Transportation for the Future

266 Pages·1989·7.496 MB·English

by  David F. Batten, Roland Thord (auth.), Professor Dr. David F. Batten, Dr. Roland Thord (eds.)

David F. Batten . Roland Thord (Eds.)
Transportation
for the Future
With Contributions by
A. E. Andersson, D. F. Batten, D. E. Boyce, G. C. Eads
S. Ericsson, R. L. French, H. Fujii, W. L. Garrison
J. Grevsmahl, T. Karlsson, K. Krell, N. Nakicenovic
D. Nasman, C. Nicolin, H. St. Seidenfus, J. van Stappen
U. Stromquist, R. Thord
With 58 Figures
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York
London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong
Professor Dr. David F. Batten, Centre for Regional Science Research and
Department of Economics, University of Umea, S-901 87 Umea, Sweden
Dr. Roland Thord, Thmaplan AB, Applied Systems Analysis for Industry
and Government, Sandhamnsgatan 81, S-115 28 Stockholm, Sweden
ISBN-13: 978-3-642-74868-4 e-ISBN -13: 978-3-642-74866-0
DOl: 10.1007/978-3-642-74866-0
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the mate
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© by Springer-Verlag Berlin· Heidelberg 1989
Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1st edition 1989
The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the
absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws
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214217130-543210
PREFACE
During the seventies and eighties, we have witnessed some profound changes in
those industries associated with the transportation of goods and people. The
quickening pace of technological change, with its expanding emphasis on
telecommunications, knowledge handling capacity, and air transportation, has
increased the discrete character of the world economy. This means that the
network structure of global development patterns is of growing importance, with
metropolitan centres as key nodes and rapid transportation paths as key links.
In this evolutionary situation, changes in the preferred mix of transportation
modes are inevitable. The faster and more direct modes will be favoured,
individually and in combination. Changes in transportation logistics are also of
growing significance. As one manager of a Swedish systems-oriented corporation
reported in a recent interview: "Our aim is to extend our conveyor belt across all
the highways of Europe". This also implies an increased interest from systems
oriented corporations in public transportation policies and the provision of
infrastructure.
This volume contains a collection of papers presented at the First International
Conference on Transportation Jor the Future, held at the Hotel Skogshojd in
Sodertalje, Sweden from 24-25th May 1988. These papers addressed the above
mentioned themes from several disciplinary perspectives: engineering,
transportation logistics, communication SCience, urban and regional planning,
systems analysis and economiCs, to name a few. The aim of the conference was to
bring together about twenty industry leaders and prominent SCientists from
different parts of the world in order to stimulate an environment of spontaneous
exchange - in which common threads and pOints of difference could be permitted
to "self-organize" into a reasonably holistic view of how the transportation industry
might grow and change in a long-term perspective.
The Conference was initiated by the Swedish Board for Technical Development,
the Swedish National Road Administration, and the Community of Sodermlje, who
also served as joint hosts for its duration. Practical arrangements were undertaken
by an Organizing Committee consisting of staff from the SodertaIje Business and
Technology Centre and from Temaplan AB. The Scania Division of Saab-Scania AB
kindly arranged the Conference Banquet. Professor Ake E. Andersson assisted with
the preliminary planning of the programme and Professor Carl-Olof Ternryd
delivered the opening speech. An edited version of his speech appears in the
Foreword to this volume.
VI
As well as thanking each of the above organizations and individuals for their
support and cooperation. we wish to acknowledge the assistance provided by the
Swedish Transport Research Board (TFB) and the Centre for Regional Science
Research (CERUM) towards the production of this volume. We would also like to
thank each of the contributing authors for their valuable ideas and suggestions both
during and after the Conference. and Irene Sundwall (Temaplan AB) for her skilful
preparation of the complete manuscript.
David Batten and Roland Thord
Stockholm. April 1989
FOREWORD
Three years ago we arranged in Stockholm (at the Royal Academy of Engineering
Sciences) a series of discussions on the interdependencies between R and D.
Industrial Development and Security Policy in Sweden. There were more than six
hundred managers and research leaders from industry. professors from academia
and representatives of various public authorities participating in these seminars.
The conclUSions and recommendations stated that the global internationalization of
industry during recent years will continue and pervade practically all of the
important sectors of our Society.
The consequences of internationalization for Sweden are more obvious than for
some other countries. This is due to the fact that Sweden is a highly industrialized
country with an advanced technology and a limited homemarket.
After a period of economic and industrial stagnation during the latter part of the
70s. Swedish industry has recovered well during the 80s. It has gone through a
swift transition during a short period of time. Practically every company and every
economic sector in Sweden has undergone reorganization or rationalization. The
drive to improve productivity. quality and the efficiency of capital expenditure has
been relentless. New technologies have been introduced at a rapid pace. Modern
and capital-effective philosophy concerning inventory and logistics has been
developed and introduced. having an important influence on economic
performance. Small inventory - which means a rapid capital flow and low capital
costs - can become effective only if the transportation and logistical system is so
well developed that it embraces the JUST-IN-TIME concept. An effective
infrastructure is needed nationally as well as for international contacts.
Industrial research
A small country like Sweden is strongly dependent on other countries for the
development of its industry and infrastructure. We represent a mere one percent of
all research in the world and we are therefore obliged to rely on research results
from other nations. In order to be interesting as partners for the exchange of
research results we have to be excellent in some areas. We must find some
interesting niches in which we can excel.
But opinion on preferable industrial developments changes rapidly. A few years
ago an international consulting group maintained that the Swedish pulp and paper
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industries were doomed, but these industries have recently demonstrated an
unusual capacity for innovative thinking and renewal. The Swedish machinery
manufacturers and pulp producers have combined their resources and utilized new
technological advances to produce new types of mechanical pulp and tissue papers.
Their researchers have recently presented new techniques for obtaining three
times the amount of high quality printing paper from a given quantity of wood at
lower costs. They use biochemically modified starch and simple fillers. Today 20
percent of Swedish exports come from timber.
Another branch that was supposedly doomed a few years ago was the Swedish car
industry. According to some European specialists, there would only be space for
three or four car manufacturers in Europe by the end of the 80s, and the Swedish
makers were not among them. Today the Swedish automotive .giants VOLVO and
SAAB-SCANIA sell more cars, buses and trucks than they can produce. They have
found the correct niches and they have developed an effective production and
marketing organization.
These few examples from Swedish industry demonstrate clearly that investments
in education, research and development are of the utmost importance for the
economic development of a country like Sweden. The entrepreneurial management
of technology and the companies using it is another very iniportant factor for the
successful development of industry and society at large. Great attention is therefore
paid to management training on different levels in our country.
The Swedish production costs are among the highest in the world, partly due to
our high labour costs. To compensate for this fact and to compete successfully on
the international market, we must be able to confront our rivals with superior
product quality and more cost-effective production methods. It is no coincidence
that Sweden has more robots per capita than any other nation. ASEA is the world's
largest manufacturer of robots. These robots have a great impact on product quality.
Effective coordination between man and machine is considered one strength of our
method of applying new technology.
Looking forward
A high level of technology within specialized niches is increasingly important for
industrial competitiveness on the international market. Close cooperation between
Sw~dish and foreign enterprises has been organized within production, marketing
and distribution. Swedish foreign trade and Swedish industries are well established
within Western Europe and the USA. The importance of raw materials is
decreasing and the products of engineering, pharmaceutical, chemical and
biochemical industries are increasing. Therefore, Sweden s future competitiveness
on the world market lies in those industrial fields and market segments
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characterized by high standards of quality and where services are integrated closely
with the products.
As in many other highly industrialized countries, we are entering what has been
called an Information Society. The need for rapid communications is growing.
Systems for the daily transportation of people to and from their workplaces will
become even more important in the future. Today many of the world·s major citieJ
I
suffer from enormous problems associated with automobile traffic in the suburbs
and the central areas. From an environmental standpoint, we must find rational
solutions to these problems.
There is also a similar increase in the need for cheap and reliable energy.
Environmental requirements are becoming stricter. This fact emphasizes the need
for eqUipment that can meet such demands. Both transport and energy supply
systems are part of our nation·s infrastructure. To develop and maintain a smoothly
functioning infrastructure and a skilled and competitive industrial sector is
essential for the future of Sweden. We believe that there exist these possibilities in
our country.
Sweden-s ability to maintain and to strengthen her position as a successful
industrial nation is entirely dependent on how successful we are in various export
markets. Closer cooperation within the framework of the European Community is a
necessity. Continued internationalization of Swedish industry is a necessity for
further expansion. This will take place in the form of newly established operations
in strategic markets, acquisitions, mergers and cooperation agreements with
foreign companies.
Development and maintenance of physical infrastructure has a decisive impact on
the economic and social development of a nation. To move people and goods in a
cost-effective way is becoming more and more important. There must be
possibilities to arrange an effective equilibrium between the different
transportation modes, and our transportation research must be channeled towards
these requirements. There must be more space for rational solutions than for
nostalgic thinking. Technological advances during recent years, and forecasts for
the near future, present opportunities that should be utilized in order to promote
transportation effectiveness and safety.
This First International Conference on TRANSPORTATION FOR THE FUTURE is
of the greatest importance for a better understanding of the role which a robust
infrastructure can play in the future development of society and its industry. I wish
you all every success in your work here at Sodertlilje, and I am quite convinced that
some excellent results will emerge from your discussions.
Carl-Olof Ternryd
Chairman, The Association of Swedish Automobile Manufactures and Wholesalers
CONTENTS
Preface
Foreword.
by C-O Tenuyd
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
by D.F. Batten and R. Thord
PART I: TRANSPORTATION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS:
THREE VISIONARY PERSPECTIVES
Chapter 2: Future Goods Transport In Europe 13
by C. Nicolin
Chapter 3: The Future of the AutomobUe 17
byG.C.Eads
Chapter 4: The Emerging C-Society 29
by A. E. Andersson and U. Stromquist
PARTD: THE TRANSPORT-COMMUNICATION NEXUS:
SOME EVOLUTIONARY TRENDS
Chapter 5: Expanding Territories: Transport Systems Past and Future 43
by N. Nakicenovic
Chapter 6: The Future of Transport and Interface Communication:
Debating the Scope for Substitution Growth 67
by D. F. Batten
Chapter 7: Using Technology to Improve Transportation Services 87
by W. L. Garrison
PARTm: THE FUTURE OF SURFACE TRANSPORT
(a) Progress with Navigation Technology
Chapter 8: Automobile Navigation Technology: Where is it going? 123
by R. L. French
Chapter 9: The CACS Project: How Far Away are we &om the Dynamic
Route Guidance System? 145
byH. Fujii
XII
Chapter 10: Contributions of Transportation Network ModeUng to the
Development of a Real-Time Route Guidance System 161
by D. E. Boyce
(b) Goods Transportation
Chapter 11: The Future of Truck Transportation in Europe 181
by H. St. Seidenfus
Chapter 12: Influence of Advanced Technology on Future Truck
Development 195
by S. Ericsson
(e) Passenger Transport and Commuting
Chapter 13: Passenger Transport Trends 211
by K. Krell
Chapter 14: The Long Term Development of Passenger Traffic Demand:
The German Example 225
by J. Grevsmahl
PART IV: PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE
Chapter 15: Transport Education and Training: Preparing for the
Future 243
by J. van Stappen
Chapter 16: The Infrastructural Challenge for Future Transportation:
Some Crlticallssues 257
byD. Nasman
APPENDIX: PROMETHEUS
The European Program for Improved Road Traffic 265
by T. Karlsson
List of Contributors 269