The Paris agreement on climate change : analysis and commentary PDF
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THE PARIS AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE The Paris Agreement on Climate Change Analysis and Commentary Edited by DANIEL KLEIN, MARÍA PÍA CARAZO, MEINHARD DOELLE, JANE BULMER, and ANDREW HIGHAM 1 1 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP, United Kingdom Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries © The several contributors 2017 The moral rights of the authors have been asserted First Edition published in 2017 Impression: 1 All rights reserved. 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Foreword Christiana Figueres1 On 12 December 2015, the governments of 195 countries came together to unani- mously adopt the Paris Agreement. The event was announced on the front page of practically every newspaper in the world. It was hailed worldwide as a historic achieve- ment and monumental breakthrough— and rightly so. Experiencing the destructive impacts and understanding the increasing risks of unaddressed climate change, the global community had struggled for years to reach a comprehensive global treaty on climate change that would be applicable to all countries in both a nationally fair and globally ambitious manner, and would clearly delineate the path for steady collab- orative progress over the years. The Paris Agreement (referred to interchangeably throughout this volume as the Paris Agreement or the Agreement) marks the hard- won culmination of those determined efforts. Seen from the perspective of international efforts over the past two decades, the Agreement is undoubtedly an extraordinary political and legal success. Seen from the perspective of the longer- term evolution of humankind it is simply unprecedented in history. Never before had the international community taken a unanimous, inten- tional decision to change the course of the global economy. The Industrial Revolution unleashed a profound transformation in the global economy, but that transformation was the result of the discovery of what was then a new family of fuels and the corre- sponding development of the technologies and financial instruments to make use of those fuels. It was a market- driven revolution. The economic transformation that will ensue as a result of the Paris Agreement will be accelerated by new technology and innovative financial instruments, but it is the direct result of the intentional collective decision of all governments of the world to move our global economy beyond fossil fuels as the predominant source of energy and growth, to one powered primarily by renewable energy. The energy revolution of the twenty- first century, at the heart of the economic transformation we are already seeing, is a policy- driven revolution. This is not merely an anomalous occurrence. Over the past few decades, science has been warning us that we have reached and exceeded planetary boundaries. In fact, the human impact on the planet has been so profound that geologists recognize the end of the Holocene era and the beginning of the Anthropocene era. Now we humans do not only depend on the natural environment as in the past, but actually determine the course of nature. As that threshold has been irrevocably crossed, we face an unprec- edented responsibility of stewardship. That responsibility is only magnified when considered in the context of the impacts on the most vulnerable. Although not exclusively, in general these are populations in developing countries who are the least responsible for the problem and the least able to adapt to it. What makes the responsibility not just a burden but an exhilarating 1 Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010– 2016). vi Foreword inspiration is the fact that the necessary transformation will indeed reduce risk, but it will also create the space for a new and safer paradigm of development. Developing countries will be able to leapfrog over already obsolete technologies towards the new technologies that provide exponentially increased access to energy, boosted energy security, restored soils, improved food and water security, more liveable cities, and better health. For many years a global agreement on climate change was aspired to by many, doubted by most. The story of its gradual construction is a story of vision, of determi- nation, and of stubborn optimism in the face of constant pressures to the contrary. It is the story of an ever- growing group of resolute people from every country and all walks of life who understood both the risks inherent in the absence of a global response and the opportunities inherent in the transformation, and who dedicated time, energy, and ingenuity to supporting each other in the quest for a safe and equitable path for- ward. In short, it is the heroic story of humankind rising to its higher purpose. This book offers a comprehensive guide and commentary to the Paris Agreement. Part I looks back over the history of the global climate change negotiations, analysing the scientific and political drivers that propelled the Paris Agreement, the develop- ment of the legal and policy considerations that provide the framework, and the evolu- tion of the conceptual pillars upon which it rests. The provisions of the Agreement are subjected to detailed examination, article by article, in Part II. Each chapter provides an in- depth analysis of the respective provisions, their specific context and negotiat- ing history, the next steps necessary for their operationalization, and the implications for their implementation on the ground. Part III offers an overall assessment of the Agreement, its strengths and weaknesses, its possible impact on international law, and the need for further legal and policy development. Going beyond legal analysis, the book also provides insight on how to implement the Agreement in order to reach its objectives. It is an authoritative resource for gov- ernments and policy- makers, but also for practitioners, negotiators, the private sector, and for civil society. In order for the necessary economic and energy transformation to become a reality, we must achieve an alignment of public policy at the subnational, national, and international levels. It is essential to understand what the provisions of the Paris Agreement entail and what obligations and expectations they create. It is equally critical to understand how stakeholders can use those provisions to benefit everyone. The Paris Agreement cannot solve climate change on its own. However, it does unmistakably define the direction of travel towards limiting global average tempera- ture rise to a range between 1.5 ° and below 2 °C, to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. There is much left to be achieved in order to make that vision a reality, but what is clear is that progress is by now unstoppable. As this book goes to press, the world has already shown this to be true. Scarcely nine months after the adoption of the Agreement, a sufficient number of countries had ratified and met the double threshold for entry into force. The Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016, a whole four years before the originally intended date of 2020. In October 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed to set a limit on greenhouse gas emissions over the entire aviation sector— the first Foreword vii time in history that an entire industrial sector has adopted such limits. Just two weeks afterwards, and after many years of contentious debate, the Montreal Protocol was successfully amended to include hydrofluorocarbons— substances with high global warming potential whose newly agreed phasedown can now represent a saving of 0.5 °C in global temperature rise. We are also seeing the difference on the ground. Among many other examples, China will have a national price on carbon by 2017. A California- based energy com- pany has announced the construction of a 2000 MW concentrated solar power plant, equivalent to nuclear capacity. Indonesia is completing a 330 MW geothermal power plant. Kenya is building a 300 MW wind farm and more than 30 per cent of its citizens living off the grid already have a solar product at home. India is attracting investment worth US$1 billion into renewable solutions for those without electricity. Renewables are taking off, especially in developing countries, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) is having to revise its projections of renewable energy growth around the world upwards over the next five to ten years. We are not at our destination yet, but we are irreversibly on our way. Preface The aim of this book is to provide a comprehensive overview and assessment of the Paris Agreement, adopted on 12 December 2015 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and an in- depth analysis of its provisions in the form of an article- by- article commentary. In doing so, we hope to cast a light on all aspects of the Agreement and the context in which it was adopted in order to enhance understanding of what it means and what needs to be done by parties and stakeholders to deliver on its promise. As well as providing a systematic and comprehensive legal analysis, the book situ- ates the Paris Agreement in the broader perspective of climate action: building on the existing climate change regime and looking ahead to future operationalization and development of the Agreement through parties and non- party stakeholders. It serves thus as a practical guide to understanding the Agreement by unpacking each of its key elements and assessing their implications. The book is composed of three parts. Part I provides a brief overview of the back- ground, context, and drivers for the development of the Agreement from scientific as well as political and socio- economic perspectives. It also explains the existing inter- national climate change framework and charts the history of negotiations within that framework from 2005 up to the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Furthermore, it explores key principles and concepts underpinning the Agreement, such as ambi- tion and differentiation, and provides an analysis of its legal form and the nature of its obligations. Part II examines the Agreement by way of a detailed analysis of each of its articles, drawing where needed on the relevant paragraphs of Decision 1/ CP.21 (the decision through which the Conference of the Parties adopted the Paris Agreement), and following a harmonized approach. For each article, the authors provide an over- view of the context and negotiating history, a detailed paragraph- by- paragraph analy- sis of the article, and a summary of implementation considerations, as well as a brief evaluation and outlook. Finally, Part III assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the Agreement, offers initial considerations on its possible implications for international law more broadly, and provides an outlook for climate action and the achievement of the goals which the Paris Agreement prescribes. Each chapter may be read in its own right, but the chapters also complement each other. Together they build up a comprehensive, in- depth, and multifaceted picture of the Paris Agreement. The chapters in Part II have been drafted following a consistent structure, which facilitates comparing information between the provisions. Extensive cross- referencing between the chapters and to further sources aids in understanding the interconnection between the provisions and gives a basis for further reading. As such, it is designed to assist both scholars and practitioners in understanding, and more importantly, in taking action to combat climate change at local, regional, and global levels. References to official documents prepared under the auspices of the UNFCCC are given using an abridged version of their title. The complete information for all Preface ix cited UNFCCC documents can be found in the list of treaties and other international instruments. These and other relevant UNFCCC documents can also be accessed on the UNFCCC website2 under ‘Documents and Decisions’.3 The term ‘Paris Outcome’ is used throughout this book to refer jointly to the Paris Agreement and Decision 1/ CP.21 (the latter is sometimes referred to as the ‘Paris Decision’ or ‘adoption decision’). The full reference of the Paris Agreement and Decision 1/ CP.21, as well as of the 1992 United Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol is provided in the list of treaties and docu- ments. An abbreviated citation form is also used for the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The complete information on all authors, editors, and titles of the IPCC reports can be found in the selected bibliogra- phy at the end of the book. 2 See http://u nfccc.int/2 860.php (last accessed 28 February 2017). 3 For UNFCCC Documents and Decisions see https:// unfccc.int/ 3595.php (last accessed 28 February 2017).
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