The Economics of Secession

267 Pages·1993·27.127 MB·English

by  Milica Zarkovic Bookman (auth.)

THE ECONOMICS
OF SECESSION
THE ECONOMICS
OF SECESSION
Milica Zarkovic Bookman
M
MACMILLAN
© Milica Zarovic Bookman 1993
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1993 978-0-333-59447-6
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Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this
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First published in the United Kingdom in 1993 by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London.
Companies and representatives
throughout the world.
ISBN 978-1-349-13213-3 ISBN 978-1-349-13211-9 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-1-349-13211-9
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library.
To Richard
CONTENTS
List of Tables . . . . viii
Acknowledgments. . ix
1. Introductory Concepts and Problems . . . . 1
2. Economic Variables and Phases of the Secessionist Process . 35
3. The Economics of Secession: Empirical Evidence (Part I) . . 51
4. The Economics of Secession: Empirical Evidence (Part II) 65
5. The Economic Basis of Secessionist Aspirations . . . . . . . . . 93
6. The Resolution of Economic Issues
During the Period of Redefinition . . . . 117
7. Post-Secession Economic Viability ... . 145
8. Secession and Self-determination in the Late 20th Century .. 161
Notes . . . . 179
References . . 249
Index. . . . . 257
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 . 1: Characteristics of Secessionist Regions . . . . . . . . . 26
Table 1 .2: Characteristics of Secessionist Regions, Part II . . 31
Table 2.1: Effect of Economic Variables
in the Phases of Secession . . . . . 42
Table 3.1: Indicators of Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . 52
Table 4.1: Indicators of Trade Dependency
and Interregional Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I
would like to thank various members of St. Joseph's University for
supporting the research and the writing of this manuscript. Vincent McCar
thy and George Prendergast enabled my leave of absence during 1991-92
and helped secure two St. Joseph's University Summer Research Grants for
study in Moscow (1991) and in Rome (1990). I would also like to thank
Henri Barkey for many hours of discussion on the topic of secession. In
addition, Tom Marzik, Fred Pryor, and Zora Pryor read and provided
comments on earlier drafts of some chapters. I would like to extend special
thanks to Irina Kutina, who was tireless as my Moscow interpreter, escort,
and ultimately my friend. Finally, I would like to thank Richard for helping
clarify ideas, for editing the manuscript, and most importantly, for providing
consistent and invaluable support during the difficult periods of 1991.
1
-
Introductory Concepts and Problems
"Proposal That Quebec Secede From Canada"
"A proposal that the province of Quebec secede from the Confederation of Ca
nadian Provinces was expressed in a motion introduced into the Provincial
Legislative Assembly today."
"Ukraine in Alliance With the Cossacks"
"The Terek and Kuban Cossacks are reported to be experiencing trouble in
their own territories, the hill tribes of the Northern Caucuses having risen."
"Slav Deputy Details Austrian Atrocities"
"Compelled to dig their own graves, drowned, burned alive, hmged or shot
down with machine guns, the Serbians of Hercegovina, Bosnia, !stria md Dal
matia were victims of Austro-Hungarian atrocities surpassing the humm im
agination."
-The New York Times, December 22, 1917, p. 3.
The above statements are the first sentences of articles on a single page of
the New York Times in 1917. They show a stunning resemblance to events
in 1992. Despite the passing of decades, despite political and economic
modernization, and despite a changing international environment, intereth
nic and interregional disputes persist in an almost unchanged form. In the
period since World War I, there has been a relative lull in demands by ethnic
and regional groups to alter borders, although some long-term efforts per
sisted both in Western Europe and some in the Third World countries. Some,
especially in Africa and Asia, gained momentum in the aftermath of World
War ll. Then, as though these interethnic and interregional conflicts follow
some kind of cyclical pattern, the last few years have witnessed a resurgence
2 The Economics of Secession
in secessionist movements.1 No longer restrained by a cold war polarization
and encouraged by the winds of rapid change, sub national groups are seeking
to free themselves from central authorities. Unlike any other period in recent
history, this unfolding decade may result in some of the most dramatic
attempts at redrawing national boundaries as secessionist fever spreads.
While in the past successful secessionist efforts were few (notably Norway,
Ireland, and more recently, Bangladesh), today's success of Lithuania,
Slovenia, and Eritrea fuels the fires in numerous regions that struggle with
their unions. Indeed, the sheer number of successful secessionist movements
in the past year puts this historical period in bold contrast to any other in
modern history.
Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union come quickly to mind as examples
of regions experiencing secessionist drives.2 A facile explanation for these
developments might be the loosening of central control associated with the
collapse of Soviet-style communism. Yet, Eastern Europe and the Soviet
Union are not alone in experiencing numerous drives for regional autonomy.
The early manifestations of the unraveling of national unions can be encoun
tered at various levels of development and under diverse economic and
political systems: India, Papua New Guinea, Canada, and the Sudan, among
others, are also contending with significant secessionist drives. Secessionist
movements among ethnic minorities within secessionist regions are com
mon, such as those of Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia, Tatars in Russia, Russians
within Moldova. In this general atmosphere of boundary anarchy and re
gional self-assertion, territorial and independence issues have emerged: even
in Taiwan, where calls for independence were punishable with a prison
sentence, the parliament is currently debating whether to declare indepen
dence from China; Germany is demanding that Russia give republic status
to ethnic Germans; Romanians have claimed land from an independent
Ukraine;3 and San Marino demands U.N. membership.
The objective of this study is to identify the economic forces associated
with secessionist movements. Although the majority of these movements are
largely influenced and fueled by ethnic and religious issues, these rarely exist
to the exclusion of economic factors. The scholarly literature on secession,
as well as the popular press, has largely overlooked the economic concomi
tants of nationalism, despite clear cases of its importance in determining the
nature of regional demands (such as those in Lombardy, Punjab, the Russian
Republic) and the use of economic policy as a tool for the appeasement of
subnational regions with active nationalistic movements (Bougainville, Slo
vakia, and Quebec). Economic issues are relevant in the study of secession
in explaining events in various phases of the secession movements. First,