Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Division

44 Pages·2015·4.92 MB·English

C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A L Y S I S
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,
DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Division
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of January 1, 2015
Morgan Maryland Washington Carroll Baltimore Harford Housing Market Area
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the HMA is divided into four submarkets: (1) the District
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the counties and independent cities in Virginia nearest
King George
St. Mary's
Orange
to Washington, D.C.; and (4) the Remainder submarket,
Spotsylvania
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areas included in each submarket.
Summary
Economy sector eclipsed the government sector Rental Market
as the largest employment sector in
The economy of the Washington Rental housing market conditions
the HMA.
HMA recovered quickly following are soft in the District of Columbia
the national recession that began in submarket and slightly soft in the
Sales Market
2007 and ended in 2009, helped by Maryland Counties submarket but
increases in federal spending and Sales housing market conditions are balanced in the Arlington-Fairfax
tourism. Nonfarm payr olls surpassed remain slightly soft in the Maryland and Remainder submarkets. Apart-
their prerecession peak in 2011, but Counties submarket but are balanced ment conditions in the HMA were
job growth has slowed recently. Pay - in the District of Columbia, Arlington- slightly soft in 2009 but tightened
rolls during 2014 were up by 11,000 Fairfax, and Remainder submarkets. significantly during the next 3 years;
jobs, or 0.4 percent, from a year earlier. Although sales of new and existing by 2012, apartment conditions in the
During the 3-year forecast period, homes in the HMA decreased 6 per- HMA were slightly tight. In the past
payrolls are expected to increase by cent from a year earlier in 2014, home 2 years, the supply of new apartments
nearly 34,000 jobs, or 1.3 percent, sales prices increased nearly 4 percent, entering the market has outpaced de-
a year. Within the past 3 years, the to average approximately $440,100. mand in certain submarkets. During
professional and business services During the next 3 years, demand is the 3-year forecast period, demand is
expected for 45,200 new homes expected for 20,950 new market-rate
Market Details
(Table 2). The 5,250 homes under rental units (Table 2).
Economic Conditions .........................2 construction and a portion of the
42,500 other vacant units that may
Population and Households ...............9
return to the market will likely satisfy
Housing Market Trends ....................16
some of the demand.
Data Profiles .....................................42
Summary Continued
2
Table 1. Geographic Components of the Washington HMA
Geographic Entity Submarket Geographic Entity Submarket
S
I
S District of Columbia, DC District of Columbia Fauquier County, VA Remainder
Y
L Calvert County, MD Maryland Counties Loudoun County, VA Remainder
A
N Charles County, MD Maryland Counties Prince William County, VA Remainder
A Prince George’s County, MD Maryland Counties Spotsylvania County, VA Remainder

T Arlington County, VA Arlington-Fairfax Stafford County, VA Remainder
E
K Fairfax County, VA Arlington-Fairfax Warren County, VA Remainder
R Alexandria City, VA Arlington-Fairfax Fredericksburg City, VA Remainder
A
M Fairfax City, VA Arlington-Fairfax Manassas City, VA Remainder
Falls Church City, VA Arlington-Fairfax Manassas Park City, VA Remainder
G
N Clarke County, VA Remainder Jefferson County, WV Remainder
I
S Notes: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Division components as of December 2009. Excludes
U
Montgomery and Frederick Counties in Maryland, which are included in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-
O
H WV Metropolitan Statistical Area.

E
V Table 2. Housing Demand in the Washington HMA During the Forecast Period
I
S
N Washington District of Columbia Maryland Counties Arlington-Fairfax Remainder
E HMA Submarket Submarket Submarket Submarket
H
E Sales Rental Sales Rental Sales Rental Sales Rental Sales Rental
R
P Units Units Units Units Units Units Units Units Units Units
M
O Total demand 45,200 20,950 5,500 7,300 8,900 2,500 11,400 6,450 19,400 4,700
C
Under
5,250 10,400 800 4,550 1,900 550 800 5,200 1,750 100
(cid:127) construction

n
o Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast
i
s period. Units under construction as of January 1, 2015. A portion of the estimated 42,500 other vacant units in the HMA
i MMeettrrooppoolliittaann DDiivviissiioonn
v will likely satisfy some of the forecast demand. Includes an estimated demand for 1,500 mobile homes in the HMA. The
i
D forecast period is January 1, 2015, to January 1, 2018.
n Source: Estimates by analyst
a
t
i
l
o
p
o
Economic Conditions
r
t
e
M

V
W
- T
D
M he economy of the Washington 17,600 and 13,200 jobs, or 13.2 and
- HMA has been expanding since 5.1 percent, respectively. Payrolls in
A
V early 2010. The national recession each sector had been declining since
-
C
that began in 2007 and ended in 2009 the end of 2006 and 2007, respectively.
D
, caused a decline in employment in the Helping to mitigate the impact of the
a
ri HMA, but the economy rebounded downturn, federal spending increased
d
n swiftly. Nonfarm payrolls in the HMA and the healthcare and education
a
x
e peaked in 2008, at 2.43 million jobs, industries in the HMA continued to
l
A but, in 2009, payrolls decreased by grow during the recession. From 2006
-
n
approximately 36,100 jobs, or 1.5 per- through 2008, federal government
o
t
g cent, to fewer than 2.40 million jobs. outlays averaged approximately $2.9
n
li Declines in construction activity and trillion but increased 18 percent in
r
A
consumer spending contributed to the 2009, averaging $3.5 trillion from 2009
-
n
o job losses. The greatest decreases in through 2011 (Office of Management
t
g 2009 occurred in the mining, logging, and Budget). Spending increased
n
i
h and construction and the wholesale and because of rising demands for govern-
s
Wa retail trade sectors, which declined by ment assistance during the recession
Economic Conditions Continued
3
and because of stimulus spending, sector, which grew by an average of
including the $816 billion funded 18,300 jobs, or 3.7 percent, annually.
S
I through the American Recovery and
S Although the economy expanded at
Y Reinvestment Act (ARRA). In 2009,
L a relatively strong rate from the end
A payrolls in the federal government
N of 2010 through 2012, the growth
A subsector and the education and health
T moderated in 2014. Annual growth in
E services sector increased by 10,800
K nonfarm payrolls averaged 1.5 percent
R and 8,700 jobs, or 3.6 and 3.3 percent,
A during 2011 and 2012, but job growth
M respectively. The economy began to
began to slow in 2013, partly because
G recover in 2010 and, by 2011, nonfarm
N of the delayed effects of across-the-
I payrolls in the HMA had surpassed
S board federal spending cuts mandated
U their previous peak. From the end of
O by the Budget Control Act of 2011
H 2009 through 2014, nonfarm payrolls
(also known as sequestration). In addi-
E grew by an average of 24,600 jobs,
V tion, ARRA spending began expiring
SI or 1.0 percent, annually. The greatest
N after 2011. During 2012 and 2013,
E payroll increases during the current
H federal government outlays decreased
E expansion occurred in the education
R by an average of $125 billion, or 3.6
P and health services, leisure and hospi-
M percent, a year. The spending cuts
O tality, and professional and business
had a negative impact on the HMA
C
services sectors, which grew by ap-

(cid:127) economy, the direct effects of which
proximately 7,600, 7,000, and 5,400
n
o included declines in federal govern-
i jobs, or 2.8, 3.3, and 1.0 percent, a
s ment payrolls beginning in 2012. The
vi yMMearee, ttrerrsoopeppcootivlleiilytt.aa Dnnu rDDingii vvthiiess piirooevnnious
i spending cuts indirectly led to job
D
expansion, from the end of 2001
n losses at firms reliant on government
a through 2008, nonfarm payrolls in
t contracts, especially in industries such
li the HMA increased by an average of
o as business consulting and information
p 42,450 jobs, or 1.9 percent, annually.
o
technology. During 2014, nonfarm
r
t More than 40 percent of the jobs
e payrolls in the HMA averaged 2.52
M
added during that period were in the
million jobs, an increase of approxi-
V
professional and business services
W mately 11,000 jobs, or 0.4 percent,
-
D Table 3. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Washington from a year earlier. Although payrolls
M
HMA, by Sector in the leisure and hospitality, the min-
-
A
V 12 Months Ending ing, logging, and construction, and
- Absolute Percent
C December December Change Change the wholesale and retail trade sectors
D 2013 2014
increased, payrolls in the professional

a, Total nonfarm payroll jobs 2,507,200 2,518,200 11,000 0.4
i and business services, government,
r Goods-producing sectors 145,400 148,800 3,400 2.3
d manufacturing, and information
n Mining, logging, & construction 113,500 119,000 5,500 4.8
a
x Manufacturing 31,900 29,800 – 2,100 – 6.6 sectors declined (Table 3). Within the
e Service-providing sectors 2,361,800 2,369,400 7,600 0.3
l professional and business services
A
Wholesale & retail trade 258,200 262,400 4,200 1.6
n- Transportation & utilities 55,000 54,900 – 100 – 0.2 sector, payrolls in the professional,
o
t Information 62,200 60,400 – 1,800 – 2.9 scientific, and technical services
g
n Financial activities 111,500 114,700 3,200 2.9 industry (which includes many firms
i
l Professional & business services 583,400 579,000 – 4,400 – 0.8
r
A that provide business consulting and
Education & health services 312,000 314,100 2,100 0.7
-
n Leisure & hospitality 239,700 246,600 6,900 2.9 information technology services to
o
t Other services 158,900 160,000 1,100 0.7 government) declined by 6,500 jobs,
g
n Government 581,000 577,300 – 3,700 – 0.6
i or 1.6 percent. Within the government
h Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Based on 12-month
s
a averages through December 2013 and December 2014.
W
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Conditions Continued
4
sector, payrolls in the federal govern- 6.5 percent in 2010. The rate declined
ment subsector declined by 7,700 jobs, only gradually in the past 4 years
S
I or 2.4 percent, but those losses were (Figure 1). The unemployment rate
S
Y partially offset by increases in the state in the HMA remained below the U.S.
L
A and local government subsectors of average, however, which peaked in
N
A 2,800 and 1,100 jobs, respectively. 2010 at 9.6 percent before declining to

T
E 6.2 percent in 2014.
K The unemployment rate in the HMA
R
A averaged 5.1 percent during 2014, The federal government remains the
M
down from 5.5 percent a year earlier. largest single employer in the Wash-
G
N In general, the unemployment rate in ington HMA, accounting for nearly
I
S the HMA historically has been much 13 percent of total nonfarm payrolls,
U
O lower than the national average, partly or approximately 315,100 jobs in 2014.
H
because of the economic stability con- During the past three decades, how-
E
V ferred by the large federal government ever, the economy has become more
I
S
N presence. From 2000 through 2008, diversified, and 95 percent of the job
E
H the unemployment rate in the HMA growth has occurred in the private sec-
E
R averaged 3.5 percent, compared with tor. In 1980, government at all levels
P
M the national average of 5.1 percent. accounted for nearly 35 percent of
O
During the 2007-to-2009 recession, nonfarm payrolls in the HMA, but, by
C

(cid:127) however, the unemployment rate in 2014, that share had declined to less

n
o the HMA rose sharply, and peaked at than 23 percent. In part, the stronger
i
s private-sector job growth reflects a
vi Figure 1. T rends in Labor Force, ResidMMentee Ettrrmooppploooyllmiiettnaatnn, a DDndii Uvvniisseiimoopnnloy-
i greater reliance by government on
D ment Rate in the Washington HMA, 2000 Through 2014
n outsourcing to contractors to perform
a 2,785,000 10.0
Metropolit Labor force and esident employment 2221,,,,531988885555,,,,000000000000 8642....0000 Unemployment rate cractoeeosc rrtaetpha nhoeitn er daya fiteduviaoqenrrnucss,sati ,ifrt oihwtcneeahrs ts.Hii coIlMohnnc haAaodatf isd hot ichantosie o fn eoentmcrr, o imiebnnruao gtjemeoddry .
WV r 1,785,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.0 Since 2008, companies that have relo-
-
D Labor force Resident employment Unemployment rate cated their corporate headquarters to
M
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the HMA include Volkswagen Group
-
A
V of America, Inc.; Northrop Grum-
Table 4. Major Nonfederal Employers in the Washington HMA
-
C man Corporation; Hilton Worldwide,
D Number of
Name of Employer Nonfarm Payroll Sector Inc.; Computer Sciences Corporation;
Employees
,
a
i Inova Health System Education & health services 15,200 and SAIC, Inc. (Greater Washington
r
d Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc. Professional & business services 13,900 Board of Trade, 2013 Regional Re -
n
a University of Maryland, College Park Government 13,700
x port). The largest private employers in
e Northrop Grumman Corp. Manufacturing 13,300
l the HMA are listed in Table 4. Partly
A Washington Metropolitan Area Government 12,300
n- Transit Authority because of growth in government con-
o Giant Food LLC Wholesale & retail trade 11,200
t tracting and an expanded presence of
g Verizon Communications, Inc. Information 11,000
n
i General Dynamics Corp. Manufacturing 8,100 corporate headquarters, the professional
l
Ar Deloitte LLP Professional & business services 7,700 and business services sector surpassed
- Safeway, Inc. Wholesale & retail trade 7,400
n the government sector as the largest
o Hilton Worldwide, Inc. Leisure & hospitality 7,200
t job sector in the HMA in 2012 and
g Notes: Excludes local school districts. Includes employers located in the HMA (excludes
n
i employers in the Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, MD Metropolitan Division), but number currently accounts for 23 percent of
h
as oMfe etrmopploolyiteaens Ssthaotwisnt iacrael Aforer at.h eE xecnlutidrees Wfeadsheirnagl tgoonv–eArrnlimngetnotn a–gAelenxcaiensd.r ia, DC–VA–MD–WV nonfarm payrolls (Figure 2).
W
Source: Washington Business Journal, 2014 Book of Lists.
Economic Conditions Continued
5
Figure 2. Current Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Washington HMA, by Sector
Mining, logging, & construction 4.7%
S
I Manufacturing 1.2%
S Government 22.9%
Y Wholesale & retail trade 10.4%
L
A Transportation & utilities 2.2%
N
Information 2.4%
A
Financial activities 4.6%
T
E Other services 6.4%
K
R
A
M Leisure & hospitality 9.8%
Professional & business services 23.0%
G
N
Education & health services 12.5%
I
S
U Note: Based on 12-month averages through December 2014.
O
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
H

E
V Proximity to federal agencies is a fac- Home Builders; AARP, Inc.; and the
I
S tor influencing the relocation decisions American Red Cross. As an industry,
N
E
of some companies, but the HMA also these activities are classified within
H
E has other strengths as a headquarters the other services sector. During the
R
P
location: a highly educated and diverse last recession, a nationwide decline
M
O workforce, including many foreign- in charitable donations led to budget
C
born residents; the presence of major cuts at many organizations. Payrolls
(cid:127)

n colleges and universities, including in the other services sector in the HMA
o
si several research institutions; and access decreased by 1,100 jobs, or 0.7 percent,
i MMeettrrooppoolliittaann DDiivviissiioonn
v
i to international airports providing annually from 2008 through 2010.
D
connectivity to domestic and interna- Funding for nonprofit organizations
n
a
t tional markets. As a result, industry began to recover in 2011 and payrolls
i
l
o clusters have developed in the HMA in the other services sector increased
p
o since 2000, including firms in the from 2011 through 2014 by about
r
t
e aerospace, defense and intelligence, 2,100 jobs, or 1.4 percent, a year, to
M
cybersecurity, information systems, an average of 160,000 jobs in 2014.
V
W biotechnology, transportation and As the economy improves during the
D- logistics, and leisure and hospitality forecast period, funding for charitable
M
industries (Metropolitan Washington and advocacy organizations is expected
-
A
Council of Governments, Economy to continue to increase, leading to
V
C- Forward, September 2012). Despite moderate payroll gains in the HMA
D
recent job losses in the professional in the other services sector.

,
a and technical services industries caused
ri With nearly 400,000 college and
d by federal spending cuts, the expand-
n university students, the HMA has one
a ing presence of corporate headquar-
x of the largest college and university
e
l ters in the HMA is expected to lead
A student populations in the nation. The
- to job growth in the professional and
n
HMA includes more than 70 institu-
o
business services sector during the
t
g tions of higher education; the largest,
n forecast period.
li ranked by enrollment, are listed in
r
A
The HMA is also the national head- Table 5. Institutions of higher educa-
-
n
o quarters location for many nonprofit tion in the HMA have a combined
t
g charitable and advocacy organizations, economic impact of approximately
n
i
h including the National Geographic $10 billion a year on the HMA (ana-
s
Wa Society; the National Association of lyst’s estimate). Partly because of
Economic Conditions Continued
6
Table 5. Largest Institutions of Higher Education in the Washington HMA
Institution Name Institution Type Location Enrollment
S
I
S Northern Virginia Community College Public Springfield, VA 51,803
Y
L University of Maryland University College Public Adelphi, MD 39,683
A
University of Maryland, College Park Public College Park, MD 37,272
N
A George Mason University Public Fairfax, VA 33,917

T George Washington University Private Washington, DC 25,264
E
Georgetown University Private Washington, DC 17,849
K
R Prince George’s Community College Public Kettering, MD 13,733
A
American University Private Washington, DC 12,817
M
Howard University Private Washington, DC 10,297
G
N Catholic University of America Private Washington, DC 6,725
I
S Notes: Enrollment as of fall 2013. Totals for Northern Virginia Community College and Prince George’s Community College
U include full- and part-time students.
O
H Sources: College and university fact sheets; offices of institutional research; “A Profile of Higher Education Institutions in
the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Area,” George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis (May 2014 working paper)
E
V
I
S the recession, college and university year earlier. During the next 3 years,
N
E enrollment in the HMA increased as the economy continues to improve,
H
E from 2008 to 2012 by nearly 16,000 enrollment at colleges and universities
R
P students, or 4.4 percent, a year (Ameri- in the HMA is expected to remain
M
O can Community Survey, 1-year esti- stable or to continue decreasing slightly.
C
mates). After peaking at a pproximately As a result, the recent strong job growth
(cid:127)

n 407,200 students in 2012, enrollment in the colleges, universities, and pro-
o
si declined in 2013 by nearly 13,000 stu- fessional schools industry is not
i MMeettrrooppoolliittaann DDiivviissiioonn
v dents, or 3.2 percent, to approximately expected to continue.
i
D
394,300 students. Payrolls in the colleges,
n The military has a significant presence
a universities, and professional schools
t
i in the HMA. Several large facilities
ol industry (which includes private edu-
p in the HMA include the Pentagon in
o cational institutions within the educa-
r Arlington, Virginia; the U.S. Marine
et tion and health services sector) grew
M Corps Base in Quantico, Virginia; and
at a strong pace from 2000 through

V Andrews Air Force Base in Prince
W 2013, increasing by an average of
George’s County, Maryland, with ap-
D- nearly 1,750 jobs, or 4.9 percent, a
proximately 27,000, 18,400, and 11,400
M year. Despite the recent enrollment
- military and civilian personnel, respec-
A declines, job growth strengthened.
V tively. The largest facilities in the HMA,
- During 2014, payrolls in the industry
C
ranked by total military and civilian
D averaged 58,800 jobs, an increase of
personnel, are listed in Table 6. From
,
a 5,800 jobs, or 11.0 percent, from a
i
r
d
n Table 6. Largest Military Facilities in the Washington HMA
a
x
e Base Name Location Military Personnel Total Personnel
l
A
Pentagon Arlington, VA 8,050 27,000
-
n Marine Corps Base Quantico Prince William County, VA 7,450 18,400
o
t Fort Belvoir Fairfax County, VA 4,200 12,900
g
n Andrews Air Force Base Prince George’s County, MD 4,600 11,400
i
rl Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling District of Columbia 3,500 9,900
A
Washington Naval District Headquarters District of Columbia 3,250 8,850
-
n Fort Myer Arlington, VA 2,300 5,650
o
t Marine Barracks Washington D.C. District of Columbia 1,700 3,900
g
n Fort Leslie J. McNair District of Columbia 850 2,900
i
h Indian Head Naval Ordnance Station Charles County, MD 750 2,000
s
a
W Note: Total military and civilian personnel levels as of June 2014.
Source: Defense Manpower Data Center Reporting System
Economic Conditions Continued
7
2000 to 2010, military personnel in Arlington, Virginia, also attracts
levels in the HMA increased from approximately 4 million visitors a year.
S
I approximately 32,200 to 37,300, or by In addition to being a tourist destina-
S
Y approximately 500 a year. Since 2010, tion, the HMA is a major destination
L
A the number of military personnel in for business travelers, who account
N
A the HMA has increased by less than for more than 40 percent of domestic

T
E 200 a year, to 38,100 in June 2014 visitors to the District of Columbia.
K
R (Defense Manpower Data Center Re- Business travel has expanded with the
A
M porting System). Combined military emergence of the HMA as a corporate

G and civilian defense personnel levels headquarters location. From 2000
N
I have increased by about 1,250 a year through 2008, payrolls in the leisure
S
U since 2010, to approximately 107,200 and hospitality sector in the HMA
O
H in 2014. Despite recent proposals to increased by an average of 5,150 jobs,

E reduce future defense spending, during or 2.7 percent, a year, but, in 2009,
V
SI the next 3 years, military and civilian payrolls decreased by 2,500 jobs, or
N
E defense personnel levels in the HMA 1.2 percent. The sector began to recover
H
E are expected to remain relatively stable. in 2010 and, from the end of 2009
R
P through 2013, payrolls in the sector
M As a result of increases in college and
O increased by an average of nearly
university enrollment and military
C
7,000 jobs, or 3.3 percent, a year. Lei-

(cid:127) personnel levels since 2008, institutions
sure and hospitality sector payrolls
n
o of higher education and the military
i averaged 246,600 jobs during 2014, an
s have added significantly to the supply
vi MMeettrrooppoolliittaann DDiivviissiioonn increase of 6,900 jobs, or 2.9 percent,
i of group quarters housing in the HMA
D
from a year earlier. As of result of the
n in the form of new dormitories and
a strong job growth since 2000, the lei-
t barracks. These projects are described
li sure and hospitality sector accounted
o in greater detail in the rental housing
p for nearly 10 percent of nonfarm
o
market sections of each submarket.
r
t payrolls in the HMA in 2014, up from
e
M
With numerous museums, monuments, 8 percent in 2000. Figure 3 shows pay-

V
and historic sites, the Washington roll growth by nonfarm sector in the
W
- HMA is a major tourist destination, HMA from 2000 to the current date.
D
M and the tourism industry has experi- During the next 3 years, the leisure
A- enced strong growth since 2009. Several and hospitality sector is expected
V
of the most visited sites are in the Dis- to continue to be among the fastest
-
C
D trict of Columbia and include the U.S. growing payroll sectors in the HMA.

, Capitol; the White House; museums Because of growth in the number of
a
i
r near the National Mall, such as the visitors, more than 15 new hotels, with
d
n
a Smithsonian Institution; and monu- more than 2,700 rooms, are currently
x
e ments, such as the Lincoln Memorial, under construction in the HMA, includ-
l
A
the Jefferson Memorial, the Martin ing a 270-room Trump I nternational
-
n
o Luther King, Jr. Memorial, and the Hotel in Washington, D.C.; a 300-
t
g Washington Monument. The District room Hyatt Regency Hotel in McLean,
n
i
l of Columbia received a record 19.0 Virginia; and a 300-room MGM
r
A
- million visitors in 2013, up from 16.3 National Harbor Casino and Resort
n
o million visitors in 2009, and visitor in Oxon Hill, Maryland. All these
t
g
n spending totaled $6.7 billion in 2013, projects are expected to be complete
i
h up from $5.3 billion in 2009 (Destina- during the next 3 years.
s
a
W tion DC). Arlington National Cemetery
Economic Conditions Continued
8
Figure 3. Sector Growth in the Washington HMA, Percentage Change, 2000 to Current
S
I Total nonfarm payroll jobs
S
Y Goods-producing sectors
L
A
Mining, logging, & construction
N
A Manufacturing

T
E Service-providing sectors
K
R Wholesale & retail trade
A
M Transportation & utilities

G Information
N
I Financial activities
S
U
Professional & business services
O
H Education & health services

E
Leisure & hospitality
V
I
S Other services
N
E Government
H
E – 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
R
P Note: Current is based on 12-month averages through December 2014.
M
O Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C

(cid:127)

n Health care is an important economic decline, payrolls in the healthcare and
o
si activity in the HMA and includes the social assistance subsector are expected
i MMeettrrooppoolliittaann DDiivviissiioonn
v largest private employer, Inova Health to grow during the next 3 years as the
i
D
System. As the population of the HMA population of the HMA continues to
n
a expanded since 2001, payrolls in the increase. Dimensions Healthcare Sys-
t
i
ol healthcare and social assistance subsec- tems and the University of Maryland
p
o tor increased. From the end of 2001 Medical Center recently partnered to
r
et through 2006, payrolls in the subsec- build the proposed Prince George’s
M
tor grew by approximately 3,500 jobs, Regional Medical Center in Largo

V
W or 2.1 percent, a year. From 2007 Town Center in Prince George’s
D- through 2013, payrolls in the subsector County, at an estimated cost of $655
M grew at a significantly faster rate of million. The 259-bed hospital is ex -
-
A 5,900 jobs, or 3.1 percent, a year, re - pected to open in 2017 or 2018.
V
- flecting the strong population growth
C
Residential and nonresidential con-
D during that period. In 2014, the sub-
struction activity in the HMA peaked
,
a sector accounted for nearly 9 percent
ri in 2006, but the construction industry
d of nonfarm payrolls in the HMA, up
n was especially hard hit in the last re-
a from 7 percent in 2000. Payrolls de-
x cession, partly because of the housing
e clined in 2014, however, because of
l
A crisis that accompanied the downturn.
- layoffs at some local hospitals, includ-
n From the end of 2006 through 2010,
o ing Howard University Hospital and
gt payrolls in the mining, logging, and
n MedStar Washington Hospital Center.
i construction sector declined by an
l
r During 2014, payrolls in the health-
A average of nearly 9,900 jobs, or 6.6
- care and social assistance subsector
n
o percent, a year. A modest recovery
t averaged approximately 215,100 jobs,
g began in 2011. From the end of 2010
n a decrease of 1,600 jobs, or 0.7 percent,
hi through 2013, payrolls in the mining,
s from a year earlier. Despite the recent
a
W
Economic Conditions Continued
9
logging, and construction sector in- averaged approximately 119,000 jobs,
creased by an average 1,500 jobs, or an increase of 5,500 jobs, or 4.8 per-
S
I 1.4 percent, a year. Job growth strength- cent, from a year earlier.
S
Y ened recently, helped by increases in
L During the next 3 years, the economy
A nonresidential construction, including
N of the HMA is expected to continue
A a $2.7-billion extension of the Metro-
T expanding at a moderate pace. Non-
E rail Silver Line in western Fairfax and
K farm payrolls are expected to increase
R eastern Loudoun Counties, which is
A by an average of nearly 34,000 jobs,
M expected to be complete in 2018. In
or 1.3 percent, a year. Job growth is
G addition, population growth since
N expected to be strongest in the leisure
I 2008 has placed greater demands on
S and hospitality sector and the construc-
U the transportation infrastructure in
O tion subsector. Because of an uncertain
H the HMA, leading to increased spend-
outlook for federal spending, which
E ing on roads and bridges. Transporta-
V includes defense spending and gov-
SI tion projects nearing completion or
N ernment contracting, the government,
E expected to be completed within the
H the professional and business services,
E next 3 years include $925 million to
R and the information sectors are not
P add HOV/HOT (high-occupancy
M expected to contribute as much to job
O vehicle/high-occupancy toll) lanes to
growth. Modest growth is expected in
C
Interstate 95 (I-95) in Fairfax County,

(cid:127) the education and health services sec-
Virginia; $352 million to renovate and
n
o tor. Decreases in college and university
i modernize the 11th Street Bridge in
s enrollment may lead to flat job growth
vi WMMaseehttinrrgootoppnoo, llDii.ttCaa.;nn an DDd $ii9vv7ii mssiiiloolionnn
i or payroll declines in the education
D
to upgrade the interchange of U.S.
n services subsector, but any losses in
a Route 29 and Linton Hall Road in
t that subsector will likely be offset by
li Prince William County, Virginia.
o payrolls gains in the healthcare and
p During 2014, payrolls in the mining,
o
social assistance subsector.
r
t logging, and construction sector
e
M

V
W
D- Population and Households
M
-
A
V
-
C
T
D
he current population of the that period, net in-migration accounted
,
a
i Washington HMA is estimated for a larger share of population growth,
r
d
n at 4.74 million, an increase of approx- averaging more than 38,000 people a
a
x imately 77,050, or 1.7 percent, a year year, or nearly 60 percent of the total,
e
l
A since 2010. Net natural increase (resi- whereas net natural increase averaged
-
n dent births minus resident deaths) 26,900 people a year (Figure 4). The
o
gt accounted for more than 50 percent components of net migration (in-
n
i of the growth, averaging 39,450 people migration and out-migration) in the
l
r
A a year, whereas net in-migration aver- HMA tend to be large, because many
-
n aged 37,600 people a year. From 2000 people enter or leave the area each
o
t
g to 2010, by comparison, the population year. In part, the mobility rate is high
n
hi of the HMA increased by approximately because the HMA includes many
s
a 64,950, or 1.6 percent, a year. During educational and military institutions
W
Population and Households Continued
10
Figure 4. Components of Population Change in the Washington HMA,
2000 to Forecast
S
I 40,000
S
Y 35,000
L
A ge 30,000
N an
A ch 25,000
al
T nu 20,000
E an
RK age 15,000
MA Aver 10,000
5,000
G
N 0
2000 to 2010 2010 to current Current to forecast
I
S
U Net natural change Net migration
O
H Notes: The current date is January 1, 2015. The forecast date is January 1, 2018.

E Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast—
V estimates by analyst
I
S
N
E and has regular changes in political averaged more than 4,400 people a
H
E administrations. In addition, the HMA year from 2005 to 2010. In part, the
R
P serves as an initial point of entry into rise in net in-migration reflected the
M
O the United States for many foreign- gentrification of areas in the central
C
born residents (George Mason Uni- and eastern parts of the city and an

(cid:127)
versity Center for Regional Analysis, increased perception among young
n
o
i December 2013 working paper). adults that Washington, D.C., is a
s
i MMeettrrooppoolliittaann DDiivviissiioonn
v From 2010 to 2013, in-migration desirable place to live. From 2000 to
i
D
to the metropolitan area averaged 2012, the number of college gradu-

n
a more than 280,000 people a year, and ates ages 25 to 34 years old in the
t
li out-migration averaged more than Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,
o
p 240,000 people a year (American DC-VA-MD-WV metropolitan area
o
r
t Community Survey, 1-year estimates). increased from 7.2 to 8.1 percent of
e
M
As a result, relatively small shifts in the total population (October 2014

V
the rates of in- or out-migration can City Observatory report: The Young
W
- have large impacts on population and Restless and the Nation’s Cities).
D
M growth in the HMA, particularly in Much of the growth in this demo-
A- individual submarkets such as the graphic group occurred in the District
V
District of Columbia. of Columbia. In 2010, an estimated
-
C
D 77,650 college-educated young people
In the District of Columbia submar-

, lived in close-in urban neighborhoods
a
i ket, population growth from 2000 to
r in the HMA (defined as being within
d
2010 averaged less than 3,000 people,
n
a 3 miles of downtown Washington,
x or 0.5 percent, a year. Whereas net
e D.C.), a 75-percent increase from
Al natural increase averaged more than
2000. This increase was the greatest
n- 2,500 people a year, net in-migration
o in college-educated young people liv-
t averaged only about 450 people a year
g ing in close-in urban neighborhoods
n
i during the decade. From 2001 to 2005
l among all metropolitan areas in the
r
A (based on Census Bureau estimates
- nation. Since 2010, the population of
n as of July 1 each year), net migration
o the District of Columbia has increased
gt was negative, with net out-migration
n at a much faster rate than it had dur-
i averaging nearly 3,900 people a year.
h ing the previous decade, led by rising
as The migration trend reversed later
W net-in-migration, with population
in the decade, and net in-migration