THE PAKISTAN CAULDRON Related Titles from Potomac Books Human Intelligence, Counterterrorism & National Leadership: A Practical Guide —Gary Berntsen High-Value Target: Countering al Qaeda in Yemen —Amb. Edmund J. Hull (Ret.) Iraq in Transition: The Legacy of Dictatorship and the Prospects for Democracy —Peter J. Munson The Other War: Winning and Losing in Afghanistan —Amb. Ronald E. Neumann (Ret.) Breeding Ground: Afghanistan and the Origins of Islamist Terrorism —Deepak Tripathi THE PAKISTAN CAULDRON Conspiracy, Assassination & Instability James P. Farwell Foreword by Joseph D. Duffey Potomac Books Washington, D.C. Copyright © 2011 by James P. Farwell Published in the United States by Potomac Books, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Farwell, James P. The Pakistan cauldron : conspiracy, assassination & instability / James P. Farwell ; foreword by Joseph D. Duffey.—1st ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-59797-982-5 (hardcover : acid-free paper) ISBN 978-1-59797-983-2 (electronic edition) 1. Communication in politics—Pakistan. 2. Political leadership—Pakistan. 3. Khan, A. Q. (Abdul Qadeer), 1936–. 4. Bhutto, Benazir, 1953–2007. 5. Musharraf, Pervez. 6. Pakistan— Politics and government—1988– I. Title. JA85.2.P3F37 2011 954.9105—dc22 2011014001 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper that meets the American National Standards Institute Z39-48 Standard. Potomac Books 22841 Quicksilver Drive Dulles, Virginia 20166 First Edition 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For Dan Devlin Pakistan CIA World Factbook 2011 Contents Foreword by Joseph D. Duffey ix Acknowledgments xiii Introduction xv Part I: Muzzling the Scientist 1 The Curious Case of A. Q. Khan 3 2 Removing Khan from Play 12 3 Conspiracy Land 26 Part II: A Woman of Courage 4 The Mysterious Encounter 39 5 A Life Rooted in Blood and Turmoil 49 6 The Populist Aristocrat 54 7 The Years Harden Hostilities 68 8 Prime Minister at Thirty-five 73 9 Musharraf Battles to Survive 93 10 Cutting the Cards 99 11 The Red Mosque 109 12 Bhutto and Musharraf Reach an Agreement 117 vii Contents 13 Karachi 123 14 The State of Emergency 131 15 Liaquat Bagh 135 16 “Busharraf” of Pakistan 141 Part III: Dealing with the Assassination 17 The Campaign of Influence 149 18 The Fallout 193 19 Who Killed Benazir? 206 Part IV: A Nation on the Brink 20 The Aftermath 225 21 Quo Vadis? Where To? 227 22 Resetting the Terms of Cooperation Amid Public Paranoia 240 23 Looking Ahead 259 Notes 265 Selected Reading 319 Index 323 About the Author 331 viii Foreword A senior U.S. diplomat was asked recently, “How are we doing in Paki- stan?” He replied, “It’s a very complicated issue. . . . It’s not how ‘we’ are doing at all. . . . The question is, ‘How is Pakistan doing?’”1 In a recent article, Deepak Chopra and Salman Ahmad wrote that “Pakistan is a war zone but its battle is far more cultural than military.”2 The fact is, Pakistan’s fortunes are central to stability in Central and Southwest Asia. How it addresses its tough challenges affects the war in Afghanistan, the battle to discredit and marginalize violent extremism, and U.S. national security. For those who seek a greater understanding of what makes Pakistani politics tick, this book is required reading. James Farwell has advised the Department of Defense and Unified Com- batant Commands (COCOMs), such as the U.S. Special Operations Com- mand and the U.S. Strategic Command, for nearly a decade. His background, understanding, and gift for narrative based on carefully researched and docu- mented sources yield important and relevant insights. Farwell carries no ideo- logical candle. He avoids “selling” a point of view as to decisions of any White House administration. His focus is on history and today’s Pakistani leaders. He writes as an informed analyst and historian with the expertise of a vet- eran information strategist and internationally respected political consultant. The Pakistan Cauldron spells out what we know and should understand about Pakistani politics based on public sources as well as a significant number of ix