The illicit trade of firearms, explosives and ammunition on the dark web

148 Pages·2017·2.73 MB·English

A
Behind the curtain
Chapter title
The illicit trade of firearms,
explosives and ammunition
on the dark web
Giacomo Persi Paoli, Judith Aldridge,
Nathan Ryan, Richard Warnes
For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2091

Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK
© Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation
R® is a registered trademark.
RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps to improve policy and
decision making through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This
representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only.
Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to
duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete.
Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of
its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking
permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
Support RAND
Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at
www.rand.org/giving/contribute
www.rand.org
www.rand.org/randeurope
i
Preface
The potential role of the dark web in facilitating which also contributed to the study by providing
trade in firearms, ammunition and explosives an independent assessment of the international
has gained increased public attention following legal framework’s applicability to the subject of
recent terrorist attacks in Europe. However, the dark web-enabled arms trafficking. This assess-
hidden and obscured parts of the web are used ment is attached to this study.
also by criminals and other types of individuals
RAND Europe is a not-for-profit independent
to procure or sell a wide range of weapons and
policy research organisation that aims to
associated products through encrypted mar-
improve policy and decision making in the
ketplaces and vendor shops.
public interest through objective research
While the use of these platforms as facilitators and analysis. RAND Europe’s clients include
for illicit drug trade has increasingly been the national governments, militaries, multilateral
subject of research by a number of academics, institutions and other organisations with a
little has been done to conduct a systematic need for rigorous, independent, interdisciplinary
investigation of the role of the dark web in rela- analysis. Part of the global RAND Corporation,
tion to the illegal arms trade, drawing on the RAND Europe has offices in Cambridge, UK,
insights offered by primary data. and Brussels, Belgium.
To address this gap, and with a view to support- For more information please contact:
ing policy and decision makers, RAND Europe Dr Giacomo Persi Paoli
and the University of Manchester designed this Research Leader,
research project, funded by the UK Partnership Defence, Security and Infrastructure
for Conflict, Crime and Security Research RAND Europe
(PaCCS) under the Transnational Organised Westbrook Centre, Milton Road
Crime theme, which is led by the Economic Cambridge CB4 1YG
and Social Research Council on behalf of the United Kingdom
Partnership. This project was officially endorsed Tel. [phone]
by the Global Firearms Programme of the [email protected]
United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime,

iii
Table of contents
Preface i
Table of contents iii
Figures v
Boxes vi
Tables vii
Executive Summary ix
Acknowledgements xvii
Abbreviations xix
1. Introduction 1
1.1. The emergence of the weapons trade on the dark web and reported cases 2
1.2. Objectives and overview of the methodology 5
1.3. Structure of the report 8
2. How dark web markets function to facilitate illegal trading 9
2.1. What is the dark web? 9
2.2. Types of marketplaces on the dark web 9
2.3. Appearance and services 12
2.4. Buying and selling on dark web markets 14
2.5. Establishing trust: how buyers and sellers choose one another 16
2.6. Payment on dark web markets 19
2.7. Shipping and receiving goods 21
3. Dark web arms trafficking: estimating the size and scope of the market 23
3.1. Identifying dark web marketplaces trading firearms, ammunition and explosives 23
3.2. Estimating the size and scope of the dark web-enabled arms trade 25
4. Dark web arms trafficking: estimating the value of the market 37
4.1. Price of arms-related products available for sale 37
4.2. Cryptomarket sales for arms-related products and services 42
4.3. Understanding firearms vendors 47
iv Behind the curtain
5. Dark web arms trafficking: assessing shipping routes and techniques 53
5.1. The challenges of estimating shipping routes 53
5.2. Estimating where firearms are shipped from 54
5.3. Estimating where firearms are shipped to 57
5.4. Understanding shipping techniques 60
6. Overarching implications 65
6.1. Impact on the illicit firearms market 65
6.2. Impact on market actors 69
6.3. Law enforcement and policy implications 71
7. Conclusions 77
References 83
Annex – Overview of international legal instruments and their
applicability to illicit firearms trafficking on the dark web 95

Appendix A – Glossary 107
Appendix B – A brief history of firearms on the dark web 111
Appendix C – Who is using the dark web to procure firearms? 117
Appendix D - Firearms make breakdown 121
Appendix E – Expert workshop agenda 125
v
Figures
Figure Ex.1 Overview of the research approach xi
Figure 1.1 Overview of the research approach 7
Figure 2.1 The location of clear, deep and dark webs, and cryptomarkets 11
Figure 2.2 Screenshot of the homepage for the Alphabay cryptomarket 12
Figure 2.3 Screenshot of the homepage for the Black Market Guns vendor shop 14
Figure 2.4 Overview of payments using escrow services 20
Figure 2.5 Overview of multi-signature escrow 20
Figure 5.1 Worldwide distribution of arms vendors by region (n=339) 58
Figure 5.2 Available shipping routes for all firearms listings (n=339) 58
Figure 5.3 Shipping routes used for firearms listings generating sales (n=46) 61
vi Behind the curtain
Boxes
Box 2.1 A model of the clear web, deep web and dark web 10
Box 2.2 The risk of vendor scamming 18
Box 3.1 DATACRYPTO functioning 26
Box 3.2 Identifying the arms-related listings for this study 27
Box 3.3 Information on markings 32
Box 3.4 Sample eBook listing (the first ten of 35 named parts and components) 34
Box 4.1 Customer feedback as a proxy measure for transactions 43
Box 4.2 Payment methods 47
Box 4.3 Gauging the perception of firearm vendor scamming as
evidenced in darknet community discussion 50
Box 5.1 Available shipping locations used by firearms vendors 56
Box 6.1 Cryptomarkets and Business-to-Consumer e-commerce 67
vii
Tables
Table 3.1 Cryptomarkets listed on Deepdotweb: numbers classified as selling arms 24
Table 3.2 Cryptomarkets selling arms-related listings from which data was collected 28
Table 3.3 Frequency of arms-related product categories 29
Table 3.4 Firearms types listed for sale, by replica and new/used 31
Table 3.5 Firearm models (n) for firearm makes listings > 10 33
Table 3.6 Weapon types (% based on 178 subsample) 35
Table 4.1 Price (per unit) by product type listed for sale 38
Table 4.2 Price (per unit) of live firearms listed for sale 39
Table 4.3 Price (per unit) of live pistols listed for sale for the most common makes 40
Table 4.4 Active listings, transactions and gross revenue by product type 42
Table 4.5 Estimated monthly transactions and gross revenue by firearms types 44
Table 4.6 Active listings, transactions and gross revenue by make 45
Table 4.7 Firearm vendors and cross-market selling 48
Table 4.8 Mean customer feedback ratings and listing lifespan by product type 49
Table 5.1 Firearm listings where vendors state products are shipped from:
listings generating sales, estimated transactions per month and
estimated gross revenue location (ordered by monthly gross revenue) 55
Table 5.2 Available shipping destinations for firearms: listings generating sales,
estimated transactions per month and estimated gross revenue
location (ordered by monthly revenue) 57
Table 5.3 Available shipping routes for all firearms (n=339) 59
Table 5.4 Shipping routes used for firearms listings generating sales (n=46) 60
Table 6.1 Estimated percentage of offline population by region 66
Table 6.2 Summary of law enforcement intervention strategies and related barriers 72