The Chinese Economic Renaissance Apocalypse or Cornucopia? Dilip K. Das PPL-UK_CER-Das_FM.qxd 5/29/2008 1:26 PM Page i The Chinese Economic Renaissance PPL-UK_CER-Das_FM.qxd 5/29/2008 1:26 PM Page ii Also by Dilip K. Das MIGRATION OF FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES INTERNATIONAL TRADE POLICY: A Developing-Country Perspective KOREAN ECONOMIC DYNAMISM IMPORT CANALISATION THE YEN APPRECIATION AND THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY FINANCING GROWTH:The External Contribution THE ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMY THE FUTURE OF ASIAN EXPORTS THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM AT CROSSROADS: A Post-Seattle Perspective THE ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF GLOBALIZATION FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION AND THE EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES REGIONALISM IN GLOBAL TRADE ASIAN ECONOMY AND FINANCE:A Post-Crisis Perspective THE DOHA ROUND OF MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS: Arduous Issues and Strategic Responses CHINA AND INDIA: A Tale of Two Economies THE EVOLVING GLOBAL TRADE ARCHITECTURE Edited Books AN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE READER (editor) ASIAN EXPORTS (editor) EMERGING GROWTH POLE:The Asia-Pacific Economics (editor) INTERNATIONAL FINANCE: Contemporary Issues (editor) PPL-UK_CER-Das_FM.qxd 5/29/2008 1:26 PM Page iii The Chinese Economic Renaissance Apocalypse or Cornucopia? Dilip K. Das PPL-UK_CER-Das_FM.qxd 5/29/2008 1:26 PM Page iv © Dilip K.Das 2008 All rights reserved.No reproduction,copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced,copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright,Designs and Patents Act 1988,or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency,90 Tottenham Court Road,London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright,Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2008 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills,Basingstoke,Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue,New York,N.Y.10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St.Martin’s Press,LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States,United Kingdom and other countries.Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN-13:978-0-230-21840-6 hardback ISBN-10:0-230-21840-7 hardback This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources.Logging,pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 Printed and bound in Great Britain by CPI Antony Rowe,Chippenham and Eastbourne PPL-UK_CER-Das_FM.qxd 5/29/2008 1:26 PM Page v To Vasanti, for being the wind under my wings. This page intentionally left blank PPL-UK_CER-Das_FM.qxd 5/29/2008 1:26 PM Page vii See simplicity in the complicated. Achieve greatness through little things. In the universe difficult things are done by attempting the easy first. In the universe great acts are made up of small deeds. The sage does not attempt anything very big, and by so doing achieves greatness. —Wisdom of Tao Te King This page intentionally left blank PPL-UK_CER-Das_FM.qxd 5/29/2008 1:26 PM Page ix Contents List of Tables xiii Preface xiv Acknowledgments xx About the Author xxi 1 A Chinese Renaissance: Three Decades of Inexorable Economic Progress 1 1.1 Making an economic U-turn 1 1.1.1 A unique development model 5 1.1.2 Why the reform and liberalization program succeeded 7 1.1.3 Two vital variables: Saving and investment 11 1.1.4 Demographic bonus 14 1.1.5 Total factor productivity (TFP) growth 16 1.1.6 Rapid growth and relentless economic ascent 20 1.1.7 Downside of relentless economic ascent 25 1.2 Comparison with the other Asian high achievers 27 1.2.1 Larger potential global impact of China 29 1.2.2 China’s global acceptance 32 1.3 Evolution of a large trading economy 33 1.3.1 WTO accession: Marathon negotiations 37 1.3.2 Emergence of an export juggernaut 39 1.3.3 Outer-orientation and economic transformation 43 1.4 A magnet for FDI 46 1.4.1 The quantitative dimension and geographical concentration of FDI 48 1.4.2 Did China eat ASEAN’s lunch? 51 1.4.3 Did FDI stimulate growth? 51 1.4.4 Dawn of a dual economy 53 1.5 Multinational corporations (MNCs) in China 54 1.5.1 Stumbling blocks faced by the multinationals 54 1.5.2 Multinationals and Chinese trade 55 ix
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