Thwarted Ambition

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rkey:
urkey:
Thwarted
Thwarted
Ambition
Ambition
.V Mayall
SSimon imon V. Mayall
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Turkey: Thwarted Ambition
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Simon V. /Mayall
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McNair Washington, DC 20319
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JAMES JAMES MMADISON ADISON tto o WW. . TT. , BBARRY ARRY
August August 44, , 11822 822
Turkey:
iurkey:
Thwarted Ambition
Thw^arted Ambition
Simon .V Mayall
Simon V, Mayall
McNair Paper 56
McNair Paper 56
yraunaJJanuary 11997 997
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CContentos ntents
11. . IINTNRODUCTTION RODUCTION ......................... 11
2.. HHISTORICAIL STORICAL IINFLUNENCES FLUENCES OON N
MMODERN ODERN TTURKEY URKEY ......................... 77
TThe he OOrigins rigins aand nd LLegacy egacy oof f OOttoman ttoman GGreatness reatness ...... 77
TThe he OOttomans ttomans aand nd tthe he WWest est .................... 88
TThe he OOttomans ttomans aand nd tthe he EEuropean uropean BBalance alance oof f PPower ower ... . 110 0
TThe he DDevelopmeent velopment oof f TTurkish urkish NNationaliasm tionalism ....... 112 2
WWorld orld WWar ar OOne ne aand nd DDefeat efeat ................. 114 4
TThe he WWar ar oof f IIndnependednce ependence aand nd tthe he NNational ational PPact act ..... ... 115 5
CConclusioon nclusion ................................ 117 7
3.. TTHE HE SSTATE TATE FFOUNDAOTIONS UNDATIONS OOF F TTURKISH URKISH
SSECURITY ECURITY PPOLICY OLICY . ........................ 221 1
GGeopolitiecal opolitical FFoundatioons undations .................... 221 1
EEthnic thnic FFoundatioons undations ......................... 222 2
IIdeodlogicale ological FFoundatoions undations .................... 222 2
SState, tate, SSociety ociety aand nd tthe he FFormulatoion rmulation oof f
FForeign oreign PPolicy olicy .......................... 225 5
TThe he CCivil ivil SService ervice ........................... 226 6
TThe he AArmy rmy ................................. 227 7
TThe he RRole ole oof f tthe he AArmy rmy iin n SSecurity ecurity PPolicy olicy . ......... 229 9
FForeign oreign PPolicy olicy aand nd PPublic ublic OOpinion pinion ............. 331 1
TThe he 11980 980 IIntenrventiotn ervention aand nd tthe he 11982 982 CConstitutoion nstitution .... .. 332 2
A A NNew ew EEra ra . .............................. 333 3
4.. TTHE HE EEXERCISE XERCISE OOF F TTURKISH URKISH
FFOREIGN OREIGN PPOLICY: OLICY: AAtaturk taturk tto o OOzal zal ............ 337 7
FForeign oreign PPolicy olicy IImpemratives peratives . ................... 338 8
IIntenrnationtal ernational AAcceptancce ceptance . .................. 339 9
TTurkey urkey aand nd tthe he SSecond econd WWorld orld WWar ar ............ 441 1
TTurkey urkey MMoves oves WWest est . .................... 442 2
TTurkey urkey aand nd tthe he CCold old WWar ar . ................... 444 4
TTurkey urkey RReassesses eassesses iits ts RRole ole .................... 446 6
SSecurity ecurity PPolicy olicy SStability tability ..................... 550 0
/iii. //
5.. TTHE HE MMOLD OLD BBREAKS REAKS . ....................... 553 3
TThe he CChallenghe allenge . ............................ 554 4
TTurgut urgut OOzal zal . .............................. 555 5
TThe he GGulf ulf WWar ar ............................. 557 7
TThe he WWorld orld UUnfolds nfolds . ........................ 558 8
AArmenia,r menia, AAzerbaijzan, erbaijan, aand nd NNagorno-aKarabagkh orno-Karabakh ...... 660 0
TThe he WWar ar iin n BBosnia osnia ......................... 661 1
TThe he TTurkic urkic RRepublicse publics oof f CCentral entral AAsia sia . ........... 662 2
RRegional egional IInitniativeis tiatives .......................... 663 3
CConclusioon nclusion ................................ 664 4
6.. TTHWARTHED WARTED AAMBITIOMN? BITION? ..................... 669 9
IIntenrnal ternal PPolitics olitics . ........................... 770 0
TThe he EEconomyc onomy . ........................... 1771
RRefah efah AAlters lters tthe he EEquation quation .................... 775 5
TThe he AArmed rmed FForces orces .......................... 177 1
TThe he DDefense efense BBudget udget ......................... 880 0
RRefah efah aand nd tthe he MMilitary ilitary ....................... 881 1
TThe he KKurdish urdish IIssue ssue ........................... 883 3
7.. BBRIDGE RIDGE OOR R BBARRIER? ARRIER? . ...................... 91 yi
TTurkey'us rkey's RRelations elations wwith ith tthe he WWest est ............... 992 2
TTurkey'us rkey's RRelationse lations wwith ith tthe he EEast ast ................ 996 6
CConclusioon nclusion ............................... 1102 02
88. . FFACING ACING TTHE HE FFUTURE UTURE . ..................... 1105 05
AABOUT BOUT TTHE HE AAUTHOR UTHOR ......................... 1 11177
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Turkey:
airkey:
Thwarted Ambition
Thw^artcd Ambition
l1e .
IIntrnoducttionr oduction
A
At the end of the Cold War every country was forced to re-
J the end of the Cold War every country was forced to re-
examine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their
examine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their
security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of
security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of
the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate
the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate
tes of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States
set of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States
and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very
and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very
ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being
ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being
the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of
the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of
a new one.
a new one.
In a bipolar world Turkey had had the luxury of an
In a bipolar world Turkey had had the luxury of an
uncomplicated security policy in which, broadly speaking, it
uncomplicated security policy in which, broadly speaking, it
aligned with the West, opposed the Soviet Union, and ignored
aligned with the West, opposed the Soviet Union, and ignored
the rest. In the new security environment, Turkey's
the rest. In the new security environment, Turkey's
geographical position and its military strength now made it a
geographical position and its military strength now made it a
European, Balkan, Middle Eastern, Near Eastern, Caucasian,
European, Balkan, Middle Eastern, Near Eastern, Caucasian,
Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black aeS power. Sharing borders
Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Sea power. Sharing borders
with Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq, and Syria,
with Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq, and Syria,
Turkey's control of the Bosphorus Straits and the Dardenelles
Turkey's control of the Bosphorus Straits and the Dardenelles
also made it a Black aeS neighbor of Russia, the Ukraine,
also made it a Black Sea neighbor of Russia, the Ukraine,
Romania and Moldova. Turkey's ethnic roots lay in Central
Romania and Moldova. Turkey's ethnic roots lay in Central
Asia, the Caucasus, and the Balkans, influencing its interests,
Asia, the Caucasus, and the Balkans, influencing its interests,
concerns, and sympathies. stI Muslim identity demanded a
concerns, and sympathies. Its Muslim identity demanded a
TTurkey: urkey: 7n7Jwarted warted AAmbition mbition
ccommunityo mmunity oof f iinterest nterest iin n tthe he MMiddle iddle ,tsaEE ast, tthrough hrough PPakistan, akistan,
and across to South tsaE Asia. This span of responsibility was
and across to South East Asia. This span of responsibility was
a source of both excitement and concern, but these emotions
a source of both excitement and concern, but these emotions
were not often shared by sti allies.
were not often shared by its allies.
Turkey was na active participant in the Gulf War, and in sti
Turkey was an active participant in the Gulf War, and in its
wake President Turgut Ozal stated, "It si my conviction that
wake President Turgut Ozal stated, "It is my conviction that
Turkey should leave its former passive and hesitant policies
Turkey should leave its former passive and hesitant policies
and engage in na active foreign policy. 1'' Between 1991 and
and engage in an active foreign policy."' Between 1991 and
1993, 1993, TTurkey urkey sseemed eemed tto o eembrace mbrace OOzal's zal's vvision, ision, eembarking mbarking oon n
a broad range of diplomatic activity in Central Asia, the Trans-
a broad range of diplomatic activity in Central Asia, the Trans-
Caucasus, Caucasus, tthe he MMiddle iddle EEast, ast, aand nd tthe he BBlack lack aeSS ea aarea. rea. TThese hese
ambitions were supported by a wide range of Turkish public
ambitions were supported by a wide range of Turkish public
opinion, and by many observers in the West, 2 particularly in
opinion, and by many observers in the West, ^ particularly in
the United .setatS ~ None of the immediate and demanding
the United States.^ None of the immediate and demanding
post-Cold War seussi of ,ainsoB the Middle tsaE Peace ,ssecorP
post-Cold War issues of Bosnia, the Middle East Peace Process,
Iraqi sanctions, Operation Provide Comfort, Trans-Caucasus
Iraqi sanctions. Operation Provide Comfort, Trans-Caucasus
,msitarapesseparatism, RRussian ussian aactivities ctivities in in tthe he ""Near Near AAbroad," broad," EFCCFE fflank lank
,seussi NATO enlargement, Cyprus, Central Asia, and energy
issues, NATO enlargement, Cyprus, Central Asia, and energy
pipelines could be discussed without reference to Turkey.
pipelines could be discussed without reference to Turkey.
Enthusiasm and concern colored stnemssessa of how Turkey
Enthusiasm and concern colored assessments of how Turkey
wwould ould aaddress ddress tthese hese nnew ew cchallenges hallenges aand nd oopportunities. pportunities. MMany any
of these stnemssessa were flawed by poor understanding of the
of these assessments were flawed by poor understanding of the
ddynamics ynamics oof f tthe he TTurkish urkish sstate, tate, society, society, and and eeconomy, conomy, oor r bby y
lack of knowledge about the consistent elements in Turkish
lack of knowledge about the consistent elements in Turkish
foreign policy.
foreign policy.
nI his history of the First World War, Churchill wrote, 1"
In his history of the First World War, Churchill wrote, "I
ccan an rrecall ecall no no ggreat reat sphere sphere oof f ppolicy olicy aabout bout wwhich hich the the British British
Government was less completely informed than the Turkish. 4"
Government was less completely informed than the Turkish."''
He wrote this in 1929, some 6 years after the Treaty of
He wrote this in 1929, some 6 years after the Treaty of
ennasuaL dah formally recognized the new Republic of Turkey.
Lausanne had formally recognized the new Republic of Turkey.
Written with the benefit of hindsight, his comments
Written with the benefit of hindsight, his comments
encompassed not only the causes and consequences of the
encompassed not only the causes and consequences of the
disastrous Gallipoli campaign, but the whole conduct of
disastrous Callipoli campaign, but the whole conduct of
British policy toward the late Ottoman Empire and the
British policy toward the late Ottoman Empire and the
foundations of modern Turkey. The British were not alone in
foundations of modern Turkey. The British were not alone in
mmisunderstanding isunderstanding TTurkey. urkey. TThroughout hroughout the the West, West, llack ack oof f
ccomprehension omprehension wwas as ccompounded ompounded bby y hhistorical istorical aantipathy, ntipathy.
2 2