World Out of Balance: Navigating Global Risks to Seize Competitive Advantage

258 Pages·2004·4.93 MB·English

by  Paul Laudicina

Praise for World Out of Balance
World Out of Balance is a wake-up call to today’s chief executives, who
must work hard to seize the opportunities—and manage the risks—that
an increasingly complex global environment offers.
John Quelch, Senior Associate Dean for International Development
and Lincoln Filene Professor of Business Administration,
Harvard Business School
Stock movements, talent wars, competitors, regulatory requirements
and brand battles distract us from engaging the more fundamental forces
that shape our world. World Out of Balance provides a framework for
holding conflicting perspectives together and beginning to engage the
world again.
Sandra Dawson, Director, Judge Institute of Management,
KPMG Professor of Management Studies, and Master,
Sidney Sussex College, Cambridge University
Paul Laudicina persuasively argues that in the current era of uncertainty,
corporations should have a bold vision, and that now, more than ever,
strategic planning is of the essence. His book is must reading for CEOs,
political leaders, and others interested in our future!
Sebastian Edwards, Henry Ford II Chair in International Management,
and Professor, Business Economics, Anderson School of Management,
University of California, Los Angeles
Globalization was an intellectual bubble that burst on 9-11… strategic
planning was a wasteful fad of the 1980s… CEOs should leave public
policy debates to politicians and academics. Paul Laudicina dispels these
and other myths, drawing from his deep experience in both corporate
strategy and public policy.
Moises Naim, Editor, Foreign Policy Magazine
Real leaders live by the maxim “Value builders take charge of their own
destinies.”But they must know the forces that shape a world out of balance.
This book’s discussion of the drivers of global business in the twenty-first
century is indispensable preparation for the topsy-turvy world ahead.
Josef Joffe, Die Zeit
Once again the turn of the century marks incredible change. Govern-
ments and enterprises alike are wrestling with the challenges of adapting
their policies and strategies to emerging realities. This book will help to
guide us through the uncertainties. Building on his extensive experience
and constant learning in global developments, Paul Laudicina presents an
approach to strategic planning that will appeal to many.
Jan Oosterveld, Philips Electronics
Humans by their nature prefer balance, but it is imbalance that triggers
the search for better methods and new ventures. Paul Laudicina takes a
fresh look at turbulence in a complex world, encouraging us to think
beyond its random nature to the business opportunities it can present.
Carlos Represas, Chairman, Nestle´ Mexico, and former
Executive Vice President, Nestle´ S.A., Switzerland
Business can make the world a better place if it tackles challenges like
inclusion and sustainability. But it’s a long and perilous road to this sort
of stability. This book will help smooth the journey.
Kevin Roberts, Saatchi & Saatchi Worldwide
Capitalism is tough, as Paul Laudicina reminds us in this sobering and
challenging description of the world as it is. He concludes that today’s
perils and uncertainties are not just a temporary turbulence, and that
hunkering down and cutting costs are poor short-term substitutes for
brains, courage, and preparedness.
Brian Jenkins, Senior Advisor to the President, RAND Corporation
WORLD
OUT OF
BALANCE
Navigating Global Risks
to Seize Competitive Advantage
PAUL A. LAUDICINA
McGraw-Hill
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DOI: 10.1036/0071460594
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Contents
Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Preface xv
Introduction: A Call to Action 1
The Masters of Destiny 2
Taking on a World of Risk 5
Plotting a New Course 7
The Gas Pedal: Technology 8
The First Driver: Globalization 10
The Second Driver: Demographics 11
The Third Driver: The New Consumer 13
The Fourth Driver: Natural Resources and
the Environment 14
The Fifth Driver: Regulation and Activism 16
Scenarios and Wild Cards 17
Managing Risks in an Interdependent World 19
Chapter 1: Globalization: Two Steps Forward,
One Step Back 21
A (Very) Brief History 22
Industrialization unleashed 22
Modern globalization 23
It’s a Small World—and Getting Smaller 24
Economic integration 25
v
vi
Contents
Political globalization 27
The role of the individual 28
Living in a Globalized World 29
Looking deeper 30
Offshoring Revisited 31
Economic Nationalism and
Picking Favorites 32
The Invisible Hand 33
Devastating effects 35
Contagion at the Speed of Light 36
Hacker heaven 38
Globalization: Three Possible Scenarios 39
The rise of localization 39
Bilateral half-measures 41
Homo economicus 42
Chapter 2: Demographics: An Age of Extremes 45
A World Gone Gray 46
The baby bust 47
Brave Old World: The Impact of Global Aging 49
Social insecurity 51
Business takes a hit 52
Paying the Bill and Passing the Buck 53
No good options 54
Rewriting the Social Contract 56
The new import: purchasing power 58
Focusing on the family 59
Planning early, retiring late 60
The Youth Bulge: A Ticking Time Bomb? 61
The rise of the megacity 65
Assessing the Implications 67
Searching more shores 68
A new look at older workers 69
Controlling the healthcare cost spiral 70
Demographics: Three Possible Scenarios 71
Restless masses 72
Immigration queue 72
Global talent flow 73
Another paradox 74