, Bξ,N =∆ −2σ12 m=δmNNa−−x21→ξN1−2 ∝eξxNp−(cid:18)m1≤aUx(Nξ−N1−δ1NN−−−21ξN·m−2ξ)N2−(cid:19)1→δNN−−21 ∆ 1 ∆ ξN−1 √2πσ2 − 2σ2 Cξ,N = σ2, Dξ,N =βξ,N . (41) (cid:40)(cid:32) C2 (cid:33) C D (cid:41) exp B ξ,N ξ2 ξ,N ξ,Nξ Letξ¯N betheunconstrainedmaximizeroftheexponentinthe · ξ,N − 4Aξ,N N−1− 2Aξ,N N−1 objective function above, i.e., exp(cid:0)α ξ2 +β ξ (cid:1)I(U ξ ). ξ¯ =argmax (cid:0)A ξ2 +B ξ2 +C ξ ξ + · ξ,N−1 N−1 ξ,N−1 N−1 N−1− N−1 N ξN ξ,N N ξ,N N−1 ξ,N N N−1 After some algebraic steps, the message above can be com- D ξ (cid:1). pactly represented as ξ,N N This implies that m max exp(A ξ2 + C ξ +D δNN−−21→ξN−2 ∝ξN−1≤UN−1 ξ,N−1 N−1 ξ¯N = ξ,N N−1 ξ,N . (42) Bξ,N 1ξN2 2+Cξ,N 1ξN 1ξN 2+Dξ,N 1ξN 1) (44) − 2Aξ,N − − − − − − − where Following aline of reasoning similar toTheorem 2, itfollows that 1 C2 ξˆN =min(cid:0)ξ¯N,UN(cid:1) . Aξ,N−1 =∆ −2σ2 +αξ,N−1+Bξ,N − 4Aξξ,N,N, sHtaogwee.vHere,nξ¯cNe,dweepennedesdotonfξuNrt−h1e,rwtrahvicehrsiestuhnedcehtearinmbinaecdkwatarthdiss. Bξ,N−1 =∆ −2σ12, Cξ,N−1 =∆ σ12 C D Assuming that ξ¯ U , ξ¯ from (42) can be plugged back D =∆ β ξ,N ξ,N . in (40) which afNter≤somNe simNplification yields ξ,N−1 ξ,N−1− 2Aξ,N (cid:40)(cid:32) C2 (cid:33) Proceeding as before, the unconstrained maximizer ξ¯N 1 of m exp B ξ,N ξ2 the objective function above is given by − δNN−1→ξN−1 ∝ ξ,N − 4Aξ,N N−1− Cξ2,ANξD,Nξ,NξN−1(cid:41). (43) ξ¯N−1 =−Cξ,N−12ξNA−ξ,2N+−1Dξ,N−1 andthesolutiontothemaximizationproblem(44)isexpressed Themessagepassedfromthevariableξ tothefactornode as N 1 δNN−21 is the product of the message (4−3) and the message ξˆN 1 =min(cid:0)ξ¯N 1,UN 1(cid:1) . rec−eived from the factor node f , i.e., − − − N 1 − Again, ξ¯ depends on ξ and therefore, the solution N 1 N 2 mξN−1→δNN−−21 =mδNN−1→ξN−1 ·mfN−1→ξN−1 . demands a−nother traversal ba−ckwards on the factor graph 8 representation in Fig. 2. By plugging ξ¯ back in (44), it Proof: The constants A , C and D are defined in N 1 ξ,k ξ,k ξ,k follows that − (41) and (46). The proof follows by noting that −Cξ,k > 0 2Aξ,k which implies that g (.) is a monotonically increasing func- m ξ,k δNN−−(cid:40)21(cid:32)→ξN−2 ∝ (cid:33) (cid:41) tion. exp Bξ,N−1− 4CAξ2ξ,N,N−11 ξN2−2− Cξ,N2A−ξ1,DNξ,1N−1ξN−2 Wbeitchonthveennioetnattliyonwgrξit,tke(n.)a,sthefollowingchainofequalitiescan − − (45) ξ¯ =g (cid:16)ξˆ(cid:17) 1 ξ,1 0 which has a form similar to (43). It is clear that one can keep (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:17)(cid:17) ξˆ =min U ,g ξˆ traversing back in the graph yielding messages similar to (43) 1 1 ξ,1 0 and (45). In general, for i=1,...,N −1 we can write ξ¯2 =gξ,2(cid:16)ξˆ1(cid:17) 1 C2 (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:17)(cid:17) Aξ,N−i =∆ −2σ2 +αξ,N−i+Bξ,N−i+1− 4Aξξ,N,N−ii++11 ξˆ2 =min U2,gξ,2 ξˆ1 − B =∆ 1 , C =∆ 1 (46) where ξ,N−i −2σ2 ξ,N−i σ2 (cid:16) (cid:17) (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:17)(cid:17)(cid:17) ∆ Cξ,N i+1Dξ,N i+1 gξ,2 ξˆ1 =gξ,2 min U1,gξ,1 ξˆ0 Dξ,N−i =βξ,N−i− 2−Aξ,N−i+1− =min(cid:16)gξ,2(U1),gξ,2(cid:16)gξ,1(cid:16)ξˆ0(cid:17)(cid:17)(cid:17) (54) and ξ¯N i = Cξ,N−iξN−i−1+Dξ,N−i (47) wexhperreess(e5d4)asfollows from Lemma 1. The estimate ξˆ2 can be − − 2Aξ,N i ξˆN i = min(cid:0)ξ¯N i,UN i−(cid:1) . (48) ξˆ =min(cid:16)U ,min(cid:16)g (U ),g (cid:16)g (cid:16)ξˆ(cid:17)(cid:17)(cid:17)(cid:17) − − − 2 2 ξ,2 1 ξ,2 ξ,1 0 Using (47) and (48) with i=N −1, it follows that =min(cid:16)U2,gξ,2(U1),gξ,2(cid:16)gξ,1(cid:16)ξˆ0(cid:17)(cid:17)(cid:17) . C ξ +D ξ¯1 = ξ,1 0 ξ,1 (49) By following the same procedure, one can write − 2A ξ,1 ξˆ1 =min(cid:0)ξ¯1,U1(cid:1) . (50) ξˆ3 =min(cid:16)U3,gξ,3(U2),gξ,3(gξ,2(U1)), (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:17)(cid:17)(cid:17)(cid:17) Similarly, by observing the form of (43) and (45), it follows g g g ξˆ . ξ,3 ξ,2 ξ,1 0 that m exp(cid:40)(cid:32)B Cξ2,1 (cid:33)ξ2 Cξ,1Dξ,1ξ (cid:41) . For m≥j, define δ01→ξ0 ∝ ξ,1− 4Aξ,1 0 − 2Aξ,1 0 Gmξ,j(.)=∆ gξ,m(gξ,m 1...gξ,j(.)) . (55) (51) − The estimate ξˆ can be obtained by maximizing the received The estimate ξˆ can, therefore, be compactly represented as 0 3 message in (51). It can be noticed from the structure of the (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:17)(cid:17) factorgraphthatthismaximizationisinherentlyunconstrained ξˆ3 =min U3,G3ξ,3(U2),G3ξ,2(U1),G3ξ,1 ξˆ0 . i.e., Hence, one can keep estimating ξˆ at each stage using this k ξˆ0 =ξ¯0 =mξa0x mδ01→ξ0 strategy. Note that the estimator only depends on functions of data and can be readily evaluated. C D ⇒ξˆ0 = 4A Bξ,1 ξ,1C2 . (52) Inordertoderiveanalogousexpressionsforψ,asimilarline ξ,1 ξ,1− ξ,1 of reasoning should be followed. In particular, the constants The estimate in (52) can now be substituted in (49) to yield A , B , C and D for i = 0,...,N 1, ξ,N i ξ,N i ξ,N i ξ,N i ξ¯, which can then be used to solve for ξˆ in (50). Clearly, can b−e obtain−ed straig−htforwardly−from (41) and (46)−by 1 1 this chain of calculations can be continued using recursions substituting α and β with α and β , ξ,N i ξ,N i ψ,N i ψ,N i (47) and (48). respectively. Usin−g these cons−tants, ψˆ , g − and Gm c−an 0 ψ,k ψ,j Define be defined analogously to (52), (53) and (55). C x+D g (x)=∆ ξ,k ξ,k . (53) Generalizingthisframework,theclosedformexpressionfor ξ,k − 2Aξ,k theclockoffsetestimateθˆN isgivenbythefollowingtheorem. A key property of the function g (.), which proves useful in the quest for a closed form soluξt,ikon, can be summarized in Theorem 3: ThestateestimatesξˆN andψˆN fortheposterior the following lemma. pdf in (37) can be expressed as Lemma 1: For real numbers a and b, the function g (.) (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:17)(cid:17) ξ,k ξˆ =min U ,GN (U ),...,GN (U ),GN ξˆ defined in (53) satisfies N N ξ,N N 1 ξ,2 1 ξ,1 0 − (cid:16) (cid:16) (cid:17)(cid:17) ψˆ =min V ,GN (V ),...,GN (V ),GN ψˆ gξ,k(min(a,b))=min(gξ,k(a),gξ,k(b)) . N N ψ,N N−1 ξ,2 1 ξ,1 0 9 and the factor graph based clock offset estimate (FGE) θˆ is Using these values for α and β , (41) and (46) can be N ξ,k ξ,k given by written as 1 1 1 θˆN = ξˆN −ψˆN . (56) Aξ,N =−2σ2 − 2σξ2,N, Bξ,N =−2σ2 2 1 U C = , D = N (59) ξ,N σ2 ξ,N σ2 ξ,N Proof: The proof follows from the discussion above and 1 1 C2 using (4). Aξ,N−i =−2σ2 − 2σξ2,N i +Bξ,N−i+1− 4Aξξ,N,N−ii++11 − − Remark 3: The closed form expressions in Theorem 3 1 1 B = , C = enabletheestimationoftheclockoffset,whenitmaybetime- ξ,N−i −2σ2 ξ,N−i σ2 U C D hvaarvyeinagGaanudssthiaenl,ikeexlpihoonoendtifaulnoctriolongs,-nfo(rUmka|lξkd)isatrnidbufti(oVnk.|ψk), Dξ,N−i = σξ2N,N−ii − ξ,N2−Ai+ξ,1N ξi,+N1−i+1 − − fori=1,...,N 1.Usingsimilararguments,itcanbeshown that the estimate−ψˆ is given by N (cid:16) (cid:17) A. Gaussian Distributed Likelihood Function ψˆN =GNψ,1 ψˆ0 . It follows from (4) that the FGE, θˆ , can be expressed as A particular case of the Bayesian framework described N fab(o(Vξvke|,ψσko2)cc)huaravsnedwfah(eVGnauψlsisk)iealnihodois(dtψribf,uuσtni2cotnio,),nisi..ee..,f, (fU(kU|kξk|ξ)k)an∼d θˆN = GNξ,1(cid:16)ξˆ0(cid:17)−2GNψ,1(cid:16)ψˆ0(cid:17) . (60) N k ξ,k k| k ∼N k ψ,k The behavior of θˆ can be further investigated for the case N (cid:40) (cid:41) when the noise variance σ2 in the Gauss-Markov model goes 1 (U ξ )2 f(Uk|ξk)= (cid:113)2πσξ2,k exp − k2σ−ξ2,kk to zero. Considerg (ξ)= Cξ,Nξ+Dξ,N (cid:32) (cid:33) ξ,N − 2A ξ U ξ2 ξ,N ∝exp 2kσ2k − 2σk2 . (57) wheretheconstantsAξ,N,Bξ,N,Cξ,N andDξ,N aregivenby ξ,k ξ,k (59). After some algebraic steps, we have σ2ξ+σ2U The aforementioned Gaussian distribution constitutes an un- g (ξ)= ξ N . constrained likelihood function, i.e., the domain of the pdf is ξ,N σ2+σ2 ξ independentoftheunknownparameterξ .Itisclearfromthe k As σ2 0, g (ξ) ξ. Similarly, it can be shown that ξ,N message passing approach that at each stage k of the factor → → g (ξ) ξ as σ2 0. Hence, it follows that in the low graph, the unconstrained maximizer ξ¯k is the actual solution syξ,sNte−m1nois→e regime, a→s σ2 0 to the likelihood maximization problem → C D ξˆ ξˆ = ξ,1 ξ,1 . N → 0 4A B C2 max exp(cid:0)A ξ2+B ξ2 +C ξ ξ +D ξ (cid:1) ξ,1 ξ,1− ξ,1 ξ,k k ξ,k k 1 ξ,k k k 1 ξ,k k ξk − − Similarly, it can be shown that C D i.e., ξˆk = ξ¯k ∀k = 1,...,N. Hence, the unconstrained ψˆN →ψˆ0 = 4Aψ,1Bψ,ψ1,1ψ−,1Cψ2,1 . likelihood maximization problem is subsumed in the message Therefore passing framework for constrained likelihood maximization. ξˆ ψˆ It follows from Theorem 3 that ξˆ for Gaussian distributed θˆ 0− 0 , N N → 2 observations U in (57) is given by k which can be proven to be equal to the ML estimator (22). (cid:16) (cid:17) ξˆN =GNξ,1 ξˆ0 B. Log-Normally Distributed Likelihood Function The log-normally distributed likelihood function in the whereξˆ andGN (.)aredefinedin(52)and(55),respectively. Bayesian regime can be expressed as 0 ξ,1 (cid:32) (cid:33) Evaluating ξˆN requires to determine the constants in (41) and 1 (logUk ξk)2 f(U ξ )= exp − (46). By comparing (57) with (39), we have k| k U σ √2π − 2σ2 k ξ,k ξ,k (cid:32) (cid:33) ξ log(U ) ξ2 αξ,k =−2σ12 , βξ,k = σU2k . (58) ∝exp k2σξ2,kk − 2σkξ2,k . (61) ξ,k ξ,k 10 By comparing (61) and (39), we have and so on. The estimator ξˆ at the last step can be evaluated 0 as 1 logU k C D αξ,k =−2σξ2,k βξ,k = σξ2,k . ξˆ0 = 4Aξ,1Bξ,1ξ,1ξ−,1Cξ2,1 =+∞. Clearly,theonlydifferenceherewiththeGaussiandistribution This implies that is a redefinition of βξ,k. The expression of ξˆN in this case is GN (ξˆ)=+ . (64) again ξ,1 0 ∞ (cid:16) (cid:17) ξˆ =GN ξˆ Using (64) and Theorem 3, it readily follows that N ξ,1 0 ξˆ =min(U ,U +λ σ2,U +2λ σ2, where GNξ,1(.) and ξˆ0 are given by (55) and (52), respectively. N N N−1...,ξU +(NN−2 1)λξσ2). (65) The recursively evaluated constants in (41) and (46) can be 1 ξ − written as Similarly, for the pdf [14] 1 1 1 Aξ,N =−2σ2 − 2σ2 , Bξ,N =−2σ2 f(Vk|ψk)=λψexp(−λψ(Vk−ψk))I(Vk−ψk) ξ,N exp(λ ψ )I(V ψ ), 1 logUN ∝ ψ k k− k C = , D = ξ,N σ2 ξ,N σ2 the estimate ψˆ is given by ξ,N N Aξ,N−i =−2σ12 − 2σξ21,N i +Bξ,N−i+1− 4CAξ2ξ,N,N−ii++11 ψˆN =min(VN,VN−1.+..λ,ψVσ2+,V(NN−2+1)2λλψσσ22), (66) 1 − 1 − 1 − ψ Bξ,N−i =−2σ2, Cξ,N−i = σ2 and the estimate θˆN can be obtained using (56), (65) and (66) logU C D as N i ξ,N i+1 ξ,N i+1 Dξ,N−i = σξ2,N −i − 2−Aξ,N i+1− θˆ = 1min(U ,U +λ σ2,U +2λ σ2, − − N 2 N N−1 ξ N−2 ξ for i = 1,...,N 1. Similar arguments apply to ψ. Hence, the FGE θˆN can b−e expressed as ...,U1+(N −1)λξσ2)− 1 (cid:16) (cid:17) (cid:16) (cid:17) min(V ,V +λ σ2,V +2λ σ2, θˆN = GNξ,1 ξˆ0 −2GNψ,1 ψˆ0 . (62) 2 N N−1...,ψV1+(NN−−2 1)λψψσ2). (67) Again, as the Gauss-Markov system noise σ2 0, the above As the Gauss-Markov system noise σ2 0, (67) yields → → estimator approaches its ML counterpart (24). min(U ,...,U ) min(V ,...,V ) θˆ θˆ = N 1 − N 1 , N ML → 2 C. Exponential Distribution which is the ML estimator given by (34). Theorem 3 can also be used to derive a Bayesian estimator ξˆN fortheexponentiallydistributedlikelihoodcaseconsidered V. CLASSICALANDBAYESIANBOUNDS in [14]. In this case, we have Toevaluatetheperformanceoftheestimatorsderivedinthe f(U ξ )=λ exp( λ (U ξ ))I(U ξ ) precedingsections,classicalaswellasBayesianlowerbounds k k ξ ξ k k k k | − − − exp(λ ξ )I(U ξ ) (63) onthevarianceoftheestimatorsarediscussed.Theplacement ξ k k k ∝ − ofalowerboundallowsonetocompareestimatorsbyplotting where λ−ξ1 is the mean network delay of Xk. A comparison their performance against the bound. It must be emphasized of (63) with (39) reveals that herethat theresultsinthis sectionassumeno specificformof the log-partition function and are therefore, valid for arbitrary α =0, β =λ . ξ,k ξ,k ξ distributionsfromtheexponentialfamily,whichisawideclass For these values of α and β , the constants A , B , and contains almost all distributions of interest. Hence, these ξ,k ξ,k ξ,k ξ,k C and D are given by results are fairly general and can be useful in their own right ξ,k ξ,k in classical as well as Bayesian parameter estimation theory, 1 1 Aξ,k =−2σ2, Bξ,k =−2σ2 and at the same time will be used as a stepping stone towards 1 comparing the estimators developed thus far. Cξ,k = σ2, Dξ,k =λξ The likelihood function of the data is considered an arbitrary member of the exponential family of distributions. for all k =1,...,N. Using Theorem 3, we have In addition, depending on whether the domain of the GNξ,N(UN−1)=−Cξ,NU2NA−ξ1,N+Dξ,N lciakseelsihooofdudnecpoennsdtrsaionnedthaespwarealml eatesr ctoonsbteraiensetidmalitkedel,ihboootdh =U +λ σ2 . functions are discussed to maintain full generality. The N 1 ξ − general expressions for the unconstrained and constrained Similarly it can be shown that likelihood functions for observations Z =∆ [Z ,...,Z ]T are 1 N GN (U )=U +2λ σ2 given by ξ,N 1 N 2 N 2 ξ − − −

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