•• Spending Affordability Committee •• 2016 Interim Report Annapolis, Maryland December 2016 Contributing Staff Writers Hiram L. Burch, Jr. Patrick S. Frank Scott P. Gates David B. Juppe Matthew D. Klein Steven D. McCulloch Simon G. Powell Michael C. Rubenstein Rebecca J. Ruff Theresa M. Tuszynski Reviewers Warren G. Deschenaux David C. Romans Support Staff Kimberly J. Landry For further information concerning this document contact: Library and Information Services Office of Policy Analysis Department of Legislative Services 90 State Circle Annapolis, Maryland 21401 Baltimore Area: 410-946-5400 ● Washington Area: 301-970-5400 Other Areas: 1-800-492-7122, Extension 5400 TTY: 410-946-5401 ● 301-970-5401 TTY users may also use the Maryland Relay Service to contact the General Assembly. Email: [email protected] Home Page: http://mgaleg.maryland.gov The Department of Legislative Services does not discriminate on the basis of age, ancestry, color, creed, marital status, national origin, race, religion, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, or disability in the admission or access to its programs, services, or activities. The Department’s Information Officer has been designated to coordinate compliance with the nondiscrimination requirements contained in Section 35.107 of the Department of Justice Regulations. Requests for assistance should be directed to the Information Officer at the telephone numbers shown above. ii iii iv v vi Maryland General Assembly Spending Affordability Committee 2016 Interim Membership Roster Delegate Ben Barnes, Presiding Chair Senator Roger Manno, Senate Chair Senators James E. DeGrange, Sr. George C. Edwards J. B. Jennings Edward J. Kasemeyer Richard S. Madaleno, Jr. Nathaniel J. McFadden Thomas M. Middleton Thomas V. Mike Miller, Jr. Douglas J. J. Peters Catherine E. Pugh Delegates Wendell R. Beitzel Michael E. Busch Tawanna P. Gaines Sheila E. Hixson Adrienne A. Jones Anne R. Kaiser Nicholaus R. Kipke Maggie McIntosh Samuel I. Rosenberg Citizens Advisory Committee John L. Bohanan Dana M. Jones Committee Staff Rebecca J. Ruff Kaitlyn S. Shulman Support Staff Kimberly J. Landry vii viii Contents Governor’s Letter of Transmittal ................................................................................................... iii Legislative Policy Committee’s Letter of Transmittal .....................................................................v Membership Roster ....................................................................................................................... vii 2016 Spending Affordability Committee Report and Recommendations to the Governor and the Legislative Policy Committee...................................................................................................1 Part 1 Economic Outlook .................................................................................................11 Part 2 General Fund Revenues .........................................................................................17 Part 3 Revenue Volatility .................................................................................................25 Part 4 General Fund Budget and Forecast ........................................................................33 Part 5 Local Government Assistance ...............................................................................47 Part 6 Capital Program .....................................................................................................53 Part 7 Transportation ........................................................................................................69 Part 8 State Employment and Employee Benefits............................................................75 Part 9 Supporting Material ...............................................................................................83 ix x
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