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aa EAP KES oe “Reed and Stillman assemble a mass of details, technical and political. ...The nuclear express, they say, is... hurtling down the tracks without an engineer at the throttle.” — Wall Street Journal A POLITICAL HISTORY OF THE BOMB AND ITS PROLIFERATION Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman THE NUCLEAR EXPRESS In the spring of 1940, as the clouds of war gathered over Europe, American newscaster Edward R. Murrow reported from London: “The people here feel the machine is out of control, that we are all passengers on an express train traveling at high speed through a dark tunnel toward an unknown destiny. The suspicion recurs that the train may have no engineer.” He was referring to Neville Chamberlains Great Britain, but another and far more lethal train pulled out of the Berlin bahnhof during those same years. THE NUCLEAR EXPRESS A POLITICAL HISTORY OF THE BOMB AND ITS PROLIFERATION Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman e ZENITH PRESS First published in 2009 by Zenith Press, an imprint of MBI Publishing Company, 400 First Avenue North, Suite 300, Minneapolis, MN 55401 USA Copyright © 2009, 2010 by Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman Hardcover edition published 2009. Softcover edition 2010. All rights reserved. With the exception of quoting brief passages for the purposes of review, no part of this publication may be reproduced without prior written permission from the Publisher. The information in this book is true and complete to the best of our knowledge. Zenith Press titles are also available at discounts in bulk quantity for industrial or sales- promotional use. For details write to Special Sales Manager at MBI Publishing Company, 400 First Avenue North, Suite 300, Minneapolis, MN 55401 USA. To find out more about our books, visit us online at www.zenithpress.com. ISBN-13: 978-0-7603-3904-6 The Library of Congress has cataloged the hardcover edition as follows: Reed, Thomas C. The nuclear express : a political history of the bomb and its proliferation / Thomas C. Reed and Danny B. Stillman. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-7603-3502-4 (hb w/ jkt) 1. Nuclear weapons--History. I. Stillman, Danny B. II. Title. U264.R44 2009 623.4'511909--de22 2008021384 Designed by: Jennifer Bergstrom Cover designed by: Brian Donahue About the Author: Thomas C. Reed was formerly a nuclear weapons designer at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, political manager for Ronald Reagan’s gubernatorial contests, Secretary of the Air Force under presidents Ford and Carter, Special Assistant to President Reagan for National Security Policy, and a successful businessman. Reed wrote an autobiographical account of his experiences titled At the Abyss: An Insider’ History of the Cold War. Reed is a frequent visitor to Russia and Ukraine and is a graduate of Cornell University and the University of Southern California. He resides in northern California. Danny B. Stillman is a Los Alamos physicist with decades of experience in nuclear design, diagnostics, and testing. For thirteen years, Stillman directed the Los Alamos Technical Intelligence Division; at the end of that tour, he was awarded the Intelligence Community Seal Medallion. Stillman is an engineering physics graduate of the University of Washington. He lives in White Rock, New Mexico. On the cover: The fireball from the WILSON Event, 4:45 a.m. PDT, June 18, 1957, Yucca Flat, was photographed from a distance of about five miles within seconds after detonation. Digital Vision/Getty Images Printed in the United States of America CONTENTS PROLOGUE 2 CHAPTERlL : BIG NEWS: FISSION RELEASES NEUTRONS! — 8 CHAPTER2: LOS ALAMOS: A FIRST, BUT NOT THELAST 12 CHAPTER3: THE RAIDS ON JAPAN — 20 CHAPTER4: THE U.S.S.R. AND THE UNITED KINGDOM: UNINTENDED PARTNERS — 26 CHAPTER 5: FIRST ATTEMPTS AT CONTROLS — 54 CHAPTER 6: FRANCE AND ISRAEL: THE APPRENTICES _ 68 CHAPTE7R: CHINA BREAKS THE EUROPEAN CARTEL _ 84 CHAPTER 8: NUCLEAR MATURITY COMES TO THE LITTLE THREE — 114 CHAPTER9: STRUGGLING WITH THE BARN DOOR - 132 CHAPTER 10: CHANGES OF STATE IN THE MIDEAST AND SOUTH ASIA _ 148 CHAPTER 11: SOUTH AFRICA _ 170 CHAPTER 12: THE SOVIET UNION 186 CHAPTER 13: THE ONCE-NUCLEAR SOVIET REPUBLICS — 204 CHAPTER 14: CHINA’S DECADE OF NUCLEAR TRANSPARENCY — 220 CHAPTER 15: | THE FAKIRS: INDIA, PAKISTAN, AND NORTH KOREA 236 CHAPTER 16: FINGERPRINTS — 268 CHAPTER 17: STAR AND CRESCENT RISING — 278 CHAPTER 18: GEORGES-ANTOINE KURTZ IS ALIVE AND WELL — 302 CHAPTER 19: WHY? = 312 EPILOGUE 320 GLOSSARY 332 APPENDICES A: THE PHYSICS OF NUCLEAR WEAPON DESIGN — 340 B: BOMBING MISSIONS OVER JAPAN BY THE 393rp (NUCLEAR) BOMBARDMENT SQUADRON, JULY 20-AUGUST 14, 1945 346 C: U.S. AIRCRAFT ACCIDENTS WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS ABOARD 348 D: PRINCIPAL SOVIET NUCLEAR PRODUCTION FACILITIES — 352 E: NOTES ON D. B. STILLMAN’S TEN VISITS TO THE CHINESE NUCLEAR WEAPON COMPLEX, 1990-2001 354 F: CHRONOLOGY 364 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 382 INDEX 385 Vill