Strategic Defences and the Future of the Arms Race

296 Pages·1987·24.292 MB·English

by  John Holdren, Joseph Rotblat (eds.)

OTHER PUGWASH PUBLICATIONS
Preventing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (C. F. Barnaby, ed., Souvenir
Press, 1968)
Implications of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (C. F. Barnaby and
A. Boserup, eds, Souvenir Press, 1969)
Impact of New Technologies on the Arms Race (B. T. Feld, T. Greenwood,
G. W. Rathjens and S. Weinberg, eds, The Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, 1971)
J. Rotblat, Scientists in the Quest for Peace: a History of the Pugwash
Conferences (The MIT Press, 1972)
Pugwash on Self-Reliance (W. K. Chagula, B. T. Feld and A. Parthasarathi,
eds, Ankur Publishing House, 1977)
A New Design for Nuclear Disarmament (W. Epstein and T. Toyoda, eds,
Spokesman, 1977)
International Arrangements for Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing (A. Chayes and
W. Bennett Lewis, eds, Ballinger, 1977)
Feeding Africa (Pan-African Pugwash Group, 1978)
The Dangers of Nuclear War (F. Griffiths and J. C. Polanyi, eds, University
of Toronto Press, 1979)
Appropriate Technology and Social Values (F. A. Long and A. Oleson, eds,
Ballinger, 1980)
New Directions in Disarmament (W. Epstein and B. T. Feld, eds, Praeger,
1981)
European Security, Nuclear Weapons and Public Confidence (W. Gut
teridge, ed., Macmillan, 1982)
Scientists, the Arms Race and Disarmament (J. Rotblat, ed., Taylor and
Francis, 1982)
Proceedings of the First Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs
(J. Rotblat, ed., Pugwash Council, 1982)
The Dangers of New Weapon Systems (W. Gutteridge and T. Taylor, eds,
Macmillan, 1983)
The Arms Race at a Time of Decision: Annals of Pugwash 1983 (J. Rotblat
and A. Pascolini, eds, Macmillan, 1984)
Nuclear Strategy and World Security: Annals of Pugwash 1984 (J. Rotblat
and S. Hellman, eds, Macmillan, 1985)
World Peace and the Developing countries: Annals of Pugwash 1985
(J. Rotblat and U. D'Ambrosio, eds, Macmillan, 1986)
Strategic Defences and the Future of the Arms Race: A Pugwash Symposium
(J. Holdren and J. Rotblat, eds, Macmillan, 1987)
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STRATEGIC DEFENCES
AND THE FUTURE OF
THE ARMS RACE
A Pugwash Symposium
Edited by
JOHN HOLDREN
Professor of Energy and Resources
University of California, Berkeley
Chairman, US Pugwash Group
and
JOSEPH ROTBLAT
Emeritus Professor of Physics
University of London
Chairman, British Pugwash Group
Foreword by Lord Zuckerman
M
PALGRAVE
MACMILLAN
© Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs 1987
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission
of this publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied
or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance
with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended).
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to
this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and
civil claims for damages.
First published 1987
Published by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Strategic defences and the future of the
arms race: a Pugwash symposium).
1. Strategic Defense Initiative
I. Holdren, John II. Rotblat, Joseph
Ill. Pugwash (Peace movement)
358' .8'0973 UG743
ISBN 978-0-333-44874-8 ISBN 978-1-349-18675-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-18675-4
Contents
Foreword: Lord Zuckerman Vll
Preface: Editors lX
Notes on the Contributors XV
Acronyms xviii
PART ONE: THE PUG WASH SYMPOSIUM
1 Pugwash Executive Strategic Defences: Technological 3
Committee Aspects; Political and Military
Implications
2 John Holdren The Pugwash Symposium on Strategic 11
Defences: An Overview.
PART TWO: TECHNOLOGICAL ASPECTS
3 Roald Sagdeev and Space-Strike Arms and International 37
Andrei Kokoshin Security
4 Alexander Flax What is SDI? 80
5 Denis Hall Lasers for Ballistic Missile Defence 87
An Update
6 George Hutchinson Software Aspects of SDI 92
7 Ashton Carter ASATandBMD 96
PART THREE: STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL ASPECTS
8 Raymond Garthoff Strategic Defences and United 105
States-Soviet Relations
9 Evgenii Velikhov Weaponisation of Space 115
10 Rudolf Peierls What Would be the Benefits of SDI if 119
Successful?
11 John Beckman Star Wars: Defensive Shield or First Strike 123
Capability?
PART FOUR: THE EUROPEAN DIMENSION
12 Rip Bulkeley Missile Defence in NATO Europe 131
13 Lawrence Freedman British Attitudes on SDI 143
14 Klaus Gottstein The Debate on SDI in the Federal 151
Republic of Germany
15 Elmar Schmiihling Prospects and Possible Consequences for 162
Defence in Central Europe
16 Caesar Voute War or Peace in Space? The European 166
Dilemma
17 Bhupendra Jasani EUREKA-How much of a European SDI? 171
18 John Polanyi NORAD and the SDI-A Canadian View 179
19 John Pike Barriers to Allied Participation in SDI 184
PART FIVE: LEGAL ASPECTS AND SPECIFIC PROPOSALS
20 Abram Chayes Interpretations of the ABM Treaty 201
21 Horst Fischer The Military Use of Space and the 204
International Legal System
22 Maxwell Bruce Legal Rules for Space 216
23 Martin Kaplan On the Question of 'Research' in the 220
Strategic Defence Initiative and the
ABMTreaty
24 Alexander Flax Limited ASAT Treaties in relation to 223
the ABM Treaty
25 Donald Hafner and An Arms Control Proposal Limiting 226
Bhupendra Jasani High-Altitude ASAT Weapons
26 John Beckman Resume of the Discussion on Strategic 240
Defences
APPENDICES
A Text of ABM Treaty 255
B Text of Outer Space Treaty 268
C List of Participants in the Symposium 275
Index 278
Foreword
Lord Zuckerman
It is ironical that the speculation which still clouds the
outcome of the Reykjavik summit of October 1986 should make
the appearance of this Pugwash monograph even more opportune
than it had already promised to be. The book does not delve
into the technological problems on whose solution the future
of President Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative depends.
But it is undoubtedly unique in the breadth of its sweep, and
in the way it deals with the strategic, legal, and political
implications of the President's dream, as seen through
American, European and Russian eyes. What is worth noting,
too, is that most of the essays which make up the volume were
written by people who have been officially involved in their
respective countries in the elaboration of policies that
impinge on the nuclear arms race. The result is a sophisti
cated account, free from polemic, of the major obstacles that
now impede progress in arms-control negotiations between the
two superpowers.
Clearly the most important is the clash between the
President's belief that it is worth spending billions of
dollars, over what may be decades, to devise a space-based
defensive system that would be able to destroy all warheads
aimed at the United States, and Mr Gorbachev's conviction
that however laudable its aim, SDI is not only technically
unachievable but, more important, that its pursuit will
inevitably drive the nuclear arms race into space. The view
of the majority of uncommitted scientists and engineers, not
only in the United States but in the world over, and of a
sizeable proportion of the American Congress as well as of
its Office of Technology Assessment, is that the Russian
leader has a more realistic appreciation of the techni
calities than has the President. Whether nuclear warheads
become space weapons in defiance of the Outer Space Treaty of
1967 and the ABM Treaty of 1972, will therefore now depend on
the wisdom and caution of both leaders in the months ahead.
Nuclear weapons are not instruments that can help settle
- vii -
viii FOREWORD
disputes between good guys and bad guys. However a nuclear
exchange were initiated, both sides would be running the risk
of extermination. Moreover, as the monograph makes plain,
weapons designated as defensive can also be used in an
offensive role. Indeed, space platforms from which nuclear
fire could be directed at enemy targets were one of the many
ideas for strategic nuclear systems that were being discussed
in the United States as far back as the late fifties. What we
dare not forget now is that the continued and unnecessary
elaboration of nuclear arsenals adds increasing emphasis to
the fact that they lack any precise military utility. They
can deter. They can destroy. But their use cannot be
con trolled.
Unless the deadlock in arms-control negotiations is broken,
and broken soon, Reykjavik is a warning that the stabilit~
that prevails so precariously in the nuclear arena is bound
to be shattered. That is something which concerns all of us,
not just the two superpowers. It is to be hoped, therefore,
that the views and ideas ventilated in this monograph will
help point a way from the potential horror towards which the
nuclear arms race is driving us all.
October 1986
Preface
In the interval between the Pugwash Symposium on Strategic
Defences in London on 5-8 December 1985 and the completion of
this volume based on that meeting, much has happened but
little has changed. Formal agreements to cooperate in
research on strategic defence have been concluded between the
government of the United States and those of the United
Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany, and Israel; the
Reagan Administration's Fiscal Year (FY) 1987 budget request
has sought an 80 per cent increase of funds for the Strategic
Defence Initiative over those authorised in FY1986; the
explosion of the space shuttle Challenger and the reactor
accident at Chernobyl have provided painful reminders of the
fragility of complex technologies in East and West alike; and
a flurry of arms-control proposals, counter-proposals, and
pronouncements from the Soviet Union and the United States
have alternately raised and lowered hopes that a new phase of
the arms race can be avoided.
Even as the Symposium was taking place in early December,
Her Majesty's Government was signing the agreement to
collaborate formally with the United States in research on
strategic defence. Similar agreements with the Federal
Republic of Germany and with Israel were soon to follow, and
others with Italy and Japan are thought to be imminent. As
John Pike points out in his paper ( pp.184-97), the signifi
cance of these agreements as symbols of solidarity in defence
issues is likely to exceed their importance as conduits of
funds or major technological cooperation. Indeed, the
expectation that these agreements will result in large
contracts is far from being fulfilled. Talks of $1.5 billion
worth of work in the UK turned out to be completely
unfounded; the contracts already signed or soon to be placed
amount to a total of about $25 million, most of this to
government establishments. In the FRG the contracts announced
so far amount to about $30 million.
The Reagan administration's request for $5.4 billion in
- ix -