Strategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry PDF
Preview Strategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry
Strategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry Dilek Cetindamar Tugrul Daim • Berna Beyhan Nuri Basoglu • Editors Strategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry 123 Editors DilekCetindamar Berna Beyhan School ofManagement Science,Technology andPolicy Center Sabanci University METU Istanbul Ankara Turkey Turkey TugrulDaim Nuri Basoglu Engineering andTechnology Management Management Information Systems Portland StateUniversity Bog˘aziçi University Portland Istanbul USA Turkey ISBN 978-1-4471-4886-9 ISBN 978-1-4471-4887-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-4887-6 SpringerLondonHeidelbergNewYorkDordrecht LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013931272 (cid:2)Springer-VerlagLondon2013 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionor informationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. 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Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience?BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Contents 1 Strategic Planning Decisions: An Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Tugrul Daim, Dilek Cetindamar, Berna Beyhan and Nuri Basoglu 2 No Escape from the Dominant Theories: The Analysis of Intellectual Pillars of Technology Management in Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Berna Beyhan and Dilek Cetindamar 3 Ontology- and Function-Based Technology Model for Decision Making in New Product Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Stefanie Bunzel, Joachim Warschat, Dieter Spath and Antonino Ardilio 4 Strategic Foresight Methodology to Identifying Business Opportunities and Technology Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 David Güemes-Castorena and Juan L. Amezcua-Martínez 5 Strategic Planning for Research-Intensive Institutions: An Approach Towards Identifying the Most Attractive Path for Technology Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Antonino Ardilio, Joachim Warschat and Dieter Spath 6 Platform Emergence in Double Unknown (Technology, Markets): Common Unknown Strategy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Olga Kokshagina, Pascal Le Masson, Benoit Weil and Patrick Cogez 7 Imovator’s Dilemma: How to Decide When to be Offensive and When to be Defensive?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Türkay Dereli and Koray Altun v vi Contents 8 Technology Acquisition by Collaboration: A Conceptual Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Victor G. Ortiz-Gallardo, David Probert and Robert Phaal 9 Decision Making for New Technology: A Multi-Actor, Multi-Objective Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Scott W. Cunningham and Telli E. van der Lei 10 Evaluating and Communicating the Value of Technology: Concept and Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 Clare Farrukh, Rob Phaal, Letizia Mortara and David Probert 11 The Role of Policy Intervention for Technology Management: The Case of Swedish Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Technology . . . . . . 203 Thomas Magnusson and Annika Rickne 12 Utilizing Risk Analysis and Scenario Planning for Technology Roadmapping. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 Yuya Kajikawa, Yasunori Kikuchi, Yasuhiro Fukushima and Michihisa Koyama 13 Application of Six Sigma Methodology and Use of Data in Decision Making in the Fixed Line Planning Process. . . . . . . . 245 Gordan Krcˇelic´, Siniša Štifanic´ and Milan Meden Chapter 1 Strategic Planning Decisions: An Overview Tugrul Daim, Dilek Cetindamar, Berna Beyhan and Nuri Basoglu Who would have thought 10 years ago that Apple would be a phone company or evenamusiccompany?Aswearewitnessinganothertechnologicaldiscontinuity, once again we realize the importance of making informed decisions in the high- tech industry. This book provides a snapshot of the tools being developed to address the uncertainty induced by technological discontinuities. This chapter precisely explores specific decisions with different applications documented in the literature. We will review three major topics that transform strategic planning into actionable decisions in technology-driven organizations: technology planning, technology evaluation, and technology diffusion (Fig. 1.1). 1.1 Technology Planning Everything starts with a plan. Phaal et al. [1] provide a very simple but effective tool for technology planning: technology roadmaps. The use of roadmaps, espe- cially technology roadmaps, is widely used in the industry and in government T.Daim(&) EngineeringandTechnologyManagement,PortlandStateUniversity, SWFourth,Portland97201,USA e-mail:[email protected] D.Cetindamar FacultyofManagement,SabanciUniversity,Tuzla,34956Istanbul,Turkey B.Beyhan InstituteforInnovationandEntrepreneurship,SchoolofBusiness,EconomicsandLaw, GothenburgUniversity,Gothenburg,Sweden N.Basoglu ManagementInformationSystems,BogaziciUniversity,HisarCampus,Bebek, 34342Istanbul,Turkey e-mail:[email protected] D.Cetindamaretal.(eds.),StrategicPlanningDecisionsintheHigh 1 TechIndustry,DOI:10.1007/978-1-4471-4887-6_1, (cid:2)Springer-VerlagLondon2013 2 T.Daimetal. Fig.1.1 Strategicplanning Strategic Plans decisionframeworkinthe high-techindustry o Technology o Planning Decision o Technology Criteria and Methodology o Evaluation o Technology o Diffusion Decision organizations. They are used for the basic technology planning function: linking organizational strategic goals to research and development investment decisions while also communicating these linkages visually [2]. The process starts with identificationoftheinternalandexternalforcesimpactingthegoalsandstrategies of the organization as well as documentation of its vision. Next, organization’s current capabilities in terms of products or services are documented. The process helps identify the gaps between the current capabilities and the vision of the organization at product/service, technology, and research and development levels by linking all of these levels. Rinne [3] expanded the concept to multiple dimensions to help with identifying those opportunities which may not be iden- tified as goals yet. Mapping internal and external activities provides an insight into forces at play for any given sector. Phaal et al. [4] introduced a framework for mapping. Technologyplanningusesseveralinputsincludingtheassessmentoftechnologies, which we will discuss in the following section. Thorn et al. [5] demonstrated a practical application of technology valuation. Martin and Daim [6] building upon Gerdsri’s[7]approachoftechnologydevelopmentenvelope,introducedvaluation of technologies for service-oriented sectors. Gerdsri et al. [8, 9] emphasized the importance of getting organized for the activity of technology planning including functionsrangingfromtechnologyroadmappingtoprioritization.Theyimplythat you should match the tools with an organizational structure including project 1 StrategicPlanningDecisions 3 Product/Service Area : ELECTRONICS TNeocrhthnwoelosgt yE nReoragdym Eaffpiciency SSlleeeepp MMooddee TTeecchhnnoollooggyy RRooaaddmmaapp Retain PrPoedrufocrtm/Saenrvciece Rpreesfperoennscivees to user needs and Minitneirmacatli ouns errequired cpInortonedfgiurgacuttri oasttnia oonnfds sblye espo fmtwoadree aapnpdl ihcaartdiowna wrei th iCnateplalibgielintyc eto GAP restore to full functionality Require sleep mode features that reduce PrPoedrufocrtm/Saenrvciece eiOmxppptieamrciitezsne wc seilteheopu tm doedger aednienrgg uyser 6bR5ae%sdeu rlcienelea otivveer atoll "eanlewragyys u osne" b y energy usage by 90% (ST-MT) GOAL Work with manufacturing community as in trade associations and interest groups Sleep-mode chip or User–sensing and user- Sleep mode more responsive to late Google APP to reset equivalent design standard aware controls night network admin. updated sleep mode Preset sleep mode to energy Technology Video games with sleep mode efficiency best practices are also losing score Software compatibility with stand-by modes R&D for Video games with sleep mode are also losing score Accessible and simple User sensing controls – 70 interface controls 76 underway @ TV mfgs, PrRog&rDam hncooolwtl aaebcvocerera sttshioiibsnl eR &foDr is Oinptetirmfaiczee user Ncoemtwpourtke rm naentawgoermksent for sStoafntwd-abrye mcoomdpesatibilitywith75 73 R&D for Sleep mode more Understand how users might Behavior economics for how responsive to late night use EGiPC(?) people use devices 82 network admin. updated 68 New gap not scored Performance Gap Current Technology Technology Gap(R&D need) Priority Score of R&D Gap Performance Goal Current R&D(R&D underway) R&D Gap (No known R&D) # (Max=100) Fig.1.2 AnextractfromtheUSNWenergyefficiencytechnologymap teams.Fenwicketal. [10]arguedthattechnologyroadmappingistheplatformthat integrates all planning activities ranging from marketing to engineering. They matched different planning tools to different components of the technology roadmapping process. Abe [11] also demonstrated a similar integrated approach. Lee and Park [12] presented how we can customize our approach. Petrick and Echols [13] also showed us how we can make better product development deci- sions with approaches like roadmapping. Technology planning is not required solely in the product or service organi- zationsbutinmanydiversesectors suchasenergyandgovernment.Accordingto Amer and Daim [14] roadmaps are widely used in renewable energy sector. Several studies have provided applications which can easily be duplicated in practice. These include applications in bio fuels [15], electricity (Fig. 1.2, [16, 17]), government policies [18], automotive [19], semiconductors [20], materials [21],nationalplanningandforesight[22–24],generalscienceandtechnology[25], and corporate foresight [26]. Manyemphasizetheimportanceofidentificationofdiscontinuitieswhichreally makesitchallengingtomanagetechnologies.References[27–29]providevarying methods to identify discontinuities. 4 T.Daimetal. 1.2 Technology Evaluation Technology planning sets a goal and a roadmap to reach that goal. However, further due diligence is required to detail the actions to be made around tech- nologies. That requires evaluation of technologies for multiple purposes. The strategic goals need to be translated into required technologies. Current capabili- tiesneedtobematchedagainsttheserequirementstoidentifythegaps.Candidate technologiesneedtobeidentifiedandevaluatedtoaddressthesegaps.Evaluations arenotbasedontechnicalcriteriaonly;social,economic,andotherorganizational perspectives are also evaluated with varying methods. Tran and Daim [30] pro- videdaclassificationofthesemethods.Theiranalysisshowedthatapplicationsin government and business differed from each other while methods used also changedovertime.Themainreasonisthatbusinessorganizationsareinterestedin maximizing their profits while government organizations have many goals including society and environment focused ones. Daim and Kocaoglu [31] dis- covered that businesses in electronics manufacturing evaluated technologies with the goal of either increase in sales or improvement of operational efficiency. Technology evaluation is not based on technical aspects only, as mentioned above. There are several non-technical perspectives that need to be taken during evaluation.Manyofthem,includingsocialorpoliticalperspectives,requireexpert judgment and quantification of those judgments. Methods addressing these per- spectives include analytical hierarchy process, analytical network process, and hierarchical decision models (Fig. 1.3). Iskin et al. [32] applied analytic net- working process to evaluate the impact of economic and other non technical aspectsonrenewableenergy.Daimetal.[33]integratedfuzzydelphiandanalytic hierarchyprocessestogethertoevaluatetechnologiesacrossmultipleperspectives. Such models have been applied in evaluation of offshore wind turbine designs Fig.1.3 Ahierarchicaldecisionmodelforevaluatingheatingfuel 1 StrategicPlanningDecisions 5 [34], renewable energy technologies in Pakistan [35]; energy resources in China [36], and renewable energy in the Pacific Northwest [37, 38]. Evaluationneedstobebalancedwithbuildingportfoliossinceevaluationrates alternatives across different criteria while portfolios balance these criteria. Examples of such applications include hydroelectric power and storage portfolio [39] and renewable energy portfolio [40]. While it is important to understand the current capabilities and impact of technologies,foreseeingtheirfutureisalsoessentialsincenaturallynoonewould liketoinvestinatechnologywhichwillbeobsoletesoon.Technologyforecasting is the general name given to methods which help explore the evolution of tech- nologies into the future. Methodologies range considerably in this area as well. Kim et al. [41] used regression analysis to forecast wireless technologies while Anderson et al. [42] used mathematical programming, specifically data envelop- mentanalysisforthesamepurpose.AsDaimetal. [43]emphasized,itisusefulto use multiple methods so that further insight could be attained as we are really looking into the future which is not an easy task at all. Exploring future requires intelligence on trends. Many indicators are used for this purpose; inventors [44], patents [45–48] and publications [49]. Growth curves, or ‘‘S’’ curves as they are commonly called, are also widely used for forecasting technologies [50, 51]. 1.3 Technology Diffusion One of the critical elements in planning and evaluating technologies is the com- prehension of potential transfer and diffusion of technologies. Many studies explored technology transfer in different organizations. Anderson et al. [52] and Kim et al. [53] explored university technology transfer and identified efficiency differences among universities and potential causes for that. Daim and Kocaoglu [54] studied the technology acquisition in different geographies and identified commonalities and differences in approaches. While acquisition and transfer are planned technology transitions, there are other dynamics that we cannot control 100 % but try to influence. The main dynamic is the adoption of technologies by users. Many studied this in different sectorsandprovidedverypracticaltools.Sectorsandapplicationincludewireless devices in health care [55], diet software [56] online flight reservation systems [57], and enterprise resource planning (Fig. 1.4, [58, 59]). 1.4 Book Content The chapters of this book provide examples of technology planning, evaluation, and diffusion.
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