What's Luck Got to Do with It?: The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gambler's Illusion

295 Pages·2010·4.62 MB·English

by  Joseph Mazur

Joseph Mazur
The History, Mathematics, and
Psychology behind the Gambler’s Illusion
princeton university press
princeton and oxford
Copyright © 2010 by Joseph Mazur
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Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data
Mazur, Joseph.
What’s luck got to do with it? : the history, mathematics, and
psychology behind the gambler’s illusion / Joseph Mazur.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978- 0- 691- 13890- 9 (hardcover : alk. paper)
1. Games of chance (Mathematics) 2. Chance—
Psychological aspects. 3. Gambling—Social aspects.
I. Title.
QA271.M39 2010
519.2'7 —dc22
2009045799
British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available
This book has been composed in ITC New Baskerville
Printed on acid- free paper. ∞
press.princeton.edu
Printed in the United States of America
1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2

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if by saying that a Man has had good Luck‚
nothing more was meant than that he has
been generally a Gainer at play‚ the expres-
sion might be allowed as very proper in a
short way of speaking: But if the Word Good
Luck be understood to signify a certain pre-
dominant quality‚ so inherent in a Man‚ that he
must win whenever he plays‚ or at least win
oftener than lose‚ it may be denied that there
is any such thing in nature.
—abraham de Moivre‚
the doctrine of chances (1716)1
you cannot win you cannot lose
if you do not play. if you do not play.
—proberb —the Wire
(Marla daniels)
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Introduction xi
part i: the history
Chapter 1. Pits, Pebbles, and Bones
Rolling to Discover Fate 3
Chapter 2. The Professionals
Luck Becomes Measurable 19
Chapter 3. From Coffeehouses to Casinos
Gaming Becomes Big Business 37
Chapter 4. There’s No Stopping It Now
From Bans to Bookies 46
Chapter 5. Betting with Trillions
The 2008 World Economic Calamity 58
part ii: the MatheMatics
Chapter 6. Who’s Got a Royal Flush?
One Deal as Likely as Another 75
Chapter 7. The Behavior of a Coin
Making Predictions with Probability 83