The Economist (August 10th 2019)

66 Pages·2019·13.085 MB·English

by  The Economist

Guns: America’s tragic exceptionalism
Modi’s bad move on Kashmir
From trade war to currency war
Seed capital—the business of fertility
AUGUST10TH–16TH2019
How will this end?
What’s at stake in Hong Kong
Contents The EconomistAugust10th2019 3
The world this week Britain
6 Asummary of political 19 Can anyone stop no-deal?
andfinancialnews
20 5G in Scotland’s islands
21 Justice by algorithm
Leaders
21 Apre-election splurge?
9 The future of Hong Kong
22 Free ports’ pros and cons
How will this end?
23 Life on the Irish border
10 US-China trade
Dangerous escalation 24 BagehotTheresa2.0
10 Mass shootings
It’s the guns Europe
11 Kashmir’s status 25 Migrants in Italy
Modi’sbadmove 26 Norway’s fish-smugglers
12 Endangeredspecies 26 Brussels’ revolving doors
On the cover
Theelephantintheroom
27 Social care in the
If China were to react brutally,
Netherlands
the consequences would be
Letters
27 Tension in the Black Sea
disastrous—and not just for
14 Onhappinessand
Hong Kong: leader,page 9. 28 The Faroes’ puffins
politics,ZhaoZiyang,
Asia’s pre-eminent financial 29 CharlemagneThe
America,plastic,Boris
centre is on the brink: briefing, easternsummer
Johnson,theMoon
page16
United States
•Guns: America’s tragic Briefing
exceptionalismOther rich 30 Mass shootings
16 TurmoilinHongKong
countries do not have frequent Seeingred 31 Toni Morrison
mass shootings. There is a
32 Sheriff Tom Dart
simple reason for that: leader,
33 Wyoming coal
page 10. America grapples with a
lethal mix of terrorism and lax 34 LexingtonRowing about
gun laws,page 30 rights
•Modi’s bad move on Kashmir
The Americas
The revocation of its autonomy
points to a radical nationalist 35 Espírito Santo, Brazil’s
agenda: leader,page 11. model state
Narendra Modi dashes the old 36 Argentina’s election
rules in a bid to remake a
37 Venezuela’s sanctions
troubled territory, page 42
37 Cruises and the Caribbean
•From trade war to currency
warAmerica cannot have a
strong economy, rising tariffs
Middle East & Africa
and a weak dollar all at the same
38 African universities
time: leader,page 10. Hostilities
39 More mathematicians
escalate, and the fog of war
descends, page 57 40 Liberia on the edge
40 Ride-sharing in Lebanon
•Seed capitalism—the
ButtonwoodHow
business of fertility Investors 41 Egypt’s poor
yuan-dollar became the
are pouring money into
world’s most closely
companies that promise to help
watched asset price,
people conceive,page 51
page 58
1 Contents continues overleaf
4 Contents The EconomistAugust10th2019
Asia Finance & economics
42 Modi’s Kashmir strike 57 The trade war escalates
43 Uzbekistan’s gulag 58 ButtonwoodThe yuan
cracks seven
44 Japan’s constitution
44 Race in Singapore 59 John Flint leaves HSBC
59 The Fed and payments
60 Bond yields turn negative
61 Global banks in India
China
62 Free exchangeThe growth
45 Tensions with Taiwan
ofshrinkflation
46 Saving old buildings
47 ChaguanThe Huawei Science & technology
conundrum
64 Space debris and safety
65 The IPCC land-use report
66 The virtues of bush fires
International
48 The trade in
endangered species
Books & arts
67 Walter Bagehot
68 Maternal fears
69 Life in New Orleans
Business 69 Art and activism in
Australia
51 The fertility business
70 JohnsonSizevsimplicity
52 Fertility benefits
53 Investors flee the Permian
Economic & financial indicators
53 Steelmaking and tariffs
72 Statisticson42economies
54 Apps for the old
54 Cash in America Inc Graphic detail
54 Private equity in Germany 73 SiliconValley’sgiantslookmoreentrenchedthaneverbefore
55 Bartleby Profiting from
holidays Obituary
56 Schumpeter Cyber Exxon 74 Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, Indonesia’s voice of good sense
Valdez
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6 The world this week Politics The EconomistAugust10th2019
periodlastyear.Morethan620 America’simmigrationagency disarm some 5,000 fighters
peoplehavedied. arrested680illegalmigrant and peacefully contest elec-
workersatsevenfactoriesin tions scheduled to be held in
NewZealand’sgovernment Mississippi.Somewerere- October. It waged a guerrilla
introducedabilltodecriminal- leasedandtoldtoappearatan war from 1977 to 1992 before
iseabortionandallowwomen immigrationcourt;others laying down its guns, but took
toseektheprocedureupto20 weresenttoadetentioncentre up arms again in 2012.
weeksintoapregnancy.At inLouisiana.Theoperation,
presentawomanhastoget saidtobethebiggestofitskind The unWorld Food
permissionforanabortion, inasinglestate,hadbeen Programme said that 5m peo-
andmayhaveoneonlyifher plannedformonths. ple in Zimbabwe—a third of
pregnancyendangersher the population—are at risk of
In its most ominous warning physicalormentalhealth.New DonaldTrumpwithdrewhis starvation. The country was
yet to protesters in Hong Zealand’sabortionrateis pickofJohnRatcliffeasthe the region’s breadbasket until
Kong, China said the demon- neverthelesshigherthanin newdirectorofnational the government began stealing
strators were “playing with mostEuropeancountries. intelligence,justdaysafter farms and handing them to
fire” and on “the verge of a very puttinghisnameforward. ruling-party cronies.
dangerous situation”. A day Manyhadcriticisedtheselec-
earlier a strike hit the city’s Wouldyoupleasejustgo tion,asMrRatcliffe’sonly
transport system and led to Americaimposedacomplete credentialsseemedtobea Rounding up the opposition
more than 200 flight cancella- economicembargoonthe staunchdefenceofMrTrump There were more demonstra-
tions. The protesters, who governmentofVenezuela, atarecentcongressionalhear- tions in Moscowagainst the
initially wanted an extradition freezingallitsassetsand ingontheMuellerreport. authorities’ decision to
bill to be scrapped, are now threateningsanctionsagainst exclude opposition figures
calling for Carrie Lam to resign firmsthatdobusinesswithit, PuertoRico’sSupremeCourt from contesting next month’s
as Hong Kong’s leader and for unlesstheyhaveanexemp- ruledthattheappointmentofa municipal elections. Hundreds
direct elections. China’s tion.Themovestepsupthe newgovernorbyRicardoRos- of protesters were arrested,
spokesman in Hong Kong said pressureonNicolásMaduro’s selló,whowasforcedfrom including Lyubov Sobol, one of
Ms Lam was staying put. socialistregime.America, officebystreetprotests,was the leading candidates to have
alongwith50-oddothercoun- unconstitutionalandhewould been barred from appearing on
India’s Hindu-nationalist tries,recognisesJuanGuaidó, havetostepdown.Thecourt the ballot.
government unexpectedly theoppositionleader,asVene- sidedwiththeterritory’sSen-
ended the autonomy granted to zuela’spresident,thoughMr ate,whichhadnotbeengivena Italy’sgovernment tightened
Indian-administered Kash- Maduroisstillsupportedby voteontheappointment.After the laws on dealing with
mir, splitting it in two, putting ChinaandRussia. thecourt’sdecisionWanda migrants, sharply increasing
local party leaders under house Vázquezwassworninas the fines that can be imposed
arrestand ordering non-resi- TheheadofBrazil’sinstitute governor,thoughshehadsaid on ngos that rescue people at
dents, including tourists, to forspaceresearchwasfired shedidn’twantthejob. sea and bring them to Italy
leave. The governmentpoured afteraspatwithJairBolsonaro, without permission. The gov-
another 25,000 troops into the thecountry’spresident,over TributeswerepaidtoToni ernment had to present the
region. Pakistan said the move satelliteimagesthatshoweda Morrison,theonlyblack vote as an issue of confidence,
was illegal. Relations between sharpincreaseintheAmazon’s womantohavewontheNobel but easily prevailed.
the two countries were already deforestation.MrBolsonaro prizeforliterature,whodied
fraught because of an attack by hadquestionedthedataand aged88.MsMorrison’swork
Pakistani-based jihadists on saiditbroughtBrazil’srep- wasbasedonnarrativesabout
Indian troops in Kashmir six utationintodisrepute. raceandslavery.
months ago.
The Taliban started a fresh All too familiar City carnage
round of talks with America’s The latest mass shootingsin A car-bomb in central Cairo
envoy for Afghanistan. The America elicited more pleas for killed 20 people. Egypt’sgov-
talks, held in Qatar, are aiming gun controls. Even some Re- ernment blamed a violent
for a deal under which America publicans said they would offshoot of the Muslim Broth-
will withdraw its troops from support “red-flag laws” that erhood for the blast.
Afghanistan, but only if the would take guns away from
Taliban starts negotiations those who are a violent risk. Britain joined an American-led Powered by kerosene in a
with the government in Kabul. The gunman who slaughtered initiative to provide naval backpack, Franky Zapata flew
As they were talking, the Tali- 22 people at a Walmart in protection to ships travelling across the English Channel on
ban claimed responsibility for heavily Hispanic El Paso was in through the Strait of Hormuz a hoverboard. The French
a bomb that killed 14 people custody, as police trawled amid heightened tensions with inventor, who demonstrated
and wounded 145 in Kabul. through an anti-immigrant Iran. In July Iran seized a Brit- his device at this year’s Bastille
screed he had written. The ish-flagged oil tanker. Day parade, took 22 minutes to
The Philippinesdeclared a shooter who murdered nine make the 35km (22-mile) cross-
national dengue epidemic. At people, including his sister, in Mozambique’s president ing. A handy alternative to the
least 146,000 cases were re- Daytonwas killed by police signed a peace agreement with Eurostar when it is next dis-
corded from January to July, officers on patrol after 30 the leader of Renamo, a rebel rupted by weather/strikes/
double the number in the same seconds of mayhem. movement. Renamo said it will technical issues. 1
The world this week Business The EconomistAugust10th2019 7
America officially categorised chemicalsthatJapanhastight- throughincreasinglychoppy Universal’s vast catalogue of
China as a currency manip- eneditsgripon,whichSouth watersstirredbytradeten- artists, which include Abba,
ulator forthe first time in 25 Koreacallsanembargo.This sionsbetweenAmericaand the Beatles, Drake, Elton John
years, after the yuan weakened weekJapanapproveditsfirst China.Mostofhsbc’sprofit and Taylor Swift.
past the psychologically signif- shipmentofhigh-techmateri- comesfromAsia.Thebankis
icant mark of seven to the altoSouthKoreainamonth. expectedtotakeitstime
dollar, the lowest point for the Therowwassparkedbya choosingasuccessor.
Chinese currency since the politicalspat.
financial crisis. The yuan AreportpreparedfortheInter-
trades narrowly in China governmentalPanelonCli-
around an exchange rate set by The golden girl mateChangesuggestedthata
the central bank. It dismissed The euselected Kristalina moveawayfrommeatand
the idea that the yuan had been Georgievaas its candidate to towardsplant-baseddiets
manipulated, submitting that head theimf, but only after the couldhelpfightglobalwarm-
its depreciation was caused rancorous exercise concluded ing,butitpulledbackfrom
instead by “shifts in market with some telephone diplo- recommendingthatpeople
dynamics”, which include macy. Ms Georgievais cur- becomevegetarians.Compa-
“escalating trade frictions”. rently the second-highest niessellingplant-basedpro- The Harland and Wolff
official at the World Bank. ductshaveseentheirshare shipyard in Belfast entered
Those trade frictions had Under an informal convention, pricessoarthisyear. administration, marking the
indeed escalated when Donald Europe gets to pick the manag- probable end of a business that
Trump earlier announced 10% ing director of the imf(and Thelatesttakeoverinthe built the Titanicand other
tariffson an additional America the president of the consolidatingpayments famous vessels. The yard once
$300bn-worth of Chinese World Bank), so Ms Georgieva industrysawMastercard employed 15,000 workers, but
goods in the two countries’ is favoured to get the job in agreeingtobuyNets,aDanish now just 122 work on repairs. It
trade war. Mr Trump said he October, when the imfwill real-timepaymentsprovider, has not built a ship since 2003.
was punishing China for not choose its leader. But it must for$3.2bn.ItisMastercard’s
keeping its promise to buy first change a rule that says a biggestacquisitiontodate. Barneys New York, a luxury
more American agricultural new managing director must department-store chain that
goods, among other things. be under 65. Ms Georgieva opened shop in 1923, filed for
turns 66 on August 13th. Take a chance on me bankruptcy protection and
Stockmarketshad a rocky Vivendi, a French media com- said it would close most of its
week, with the s&p500, Dow John Flint’s decision to step pany, said it was considering stores. The company is restruc-
Jones Industrial Average and down as chief executive of selling a stake of at least 10% of turing its debt and expects to
nasdaqindices recording their hsbcafter just 18 months in its Universal Musicbusiness keep seven stores open, in-
worst trading day of the year so the job took markets by sur- to Tencent, a Chinese tech- cluding its flagship premises
far. Most Asian currencies prise. His resignation was nology conglomerate, possibly in Manhattan, made famous by
tumbled following the yuan’s made “by mutual agreement raising that to 20% at a later “Sex and the City”. Its insolven-
depreciation. But the yen, with the board”, which report- date. If completed, a deal might cy proves that the upheaval in
considered to be a haven in edly lost confidence in Mr allow Tencent to combine its retailing is not confined to
uncertain times, soared Flint’s ability to steer the bank expertise in streaming with suburban shopping malls.
against the dollar. The yields
ongovernment bonds, anoth-
er safe bet, fell as investors
ploughed into the market.
Investors were also unnerved
by a wave of larger-than-ex-
pected interest-rate cuts.
India’s central bank shaved
0.35 of a percentage point off
its main rate, to 5.4%; New
Zealand’s slashed its bench-
mark rate from 1.5% to 1%; and
Thailand’s first cut in four
years left its main rate at 1.5%.
All three were pessimistic
about the prospects for growth.
A trade dispute caused sales of
cars made in Japanto plunge
in South Korealast month.
Samsung, South Korea’s big-
gest maker of smartphones
and memory chips, said it was
searching for substitute
suppliers of some essential
Leaders Leaders 9
How will this end?
If China were to react brutally, the consequences would be disastrous—and not just for Hong Kong
It is summer, and the heat is oppressive. Thousands of stu- tanks.ItscontroloverHongKong,wherepeoplehaveaccess to
dents have been protesting for weeks, demanding freedoms uncensored news, is much shakier. Some of the territory’s citi-
that the authorities are not prepared to countenance. Officials zens would resist, directly or in a campaign of civil disobedience.
have warned them to go home, and they have paid no attention. The army could even end up using lethal force, even if that was
Among the working population, going about its business, irrita- not the original plan.
tion combines with sympathy. Everybody is nervous about how With or without bloodshed, an intervention would under-
this is going to end, but few expect an outcome as brutal as the mine business confidence in Hong Kong and with it the fortunes
massacre of hundreds and maybe thousands of citizens. of the many Chinese companies that rely on its stockmarket to
Today, 30 years on, nobody knows how many were killed in raise capital. Hong Kong’s robust legal system, based on British
and around Tiananmen Square, in that bloody culmination of common law, still makes it immensely valuable to a country that
student protests in Beijing on June 4th 1989. The Chinese re- lacks credible courts of its own. The territory may account for a
gime’s blackout of information about that darkest of days is tacit much smaller share of China’s gdpthan when Britain handed it
admission of how momentous an event it was. But everybody back to China in 1997, but it is still hugely important to the main-
knows that Tiananmen shaped the Chinese regime’s relations land. Cross-border bank lending booked in Hong Kong, much of
with the country and the world. Even a far less bloody interven- it to Chinese companies, has more than doubled over the past
tion in Hong Kong would reverberate as widely (see Briefing). two decades, and the number of multinational firms whose re-
What began as a movement against an extradition bill, which gional headquarters are in Hong Kong has risen by two-thirds.
would have let criminal suspects in Hong Kong be handed over The sight of the army on the city’s streets would threaten to put
for trial by party-controlled courts in mainland China, has an end to all that, as companies up sticks to calmer Asian bases.
evolved into the biggest challenge from dissenters since Tianan- The intervention of the People’s Liberation Army would also
men. Activists are renewing demands for greater democracy in change how the world sees Hong Kong. It would drive out many
the territory. Some even want Hong Kong’s independence from of the foreigners who have made Hong Kong their home, as well
China. Still more striking is the sheer size and persistence of the as Hong Kongers who, anticipating such an eventuality, have ac-
mass of ordinary people. A general strike called quired emergency passports and boltholes else-
for August 5th disrupted the city’s airport and where. And it would have a corrosive effect on
mass-transit network. Tens of thousands of civil China’s relations with the world.
servants defied their bosses to stage a peaceful Hong Kong has already become a factor in the
public protest saying that they serve the people, cold war that is developing between China and
not the current leadership. A very large number America. China is enraged by the high-level re-
of mainstream Hong Kongers are signalling that ception given in recent weeks to leading mem-
they have no confidence in their rulers. bers of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy camp dur-
As the protests have escalated, so has the ing visits to Washington. Their meetings with
rhetoric of China and the Hong Kong government. On August 5th senior officials and members of Congress have been cited by Chi-
Carrie Lam, the territory’s crippled leader, said that the territory na as evidence that America is a “black hand” behind the unrest,
was “on the verge of a very dangerous situation”. On August 6th using it to pile pressure on the party as it battles with America
an official from the Chinese government’s Hong Kong office felt over trade (a conflict that escalated this week, when China let its
the need to flesh out the implications. “We would like to make it currency weaken—see next leader).
clear to the very small group of unscrupulous and violent crimi- Were the Chinese army to go so far as to shed protesters’
nals and the dirty forces behind them: those who play with fire blood, relations would deteriorate further. American politicians
will perish by it.” Anybody wondering what this could mean would clamour for more sanctions, including suspension of the
should watch a video released by the Chinese army’s garrison in act that says Hong Kong should be treated as separate from the
Hong Kong. It shows a soldier shouting “All consequences are at mainland, upon which its prosperity depends. China would hit
your own risk!” at rioters retreating before a phalanx of troops. back. Sino-American relations could go back to the dark days
The rhetoric is designed to scare the protesters off the streets. after Tiananmen, when the two countries struggled to remain on
And yet the oppressive nature of Xi Jinping’s regime, the Com- speaking terms and business ties slumped. Only this time, China
munist Party’s ancient terror of unrest in the provinces and its is a great deal more powerful, and the tensions would be com-
historical willingness to use force, all point to the danger of mensurately more alarming.
something worse. If China were to send in the army, once an un- None of this is inevitable. China has matured since 1989. It is
thinkable idea, the risks would be not only to the demonstrators. more powerful, more confident and has an understanding of the
Such an intervention would enrage Hong Kongers as much as role that prosperity plays in its stability—and of the role that
the declaration of martial law in 1989 aroused the fury of Beijing’s Hong Kong plays in its prosperity. Certainly, the party remains as
residents. But the story would play out differently. The regime determined to retain power as it was 30 years ago. But Hong Kong
had more control over Beijing then than it does over Hong Kong is not Tiananmen Square, and 2019 is not 1989. Putting these
now. In Beijing the party had cells in every workplace, with the protests down with the army would not reinforce China’s stabil-
power to terrorise those who had not been scared enough by the ity and prosperity. It would jeopardise them. 7
10 Leaders The EconomistAugust10th2019
US-China trade
Dangerous miscalculations
America cannot have a strong economy, a trade war and a weak dollar all at the same time
Since thetradewarbeganin2018thedamagedonetotheglo- ThereisnodenyingthatChinahasmanipulated its exchange
bal economy has been surprisingly slight. America has grown rate in the past. But today a different dynamic is playing out
healthily and the rest of the world has muddled along. But this around the world. Mr Trump wants a booming economy, protect-
week the picture darkened as the confrontation between Ameri- ed by tariffs and boosted by a cheap dollar, and when he doesn’t
ca and China escalated, with more tariffs threatened and a bitter get them he lashes out. But economic reality makes these three
row erupting over China’s exchange rate. Investors fear the dis- objectives hard to reconcile. Tariffs hurt foreign exporters and
pute will trigger a recession, and there are ominous signs in the dampen growth beyond America’s borders; weaker growth in
markets—share prices fell and government-bond yields sank to turn leads to weaker currencies, as business becomes cautious
near-record lows. To avoid a downturn, both sides need to com- and central banks ease policy in response. The effect is particu-
promise. But for that to happen President Donald Trump and his larly pronounced when America is growing faster than other rich
advisers must rethink their strategy. If the realisation has not countries, as it has recently. The dollar’s enduring strength is a
dawned yet, it soon should: America cannot have a cheap curren- result, in part, of Mr Trump’s policies, not of a global conspiracy.
cy, a trade conflict and a thriving economy. Unless this fact sinks in soon, real harm will be done to the
The latest spike in tensions began on August global economy. Faced with the uncertainty
1st, when the White House threatened to impose Chinese yuan per $ created by a vicious superpower brawl, firms in
a further round of duties on $300bn of Chinese Inverted scale America and elsewhere are cutting investment,
6.0
exports by the start of September. China re- hurting growth further. Lower interest rates are
6.5
sponded four days later by telling its state-run making Europe’s rickety banks even more frag-
companies to stop buying American agricultur- 7.0 ile. China could face a destabilising flood of
al goods. On the same day it let its heavily man- 7.5 money trying to leave its borders, as happened
aged currency pass through a rate of seven 2008 10 12 14 16 19 in 2015. And further escalation is possible as
against the dollar, a threshold which may seem both sides reach for economic weapons that
arbitrary but is symbolically important (see Buttonwood). were considered unthinkable a few years ago. America could in-
That lit a fuse beneath the Oval Office. Mr Trump has long tervene to weaken the dollar, undermining its reputation for un-
claimed that other countries, including China, keep their cur- fettered capital markets. China or America could impose sanc-
rencies artificially cheap to boost their exports, hurting America. tions on more of each other’s multinational firms, in the same
He has been griping about the strong dollar for months. In June way that America has blacklisted Huawei, or suspend the li-
he accused Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, cences of banks that operate in both countries, causing havoc.
of unfairly weakening the euro by hinting at rate cuts. Hours As it pursues an ever more reckless trade confrontation, the
after the yuan dropped, America’s Treasury designated China a White House may imagine that the Federal Reserve can ride to
“currency manipulator” and promised to eliminate its “unfair the rescue by cutting rates again. But that misunderstands the
competitive advantage”. As the hostilities rose, markets depth of unease now felt in factories, boardrooms and trading
swooned, with ten-year bond yields in America reaching 1.71%, floors around the world. In September talks between America
as investors judged that the Federal Reserve will slash interest and China are set to resume. It is time for a settlement. The world
rates to try to keep the expansion alive (see Finance section). economy cannot stand much more of this.7
Mass shootings in America
It’s the guns
Other rich countries do not have frequent mass shootings. There is a simple reason for that
The two mass shootings within 24 hours of each other last about mass murders, too. The shooter in Dayton left no explana-
weekend, one in El Paso, Texas, the other in Dayton, Ohio, tion for his actions. His social-media accounts show he was a mi-
were horrifying. Yet at the same time they were not surpris- sogynist with an interest in leftish causes. The El Paso killer
ing—at least in a purely statistical sense. So far this year America posted a manifesto filled with racist anxiety about the replace-
has averaged one shooting in which four or more people are ment of whites by Hispanics, as well as language that could have
killed or injured every single day. The death toll at the El Paso been drawn from a Trump rally (see United States section).
Walmart was 22. And that awful number made it only the fifth- After the killings, people have blamed any number of
deadliest shooting this decade. The ten people killed in Dayton causes—from mental illness and video games to the internet and
put the murder spree there down at number 11on the same list. the social alienation of young men. Yet cause and effect are hard
When police officers are trying to solve a murder they look at to pin down, as shown by the row about Donald Trump’s culpa-
motive and opportunity. That framework is useful for thinking bility for what happened in El Paso. His role matters not just be-1
The EconomistAugust10th2019 Leaders 11
2cause, as president, he has a responsibility to unite the country, Yet it is also true that mass shootings were common before Mr
but also because America’s biggest mass shootings come in pat- Trump took office and will continue after he has gone. The El
terns. In the 1980s there was a wave of post-office shootings. Lat- Paso shooter’s main fixation was immigration, but he also wrote
er, shootings at schools and universities became a way for a cer- in his manifesto about excessive corporate power and environ-
tain type of young man to achieve fame. More recently there has mental damage. The Dayton shooter was not a Trump supporter
been an increase in acts of terrorism perpetrated by white men at all. In such cases it is impossible to know whether the ideology
who believe they are locked in a struggle against non-whites and makes the person violent, or whether the violent desires come
Jews. This thread connects the shooting at a Charleston church first and the half-baked justification follows after.
in 2015 to the one at a Pittsburgh synagogue last year and to the El If motive can be hard to attribute precisely, and policy corre-
Paso Walmart shooting. spondingly hard to design, the same is not true of opportunity.
That is where Mr Trump’s language comes in. His presidential White nationalists can be found in many Western countries, as
campaign began with an impromptu speech in can politicians who exploit racial divisions. But
which he said Mexico was sending rapists in a society where someone with murderous in-
across the border, and it continued in that vein. tent can wield only a kitchen knife or a baseball
The White House has not changed him. At a rally bat, the harm he can do is limited. When such a
in Florida in May, where he denounced migrants person has access to a semi-automatic weapon,
at the southern border, someone in the crowd which can hold 100 rounds of ammunition and
shouted that the solution was to shoot them. discharge them in under a minute, it is griev-
“That’s only in the Panhandle you can get away ous—and hence, lamentably, more seductive.
with that kind of statement,” responded Mr The answer is obvious: restrict the owner-
Trump, to laughter and cheers. After the El Paso shootings, as ship of certain types of guns, as New Zealand did after the shoot-
after Charlottesville, the president, reading from a teleprompter, ings in Christchurch, and introduce proper background checks.
condemned white supremacists and bigots. Yet the next time he Such measures will not prevent all gun deaths. The constitution
is in front of a big crowd he will be at it again. will not be rewritten and too many weapons are in circulation.
If you accept that the words people say have some effect, then Yet given the number of fatalities, even a 5% reduction would
the words that a president says must matter more. There is no save many innocent lives. Mass shootings in America have be-
way to calculate the probability of such racially divisive language come like deforestation in Brazil or air pollution in China—a
encouraging someone to act out violent racist fantasies, but it is man-made environmental hazard that is hard to stop. Such haz-
not one and it is not zero. Run the experiment enough times with ards are not cleaned up overnight. That should not prevent peo-
enough people and at some point it becomes lethal. ple from making a start.7
Kashmir’s status
Modi’s bad move
The revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy points to a radical nationalist agenda
When the princely state of Jammu & Kashmir joined the Indians. Direct rule would bypass Kashmir’s fossilised political
fledgling Indian union in October 1947, it had little choice dynasties, dragging the state into the political mainstream.
in the matter. Pakistan-backed tribesmen had invaded; only In- That is a forlorn hope. For one thing, Mr Modi enacted the
dian troops could repel them. The consolation was that Kashmir change through repression and subterfuge. Kashmiri political
was promised a lot of autonomy. That came to include trappings leaders were arrested, internet and phone networks were shut
of statehood—a separate constitution and flag—and more sub- down and public assembly was forbidden. In the week before the
stantial differences, such as a ban on outsiders buying property. move 30,000 troops were sent into the region, and another 8,000
On August 5th the government of Narendra Modi, India’s afterwards. The government has also resorted to constitutional
prime minister, tore up this compact. That has electrified his chicanery, exploiting the fact that Kashmir’s state legislature—
Hindu-nationalist supporters, who want Kashmir, India’s only which would normally have to assent to such changes—was dis-
Muslim-majority state, brought to heel. But it is likely to unleash solved over a year ago. India’s Supreme Court ought to look un-
forces that do just the opposite. kindly on such legal sleight of hand, which would allow any oth-
Mr Modi’s plan is far-reaching. Jammu & Kashmir, already er state to be similarly conjured out of existence.
split into two in 1947 when Pakistan grabbed one-third of it, has Second, the move is likely to compound Kashmiris’ mistrust
been divided further, with the high desert of Ladakh hived off of the Indian government. The autonomy they were promised in
into a separate entity. Both the new parts were demoted from the republic’s earliest years had already been whittled down. As
constituents of a fully fledged state to mere “union territories”, early as the 1950s, the state’s independent-minded political lead-
ruled from New Delhi. And Article 370 of India’s constitution has ers were occasionally jailed. The government’s rigging of an elec-
been gutted, thus eliminating Kashmir’s autonomy at a stroke. tion in 1987 sparked an insurgency, stoked by Pakistan. Violence,
The repeal of that provision has been a totemic issue to Hindu which had subsided for many years, has ticked up recently, nota-
nationalists for decades. In their view, the state’s political privi- bly after the killing of a charismatic militant leader in 2016. Local
leges have fanned the flames of separatism by encouraging Kash- people are angry and disillusioned. Turnout in this year’s na-
miris to view themselves as irredeemably different from other tional elections was less than 30% in Kashmir and a dismal 14% 1
12 Leaders The EconomistAugust10th2019
2in the capital, Srinagar, compared to a national average of 62%. stan to clamp down on its proxies, the angrier Kashmiris are, the
But, as Kashmir’s bloody history suggests, things can get easier it is for Pakistani warmongers to recruit them. That in-
much worse. The potential demographic impact of the loss of au- creases the risk of military escalation—which, between two nuc-
tonomy might be its most incendiary consequence. Many fear lear-armed states, is a frightening prospect.
that the removal of restrictions on ownership of land and prop- Mr Modi portrays himself as a leader who is willing to break
erty by outsiders, which were embedded in its constitutional boldly with convention—from the botched withdrawal in 2016 of
deal, will lead to an influx of Hindu immigration. The gloomiest most cash in circulation to the (commendable) abolition of in-
Indian observers have drawn comparisons to China’s Sinicisa- stant Islamic divorce on July 30th. He is emboldened by a tower-
tion of Tibet and Xinjiang. ing majority in parliament, won in an election earlier this year,
Lastly, there may be ripples beyond Kashmir (see Asia sec- and pliant opposition parties. Yet his shake-up of Kashmir is an
tion). Those of India’s north-eastern states that also have been unmistakable signal of how he intends to exercise that power.
granted extra autonomy are worried that their own constitution- He might now turn to other Hindu nationalist fixations, such as
al carve-outs may be under threat. And Pakistan has reacted to the construction of a temple on the site of a mosque razed by a
Mr Modi’s move with a promise to “exercise all possible options radical Hindu mob in 1992. Mr Modi is setting himself more firm-
to counter the illegal steps”, which might include increasing ly on the path of zealous nationalism, ideological purity and reli-
support for jihadist groups. Although it is incumbent on Paki- gious chauvinism. It will lead nowhere good. 7
Endangered species
The elephant in the room
Now is not the time to liberalise the trade in endangered species
Nearly 6,000species of animals and about 30,000 species of should be rejected, consider what has happened to elephant
plants are listed in the various appendices of the Conven- numbers since citesmost recently authorised some legal trade,
tion on International Trade in Endangered Species (cites) to pro- when Botswana, Namibia and South Africa were allowed in 2007
tect them against over-exploitation. But as cites convenes its to sell a fixed amount of ivory to Japan, as a one-off. Elephant
three-yearly decision-making conference in Geneva this month, numbers started falling again. A survey conducted in 2014-15 es-
one animal, as so often in the past, will attract much of the atten- timated that elephant numbers had fallen by 30% across 18 coun-
tion: the African elephant. tries since 2007; another estimated a decline of over 100,000 ele-
The elephant is in many ways cites’s mascot. It was rescued phants, a fifth of the total number, between 2006 and 2015.
in 1989 from what seemed inevitable extinction after half the Increased poaching was at least partly to blame.
population had been wiped out by poaching in just a decade. These numbers suggest that the existence of even a small le-
That year elephants were included in cites’s Appendix I, under gal market increases the incentive for poaching. It allows black-
which virtually all international trade in their products is marketeers to pass off illegal ivory as the legal variety, and it sus-
banned. The slaughter slowed. This month’s meeting will con- tains demand. The biggest market is in China. Last year the gov-
sider competing proposals about how absolute the ban should ernment banned domestic sales of ivory, but its customs
be, since in some countries elephant popula- officials seize a lot of smuggled products—nota-
tions have recovered (see International sec- bly from Japan, which citeslicensed as a market
tion). Countries seeking a modest relaxation in 2007. For the poachers, ivory is fungible. If it
have a strong case to make. But it is not strong is hard to secure in Zambia or Botswana, anoth-
enough. The ban must stay. er country’s elephants will be in the gun-sights.
Understandably, countries that have done a Congo, Mozambique and, especially, Tanzania,
good job protecting their elephants feel this is have seen sharp declines. Unfair though it is,
unfair. They point out that they have devoted countries with better-run conservation pro-
huge resources to the elephant, through the grammes are, in effect, paying for the failings of
costs of law enforcement alone. And the real burden of all this is those with feeble institutions.
borne by poor local people who are in competition with wildlife In the long run technology can help make trade compatible
for resources, and sometimes in conflict with it—elephants can with conservation. In better-resourced national parks, drones
be destructive. People and governments, so the argument goes, are used to make it easier for rangers to spot poachers. dnatest-
need to have an economic stake in the elephants’ survival. The ing of ivory shipments can establish where they came from, and
ivory trade would give them one. thus whether they are legal. As prices fall and countries get rich-
That’s why Zambia wants its elephants moved to the slightly er, both technologies are likely to spread.
less restrictive Appendix II, which would allow some trade in, for The objection to trade in products of endangered species is
example, hunting trophies. Four other southern African coun- not moral, it is pragmatic. When the world is confident that it
tries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe), whose will boost elephant numbers rather than wipe them out, the ivo-
elephants were moved to Appendix II 20 years ago, want to be al- ry trade should be encouraged. Regrettably, that point has not yet
lowed to trade in their products, which, despite the change in come. And until it does, the best hope for the elephant—and even
status, they have mostly been prohibited from doing. more endangered species, such as rhinos—lies not in easing the
To understand why these reasonable-sounding proposals ban on trading their products, but in enforcing it better. 7
14 Letters The EconomistAugust10th2019
quantitytobemeasuredand asylum-seekersintotheir If Mr Johnson were to lose
The satisfied stay home exploitedbypoliticians. countries,butnotintotheir power in the coming months
I can think of at least one dereko’leary owncommunities,wherethe he may not, as you suggest, be
reason why the increase in Berkeley,California onlyoutsiderswhoareperma- Britain’s “shortest-serving
happiness in European coun- nentlywelcomearethosewho prime minister”. Counting
tries coincides with the rise of canaffordthehousepricesand only those who formed fully
populist parties (“The satisfac- Reformminded private-schoolfees. effective ministries, he could
tion paradox”, July 13th). The YourobituaryofLiPeng(July Mysuggestionisthatyou still beat George Canning, who
rise in happiness that has been 27th)describedZhaoZiyang, bearsomeoftheconsequences served as prime minister for 119
recorded in national surveys thegeneral-secretaryofthe ofyourvalues.Whynotcon- days in 1827. By a more gener-
does not necessarily affect CommunistPartyatthetimeof vertasmallamountofspaceat ous definition, the record
elections, as only a subset of theTiananmenmassacrein eachofyourofficesaroundthe could belong to the Earl of
the population turns out. And 1989,asa“seemingliberal”. worldintoaccommodationfor Bath, who held office for 48
populist parties are more Indeed,whenheranSichuan asylum-seekers?Yourgood hours in 1746.
successful at elections with a province,Zhaoallowedfarm actionwouldbewidelypub- Horace Walpole comment-
lower turnout. The parallel rise pricestofluctuate,causing licisedandsetanexamplethat ed that the earl “never
of happiness and populist productiontoincrease.Andin mightbereplicatedelsewhere. transacted one rash thing...and
parties is not puzzling if the 1988heinvitedMiltonFried- Thatis,ifyourdesiretodefeat left as much money in the
satisfied tend to stay at home mantobehisonlyWestern Trumpianbigotryisgenuine. Treasury as he found in it”.
on election day. consultantafterChinaexperi- thomashodson Sadly, Mr Johnson is also
dominik schraff encedhighinflation.Friedman London unlikely to match these
Post-doctoral researcher saidthatZhaowasthebest accomplishments.
Centre for Comparative and economisthehadevermetina jacob williams
International Studies socialistcountry. Letplasticsink London
ethZurich bertrandhorwitz Plasticpollutionthatremains
Asheville,NorthCarolina localtoitssource,eitheron Mr Johnson’s closest parallel
Take Poland, for example. It landorinshallowwaters,is may be neither Churchill nor
has enjoyed economic growth, certainlylessofaproblemthan Neville Chamberlain but
low unemployment and rising Citizenship test thevastamountaccumulating Galba, the Roman emperor
living standards, and seen the Along with most other media, inourglobaloceans who succeeded Nero in 68ad
populist Law and Justice Party The Economistreminded its (Schumpeter,July27th).Some but lasted only a few months.
romp home at elections. Voter readers that three of the four plasticsaredenserthanwater The pithy and scathing assess-
turnout hovers around 50%. congresswomen who were anddonotfloat.Thelighter ment of Tacitus was “omnium
Why don’t half these Poles go subjected to Donald Trump’s plasticscanincorporateheavi- consensu capax imperii, nisi
to the polls? Do they stay away rants were born in America and erparticlesintheirpolymer imperasset”. Rough transla-
because they are happy, or are the fourth is a naturalised resinstoensuretheydon’t tion: had he never become
they unsatisfied? Some might citizen (Lexington, July 20th). floateither.Plasticbottles, emperor everyone would have
believe that their single vote It was commendable that you whichotherwisefloatlike agreed that he had the capacity
does not matter. Some might described his language as boatsonthewatersurface,can to reign.
think that none of the parties “racist” rather than “racially beshapedtofloodeasilyand martin eaton
represents their views. What- charged”. However, one point thussinkrapidly. Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
ever the reason, there is a that is always overlooked is Itseemsthepackaging
growing realisation that if only that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez companiesandtheirheedless
some of those who stay away is not “of recent migrant stock”. customersareavoidingasim- The original rocket man
could be persuaded to vote, the Puerto Ricans have been citi- pleandinexpensivefixtothe You mentioned China’s plan to
rise of right-wing populists zens of the United States for worstpartoftheplasticpollu- land someone on the Moon by
could be forestalled. many decades. Her mother did tionproblem.Plasticsand 2035 (“The next 50 years in
piotr zientara not emigrate to New York from plasticbottlesshouldallbe space”, July 20th). This may be
Associate professor of Puerto Rico any more than I madetosinktotheoceanfloor. a repeat visit by China. Accord-
economics emigrated to New York from ionyadigaroglu ing to legend one Wan Hu
University of Gdansk Iowa. We simply moved. Partner became the world’s first astro-
It is unfortunate that Amer- TechnologyImpactFund naut more than 4,000 years
Thomas Jefferson did not think icans need to be reminded that NewYork ago by tying 47 fireworks to his
of “the pursuit of happiness” in Puerto Rico is a United States’ chair. The shear impact of his
terms of our inward-looking territory and that Puerto landing on the Moon caused
contemporary scale of satisfac- Ricans are American citizens. No comparison the formation of a large crater,
tion. It is an elusive turn of joseph english You compared Boris Johnson which is named after him.
phrase, but one closer to the New York to Winston Churchill, because ted paul
classical philosophical notion both leaders “inherited” a Weymouth, Dorset
of happiness as part of the One of the charges laid at the serious crisis (“Here we go”,
individual’s civic existence. door of liberals is hypocrisy, July 27th). I disagree. Mr
Through that lens, the pursuit, the odious practice of preach- Johnson did not inherit, but Lettersarewelcomeandshouldbe
that is, the attainment or prac- ing values and promoting actively helped create this addressedtotheEditorat
TheEconomist,TheAdelphiBuilding,
tice, of happiness reflects the solutions without accepting Brexit crisis. He deserves no
1-11JohnAdamStreet,LondonWC2N6HT
virtuous life of the citizen any of the consequences. For comparison to Churchill. Email:[email protected]
within the body politic. This is example, liberals (broadly jochem borren Morelettersareavailableat:
Economist.com/letters
the inverse of happiness as a speaking) are keen to allow Eindhoven, Netherlands