University of Groningen The population of Indonesia Muhidin, Salahudin

358 Pages·2017·7 MB·English

T P I
HE OPULATION OF NDONESIA
The book series Population Studies aims at disseminating results of research on population
trends, in the broadest sense.

Series editorial board: Anton Oskamp, Ewa Tabeau & Harrie van Vianen.
In memory of Anton Kuijsten.

Manuscripts can be submitted to Rozenberg Publishers, Rozengracht 176A,
1016 NK Amsterdam, The Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected]

The following books have been published in the Population Studies series:
- Jiang Leiwen, Population and Sustainable Development in China. 1999. ISBN 90 5538 004 X
- Gijs Beets & Károly Miltény (eds.), Population Ageing in Hungary and the Netherlands;
A European perspective. 2000, ISBN 90 5170 506 9
- Henk Hilderink, World Population in Transition; An integrated regional modelling
framework. 2000, ISBN 90 5538 048 2
- Melinda Mills, The Transformation of Partnerships; Canada, The Netherlands, and The
Russian Federation in the age of modernity. 2000, ISBN 90 5170 526 3
- Willem Jan van der Veen, The Small Epidemiologic Transition; On infant survival and
childhood handicap in low-mortality countries. 2001, ISBN 90 5170 554 9
- Cecile Wijsen, Timing Children at a later Age; Motivational, behavioural, and socio-
structural differentials in the individual decision making process of older mothers. 2002,
ISBN 90 5170 588 3

ISBN 90 5170 596 4
NUR 630

© S. Muhidin, 2002

Cover design: .Spatie (puntspatie), Amsterdam

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NK Amsterdam. Tel.: (+) 31 20 625 54 29. Fax: (+) 31 20 620 33 95. E-mail:
[email protected]
Rijksuniversiteit Groningen

T P I
HE OPULATION OF NDONESIA

R D S
EGIONAL EMOGRAPHIC CENARIOS
M M
USING A ULTIREGIONAL ETHOD
M D S
AND ULTIPLE ATA OURCES

Proefschrift

ter verkrijging van het doctoraat in de
Ruimtelijke Wetenschappen
aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen
op gezag van de
Rector Magnificus, dr. D.F.J. Bosscher,
in het openbaar te verdedigen op
donderdag 2 mei 2002

om 14.15 uur

door

Salahudin Muhidin

geboren op 10 september 1970
te Jakarta, Indonesie
Promotores: Prof. dr. ir. F. J. Willekens
Prof. dr. A. Ananta

Beoordelingscommissie: Prof. dr. H. Birg
Prof. dr. C. H. Mulder
Prof. dr. L. J. G. van Wissen
to Aniek and Nadya
C
ONTENTS

Preface

Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1

1
1.1. Background
2
1.2. Demographic development in Indonesia: an overview
4
1.3. Methodological issues related to regional population projection
5
1.4. Research objectives
6
1.5. Organization of the book

Chapter 2 RECENT POPULATION DYNAMICS 9

9
2.1. Introduction
11
2.2. Regional population distribution
12
2.2.1. Size and growth of population
18
2.2.2. Structure and composition of population
22
2.3. Fertility
23
2.3.1. Total fertility rate (TFR)
25
2.3.2. Age-specific fertility rates (ASFR)
32
2.3.3. Determinants of fertility
37
2.4. Mortality
38
2.4.1. Infant mortality rate (IMR)
41
2.4.2. Adult mortality rates
45
2.4.3. Determinants of mortality
50
2.5. Migration
50
2.5.1. Internal migration
65
2.5.2. International migration
68
2.5.3. Reasons for migration
73
2.6. Conclusion

Chapter 3 POPULATION PROJECTIONS IN INDONESIA DURING
THE 20th CENTURY 75

75
3.1. Introduction
77
3.2. Projections in the 1960s
82
3.3. Projections in the 1970s
82
3.3.1. The ICBS projection
85
3.3.2. The LDUI projection
88
3.3.3. The LEKNAS-LIPI projection
89
3.3.4. Empirical results
94
3.4. Projections in the 1980s
94
3.4.1. The ICBS projection
97
3.4.2. The LDUI projection
100
3.4.3. The BKKBN projection
103
3.4.4. Empirical results
107
3.5. Projections in the 1990s
107
3.5.1. The ICBS projection
109
3.5.2. The LDUI projection
112
3.5.3. The PPK-UGM projection
113
3.5.4. Empirical results
116
3.6. Discussion
116
3.6.1. General characteristics
117
3.6.2. Base population
119
3.6.3. Fertility projection
120
3.6.4. Mortality projection
121
3.6.5. Migration projection
122
3.7. Conclusion

Chapter 4 SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA AND DATABASE
FOR PROJECTION 125

125
4.1. Introduction
126
4.2. Population census
127
4.2.1. Population enumeration
130
4.2.2. Variables covered
133
4.3. Sample surveys
135
4.3.1. Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS)
137
4.3.2. National Social and Economic Survey (SUSENAS)
140
4.3.3. Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS)
144
4.3.4. National Household Health Survey (SKRT)
146
4.3.5. Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS)
149
4.3.6. Regional surveys
150
4.4. Registration data
151
4.4.1. Role of the Ministry of Internal Affairs
153
4.4.2. Role of the National Family Planning Board/BKKBN
153
4.4.3. Role of the Ministry of Justice
155
4.4.4. Role of the Ministry of Religious Affairs
155
4.4.5. Role of the Ministry of Health
156
4.4.6. Role of the Central Bureau of Statistics
156
4.5. Database for projection
157
4.5.1. Types of data
158
4.5.2. Population database
160
4.5.3. Fertility database
161
4.5.4. Mortality database
162
4.5.5. Migration database
165
4.6. Conclusion
Chapter 5 MEASUREMENT OF RISK IN DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS 167

167
5.1. Introduction
168
5.2. Data observation
168
5.2.1. Observation plan
172
5.2.2. Events from different observation plans
175
5.2.3. Censoring
176
5.3. Risk measurement methods
177
5.3.1. Probability and rate
183
5.3.2. Assumption concerning occurrences of events and censoring
185
5.3.3. Probability and rate from the period-cohort data
187
5.4. Demographic events from census and surveys
187
5.4.1. Fertility
189
5.4.2. Mortality
190
5.4.3. Migration
191
5.5. Conclusion

Chapter 6 METHODS OF REGIONAL POPULATION PROJECTION 193

193
6.1. Introduction
194
6.2. Approaches to regional projection
194
6.2.1. Top-down approach
195
6.2.2. Bottom-up approach
195
6.2.3. Hybrid approach
196
6.2.4. Multiregional approach
197
6.3. Multiregional demographic analysis
199
6.3.1. Background and development of MUDEA
201
6.3.2. Characteristics of MUDEA model
202
6.3.3. Model description
210
6.4. Multiregional life table
210
6.4.1. Observation plan for life table
212
6.4.2. Estimation of life table probabilities
214
6.4.3. LIFEINDEC
216
6.5. Multiregional analysis for Indonesian data
216
6.5.1. Initial development of multiregional models in Indonesia
6.5.2. Estimation of migration intensities (instantaneous rates)
218
from migrant proportions
221
6.5.3. Numerical illustration
222
6.6. Conclusion

Chapter 7 CONSTRUCTION OF BASE INPUT DATA 223

223
7.1. Introduction
225
7.2. Demographic models
226
7.2.1. Model fertility schedule
229
7.2.2. Model mortality schedule
231
7.2.3. Model migration schedule
234
7.3. Base population data
240
7.4. Fertility estimation
241
7.4.1. Method
242
7.4.2. Empirical estimation
247
7.4.3. Regional fertility models
252
7.5. Mortality estimation
252
7.5.1. Infant mortality
257
7.5.2. Adult mortality
268
7.5.3. Regional mortality models
271
7.6. Migration estimation
271
7.6.1. Internal migration
276
7.6.2. International migration
279
7.7. Conclusion

Chapter 8 SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS 281

281
8.1. Introduction
282
8.2. Theoretical framework
282
8.2.1. Demographic transition (fertility and mortality)
283
8.2.2. Mobility transition
285
8.2.3. Demographic and socioeconomic changes
286
8.3. Population scenarios
287
8.3.1. Fertility assumptions
293
8.3.2. Mortality assumptions
299
8.3.3. Migration assumptions
300
8.3.4. Scenarios
301
8.4. Results: population projections
302
8.4.1. Size and growth of population
308
8.4.2. Structure and composition of population
312
8.4.3. Regional demographic indicators
320
8.5. Conclusion

Chapter 9 CONCLUSIONS 321

321
9.1. Introduction
321
9.2. Demographic analysis in Indonesia
323
9.3. Methodological advancement in population projections
325
9.4. Concluding remarks

REFERENCES 326
SUMMARY (IN DUTCH) 341
T P I
HE OPULATION OF NDONESIA

REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIOS
USING A MULTIREGIONAL METHOD
AND MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES

Salahudin Muhidin

2002