Systems Analysis Approach for Complex Global Challenges PDF
Preview Systems Analysis Approach for Complex Global Challenges
Priscilla Mensah David Katerere Sepo Hachigonta Editors Andreas Roodt Systems Analysis Approach for Complex Global Challenges Systems Analysis Approach for Complex Global Challenges Priscilla Mensah David Katerere (cid:129) Sepo Hachigonta Andreas Roodt (cid:129) Editors Systems Analysis Approach for Complex Global Challenges 123 Editors Priscilla Mensah SepoHachigonta Human andInfrastructure Capacity Strategic Partnerships Development National Research Foundation National Research Foundation Pretoria Pretoria SouthAfrica SouthAfrica Andreas Roodt DavidKaterere Department ofChemistry Department ofPharmaceutical Sciences University of the FreeState TshwaneUniversity ofTechnology Bloemfontein Pretoria SouthAfrica SouthAfrica ISBN978-3-319-71485-1 ISBN978-3-319-71486-8 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71486-8 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2017960912 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingAG,partofSpringerNature2018,correctedpublication2018 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinor for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerInternationalPublishingAG partofSpringerNature Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Preface There is no doubt that the challenges facing humanity and our planet are complex and interconnected. Tackling them requires holistic approaches and mechanisms thattranscendthetraditionalbarriersbetweendisciplinesandsectorsandtakesinto accounttheinteractionswithinacomplexsystem.Systemsanalysisinthiscontext, isaproblem-solvingprocessthatinvolvesmultiplesectors,countriesandexpertsto develop integrated solutions for multidimensional challenges such as poverty, cli- mate change, energy and rapid population growth in developing countries. For example, climate change driven by rising levels of anthropogenic emissions of greenhousegaseshasaprogressivelyincreasingimpactontheenvironment.Using systemsanalysistointegrate thesefacetshasprovidednewinsightsfordeveloping nexussolutions,aswellasevidence-basedpolicyformulation,implementationand monitoring.Furthermore,systemsanalysisandintegratedapproacheswillbekeyto supporting a sustainable policy implementation process for inter alia the African Union’s Agenda 2063, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, by enhancing policy cohesion. The use of applied systems analysis as a research approach in the context of emerging economies is not common. Recognising the role that systems analysis plays in addressing complex social and policy challenges, South Africa identified the strengthening of capacity in systems analysis as a strategic area for increased investment. South Africa’s membership as a National Member Organisation (NMO)totheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)in2007 wasamovetowardscultivatinghighlevelhumanresourcecapacityandpromoting this methodological approach in the country and region. While it isreassuring that emergingeconomiessuchasBRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,ChinaandSouthAfrica) aremembercountriesofIIASA,onlySouthAfricaandEgyptrepresenttheAfrican continent. This further underscores the need for an expanded training programme targetedatfuturesystemsanalystsontheAfricancontinent.Inspiredbythesuccess of IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Programme (YSSP), the Southern African Young Scientists Summer Programme (SA-YSSP) was launched in November 2012. For a period of 3 years, 80 young scientists from 30 countries, including 35 from South Africa, worked under the supervision of senior scientists from IIASA v vi Preface and South Africa to advance their research in areas related to the environment, energy, risk, population, food, water, and climate change, linked to policy and socio-economic studies. This peer-reviewed book contains a collection of review articles by those promising young scientists and their academic mentors that showcase the unique ability of systems science to provide practical solutions to almost overwhelmingly complex societal challenges and demonstrates how systems approaches can be incorporated into the science-policy-society interface. As editors, we are confident that this book will not only be an important resource for future scholars, but will also serve as an introductory reference text to researchers and policy makers. Pretoria and Bloemfontein, South Africa Priscilla Mensah David Katerere Sepo Hachigonta Andreas Roodt Acknowledgement Wethankandacknowledgeall authorsfortheirkeycontributions tothisbookand expert reviewers for their critical feedback on the initial drafts of the chapters. Without their unwavering support, the book would not have been possible. Our special thanks to Dr. Gansen Pillay, the Deputy CEO for Research and Innovation Support and Advancement at the National Research Foundation (NRF), South Africa and Prof. Pavel Kabat, the Former Director General and Chief Executive OfficeroftheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA),Austria; Chief Scientist/Director of Research World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, who have been instrumental in initiating joint programmes between SouthAfricaandIIASA.Inaddition,wewouldliketoexpressourgratitudetothe University of the Free State for hosting the Southern African Young Scientists SummerProgramme(SA-YSSP).Furthermore,wewishtothankDr.AldoStroebel (NRF)andDr.UlfDieckmann(IIASA)fortheirexceptionalleadershipandsupport fortheSA-YSSP.OurspecialthankstoSouthAfrica’sDepartmentofScienceand Technology (DST) for the continuous investment and support in growing the systems approaches knowledge base in Africa. Finally, we thank the following reviewers who provided us with vital feedback on the book chapters: Rabidyuti Biswas (School of Planning and Architecture, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India), Aiyetan Olatunji (Department of Construction Management and Quantity Surveying, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa), Everisto Benyera (Department of Political Science, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa), Tariro Kamuti (Centre for Africa Studies, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa), Olusola Ogunnubi (Department of Political Science and Public Administration, University of Zululand, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa), Gideon Wolfaardt (Stellenbosch University Water Institute, Stellenbosch University, South Africa), Kevin Winter (Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town), Kevin vii viii Acknowledgement Harding (Industrial and Mining Water Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand,Johannesburg,SouthAfrica),ClaudiousChikozho (Africa Institute of South Africa Programme, Human Sciences Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa), Katye Altieri (Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, South Africa),CaradeeWright(MedicalResearchCouncil,Pretoria,SouthAfrica),Fadiel Ahjum (Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, South Africa), Ben Sebitosi (Mechanical and Mechatronic Engineering Department, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa), Olivier Crespo (Environmental and Geographical Science Department, University of Cape Town, South Africa), Voster Muchenje (FacultyofScienceandAgriculture,UniversityofFortHare,Alice,SouthAfrica), Martin de Wit (School of Public Leadership, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa), Ali Kharrazi (Global Education for Innovation and Leadership Program, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo, Japan), Dan Baird (Department of Botany and Zoology, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa), Kenny Uren (School of Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering, North-West University Potchefstroom, South Africa), Colleen Seymour (South African National Biodiversity Institute, Pretoria, South Africa), Mirowslaw Lachowicz (Institute of Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, University of Warsaw, Poland), Matthias Langer (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom), Corine de Wet (University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa), Jan Heystek (Department of EducationalPolicy,EducationalManagement,EducationalLeadership,NorthWest University, Potchefstroom, South Africa), David Katerere (Department of Pharmaceutical Science, Tshwane University of Technology, Tshwane, South Africa), Alfred Maroyi (Department of Botany, University of Fort Hare, Alice, SouthAfrica),TakwanisaMachemedze(DataFirstDepartment,UniversityofCape Town, South Africa), Candice Morkel (School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa), David Mphuthi (Department of Health Studies, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa), Victor Naidu (Department of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation, University of Fort Hare, Alice, South Africa), Andreas Roodt (Department of Chemistry, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa), Roy Tapera (Department of Environmental Health, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana), Peter Tshisikhawe (Department of Botany, University of Venda, Thohoyandou, South Africa). Contents Introduction by Dorsamy (Gansen) Pillay and Pavel Kabat . ..... .... xix Part I Risk and Governance 1 Introduction to Part I: The Role of System Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Systems Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Mapula Tshangela 2 Cities as Forces for Good in the Environment: A Systems Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 M.BruceBeck,DillipK.Das,MichaelThompson,InnocentChirisa, StephenEromobor,SergeKubanza,TejasRewalandEverardtBurger 3 Risk, Resilience and Adaptation to Global Change. . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Shakespear Mudombi 4 Extract of Africa: Towards the Equitable and Ecologically Sound Governance of Mining and Drilling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Ikechukwu Umejesi, Michael Thompson, Maria Marcello and Emmanuel Vellemu Part II Water-Energy-Food Nexus 5 Introduction to Part II: Integrative Frameworks and Participatory Governance for Effective Water-Energy-Food Systems Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Shonali Pachauri 6 Water Futures and Solutions: Options to Enhance Water Security in Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Thokozani Kanyerere, Sylvia Tramberend, Audrey D. Levine, Portia Mokoena, Paul Mensah, Wisemen Chingombe, Jacqueline Goldin, Sumbul Fatima and Mayank Prakash ix x Contents 7 Energy Policy, Air Quality, and Climate Mitigation in South Africa: The Case for Integrated Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Carmen Klausbruckner, Lucas R. F. Henneman, Peter Rafaj and Harold J. Annegarn 8 Transformation of the South African Energy System: Towards Participatory Governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 Vain D. B. Jarbandhan, Nadejda Komendantova, Romao Xavier and Elvis Nkoana 9 Precision Agriculture and Food Security in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Bongani Ncube, Walter Mupangwa and Adam French Part III Ecosystems 10 Introduction to Part III: Functions and Services of Ecosystems . . . 181 Mao Amis 11 Resilience Measures in Ecosystems and Socioeconomic Networks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 Ursula M. Scharler, Brian D. Fath, Arnab Banerjee, Delin Fang, Le Feng, Joyita Mukherjee and Linlin Xia 12 Complexity and Stability of Adaptive Ecological Networks: A Survey of the Theory in Community Ecology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 Pietro Landi, Henintsoa O. Minoarivelo, Åke Brännström, Cang Hui and Ulf Dieckmann 13 Aggregation Methods in Analysis of Complex Multiple Scale Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 Jacek Banasiak, Aleksandra Falkiewicz and Milaine S. S. Tchamga Part IV Population, Health and Aging 14 Introduction to Part IV: People-Based Systems Analysis of Health, Education and Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 Wolfgang Lutz 15 Integrating Indigenous Knowledge into Maternal and Child Health Programs in Southern Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 Cheryl V. Nikodem and Blessing Silaigwana 16 Evaluating Outcomes of the Antiretroviral Intervention in South Africa: A Systems Thinking Research Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 Johanna Ledwaba and Kambidima Wotela
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