Tackling Long-Term Global Energy Problems: The Contribution of Social Science PDF
Preview Tackling Long-Term Global Energy Problems: The Contribution of Social Science
Tackling Long-Term Global Energy Problems ENVIRONMENT & POLICY VOLUME 52 Forfurthervolumes: http://www.springer.com/series/5921 Tackling Long-Term Global Energy Problems The Contribution of Social Science Editedby Daniel Spreng ETHZurich,Switzerland Thomas Flüeler ETHZurich,Switzerland David L. Goldblatt ETHZurich,Switzerland and Jürg Minsch minschsustainability affairs,Zurich,Switzerland 123 Editors Prof.Dr.DanielSpreng Dr.ThomasFlüeler EnergyScienceCenter(ESC) InstituteforEnvironmentalDecisions ETHZurich (IED) Zürichbergstrasse18 ETHZurich 8032Zurich Universitätsstrasse22 Switzerland 8092Zurich [email protected] Switzerland thomas.fl[email protected] Dr.DavidL.Goldblatt Dr.JürgMinsch DepartmentofManagement,Technology, minschsustainabilityaffairs andEconomics(D-MTEC) Wehntalerstrasse3 CentreforEnergyPolicyand 8057Zurich Economics(CEPE) Switzerland ETHZurich [email protected] Zürichbergstrasse18 8032Zurich Switzerland [email protected] ISSN1383-5130 ISBN978-94-007-2332-0 e-ISBN978-94-007-2333-7 DOI10.1007/978-94-007-2333-7 SpringerDordrechtHeidelbergLondonNewYork LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2011943627 ©SpringerScience+BusinessMediaB.V.2012 Nopartofthisworkmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorby anymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,microfilming,recordingorotherwise,withoutwritten permissionfromthePublisher,withtheexceptionofanymaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurpose ofbeingenteredandexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Foreword Thisbookmakesthecaseforplacingthesocialsciences onanequalfootingwithengineeringandnaturalsciences withinenergyresearch. (Chapter1,thisvolume) ‘Yet another book on energy!’ So may a potential reader say to himself, bearing inmindthesurgeofarticlesandbooks,mostofthemintelligentandconvincingly written,whichfordecadeshavepresenteddoomsdayscenariosonenergy,resources, environmentandclimate.Butthegeneralpublicandmostpoliticiansseemtotake littlenotice.Wehavebecomeusedtothecoexistenceofparallelworlds,onewhere scientists and engineers strive to develop accurate analyses based on sophisticated mathematical models, and the other of the majority of citizens and consumers led by short-sighted politicians, though the latter like to pretend they are carrying out thewishesoftheformer. Why is that so? This book attempts to find answers from two different angles. The first refers to the research system itself, i.e., to the question of how scientific knowledgeistraditionallyproducedandwhythissystemispartiallyblindandthus bothered by black spots where problems resist proper analysis and solution. The centralmessageofthisbookisthatinenergyresearchthesocialsciencesbelongtoa blackarea.Socialstudiesonenergypersearenotnecessarilybetterthanthestudies of engineers. What is missing is an interdisciplinary approach in which scientists of different disciplines engage in a true mutual cooperation that goes beyond the usual side-by-side pseudo-multidisciplinarity and requires that each discipline try to understand the approach and arguments of the others. The contributing authors present various case studies that demonstrate the failure of solutions in which just thisproperengagementismissing. Inthecitationthatstartedthisforewordthereaderwillnoticehoweveraremark- ableasymmetrybetweennaturalsciencesandengineeringononesideandthesocial sciencesontheother.Talkingaboutthelackoftruecooperationbetweendifferent hemispheres of the scientific world is one thing, but pointing out that one hemi- sphere is not (yet) on equal footing with the other may suggest the arrogance of natural sciences and engineering vis-à-vis the social sciences. Perhaps arrogance reallydoesplayapart,asthephysicistinmeistemptedtoadmit,butself-criticism seemstobeinvolvedaswell.Indeed,theasymmetryinthetrackrecordsofproblem v vi Foreword solvingbetweenthetwoareasissalient.Inasuperficialsenseengineersseemtobe muchmorereliableintheiraccomplishmentsthaneconomists,sociologists,political scientistsorpsychologists.Ifeconomistswereabletogiveadvicetonationalgov- ernments with the same certitude as engineers calculate and design bridges, we would live in paradise. It is true that bridges, buildings and machines sometimes failaswell,butthesefailurescanusuallybetracedbacktosomeviolationofgood engineeringpractice.Unfortunately,itisnotsosimpleforthesocialsciences.1 Are the social sciences just lagging behind the natural sciences? Yes and no. Yes, because social scientists do not dispose of an undisputed set of laws and rules like physicists and engineers, the laws of classical mechanics, the Maxwell Equations, etc. No, because they never will, not because they are lazy and less giftedthanphysicistsandengineers,butbecausetheydealwithpeopleratherthan with concrete, brick, stones and steel pipes, i.e., with well-defined materials and precisely designed pieces of machinery like integrated circuits that (almost) com- pletely lack individual properties. Since the industrial revolution we have become so used to the reliability of objects designed by engineers that we have forgotten that this has come at a considerable cost, i.e., the cost of separating the world of engineers from the world of humans composed of individuals, families clans and states, which interact and which lack the unique properties of the lifeless world. Alittleoveradecadeago,whenIwasinchargeofaprojectoftheSwissFederal InstitutesofTechnologycalledthe2000Watt-Society,togetherwithCarolineRoggo Voegelin I dubbed the project the moon flight of the 21st century.2 We argued that while the grand challenges of the 20th century were mainly of the type of the moon mission, that is, predominantly a challenge for the natural sciences and engineering – like so many other great achievements of that century – the great challenges of the 21st century will no longer allow us the luxury to simply ignore themuchmorecomplexissuesofthesocialsciences.Theestablishmentofasustain- ableenergysystem,forwhichthe2000Watt-Societystands,isnotataskforenergy engineersalone(infact,mostofthenecessarytechnicaltoolsalreadyexist)butpri- marilyforsocialscientistswhohavetodevelopnewsocietalandeconomicsystems in which people can enjoy the achievements of modern society such as freedom, socialjusticeandsecurityatasignificantlylowerlevelofconsumptionofmaterial andenergyresources.Weexpressedtheviewthatthenewtypeofcomplexityholds 1Threeepochalevents,eitherrecentorstillunfoldingasthisbookgoestoprint,demonstratethe fragilityof‘engineered’solutions–intermsofclassicalengineering,riskmanagement,aswell asgeopoliticalstrategy–toproblemsofenergysupply,access,supplysecurityandenvironmental protection:the2010DeepwaterHorizondrillingrigexplosionandoilspillintheGulfofMexico, the2011post-earthquakeJapanesenuclearplantcatastropheandpopularrevolutionsandrebellions againstdictatorialregimesacrosstheArabworldin2011.Allthreechallengeconventionalthinking andplanningforenergyscientistsinboththehardandsoftsciences. 2ETHBulletinNr.276(2000),pp.24–27. Foreword vii not only for the energy problem but for all other great challenges of the future – includingpoverty,politicalstabilityandaccesstoessentialresourcessuchaswater and land – where any scientific discipline alone would be hopelessly lost. This, it seemstome,isexactlythemessageofthisbook. Thereisyetanotheranglefromwhichtheauthorsarelookingattheglobalenergy problem,themetaphoroftheinvisible.Thisbookcouldnotstartwithamoreapttale than that of Gyges and the ring of invisibility from Plato’s dialogue The Republic, whichtellsaboutthepoweroftheinvisibleanditsuseandmisuse.InPlato’stale, Gygesusestheringofinvisibilitytooverthrowthekingandusurppower.Thelesson ofthestoryisthatinvisibilityproducessecretpowerandthusthreatensthefreedom of those who are not aware of this power. In essence, the idea and value of scien- tific research is to make the invisible visible and thus to make it part of generally availableknowledge.Academicresearchanddemocracyarecorrelative:thisisthe lessontodrawfromPlato’sstory. Formostpeopleasignificantportionoftheenergyproblemhasremainedinvisi- blesofar,eitherbecauseitishiddeninthefutureorbecauseitonlymanifestsitself inotherpartsoftheworldoramongothersocietalgroups.Onlyafewseemtoknow oftheinvisible,ofthehiddenpartoftheswimmingiceberg,andamongthosewho knowarecleverpoliticiansandbusinesspeoplewhousetheinvisibilityoftheprob- lemtotheirownadvantage.Again,thesocialsciencesplayacrucialroleinmaking theinvisiblevisible,sincetheiroccupationwithhumannatureandwiththehistory of man provides them with a kind of X-ray that can bring out structure and shape thatwouldotherwiseremaininvisible. It is to be hoped that the message of this book will be heard by all of us, nat- ural scientists and engineers, social scientists, politicians and, most importantly, responsiblecitizens. MissiontotheMoon Four years after the Sputnik shock of 1957, the cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin became the first human being to travel into space on April 12, 1961, greatly embarrassingtheUnitedStates.InanaddresstoajointsessionofCongresson May25,1961intendedtodeliveraspecialmessageonurgentnationalneeds, President Kennedy asked for an additional $7 to 9 billion over the next five yearsforthespaceprogramme,proclaimingthat‘thisnationshouldcommit itselftoachievingthegoal,beforethedecadeisout,oflandingamanonthe moon and returning himsafely tothe earth’. President Kennedy did not jus- tifytheneededexpenditureonthebasisofscienceandexploration.‘Ibelieve wepossessalltheresourcesandtalentsnecessary.Butthefactsofthematter arethatwehavenevermadethenationaldecisionsormarshalledthenational resources required for such leadership. We have never specified long-range viii Foreword goalsonanurgenttimeschedule,ormanagedourresourcesandourtimeso astoinsuretheirfulfillment.’ OnJuly20,1969theApollo11missionsawtherealisationofthisgoal.3 Zurich,November2011 DieterM.Imboden PresidentoftheResearchCouncilofthe SwissNationalScienceFoundation,Berne 3Sources: http://history.nasa.gov/moondec.html, http://www.jfklibrary.org (>JFK>Historic Speeches>AddresstoJointSessionofCongress25May,1961).WeblinksaccessedNovember 16,2011. Contents PartI 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 DavidL.Goldblatt,JürgMinsch,ThomasFlüeler,andDanielSpreng 2 Energy-RelatedChallenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 ThomasFlüeler,DavidL.Goldblatt,JürgMinsch,andDanielSpreng 3 TheIndispensableRoleofSocialScienceinEnergyResearch . . . 23 JürgMinsch,DavidL.Goldblatt,ThomasFlüeler,andDanielSpreng PartII InvitedContributions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 DavidL.Goldblatt,ThomasFlüeler,JürgMinsch,andDanielSpreng 4 What About Social Science and Interdisciplinarity? A10-YearContentAnalysisofEnergyPolicy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 BenjaminK.Sovacool,SaleenaSaleem, AnthonyLouisD’Agostino,CatherineRegaladoRamos, KirstenTrott,andYanchunOng 5 TowardsanIntegrativeFrameworkforEnergyTransitions ofHouseholdsinDevelopingCountries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 ShonaliPachauriandDanielSpreng 6 A Socio-Cultural Analysis of Changing Household ElectricityConsumptioninIndia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 HaroldWilhite 7 TheChangingContextforEffortstoAvoidthe‘CurseofOil’ . . . 115 JillShankleman 8 ContributionsofEconomicsandEthicstoanAssessment ofEmissionsTrading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 AdrianMuller ix
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