Strategic Housing Market Assessment and Strategic Housing Market Assessment Addendum

221 Pages·2016·1.61 MB·English

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City of York Council
Strategic Housing Market Assessment

June 2016

Prepared by

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280 High Holborn
London WC1V 7EE

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City of York Council, June 2016
Strategic Housing Market Assessment

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Contents

Section Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
1. INTRODUCTION 17
2 DEFINING THE HOUSING MARKET AREA 24
3 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HOUSING MARKET 50
4 DEMOGRAPHIC LED PROJECTIONS 60
5 ECONOMIC-LED HOUSING NEEDS 84
6 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED 88
7 THE ROLE OF STARTER HOMES 116
8 MARKET SIGNALS 129
9 NEED FOR DIFFERENT SIZES AND TYPES (TENURES) OF HOMES 159
10 SPECIALIST HOUSING NEEDS 171
11 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 200

List of Figures
FIGURE 1: OVERVIEW OF APPROACH TO GENERATING A HOUSING TARGET 22
FIGURE 2: FRAMEWORK HOUSING MARKET AREAS COVERING YORKSHIRE AND
THE HUMBER AREA 28
FIGURE 3: CURDS – DEFINED LOCAL HOUSING MARKET AREA 29
FIGURE 4: CURDS – DEFINED SINGLE-TIER HOUSING MARKET AREAS 30
FIGURE 5: NORTH YORKSHIRE SUB- REGIONAL MARKET AREA 31
FIGURE 6: HOUSING MARKET SUB AREAS WITHIN NORTH YORKSHIRE 32
FIGURE 7: UNDERSTANDING HOUSING DEMAND DRIVERS 33
FIGURE 8: ALL SALES (2014) 35
FIGURE 9: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE (1998 -2013) 37

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FIGURE 10: GROSS MIGRATION FLOWS (2011) 39
FIGURE 11: NET FLOW (2011) 41
FIGURE 12: 2011 TTWA 45
FIGURE 13: TENURE PROFILE (2011) 51
FIGURE 14: TENURE PROFILE: YORK SUB- AREA BREAKDOWN (2011) 52
FIGURE 15: PROFILE OF STOCK BY TYPE (2011) 53
FIGURE 16: PROFILE STOCK BY TYPE: YORK SUB- AREA BREAKDOWN (2011) 54
FIGURE 17: OCCUPATIONS (2011) 59
FIGURE 18: INDEXED POPULATION GROWTH (1981-2014) 62
FIGURE 19: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2014 – YORK 63
FIGURE 20: POPULATION AGE PROFILE (2014) 64
FIGURE 21: PAST AND PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH – YORK 67
FIGURE 22: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE, MID-2001 TO MID-2032 – YORK 68
FIGURE 23: PAST AND PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH – YORK 76
FIGURE 24: PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD FORMATION RATES BY AGE OF HEAD OF
HOUSEHOLD – YORK 79
FIGURE 25: PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD FORMATION RATES BY AGE OF HEAD OF
HOUSEHOLD –YORK (COMPARING FIGURES FROM STAGE 1 AND STAGE
2 OF THE CLG 2012-BASED HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS) 81
FIGURE 26: PAST AND PROJECTED NUMBER OF JOBS (1991-2037) – BY LOCAL
AUTHORITY 85
FIGURE 27: PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH – YORK (RANGE OF SCENARIOS) 86
FIGURE 28: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN YORK 95
FIGURE 29: OVERVIEW OF BASIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL 96
FIGURE 30: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (COMPARING
THIS SHMA WITH THE 2011 SHMA) 107
FIGURE 31: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED
HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – YORK 119
FIGURE 32: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE (1998-2007) 129
FIGURE 33: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE (2008-2013) 130
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FIGURE 34: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE (2013-2014) 131
FIGURE 35: INDEXED ANALYSIS OF SALES TRENDS (1998 – 2014) 132
FIGURE 36: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES (2014) 133
FIGURE 37: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES: YORK SUB- AREA BREAKDOWN (2014) 134
FIGURE 38: BENCHMARKED TREND IN MEDIAN PRIVATE RENTAL VALUES (SEP 2011 –
MARCH 2015) 135
FIGURE 39: TREND IN PRIVATE RENTAL TRANSACTIONS (SEP 2011 – SEP 2014) 136
FIGURE 40: LOWER QUARTILE AFFORDABILITY TREND (1997-2015) 137
FIGURE 41: ANNUAL EARNINGS (GROSS) OF FULL TIME WORKERS BY PLACE OF
RESIDENCE (2014) 138
FIGURE 42: CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS BY TENURE (2001-11) 139
FIGURE 43: NUMBERS ACCEPTED AS BEING HOMELESS AND IN PRIORITY NEED
PER 1,000 (2004-2015) 140
FIGURE 44: YORK – HOUSING SUPPLY VS TARGET (2006/07 – 2013/14) 141
FIGURE 45: PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD FORMATION RATES FOR THOSE AGED 25-34 –
YORK – BASED ON CLG STAGE 1 PROJECTIONS 156
FIGURE 46: STAGES IN THE HOUSING MARKET MODEL 160
FIGURE 47: AVERAGE BEDROOMS BY AGE, SEX AND TENURE – YORK 161
FIGURE 48: SIZE OF HOUSING REQUIRED 2012 TO 2032 – YORK 165
FIGURE 49: OVERLAP BETWEEN AFFORDABLE HOUSING TENURES 168
FIGURE 50: POPULATION WITH LONG-TERM HEALTH PROBLEM OR DISABILITY IN
EACH AGE BAND 174
FIGURE 51: TENURE OF OLDER PERSON HOUSEHOLDS – YORK 176
FIGURE 52: TRENDS IN STUDENT NUMBERS, UNIVERSITY OF YORK, 2002-14 180
FIGURE 53: GROWTH IN FULL TIME STUDENTS AT UNIVERSITY OF YORK, 2002-14 181
FIGURE 54: TRENDS IN STUDENT NUMBERS, YORK ST JOHN UNIVERSITY, 2002-14 183
FIGURE 55: GROWTH IN FULL TIME STUDENTS AT YORK ST JOHN UNIVERSITY,
2002-14 184
FIGURE 56: OVERSEAS STUDENTS, YORK UNIVERSITIES, 2002/03 – 2013/14 185
FIGURE 57: TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION TO CITY OF YORK, 2001/02 –
2013/14 186
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FIGURE 58: RELATING GROWTH IN INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS AT UNIVERSITIES IN
YORK AND OVERALL INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION TO YORK, 2003/04 TO
2013/14 187
FIGURE 59: NATIONAL INSURANCE REGISTRATIONS FOR OVERSEAS NATIONALS,
YORK 2002-2014 188
FIGURE 60: CHANGES IN DOMESTIC STUDENT POPULATION 189
FIGURE 61: PROFILE OF STUDENTS AGED 16 AND OVER IN YORK, 2011 190
FIGURE 62: PROFILE OF STUDENTS BY AGE AND HOUSEHOLD TYPE IN YORK, 2011 191
FIGURE 63: COMPOSITION OF PER ANNUM HOUSING NEED IN THE CITY OF YORK
(2012-2032) 206

List of Tables
TABLE 1: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES BY TYPE AND LOCAL AUTHORITY (2014) 36
TABLE 2: MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE CHANGE OVER DIFFERENT PERIODS 38
TABLE 3: GROSS MIGRATION FLOWS (2011) 40
TABLE 4: MAJOR COMMUTING FLOWS FROM YORK, HAMBLETON AND RYEDALE (>
1%) (2011) 46
TABLE 5: MAJOR COMMUTING FLOWS TO YORK, HAMBLETON AND RYEDALE
(>1%) (2011) 47
TABLE 6: HOUSE SIZE – NUMBER OF BEDROOMS (2011) 55
TABLE 7: HOUSE SIZE- NUMBER OF BEDROOMS: YORK SUB- AREA BREAKDOWN
(2011) 55
TABLE 8: OVERCROWDING AND UNDER-OCCUPATION (2011) 56
TABLE 9: OVERCROWDING AND UNDER-OCCUPATION: YORK SUB- AREA
BREAKDOWN (2011) 56
TABLE 10: VACANT AND SECOND HOMES (2014) 57
TABLE 11: POPULATION BY ETHNIC GROUP 58
TABLE 12: QUALIFICATIONS (2011) 58
TABLE 13: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE (2001-14) – YORK 64
TABLE 14: CHANGE IN AGE STRUCTURE 2001 TO 2014 – YORK 65
TABLE 15: CHANGE IN AGE STRUCTURE 2001 TO 2014 65
TABLE 16: PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH (2012-2032) 66
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TABLE 17: POPULATION CHANGE 2012 TO 2032 BY FIFTEEN-YEAR AGE BANDS
(2012-BASED SNPP) – YORK 69
TABLE 18: POPULATION CHANGE 2012 TO 2032 BY FIFTEEN-YEAR AGE BANDS
(2012-BASED SNPP) 70
TABLE 19: PAST TRENDS IN INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION – DATA
FEEDING INTO SUBNATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS –YORK 72
TABLE 20: PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH (2012-2032) – ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS 73
TABLE 21: PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH (2012-2032) – ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS 75
TABLE 22: PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2012-32 – RANGE OF DEMOGRAPHIC
BASED SCENARIOS 82
TABLE 23: EMPLOYMENT INCREASE (2012-31) – RANGE OF FORECASTS 84
TABLE 24: PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2012-32 – RANGE OF ECONOMIC
BASED SCENARIOS 87
TABLE 25: LOWER QUARTILE SALES PRICES BY TYPE (YEAR TO MARCH 2015) 92
TABLE 26: LOWER QUARTILE MONTHLY PRIVATE RENTS (YEAR TO MARCH 2015) 92
TABLE 27: MAIN SOURCES FOR ASSESSING THE CURRENT UNMET NEED FOR
AFFORDABLE HOUSING 98
TABLE 28: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN UNSUITABLE HOUSING 99
TABLE 29: UNSUITABLE HOUSING BY TENURE AND NUMBERS TO TAKE FORWARD
INTO AFFORDABILITY MODELLING 100
TABLE 30: ESTIMATED CURRENT NEED 101
TABLE 31: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED FROM NEWLY
FORMING HOUSEHOLDS (PER ANNUM) 102
TABLE 32: ANALYSIS OF PAST SOCIAL/AFFORDABLE RENTED HOUSING SUPPLY
(PER ANNUM – PAST 3 YEARS – 2012-15) 103
TABLE 33: SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING 104
TABLE 34: ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED 104
TABLE 35: ESTIMATED LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED (PER ANNUM) AT
VARIANT INCOME THRESHOLDS 105
TABLE 36: ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED WITH
DIFFERENT CURRENT NEED ‘CLEARANCE’ PERIODS (ALL FIGURES PER
ANNUM) 106
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TABLE 37: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS) – YORK 117
TABLE 38: CHANGE IN TENURE 2001-11 (ALL HOUSEHOLDS AGED UNDER 35) –
YORK 118
TABLE 39: CHANGE IN PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTED
HOUSING (2001-11) BY AGE – YORK 120
TABLE 40: ESTIMATED CURRENT TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES – YORK 120
TABLE 41: ESTIMATED PROJECTED TARGET GROUP FOR STARTER HOMES (PER
ANNUM) – YORK 121
TABLE 42: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS REQUIRED TO ACCESS STARTER HOMES
UNDER A RANGE OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS – YORK 122
TABLE 43: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE (UNITED KINGDOM) 123
TABLE 44: ESTIMATED INCOME LEVELS BY AGE FOR STARTER HOMES TARGET
GROUP – YORK 124
TABLE 45: AFFORDABILITY OF STARTER HOMES BY AGE BAND AND LEVEL OF
DISCOUNT 125
TABLE 46: ESTIMATED CURRENT MARKET FOR STARTER HOMES – SCENARIO A 125
TABLE 47: ESTIMATED FUTURE MARKET FOR STARTER HOMES (PER ANNUM) –
SCENARIO A 126
TABLE 48: ESTIMATED ANNUAL NEED FOR STARTER HOMES (TO 2032) 126
TABLE 49: PROPORTION OF OVERALL HOUSING NEED POTENTIALLY MET BY
STARTER HOMES 126
TABLE 50: COMPARISON OF LOWER QUARTILE AND MEDIAN AFFORDABILITY (2015) 137
TABLE 51: CHANGE IN OVERCROWDED HOUSEHOLDS (2001-2011) 139
TABLE 52: CHANGE IN CONCEALED HOUSEHOLDS (2001-2011) 140
TABLE 53: PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2012-32 – 2012-BASED SNPP AND AS
UPDATED BY REFERENCE TO 2013/14 MID-YEAR POPULATION
ESTIMATES) AND 2012-BASED HEADSHIP RATES – WITH MARKET
SIGNALS UPLIFT – STAGE 1 HEADSHIP RATES 157
TABLE 54: ESTIMATED PROFILE OF DWELLINGS IN 2012 BY SIZE – YORK 162
TABLE 55: ESTIMATED SIZE OF DWELLINGS NEEDED 2012 TO 2032 – MARKET
HOUSING – YORK 163
TABLE 56: ESTIMATED SIZE OF DWELLINGS REQUIRED 2012 TO 2032 –
AFFORDABLE HOUSING – YORK 164
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TABLE 57: ESTIMATED DWELLING REQUIREMENT BY NUMBER OF BEDROOMS (2012
TO 2032) – YORK 164
TABLE 58: GROSS NEED FOR INTERMEDIATE AFFORDABLE HOUSING 169
TABLE 59: OLDER PERSON POPULATION (2014) 172
TABLE 60: PROJECTED CHANGE IN POPULATION OF OLDER PERSONS (2012 TO
2032) 172
TABLE 61: ESTIMATED POPULATION CHANGE FOR RANGE OF HEALTH ISSUES
(2012 TO 2032) 173
TABLE 62: HOUSEHOLDS AND PEOPLE WITH LONG-TERM HEALTH PROBLEM OR
DISABILITY (2011) 173
TABLE 63: ESTIMATED CHANGE IN POPULATION WITH LTHPD (2012-32) 174
TABLE 64: CURRENT SUPPLY OF SPECIALIST HOUSING FOR OLDER PEOPLE 175
TABLE 65: PROJECTED NEED FOR SPECIALIST HOUSING FOR OLDER PEOPLE
(2012-32) 175
TABLE 66: POTENTIAL NEED FOR RESIDENTIAL CARE HOUSING 178
TABLE 67: CHANGES IN FULL-TIME STUDENTS AGED 18-74 IN CITY OF YORK, 2001-
11 179
TABLE 68: CHANGES IN STUDENT NUMBERS AT UNIVERSITY OF YORK, 2010/11 TO
2013/14 182
TABLE 69: CHANGES IN STUDENT NUMBERS AT YORK ST JOHN UNIVERSITY,
2010/11 TO 2013/14 184
TABLE 70: PROFILE OF STUDENTS BY AGE AND HOUSEHOLD TYPE IN YORK, 2011 191
TABLE 71: CHANGES IN STUDENTS BY DIFFERENT ACCOMMODATION TYPES, 2001-
11 192
TABLE 72: CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD REFERENCE PERSONS WHO ARE FULL-TIME
STUDENTS, 2001-11 193
TABLE 73: NEED FOR DIFFERENT SIZES OF HOMES ACROSS YORK 207

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