Lecture Notes in Computer Science 7190 CommencedPublicationin1973 FoundingandFormerSeriesEditors: GerhardGoos,JurisHartmanis,andJanvanLeeuwen EditorialBoard DavidHutchison LancasterUniversity,UK TakeoKanade CarnegieMellonUniversity,Pittsburgh,PA,USA JosefKittler UniversityofSurrey,Guildford,UK JonM.Kleinberg CornellUniversity,Ithaca,NY,USA AlfredKobsa UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine,CA,USA FriedemannMattern ETHZurich,Switzerland JohnC.Mitchell StanfordUniversity,CA,USA MoniNaor WeizmannInstituteofScience,Rehovot,Israel OscarNierstrasz UniversityofBern,Switzerland C.PanduRangan IndianInstituteofTechnology,Madras,India BernhardSteffen TUDortmundUniversity,Germany MadhuSudan MicrosoftResearch,Cambridge,MA,USA DemetriTerzopoulos UniversityofCalifornia,LosAngeles,CA,USA DougTygar UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,CA,USA GerhardWeikum MaxPlanckInstituteforInformatics,Saarbruecken,Germany Ngoc Thanh Nguyen (Ed.) Transactions on Computational Collective IntelligenceVI 1 3 VolumeEditor NgocThanhNguyen WrocławUniversityofTechnology Wyb.Wyspian´skiego27 50-370,Wrocław,Poland E-mail:[email protected] ISSN0302-9743 e-ISSN1611-3349 ISBN978-3-642-29355-9 e-ISBN978-3-642-29356-6 DOI10.1007/978-3-642-29356-6 SpringerHeidelbergDordrechtLondonNewYork LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2012934582 CRSubjectClassification(1998):I.2,C.2.4,I.2.11,H.3-5,D.2,I.5 ©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2012 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.Allrightsarereserved,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialis concerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,re-useofillustrations,recitation,broadcasting, reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherway,andstorageindatabanks.Duplicationofthispublication orpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheGermanCopyrightLawofSeptember9,1965, initscurrentversion,andpermissionforusemustalwaysbeobtainedfromSpringer.Violationsareliable toprosecutionundertheGermanCopyrightLaw. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,etc.inthispublicationdoesnotimply, evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevantprotectivelaws andregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Typesetting:Camera-readybyauthor,dataconversionbyScientificPublishingServices,Chennai,India Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Preface Welcome to the sixth volume of Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence (TCCI). This is the first issue in 2012, the third year of TCCI ac- tivities. In 2010, the first year, TCCI published 20 papers in two issues, while in 2011 there were three issues containing 30 papers. From 2012 we are plan- ning to keep a constant number of issues with about 35–40papers per year.All papers included in TCCI issues contain original and advanced research results of the authors. Each of these papers constitutes a complete and comprehensive description of the contribution. TCCI is devoted to research in computer-based methods of computational collectiveintelligence (CCI) andtheir applications in a wide rangeof fields such as groupdecision making,knowledge integration,consensus computing, Seman- tic Web, social networks and multiagent systems. TCCI strives to cover new computational, methodological, theoretical and practical aspects of collective intelligence understoodas the formofintelligence that emergesfromthe collab- oration and competition of many individuals (artificial and/or natural). This volume of TCCI includes ten interesting and original papers. The first of them, entitled “On the Pattern Recognition and Classification of Stochasti- cally Episodic Events” by Colin Bellinger and B. John Oommen, presents the frontiersofnoveltydetectionthroughtheintroductionofanewfieldofproblems open for analysis. In particular, the authors note that this new realm deviates from the standard set of one-class classificationproblems based on the presence of three characteristics,which ultimately amplify the classificationchallenge.In the second paper with the title “Paraconsistent Reasoning for Semantic Web Agents” the authors, Linh Anh Nguyen and Andrzej Szal(cid:2)as, address the prob- lemofprocessinginconsistency ofknowledge,which,for example,canappear in fusing knowledge from distributed sources. The authors introduce a number of paraconsistent semantics by providing a special logic named SROIQ, including three-valued and four-valued semantics. The next paper, “An Agent Model for Cognitive and Affective Empathic Understanding of Other Agents” by Zulfiqar A.MemonandJanTreur,focusesonmodelling capabilitiestointerpretanother person’s mind, taking into account both affective and cognitive states. The au- thors have built an agent model that describes how the empathic agent deals with another agent’s cognitive states and the associated feelings. In the fourth paperentitled“Multiagent-BasedSimulationasaSupplyChainAnalysisWork- bench” the authors, Jacek Jakiel(cid:2)a, Pawel(cid:2) Litwin and Marcin Olech, present the application of multiagent-based simulation tools to the analysis of supply chainbehavior.They show that the agent-orientedapproachmay be considered as a powerful conceptual framework for organization modeling and workbench forsimulationsofintra-andinter-organizationalbusinessprocesses.Inthepaper “On the Effective Distribution and Maintenance of Knowledge Represented by VI Preface Complementary Graphs” by Leszek Kotulski and Adam Se¸dziwy, a method for knowledgedistributionandmaintenance using parallelgraphtransformationsis presented. In the next paper, entitled “Agent System for Managing Distributed Mobile Interactive Documents in Knowledge-Based Organizations,” Magdalena Godlewska presents a model of knowledge-based organization and general as- sumptionsofthemobileinteractivedocument(MIND)architectureandselected workflow patterns applicable to knowledge-based organizations. She describes the elements of the agent system for managing distributed mobile documents and shows case studies that use the MIND architecture. In the seventh pa- per with the title “Agent Cooperation Within Adversarial Teams in Dynamic Environment — Key Issues and Development Trends” Bart(cid:2)lomiej Dzien´kowski andUrszulaMarkowska-Kaczmarpresenta comprehensivesurveyofmultiagent systems with adversarial teams competing in dynamic environments. The next paper, “OnPricing Strategies of Boundedly RationalTelecommunication Oper- ators” by Bogumil Kaminski and Maciej Latek, contains an analysis of a mul- tiagent model of a pre-paid telecommunication market and illustrates how the topology of the call graph among customers influences long-run market prices. Theninthpaperentitled“ReasoningAboutTime-DependentMultiagents:Foun- dationsofTheoremProvingandModelChecking,”byNorihiroKamide,presents some extensions of linear-time temporal logic and computation tree logic. The author has proved that owing to these approaches it is easier to process time- dependent knowledge in multiagent systems. In the last paper, “Learning Pre- dictive Models for Financial Time Series by Using Agent Based Simulations,” Filippo Neri presents a computational technique to model financial time series combiningalearningcomponentwithasimulationone.Theauthoralsodescribes an agent-based model of the financial market to simulate how the market will evolve in the short term while the learning component based on evolutionary computation is used to optimize the simulation parameters. TCCI is a peer-reviewed and authoritative journal dealing with the working potentialofCCI methodologiesandapplicationsas wellas with emergingissues of interest to academics and practitioners. The research area of CCI has been growingsignificantlyinrecentyearsandweareverythankfultoeveryonewithin the CCI researchcommunity who has supported the Transactions on Computa- tional Collective Intelligence andits affiliatedeventsincluding the International Conferences on Computational Collective Intelligence (ICCCI).The firstICCCI event was held in Wroclaw, Poland, in October 2009. ICCCI 2010 was held in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, in November 2010 and ICCCI 2011 in Gdynia, Poland, in September 2011. For ICCCI 2011 almost 300 papers from 25 countries were submitted, and only 105 papers were selected for inclusion in the proceedings publishedby Springerin the LNCS/LNAI series.ICCCI 2012willbe held inHo Chi Minh city, Vietnam, in November 2012. After each ICCCI event we invite authors of selected papers to extend them and submit them for publication in TCCI. Preface VII We are very pleased that TCCI and the ICCCI conferences are strongly cemented as high-quality platforms for presenting and exchanging the most im- portantandsignificantadvancesinCCIresearchanddevelopment.Itisalsoour pleasuretoannouncethenewTechnicalCommitteeonComputationalCollective Intelligence within the Systems, Man and Cybernetics Society (SMC) of IEEE. We would like to thank all the authors, Editorial Board members, and the reviewersfor their contributions to TCCI. Finally, we would also like to express ourgratitudeto theLNCSeditorialstaffofSpringerheadedbyAlfredHofmann for supporting the TCCI journal. December 2011 Ngoc Thanh Nguyen Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence This Springer journalfocuses on researchin applications of the computer-based methods of computationalcollective intelligence (CCI) andtheir applications in awiderangeoffields suchasthe SemanticWeb,socialnetworksandmultiagent systems. It aims to provide a forum for the presentation of scientific research and technological achievements accomplished by the international community. Thetopicsaddressedbythisjournalincludeallsolutionsofreal-lifeproblems for which it is necessary to use CCI technologies to achieve effective results. The emphasis of the papers is on novel and original research and technological advancements. Special features on specific topics are welcome. Editor-in-Chief Ngoc Thanh Nguyen Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland Co-Editor-in-Chief Ryszard Kowalczyk Swinburne University of Technology, Australia Editorial Board John Breslin NationalUniversity ofIreland,Galway,Ireland Shi-Kuo Chang University of Pittsburgh, USA Longbing Cao University of Technology Sydney, Australia Oscar Cordon European Centre for Soft Computing, Spain Tzung-Pei Hong National University of Kaohsiung, Taiwan Gordan Jezic University of Zagreb, Croatia Piotr Je¸drzejowicz Gdynia Maritime University, Poland Kang-Huyn Jo University of Ulsan, Korea Rados(cid:2)law Katarzyniak Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland Jozef Korbicz University of Zielona Gora, Poland Hoai An Le Thi Metz University, France Pierre L´evy University of Ottawa, Canada Tokuro Matsuo Yamagata University, Japan Kazumi Nakamatsu University of Hyogo, Japan ToyoakiNishida Kyoto University, Japan Manuel Nu´n˜ez Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain Julian Padget University of Bath, UK Witold Pedrycz University of Alberta, Canada X Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence Debbie Richards Macquarie University, Australia Roman Sl(cid:2)owin´ski Poznan University of Technology, Poland Edward Szczerbicki University of Newcastle, Australia Kristinn R. Thorisson Reykjavik University, Iceland Gloria Phillips-Wren Loyola University Maryland, USA Sl(cid:2)awomir Zadroz˙ny Institute of Research Systems, PAS, Poland Table of Contents On the Pattern Recognition and Classification of Stochastically Episodic Events.................................................. 1 Colin Bellinger and B. John Oommen ParaconsistentReasoning for Semantic Web Agents .................. 36 Linh Anh Nguyen and Andrzej Sza(cid:2)las An Agent Model for Cognitive and Affective Empathic Understanding of Other Agents ................................................. 56 Zulfiqar A. Memon and Jan Treur Multiagent Based Simulation as a Supply Chain Analysis Workbench... 84 Jacek Jakiel(cid:2)a, Pawel(cid:2) Litwin, and Marcin Olech On the Effective Distribution and Maintenance of Knowledge Represented by Complementary Graphs ............................ 105 Leszek Kotulski and Adam Se¸dziwy Agent System for Managing Distributed Mobile Interactive Documents in Knowledge-BasedOrganizations ................................. 121 Magdalena Godlewska Agent Cooperation within Adversarial Teams in Dynamic Environment – Key Issues and Development Trends .................. 146 Bart(cid:2)lomiej Jo´zef Dzien´kowski and Urszula Markowska-Kaczmar On Pricing Strategies of Boundedly Rational Telecommunication Operators....................................................... 170 Bogumil Kaminski and Maciej Latek Reasoning about Time-Dependent Multi-agents: Foundations of Theorem Proving and Model Checking.............................. 181 Norihiro Kamide Learning Predictive Models for Financial Time Series by Using Agent Based Simulations ............................................... 202 Filippo Neri Author Index.................................................. 223 On the Pattern Recognition and Classification (cid:2) of Stochastically Episodic Events Colin Bellinger1 and B. John Oommen2 1 The School of Information Technology and Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada [email protected] 2 Chancellor’s Professor, Fellow: IEEEand Fellow: IAPR School of Computer Science, Carleton University,Ottawa, Canada [email protected] Abstract. Researchers in the field of Pattern Recognition (PR) have traditionally presumed the availability of a representative set of data drawn from the classes of interest, say ω1 and ω2 in a 2-class problem. These samples are typically utilized in the development of the system’s discriminantfunction.Itis,however,widelyrecognizedthatthereexists a particularly challenging class of PR problems for which a represen- tative set is not available for the second class, which has motivated a great dealofresearch intotheso-called domain ofOneClass (OC)clas- sification. In this paper, we extend the frontiers of novelty detection by the introduction of a new field of problems open for analysis. In par- ticular, we note that this new realm deviates from the standard set of OC problems based on the presence of three characteristics, which ul- timately amplify the classification challenge. They involve the temporal nature of the appearance of the data, the fact that the data from the classes are “interwoven”, and that a labelling procedure is not merely impractical - it is almost, by definition, impossible. As a first attempt totackletheseproblems,wepresenttwospecialized classificationstrate- gies denoted by Scenarios S1 and S2 respectively. In Scenarios S1, the dataissuchthatstandardbinaryandone-classclassifierscanbeapplied. Alternatively, in Scenarios S2, the labelling challenge prevents the ap- plication of binary classifiers, and instead dictates the novelapplication of one-class classifiers. The validity of these scenarios has been demon- strated for theexemplary domain involving theComprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban-Treaty(CTBT),forwhichourresearchendeavourhasalsode- velopedasimulationmodel.Asfarasweknow,ourresearchinthisfield is of a pioneering sort, and theresults presented hereare novel. Keywords: Pattern Recognition, Rare Events, Stochastic Events, Erroneous Data. (cid:2) Thefirstauthorisalso an Adjunct Professor with theUniversityofAgderin Grim- stad, Norway. Both the authors are grateful for the partial support provided by NSERC,theNaturalSciencesandEngineering Research Council ofCanada. Apre- liminary version of this paper was presented at ACIIDS’11, the 2011 Asian Confer- ence on Intelligent Information and Database Systems, in Daegu, Korea, in April 2011. N.T.Nguyen(Ed.):TransactionsonCCIVI,LNCS7190,pp.1–35,2012. (cid:2)c Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2012