THE NATURAL AND SOCIETAL CHALLENGES OF THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE A REFERENCE WORK THE INTERNATIONAL NORTHERN SEA ROUTE PROGRAMME (INSROP) Principal cooperative partners: Central Marine Research and Design Institute St. Petersburg, Russia The Frid~ofNansen Institute Lysaker, Norway Ship & Ocean Foundation Tokyo, Japan THE NATURAL AND SOCIETAL CHALLENGES OF THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE A REFERENCE WORK Editor in chief Willy 0streng The FridtjofNansen Institute, Lysaker, Norway Norwegian University ofS cience and Technology, Trondheim, Norway Editorial Advisors: Hiromitsu Kitagawa Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan Vsevolod I. Peresypkin Central Marine Research and Design Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia Authors: Lawson W. Brigham, Douglas Brubaker, Edgar Gold, Alexander G. Granberg, Vladimir D. Grishchenko, Johnny-Leo L. Jernsletten, Kazuhiko ~mesaki, Anatoly L. Kolodkin, Kjell A. Moe, Willy 0streng, Gennady N. Semanov and Michael Tamvakis SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA. B.V. A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN 978-90-481-5376-3 ISBN 978-94-015-9409-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-015-9409-7 Printed on acid-free paper Cover: The illustration is a print of fine art named "Together" by the Norwegian artist Kaare Espolin Johnson. The motive illustrates the toil and moil of pulling a Russian lodya on land during the Arctic Pomor trade of the 19th century. The editor wishes to thank his good friend, Gisle Espolin Johnson-the son of the artist-for permission to use this beautiful print to illustrate the theme of the book. © Gisle Espolin Johnson (cover illustration) © 1999 Springer Science+ Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Central Marine Research and Design Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia in 1999 Softcover reprint of the hardcover I st edition 1999 The FridtjofNansen Institute, Lysaker, Norway Ship & Ocean Foundation, Tokyo, Japan No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner. To William and Henrik and their futures Contents FIGURES ...................................................................................................... xv TABLES ...................................................................................................... xix NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS .................................................................. xxi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................... xxv FOREWORD ............................................................................................. xxix Yohei Sasakawa FOREWORD ............................................................................................. xxxi Willy (!)streng 'THE INSROP SWEAT' WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT AND HOW WAS IT HANDLED? ........ xxxv Willy (!)streng 1 THE HISTORICAL AND GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT OF THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE: LESSONS TO BE CONSIDERED ........ ! Willy @streng 1.1 WHATISTHENSR? .......................................................................................... 2 1.1.1 Official Russian Definition .................................................................... 2 1.1.2 Unofficial Functional Definition of the NSR ......................................... 7 1.1.3 Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Criteria ofthe NSR ............................ 10 1.2 THESTATEOFNSRAFFAIRS ......................................................................... 15 1.3 FORMATIVEFACTORSINTHEHISTORYOFTHENSR ...................................... 18 1.3.1 Role of Functional Areas ..................................................................... 18 Commercial interests ........................................................................................ 18 Shipping in the Western Section oft he NSR ('The Kara Sea Route') ............. 20 Shipping on the Eastern Section oft he NSR .................................................. 21 Role of Military Interests ................................................................................. 22 1.3.2 Role of Foreign Involvement ............................................................... 27 Role ofF oreign Involvement in the Soviet and Russian Periods .................... 29 1.3 .3 Role of Systemic Political Factors ....................................................... 33 The Tsarist System ........................................................................................... 33 The Soviet system ............................................................................................ 34 Vlll Contents Soviet lnfrastructural Efforts in Navigation ...................................................... 37 The Post-Soviet System ................................................................................... .41 1.4 LESSONS TO BE CONSIDERED ......................................................................... 44 2 THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT, ICE NAVIGATION AND SHIP TECHNOLOGY ....................................................................... 47 Lawson W. Brigham, Vladimir D. Grishchenko and Kazuhiko Kamisaki 2.1 GEOGRAPIDCAL SETTING AND SIDP ROUTING ................................................ 48 2.1.1 Coastal Arctic seas ............................................................................... 48 2.1.2 Key Straits for Navigation ................................................................... 48 2.1.3 Route Selections and Distances ........................................................... 50 Distances and Primary Ports Along the NSR ................................................... .51 Ship Routes ...................................................................................................... .54 2.2 THE ICE ENVIRONMENT AND ITS MONITORING .............................................. 55 2.2.1 General Considerations ........................................................................ 55 2.2.2 Ice Massifs ........................................................................................... 62 2.2.3 Regions of Fast Ice and Winter Polynyas ............................................ 63 2.2.4 Autumn and Winter Sea Ice ................................................................. 65 2.2.5 Summer Ice Conditions ........................................................................ 69 2.2.6 Russian Hydrometeorological Information System ............................. 71 2.2.7 Satellite Remote Sensing of Sea Ice ..................................................... 74 2.3 NAVIGATIONALASPECTS ............................................................................... 78 2.3.1 Navigation and Communication .......................................................... 78 Coastal Navigation Aids .................................................................................... 78 Satellite Navigation Systems ............................................................................. 79 Radio Communication. ...................................................................................... 79 Satellite Communications ................................................................................. 80 2.3 .2 NSR Rules and Pilotage ....................................................................... 82 2.3.3 Navigation Charts ................................................................................ 83 2.3.4 Polar Icebreakers and Icebreak:ing Operations ..................................... 84 2.3.5 NSR Ship Ice Damage ......................................................................... 87 2.3.6 NSR Ship Speeds ................................................................................. 89 2.4 NSR SHIP TECHNOLOGY ................................................................................ 90 2.4.1 Design Constraints for NSR Cargo Ships ............................................ 90 2.4.2 Today's NSR Ship Technology ........................................................... 99 SA-15 Norilsk Class .......................................................................................... 99 Ship Speed in Level Pack Ice .......................................................................... 10 1 Ship Speed in Various Ice Conditions ............................................................. lOl Ship Speed in Escorted Navigation ................................................................. ! 03 Assessment of Hull Strength ........................................................................... 10 5 Contents IX Lunni-Class Icebreaking Tanker .................................................................... 108 2.4.3 Future NSR Ship Designs .................................................................. 109 40,000 dwt Icebreaking Bulk/Container Carrier ............................................. 109 50,000 DWT Icebreaking Bulk Carrier .......................................................... 112 2.4.4 Environmental Change and the NSR ................................................. 116 2.5 CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................................. 116 3 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS ........................................... 121 Kjell A. Moe and Gennady N Semanov 3.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 121 3.1.1 Arctic Environmental Concerns ......................................................... 122 3.1.2 The NSR and Russian Environmental Initiatives: Some Principles and Practice........................................................................................ 124 3.1.3 INSROP Sub-programme II: Environmental Factors: Concept and Role ............................................................................................. 125 3.2 THE NSR BIO-PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT ..................................................... 132 3.2.1 Some Physical Characteristics ........................................................... 132 Marine Environment: Ice, Water-masses & Circulation ................................. 132 Terrestrial Environment ................................................................................. 135 Fate ofPollution ............................................................................................. 135 3.2.2 Some Environmental Characteristics ................................................ 140 Marine Ecosystems ........................................................................................ 141 Terrestrial ecosystems .................................................................................... 142 Vulnerability .................................................................................................. 144 3.2.3 Concept and Role of the INSROP Dynamic Environmental Atlas ..... 146 Shoreline Features .......................................................................................... 148 Fish and Fisheries ........................................................................................... 150 Seabirds-Brunnich's Guillemot ................................................................... 152 Marine Mammals-Walrus ............................................................................ 152 Indigenous Peoples ......................................................................................... 153 3.3 NSR ACTIVITIES: SHIPS, NAVIGATION AND OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT FACTORS ...................................................................................................... 154 3.3.1 Some Basic Assumptions ................................................................... 156 The Conflict Matrix: Main Elements .............................................................. 156 Some Characteristics ofthe Current Transport on the NSR ........................... 158 Operational Pollution ..................................................................................... 159 Accidental Oil Pollution ................................................................................. 161 3.3 .2 Identifying Relevant Impact Factors - NSR Scenarios ...................... 162 3.4 ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY: REGULATORY FRAMEWORK AND INSTRUMENTS 165 3.4.1 Legal Instruments Pertaining to Shipping on the NSR ..................... 165 International Conventions and Regulations .................................................... 165 X Contents Russian Legislation ......................................................................................... 167 3.4.2 INSROP's Contribution to Environmental Safety of Navigation on the NSR ...................................................................... 169 Guidelines for Control of Pollution from Ships on the NSR ........................... 171 Manual for Ship-generated Waste Management ............................................. 171 Requirements to Environmental and Structural Safety of Ships ...................... 172 Environmental Safety of Nuclear Icebreakers ................................................. 173 Requirements to Shore Reception Facilities .................................................... 173 Shipboard Oil Pollution Emergency Plan (SO PEP) ....................................... 174 Coastal Oil Pollution Contingency Plan for the NSR (COPONSER) .............. 175 3.5 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS AND ANALYSES ........................................ 177 3.5.1 Principles and Practice ....................................................................... 178 Biological Effects -Environmental Damage .................................................. 178 Evaluation of Vulnerability and Potential Impact Level ................................. 182 3.5.2 Geographical Information System Applications ................................ 183 3.5.3 Selected Results and Discussions ....................................................... 185 Emissions to Air .............................................................................................. 185 Physical Disturbance ....................................................................................... 190 Discharges to Sea, Ice and Land ...................................................................... 193 Shallow water communities .......................................................................... 199 Plankton communities -ice-edge dynamics ................................................. 200 Fish ............................................................................................................... 201 Birds ............................................................................................................. 201 Marine mammals .......................................................................................... 203 Noise ............................................................................................................... 207 Changes of Development Pattern .................................................................... 209 3.5.4 Concluding Remarks .......................................................................... 210 3.6 RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................... 214 3.6.1 Current Environmental Research and Initiatives ................................ 214 3.6.2 Recommendations-Mitigating Measures ......................................... 216 Emissions to air ............................................................................................... 218 Physical Disturbance ....................................................................................... 218 Noise ............................................................................................................... 218 Discharges to Sea, Ice and Land ...................................................................... 218 Changes in Development Pattems ................................................................... 219 4 ECONOMY AND COMMERCIAL VIABILITY ........................... 221 Michael Tamvakis, Alexander G. Granberg and Edgar Gold 4.1 ACIDEVEMENTS TO DATE ............................................................................. 221 4.1.1 Historical Economic Development of the NSR ................................. 222 4.1.2 Cargo generation ................................................................................ 224 Domestic Traffic ............................................................................................. 224