2017 Rate Adjustment Schedules

119 Pages·2016·7.01 MB·English

Schedule I
GreenMountainPowerCorporation
FiscalYear(FY)2017TotalRateImpact
Revenue Rate
$in000's Deficiency Impact
FY2017ChangeinBaseRates $ (142) -0.03%
FY2017PowerSupplyAdjustor $ 5,342 0.96%
$ 5,200 0.93%
FY2017ChangeinBaseRateswillapplytoallrateclassesstartingOctober1,2016,exceptfor
theTransmissionClasscustomer. Thechangeincludesa9.02%allowedrateofreturn,which
reflectstheformulaicresultassociatedwithmid-July10-yearTreasuryBondrates. Pleasenote
thatBaseRatesincludethesecondyearofthetwo-yearExogenousChangeAdjustment
collection. Thisadjustment,consistingprimarilyoftheMajorStormAdjustmentof$15.2Mfor
theperiodOctober1,2014throughMarch31,2015offsetpartiallybyapplicationofthe
VermontYankeeRevenueSharingproceedsof$7.9M,resultsinacollectionof$3.1MinFY
2017.
FYPowerAdjustorincludesrecoveryofanunder-collectionof$5.3MfortheperiodApril1,
2015toMarch31,2016.
SCHEDULEI(A)
BASEO&MCALCULATION
2017BaseRate(filedAugust1,2015)
PriorYearBaseO&MCosts $ 120,703,671
CPI-UNortheastAdjustment1] $ 724,223
CurrentYearBaseO&MCosts $ 121,427,894
1] BasedonlatestavailablereportasofApril30
Description of 2017 Non-Base O&M Costs – Support Schedule I(B-1)
Thepurposeofthisdocumentistodiscussthefollowingcomponentsofthe2017CostofService:
Rate Year 2017
PERBOOKS ADJUSTMENT PROFORMA
BALANCES COL3-COL1 BALANCES
COSTOFSERVICE-$in000s (1) (2) (3)
NonBaseO&MCosts-AMI 1,935 (1,193) 742
NonBaseO&MCosts-KCW 930 27 957
NonBaseO&MCosts-VMPD 263 (150) 113
NonBaseO&MCosts-7496MOU 0 0 0
ThesecostsareconsideredO&Minnature,butarenotincludedintheplatform. Pleasenotethatin
additiontoplatformcostsandthenon-baseO&Mcostsshownabove,thecompany’sinternal
generationcostsarefoundinthe“Production”lineofthesummarycostofservice.
Non-BaseO&MCosts–AMI -ThesearecostsassociatedwiththeimplementationofSmartMeters
withintheGMPterritory. WhiletheTestYearvalueof$1.935MMisspendingassociatedwith
SmartMeters,theRateYearvalueof$0.742MMalsocontainsanettingeffectduetosavingsresulting
fromtheadoptionofthistechnology. The2017savingsof$1.566MMreflectcostsoriginallyembedded
withinthe2013platform–adjustedbytheplatforminflation-thathavebeeneliminatedduetothe
implementationofAMI. The2017RateYearspendingforAMIis$2.307MM. Thechangebetweenthe
RateYearvalueof$2.307MMandtheTestYearvalueof$1.935MMisduelargelytoaninfrastructure
buildout-associatedamortizationof$0.266MMinFY17thatbeganinApril,2016.
Non-BaseO&MCosts–KCW- Thislinerepresentscostsassociatedwiththesynchronouscondenser
builttosupporttheKingdomCommunityWindFarm. PeranagreementwiththeDPS,GMPhasmoved
someKCW-relatedexpensesfromtheProductionlineintheCostofServicetothisnon-platform,non-
PowerSupplyAdjustorline. Theincreaseof$0.027MMfrom$0.930MMintheTestYearto$0.957MM
intheRateYearreflectsthoseDPSagreement-affiliatedexpensesthatwereembeddedinthe
ProductionTestYearthatwerethenmovedtothislineintheCostofService.
Non-BaseO&MCosts–VMPD–Thislinerepresentscostsassociatedwithtreetrimmingtoreclaimthe
entireDanbytransmissionlinefromHuntingtonFallstoDanbyQuarry.
Non-BaseO&MCosts–7496MOU–Nolongerapplicable.
Exh. EFR-5
GREENMOUNTAINPOWERCORPORATION
SUMMARYOFREVENUESUNDERCURRENTANDPROPOSEDRATES
RATEYEAROCTOBER1,2016-SEPTEMBER2017
-0.03%
AVERAGENO KWH REVENUEAT REVENUEAT PERCENT
OFCUSTOMERS SALES CURRENTRATES PROPOSEDRATES DIFFERENCE INCREASE
Residential 221,698 1,482,869,239 $253,479,926 $253,415,556 ($64,370) -0.03%
SmallCommercial&Industrial 41,054 1,551,016,166 220,572,870 $220,516,857 (56,014) -0.03%
LargeCommercial&Industrial
OtherLarge 70 783,844,005 80,968,762 $80,948,200 (20,562) -0.03%
TransmissionClass 1 399,012,519 35,681,000 35,681,000 - 0.00%
TotalLargeC&I 71 1,182,856,524 116,649,762 116,629,200 (20,562)
StreetLightingandOther 160 5,064,681 2,742,337 $2,741,641 (696) -0.03%
TotalRetailSales 262,983 4,221,806,611 $593,444,895 $593,303,253 ($141,642) -0.03%
2.2
GREEN MOUNTAIN POWER CORPORATION
Calculation of Rate Increases
$ in 000's
Total Cost of Service to Ultimate Consumers 593,303
Remove VY Outage Reserve Impact: 0
Net Cost of Service for Non-Transmission Class Consumer: 593,303
Revenue from Ultimate Consumers 593,445
Transmission Class: 35,681
All Other Classes: 557,764
593,445
TotalCostofServicetoUltimateConsumers 593,303
2017TransmissionClassRevenue: $35,681
TotalCostofServiceforNon-TransmissionClassCustomers: 557,622
TotalRevenuefromNon-TransmissionClassCustomers(2016Rates) 557,764
RevenueDeficiencyfromNon-TransmissionClassCustomers: (142)
RateIncreaseforNon-TransmissionClassCustomers -0.03%
Check:
593,303 TotalCostofServicetoUltimateConsumers
35,681 = TransmissionClassRevenueat2016Rates.
0.00% = FY2017RateIncrease
35,681 35,681 = FY2017TransmissionClassRevenue
557,764 = Non-TransmissionClassRevenueat2016Rates.
-0.03% = FY2017RateIncrease
557,622 557,622 = FY2017Non-TransmissionClassRevenue
593,303 = TotalFY2017Revenue
0 = Difference
2.2/2
Green Mountain Power
2017 Budget Forecast Report
Preparedfor:
Green Mountain Power
Preparedby:
Itron, Inc.
20 Park Plaza
Boston, MA 02116-4399
617-423-7660
July 28, 2016
2.2.1
T C
ABLE OF ONTENTS
Table of Contents.......................................................................................................i
Table of Figures........................................................................................................ii
Table of Tables..........................................................................................................ii
2017 Budget Forecast: Forecast Summary.............................................................1
1. Class Sales Forecast.........................................................................................3
Residential.........................................................................................................3
Commercial Sales..............................................................................................7
Industrial and Other Sales...............................................................................9
2. Forecast Assumptions.....................................................................................10
Economic Drivers............................................................................................10
End-Use Saturation and Efficiency Trends...................................................10
Customer Specific Load Adjustments ............................................................12
Other Exogenous Forecasts............................................................................12
Solar Load Forecast.........................................................................................12
3. Methodology....................................................................................................13
Class Sales Forecast........................................................................................13
Residential.......................................................................................................14
Commercial......................................................................................................19
Industrial.........................................................................................................20
Other Use.........................................................................................................21
4. Solar Load Forecast........................................................................................22
Solar Capacity (MW) Forecast........................................................................22
Allocation of Solar Generation to Rate Classes.............................................24
Allocation to Own Use vs. Excess Use............................................................25
5. Revenue Forecast............................................................................................25
Step 1: Derive Rate Class Monthly Sales Forecast.......................................26
Step 2: Estimate monthly billing determinants ...........................................27
Step 3: Calculate Rate Schedule and Revenue Class Revenues ..................28
Step 4: Model Rate Restructuring.................................................................28
Step 5: Validate and Calibrate Revenue Calculation...................................29
Appendix A: Model Statistics and Coefficients....................................................30
Itron,Inc. i
2.2.1
T F
ABLE OF IGURES
Figure 1: Historical and Projected Net Metering Capacity.........................................2
Figure 2: Residential End-Use Indices (Annual kWh per Household).......................6
Figure 3: Commercial End-Use Intensities (kWh/sqft)..............................................8
Figure 4: Lighting Intensity Comparison...................................................................12
Figure 5: XHeat Variable.........................................................................................15
Figure 6: XCool Variable.........................................................................................16
Figure 7: XOther Variable.......................................................................................16
Figure 8: Residential Average Use (kWh)...............................................................17
Figure 9: Residential Customer Forecast................................................................18
Figure 10: Residential Sales Forecast (MWh) ........................................................18
Figure 11: Commercial Sales Forecast (MWh).......................................................20
Figure 12: Industrial Sales Forecast (kWh).............................................................21
Figure 13: Other Sales Forecast (MWh).................................................................22
Figure 14: Monthly Solar Capacity Forecast............................................................23
Figure 15: Revenue Model......................................................................................26
Figure 16: Residential Rate Class Share Forecast (%)...........................................27
Figure 17: Rate RE02 Demand Customer - Sales Billing Block
Forecast............................................................................................................28
Figure 18: Residential Average Use Model.............................................................30
Figure 19: Residential Customer Model..................................................................31
Figure 20: Commercial Sales Model.......................................................................32
Figure 21: Commercial Customer Model................................................................32
Figure 22: Industrial Sales Model............................................................................34
Figure 23: Other Sales Model.................................................................................35
T T
ABLE OF ABLES
Table 1: Customer Class Sales Forecast (MWh).....................................................1
Table 2: Residential Customer and Use Forecast..................................................4
Table 3: Residential Economic Drivers...................................................................5
Table 4: Commercial Customer Usage Forecast....................................................7
Table 5: State GDP and Employment Forecast.....................................................9
Table 6: Industrial Sales Forecast........................................................................10
Table 7: Additional Solar Generation (FY Basis)..................................................13
Table 8: Solar Load Factors...................................................................................24
Table 9: Solar Generation (FY Basis)....................................................................25
ii
2.2.1
2017 B F : F S
UDGET ORECAST ORECAST UMMARY
The 2017 budget-year forecast was completed in June 2016. The forecast is
based on actual sales and customer data through May 2016. The forecast has
also been updated to reflect the February 2016 state economic outlook, current
energy efficiency program savings projections from Vermont Energy Investment
Corporation (VEIC), updated solar load projections, and expected increase in
heat pump saturation as a result of VEIC and GMP promotion of cold climate
heat pumps.
Sales forecasts are generated at the customer class level and include residential,
commercial, industrial and street lighting. Class level sales forecasts are then
allocated to rate schedules and billing determinants for the purpose of
estimating revenues. Sales, customers and revenues are projected through 2026.
The sales and customer forecasts are based on statistical models (linear
regression) that relate monthly class sales (average use in the residential sector)
to monthly weather conditions, population growth, economic activity, prices and
end-use efficiency improvements. The sales forecast is adjusted for factors not
reflected in historical data including expected changes in energy requirements
for the largest commercial and industrial customers, solar load penetration, and
cold climate heat pumps. Impact of future efficiency programs are incorporated
into the end-use intensity projections that drive the class sales forecasts. Over
the next 10-years, sales are expected to be flat. Table 1 shows the customer
class sales forecast.
Table 1: Customer Class Sales Forecast (MWh)
Year Residential Chg Commercial Chg Industrial Chg Other Chg Total Chg
2016 1,480,023 1,528,335 1,172,925 5,096 4,186,379
2017 1,482,869 0.2% 1,551,016 1.5% 1,182,857 0.8% 5,065 -0.6% 4,221,807 0.8%
2018 1,468,375 -1.0% 1,557,717 0.4% 1,189,175 0.5% 5,065 0.0% 4,220,332 0.0%
2019 1,452,155 -1.1% 1,561,728 0.3% 1,193,493 0.4% 5,065 0.0% 4,212,440 -0.2%
2020 1,428,216 -1.6% 1,563,121 0.1% 1,193,583 0.0% 5,065 0.0% 4,189,985 -0.5%
2021 1,407,962 -1.4% 1,560,101 -0.2% 1,192,359 -0.1% 5,065 0.0% 4,165,488 -0.6%
2022 1,400,397 -0.5% 1,562,887 0.2% 1,192,341 0.0% 5,065 0.0% 4,160,689 -0.1%
2023 1,396,486 -0.3% 1,567,415 0.3% 1,192,705 0.0% 5,065 0.0% 4,161,671 0.0%
2024 1,397,923 0.1% 1,573,504 0.4% 1,192,537 0.0% 5,065 0.0% 4,169,029 0.2%
2025 1,394,753 -0.2% 1,575,381 0.1% 1,192,316 0.0% 5,065 0.0% 4,167,515 0.0%
2026 1,396,384 0.1% 1,580,843 0.3% 1,192,458 0.0% 5,065 0.0% 4,174,750 0.2%
16-26 -0.6% 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% 0.0%
*Allsalesforecastsareona“booked”orcalendar-monthbasisbyfiscal-year(OcttoSep).
Itron,Inc. 1
2.2.1
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Itron,Inc. 2
2.2.1